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471
Misc
2025 Oct 14, 6:53am
Fortwaye says
How old were you when you bought your 1st house ???
I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.
How old were you when you bought your 1st house ???
472
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 14, 9:06am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 14, 9:06am
Misc says
Fortwaye says
Aren’t they still in high school?
The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.
473
mell
2025 Oct 14, 9:19am
Fortwaye says
Agreed it's too optimistic. There are some who made money in crypto and dividends early on but the majority doesn't have the buying power.
Misc says
Fortwaye says
Aren’t they still in high school?
The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.
I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.
Agreed it's too optimistic. There are some who made money in crypto and dividends early on but the majority doesn't have the buying power.
474
Glock-n-Load
2025 Oct 14, 10:48am
MolotovCocktail says
But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)
GNL says
Are home prices declining yet?
50% of states so far.
But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)
475
RC2006
2025 Oct 14, 1:17pm
RC2006
2025 Oct 14, 1:17pm
My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.
476
Blue
2025 Oct 14, 1:32pm
RC2006 says
Recently I saw 5% down payment at a new construction site in south Bay Area. Like I mentioned in one of my above posts 20:80 rule, housing became novelty and not for everyone like in the old days. At this point, I suspect every major country falls into this category because of the modern monetary policy! Young people life is stolen by their parents and parasite governments by design. This is very sad situation.
My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.
Recently I saw 5% down payment at a new construction site in south Bay Area. Like I mentioned in one of my above posts 20:80 rule, housing became novelty and not for everyone like in the old days. At this point, I suspect every major country falls into this category because of the modern monetary policy! Young people life is stolen by their parents and parasite governments by design. This is very sad situation.
477
WookieMan
2025 Oct 14, 1:42pm
WookieMan
2025 Oct 14, 1:42pm
RC2006 says
They're not getting fucked. They want to live in places they cannot afford. It's simple math and data.
Coal Valley, IL (not near where I live). Close to interstates and 4 decent sized cities, so there's work. A regional airport with commercial flights. Low traffic. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/108-W-15th-Ave-Coal-Valley-IL-61240/207346004_zpid/
But no. People want to live in CA, FL, Denver, Austin, Nashville, etc. You could get that house for $170-175k negotiating. There are houses for young people everywhere, that's not an excuse. A $35k/yr teacher and $35k/yr landscaper could pay that easily on the 3x income rule if they don't have debt.
That's a perfectly fine starter home that likely needs some work, but that's part of growing up and what real men and even women do. You put in work before you have kids.
I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal spots and then bitch about affordability. When you're 24 your're not going to the Westin on St. John USVI at $6-7k/wk and another $3k on eating out. That's likely 10-20% of your income after tax. Go to the Panhandle of FL and get a condo for $1,200/wk and make your own meals. Guess what you can have the same fun.
When you become wealthy then have the good things. In the meantime live within your means. Buy low, fix up and sell higher. If you're a man that has no skills than that's ultimately your fault. Can't blame prices. You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.
They're not getting fucked. They want to live in places they cannot afford. It's simple math and data.
Coal Valley, IL (not near where I live). Close to interstates and 4 decent sized cities, so there's work. A regional airport with commercial flights. Low traffic. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/108-W-15th-Ave-Coal-Valley-IL-61240/207346004_zpid/
But no. People want to live in CA, FL, Denver, Austin, Nashville, etc. You could get that house for $170-175k negotiating. There are houses for young people everywhere, that's not an excuse. A $35k/yr teacher and $35k/yr landscaper could pay that easily on the 3x income rule if they don't have debt.
That's a perfectly fine starter home that likely needs some work, but that's part of growing up and what real men and even women do. You put in work before you have kids.
I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal spots and then bitch about affordability. When you're 24 your're not going to the Westin on St. John USVI at $6-7k/wk and another $3k on eating out. That's likely 10-20% of your income after tax. Go to the Panhandle of FL and get a condo for $1,200/wk and make your own meals. Guess what you can have the same fun.
When you become wealthy then have the good things. In the meantime live within your means. Buy low, fix up and sell higher. If you're a man that has no skills than that's ultimately your fault. Can't blame prices. You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
478
Blue
2025 Oct 14, 9:01pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026
Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.
San Francisco's housing market 2026
Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.
479
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2025 Oct 15, 4:03am
Blue says
RE in my state went down about 20%, I don't know if correction will continue, probably. I kind of hope it keeps crashing so regular folks can afford housing. The harder it gets to buy, the more crapy apartments builders build to earn rental income, I hate seeing that. Our entire state propped up by illegals renting and all cash boomers moving in and retiring to live in cheaper cost of living. Once blue state exodus stops, real estate here will likely nose dive, as there are no jobs here outside farm work which is done often by illegals or seasonal workers.
Years ago there were those informercials telling seniors to move to some middle of nowhere, and how it'll be up and coming future. And after few years it all crashes and burns because there is nothing there anyway. Red states right now remind me of that a lot. Everyone (including myself) moved here, in a few years it'll be a massive crash I think.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026
Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.
RE in my state went down about 20%, I don't know if correction will continue, probably. I kind of hope it keeps crashing so regular folks can afford housing. The harder it gets to buy, the more crapy apartments builders build to earn rental income, I hate seeing that. Our entire state propped up by illegals renting and all cash boomers moving in and retiring to live in cheaper cost of living. Once blue state exodus stops, real estate here will likely nose dive, as there are no jobs here outside farm work which is done often by illegals or seasonal workers.
Years ago there were those informercials telling seniors to move to some middle of nowhere, and how it'll be up and coming future. And after few years it all crashes and burns because there is nothing there anyway. Red states right now remind me of that a lot. Everyone (including myself) moved here, in a few years it'll be a massive crash I think.
480
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2025 Oct 15, 5:43am
CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/la-county-declares-state-emergency-over-ice-raids-will-pay-rent-provide-legal-aid
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/la-county-declares-state-emergency-over-ice-raids-will-pay-rent-provide-legal-aid
481
HeadSet
2025 Oct 15, 7:30am
HeadSet
2025 Oct 15, 7:30am
Fortwaye says
How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.
CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.
How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.
482
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 15, 8:56am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 15, 8:56am
Glock-n-Load says
WookieMan says
MolotovCocktail says
GNL says
Are home prices declining yet?
50% of states so far.
But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)
WookieMan says
I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal...You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
484
Glock-n-Load
2025 Oct 15, 9:06am
HeadSet says
Constitutional? Too funny. Endless unconstitutional shit has been going on. It’s a power struggle, the constitution be damned.
Fortwaye says
CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.
How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.
Constitutional? Too funny. Endless unconstitutional shit has been going on. It’s a power struggle, the constitution be damned.
485
Ceffer
2025 Oct 17, 2:46pm
Ceffer
2025 Oct 17, 2:46pm
Even infallible Santa Cruz is showing signs of softening. The schools around where we have our place are obviously showing many fewer babmbinos. The illegals would come over here and use false addresses to send to the schools, and, of course, the KommieKunt Teacher's Union gave their blessing.
486
AD
2025 Oct 17, 3:02pm
AD
2025 Oct 17, 3:02pm
MolotovCocktail says
or the heirs to these homes (young Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?
.
or the heirs to these homes (young Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?
.
487
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 20, 10:45pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 20, 10:45pm
AD says
Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.
Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?
Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.
488
AD
2025 Oct 20, 11:30pm
AD
2025 Oct 20, 11:30pm
MolotovCocktail says
Yes, as a senior citizen born in 1930 has a home valued $1 million in 2023 (and valued for $300,000 in 2002), and then their Gen X heir inherits it in 2025 and would be happy to sell it for $700,000 (hence about 4% annual appreciation from 2002 to 2025).
AD says
Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?
Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.
Yes, as a senior citizen born in 1930 has a home valued $1 million in 2023 (and valued for $300,000 in 2002), and then their Gen X heir inherits it in 2025 and would be happy to sell it for $700,000 (hence about 4% annual appreciation from 2002 to 2025).
489
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 9:35am
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 9:35am
AD says
Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market. Had a childhood friend that was a widow and got killed walking the dog by a car. Son moved into a paid off house.
My past house my mom bought. Never hit the market. Boomers are also a bit more financially savvy than their previous generations. My mom bought the house in a trust. I get the house back when she dies. So by default I still kind of own it unless I die first. I just can't borrow against it, but it will probably be a $400k asset in 20 years paid off.
Point being is there's a shadow inventory no one knows about. People are also smarter about realtors. I avoided $15k in commissions and another $1,500 in attorney fees overall selling to my mom. Most data is taken from MLS data. What you don't see, you don't know.
The kids that sell at a lower price are like your classic lottery winner. They're greedy and will blow all the money and just wanted it now. I think that's a tiny fraction of home sales. Most smart people want the most money or just move into the inherited property. Plus there's a good chance the house is in shitty shape if the parents were 70-90. So the house may be worth less money and not the kid willing to take less.
MolotovCocktail says
AD says
Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?
Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.
Yes, as a senior citizen born in 1930 has a home valued $1 million in 2023 (and valued for $300,000 in 2002), and then their Gen X heir inherits it in 2025 and would be happy to sell it for $700,000 (hence about 4% annual appreciation from 2002 to 2025).
Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market. Had a childhood friend that was a widow and got killed walking the dog by a car. Son moved into a paid off house.
My past house my mom bought. Never hit the market. Boomers are also a bit more financially savvy than their previous generations. My mom bought the house in a trust. I get the house back when she dies. So by default I still kind of own it unless I die first. I just can't borrow against it, but it will probably be a $400k asset in 20 years paid off.
Point being is there's a shadow inventory no one knows about. People are also smarter about realtors. I avoided $15k in commissions and another $1,500 in attorney fees overall selling to my mom. Most data is taken from MLS data. What you don't see, you don't know.
The kids that sell at a lower price are like your classic lottery winner. They're greedy and will blow all the money and just wanted it now. I think that's a tiny fraction of home sales. Most smart people want the most money or just move into the inherited property. Plus there's a good chance the house is in shitty shape if the parents were 70-90. So the house may be worth less money and not the kid willing to take less.
491
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 21, 10:12am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 21, 10:12am
WookieMan says
Something 71% of homes inherited are sold nu the heirs. Currently.
Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market.
Something 71% of homes inherited are sold nu the heirs. Currently.
492
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 21, 10:27am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 21, 10:27am
Glock-n-Load says
That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.
You act like 4% price growth is written law.
That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.
493
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 10:49am
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 10:49am
1930 Gold = $20.67. Gold right now = $4125. So that means gold has a yearly growth rate of 5.73%/annum.
494
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 10:52am
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 10:52am
Glock-n-Load says
It's not, but it definitely trends around that amount. I wouldn't expect it every year. If you're planning for retirement when you're 35, 4% is probably a safe bet over 30 years to expect that appreciation. Hopefully paid off and tax free if you sell.
Renting could be cheaper, but if you don't invest the savings you'll be more broke than owning. And also have to deal with the risk of moving not at will and not customizing your space. And most repairs are trivial when owning or are 10-30 year events and insurance may cover it.
You act like 4% price growth is written law.
It's not, but it definitely trends around that amount. I wouldn't expect it every year. If you're planning for retirement when you're 35, 4% is probably a safe bet over 30 years to expect that appreciation. Hopefully paid off and tax free if you sell.
Renting could be cheaper, but if you don't invest the savings you'll be more broke than owning. And also have to deal with the risk of moving not at will and not customizing your space. And most repairs are trivial when owning or are 10-30 year events and insurance may cover it.
495
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 10:56am
WookieMan
2025 Oct 21, 10:56am
MolotovCocktail says
Link?
WookieMan says
That 71% of inherited homes might be 1% of the overall housing market. Need to back that up with data if you state that. I gave two examples and I know of more personally and from my real estate years. No one wants to pay a realtor when selling. So the data on inherited homes cannot be tracked like other sales.
WookieMan says
Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market.
Something 71% of homes inherited are sold nu the heirs. Currently.
Link?
WookieMan says
Point being is there's a shadow inventory no one knows about.
That 71% of inherited homes might be 1% of the overall housing market. Need to back that up with data if you state that. I gave two examples and I know of more personally and from my real estate years. No one wants to pay a realtor when selling. So the data on inherited homes cannot be tracked like other sales.
496
Blue
2025 Oct 21, 11:24am
MolotovCocktail says
I know someone at East Bay Area, CA experiencing 5%/year decline for the last 3 years. He is having hard time to sell. Cases like this are not uncommon. But slow and steady steamrolling inflation brings the RE market up in the long run. You can’t argue with criminal enterprise governments and their free printing press. Because they want to “help” people 😜
Glock-n-Load says
You act like 4% price growth is written law.
That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.
I know someone at East Bay Area, CA experiencing 5%/year decline for the last 3 years. He is having hard time to sell. Cases like this are not uncommon. But slow and steady steamrolling inflation brings the RE market up in the long run. You can’t argue with criminal enterprise governments and their free printing press. Because they want to “help” people 😜
497
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 11:27am
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 11:27am
Blue says
Yes, I understand. What got my goat was thinking there's some kind of norm. It's all over the place and depends on which 20(?) or whatever consecutive years you use.
MolotovCocktail says
Glock-n-Load says
You act like 4% price growth is written law.
That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.
I know someone at East Bay Area, CA experiencing 5%/year decline for the last 3 years. He is having hard time to sell. Cases like this are not uncommon. But slow and steady steamrolling inflation brings the RE market up in the long run. You can’t argue with criminal enterprise governments and their free printing press. Because they want to “help” people 😜
Yes, I understand. What got my goat was thinking there's some kind of norm. It's all over the place and depends on which 20(?) or whatever consecutive years you use.
498
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 11:28am
GNL
2025 Oct 21, 11:28am
We could go back to the beginning of time and determine the average daily temperature also but, that won't tell us jack shit.
500
Blue
2025 Oct 21, 12:01pm
Btw, the person I mentioned above bought during scamdamic peak prices. Seller put a home depot lipstick on $1.1m old shack sold for $1.5m. Poor guy bought out of social pressure.
501
AD
2025 Oct 21, 6:57pm
AD
2025 Oct 21, 6:57pm
Glock-n-Load says
Long-term, real appreciation
Negligible growth: Robert Shiller's data shows that between 1890 and 2019, national housing prices grew by less than 0.6% per year in real terms (after adjusting for inflation), which he calls "pitiful" compared to the ~7% real return of the S&P 500.
"Fad" of housing as an investment: The idea of housing as a great investment was a fad, especially after the early 2000s, and he does not expect it to return with the same force.
Other factors: The low long-term growth is partly because the stock market has delivered significantly higher real returns.
Factors that suppress home appreciation
Maintenance and depreciation: Homes require maintenance, depreciate, and can go out of style, which are problems that stocks do not face.
Technical progress: New homes are constantly being built to higher standards, which affects the value of older homes.
Supply: The constant construction of new homes has historically been a factor keeping prices from appreciating significantly in real terms.
You act like 4% price growth is written law.
Long-term, real appreciation
Negligible growth: Robert Shiller's data shows that between 1890 and 2019, national housing prices grew by less than 0.6% per year in real terms (after adjusting for inflation), which he calls "pitiful" compared to the ~7% real return of the S&P 500.
"Fad" of housing as an investment: The idea of housing as a great investment was a fad, especially after the early 2000s, and he does not expect it to return with the same force.
Other factors: The low long-term growth is partly because the stock market has delivered significantly higher real returns.
Factors that suppress home appreciation
Maintenance and depreciation: Homes require maintenance, depreciate, and can go out of style, which are problems that stocks do not face.
Technical progress: New homes are constantly being built to higher standards, which affects the value of older homes.
Supply: The constant construction of new homes has historically been a factor keeping prices from appreciating significantly in real terms.
502
Misc
2025 Oct 21, 10:51pm
Shiller fails to take into account the transaction costs of the stock market. You see about 97% of listed stocks in 1890 have gone belly up to be replaced with others, that have been replaced etc After factoring in other market frictions (not buying exactly as the indexes, the bid/ask spread, having to sell in a downs year), the real rate of return for the stock market is about 1% per year.
And don't forget those pesky taxes that accrue along the way when having to sell to get the new stocks.
And don't forget those pesky taxes that accrue along the way when having to sell to get the new stocks.
503
Misc
2025 Oct 22, 3:12am
You can tell people that long term Government bonds are yielding 2.25% over the rate of inflation, and that's an excellent long-term proposition, but people are greedy. They forecast short term trends out into the far future and they think they are more clever than a paltry interest rate.
504
WookieMan
2025 Oct 22, 7:16am
WookieMan
2025 Oct 22, 7:16am
AD says
This part is not true at all. They're only being built faster and like shit. 3-4 houses built in the last 2 years in our subdivision have had all their windows replaced. The windows were fine, the house wasn't built square. Most mass produced home, condos or apartment complexes are panelized construction now.
Put this way the guy assembling the panels to be shipped just wants to hit his quota for the day and go home. He doesn't give a shit if the 2x4 is warped or gnarly. Nail it together based on a template and move on.
You need to work with a framer that looks at most pieces of wood to make sure it's not shit. That doesn't happen anymore. Doors don't close right and windows don't open after the first year or two of settling. Cracked drywall and tile, if they use real tile at all in most non-custom homes.
AD says
I don't have the link handy, but we're at a historic low rate building wise per capita over the last 15 years roughly after the crash. The not building is the reason prices are getting out of reach for most because there is no supply. All the blue collar trades buddies I know are working on used houses not new construction. Then factor in a decade of historically low interest rates and people have low payments, why move? Rates are higher now, why build or buy a new home?
Incomes/employment need to rise or crash to see any changes. We're in a roughly 5% +/- land for most of the country housing wise. Sideways. Basically break even or make a small amount if you bought in the last 3-5 years which is what most people at minimum will stay in a home outside of job loss or movement.
The housing crash was shit lending policies to people that should have never owned a home. Plus builders buying 80 acres and dropping 140 homes on it without realizing demand would collapse. Things got desperate. Banks needed to be made whole on land and construction loans from developers so they created new lending products. Then sold them off.
Technical progress: New homes are constantly being built to higher standards, which affects the value of older homes.
This part is not true at all. They're only being built faster and like shit. 3-4 houses built in the last 2 years in our subdivision have had all their windows replaced. The windows were fine, the house wasn't built square. Most mass produced home, condos or apartment complexes are panelized construction now.
Put this way the guy assembling the panels to be shipped just wants to hit his quota for the day and go home. He doesn't give a shit if the 2x4 is warped or gnarly. Nail it together based on a template and move on.
You need to work with a framer that looks at most pieces of wood to make sure it's not shit. That doesn't happen anymore. Doors don't close right and windows don't open after the first year or two of settling. Cracked drywall and tile, if they use real tile at all in most non-custom homes.
AD says
Supply: The constant construction of new homes has historically been a factor keeping prices from appreciating significantly in real terms.
I don't have the link handy, but we're at a historic low rate building wise per capita over the last 15 years roughly after the crash. The not building is the reason prices are getting out of reach for most because there is no supply. All the blue collar trades buddies I know are working on used houses not new construction. Then factor in a decade of historically low interest rates and people have low payments, why move? Rates are higher now, why build or buy a new home?
Incomes/employment need to rise or crash to see any changes. We're in a roughly 5% +/- land for most of the country housing wise. Sideways. Basically break even or make a small amount if you bought in the last 3-5 years which is what most people at minimum will stay in a home outside of job loss or movement.
The housing crash was shit lending policies to people that should have never owned a home. Plus builders buying 80 acres and dropping 140 homes on it without realizing demand would collapse. Things got desperate. Banks needed to be made whole on land and construction loans from developers so they created new lending products. Then sold them off.
505
AD
2025 Oct 22, 8:33am
AD
2025 Oct 22, 8:33am
.
Economists predicting 30 year mortgage rate to remain around 6.2% until 2028. That means FHA and VA mortgage rates should be around 5.7%.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/top-economist-predicts-us-mortgage-rates-through-2028/ar-AA1OXROm?pc=NMTS
.
Economists predicting 30 year mortgage rate to remain around 6.2% until 2028. That means FHA and VA mortgage rates should be around 5.7%.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/top-economist-predicts-us-mortgage-rates-through-2028/ar-AA1OXROm?pc=NMTS
.
506
AD
2025 Oct 22, 8:38am
AD
2025 Oct 22, 8:38am
Rent going down should mean home prices going down as well especially in townhome HOAs like mine, where about 50% are owned by landlord investors.
507
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 22, 9:25am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 22, 9:25am
AD says
In the last 18 months, every time the Fed has cut general interest rates, mortgage rates have increased. Yes?
.
Economists predicting 30 year mortgage rate to remain around 6.2% until 2028. That means FHA and VA mortgage rates should be around 5.7%.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/top-economist-predicts-us-mortgage-rates-through-2028/ar-AA1OXROm?pc=NMTS
.
In the last 18 months, every time the Fed has cut general interest rates, mortgage rates have increased. Yes?
508
AD
2025 Oct 22, 9:58am
AD
2025 Oct 22, 9:58am
MolotovCocktail says
It is what the mortgage bond traders decide same goes for the 10 Year Treasury rate. The market will decide what is the rate.
Concerns about inflation will cause the mortgage rate to increase.
Historically as far as the spreads, the 10 Yr Treasury rate is about 1.75% above annual inflation (ie., steady rate) and 30 Year mortgage rate is about 1.5% above the 10 Yr Treasury rate.
Right now you can get a money market at Schwab that pays around 4% versus government reported inflation of around 2.7%.
Money market rates will match essentially the Federal Funds Rate.
AD says
.
Economists predicting 30 year mortgage rate to remain around 6.2% until 2028. That means FHA and VA mortgage rates should be around 5.7%.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/top-economist-predicts-us-mortgage-rates-through-2028/ar-AA1OXROm?pc=NMTS
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In the last 18 months, every time the Fed has cut general interest rates, mortgage rates have increased. Yes?
It is what the mortgage bond traders decide same goes for the 10 Year Treasury rate. The market will decide what is the rate.
Concerns about inflation will cause the mortgage rate to increase.
Historically as far as the spreads, the 10 Yr Treasury rate is about 1.75% above annual inflation (ie., steady rate) and 30 Year mortgage rate is about 1.5% above the 10 Yr Treasury rate.
Right now you can get a money market at Schwab that pays around 4% versus government reported inflation of around 2.7%.
Money market rates will match essentially the Federal Funds Rate.
509
AD
2025 Oct 22, 11:41am
AD
2025 Oct 22, 11:41am
Misc says
Shiller fails to take into account the transaction costs of the stock market. You see about 97% of listed stocks in 1890 have gone belly up to be replaced with others, that have been replaced etc After factoring in other market frictions (not buying exactly as the indexes, the bid/ask spread, having to sell in a downs year), the real rate of return for the stock market is about 1% per year.
And don't forget those pesky taxes that accrue along the way when having to sell to get the new stocks.
510
Patrick
2025 Oct 22, 12:33pm
Patrick
2025 Oct 22, 12:33pm
Stock market worked for me. I was able to retire at 55, which isn't bad.
Pretty sure if I had bought a house I would still have to work.
Pretty sure if I had bought a house I would still have to work.
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So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.