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583
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 1, 8:50am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 1, 8:50am
"We have built a retirement system that requires the next generation to be rich enough to buy our assets, while simultaneously building an economy that ensures they will be too poor to afford them.
That isn’t a retirement plan. It’s a Ponzi scheme running out of new entrants."
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened
That isn’t a retirement plan. It’s a Ponzi scheme running out of new entrants."
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened
584
AD
2025 Dec 1, 10:46am
AD
2025 Dec 1, 10:46am
MolotovCocktail says
US government could have a DIVERSE sovereign fund like Norway (composed of gold, Bitcoin, public lands that are leased, etc).
Among this is the Bitcoin Reserve held by US Treasury, gold, and ownership of national security strategic stocks like Intel.
As well as ownership of public lands which could be leased such as harvesting of biomass (used for wood pellets) in national forests.
Just look at the government infrastructure like Navy and Coast Guard ship yards and labs like Oak Ridge National Lab as being part of that adding to the amount of VALUABLE assets owned by the American public.
"We have built a retirement system that requires the next generation to be rich enough to buy our assets, while simultaneously building an economy that ensures they will be too poor to afford them.
That isn’t a retirement plan. It’s a Ponzi scheme running out of new entrants."
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened
US government could have a DIVERSE sovereign fund like Norway (composed of gold, Bitcoin, public lands that are leased, etc).
Among this is the Bitcoin Reserve held by US Treasury, gold, and ownership of national security strategic stocks like Intel.
As well as ownership of public lands which could be leased such as harvesting of biomass (used for wood pellets) in national forests.
Just look at the government infrastructure like Navy and Coast Guard ship yards and labs like Oak Ridge National Lab as being part of that adding to the amount of VALUABLE assets owned by the American public.
585
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 2, 9:21am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 2, 9:21am
AD says
I remember reading an article ~10 years ago US national assets sans national parks were estimated to be $26 trillion +/-.
Nobody knows for sure because no comprehensive audits of total national assets has ever been conducted.
Just look at the government infrastructure like Navy and Coast Guard ship yards and labs like Oak Ridge National Lab as being part of that adding to the amount of VALUABLE assets owned by the American public.
I remember reading an article ~10 years ago US national assets sans national parks were estimated to be $26 trillion +/-.
Nobody knows for sure because no comprehensive audits of total national assets has ever been conducted.
586
SharkyP
2025 Dec 2, 9:43am
SharkyP
2025 Dec 2, 9:43am
In fact house prices on average have dropped a bit in my neck of the woods in central Florida
587
Misc
2025 Dec 2, 11:47pm
Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.
I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.
There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.
There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
588
Misc
2025 Dec 3, 1:28am
If Florida nixes property taxes, it's estimated that property prices would go up 7-8% in the State.
... but why stop there ???
Why not do for residential properties what the government does for corporations ????
Simply have negative property taxes.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/florida-house-price-warning-issued-over-plan-to-eliminate-property-taxes/ar-AA1RyL1D
... but why stop there ???
Why not do for residential properties what the government does for corporations ????
Simply have negative property taxes.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/florida-house-price-warning-issued-over-plan-to-eliminate-property-taxes/ar-AA1RyL1D
589
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 3, 10:02am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 3, 10:02am
Misc says
You factoring in what their plan is to recoup the lost revenue? A special sales or capital gains surtax on sale of a home.
If Florida nixes property taxes, it's estimated that property prices would go up 7-8% in the State.
... but why stop there ???
Why not do for residential properties what the government does for corporations ????
Simply have negative property taxes.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/florida-house-price-warning-issued-over-plan-to-eliminate-property-taxes/ar-AA1RyL1D
You factoring in what their plan is to recoup the lost revenue? A special sales or capital gains surtax on sale of a home.
590
Misc
2025 Dec 3, 10:12am
MolotovCocktail says
Article says considering raising the sales tax, and/or increasing fees and other taxes. They mentioned cutting expenses, but nobody takes that seriously.
You factoring in what their plan is to recoup the lost revenue? A special sales or capital gains surtax on sale of a home.
Article says considering raising the sales tax, and/or increasing fees and other taxes. They mentioned cutting expenses, but nobody takes that seriously.
591
GNL
2025 Dec 3, 10:24am
GNL
2025 Dec 3, 10:24am
In my opinion, it is nearly criminal to make such a huge change in the state tax code. The tax would be lifted off asset owners and dumped on to non-asset owners. Yes, I know, homeowners would still have to pay consumption(?) taxes but, asset owners would have more spending power while non-asset owners would have less. In what world would any honest person think this is the right thing to do? Let home prices rise or fall on their own.
592
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 3, 6:07pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 3, 6:07pm
GNL says
That's the Plan.
Despite the denial many on this thread have, housing prices are going down, down, down.
Our elites know that. So resort to desperate measures like this and 30 yr mortgages in panic.
In my opinion, it is nearly criminal to make such a huge change in the state tax code. The tax would be lifted off asset owners and dumped on to non-asset owners. Yes, I know, homeowners would still have to pay consumption(?) taxes but, asset owners would have more spending power while non-asset owners would have less. In what world would any honest person think this is the right thing to do? Let home prices rise or fall on their own.
That's the Plan.
Despite the denial many on this thread have, housing prices are going down, down, down.
Our elites know that. So resort to desperate measures like this and 30 yr mortgages in panic.
593
mell
2025 Dec 3, 6:27pm
House prices in wine country have started climbing again and are only off 3% YoY (roughly), and off 6% from the post-covid all-time high.
596
AD
2025 Dec 4, 1:43pm
AD
2025 Dec 4, 1:43pm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-market-poised-crash-163700554.html
The 2008 housing meltdown was brutal — home values collapsed, millions of Americans were pushed into foreclosure and trillions in household wealth evaporated. Now, housing analyst Melody Wright is warning that the next downturn could be even worse.
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart on “Thoughtful Money,” Wright said the U.S. housing market is heading for a significant correction.
“I think, Adam, we're going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the median home price. And so that is going to be worse than 2008,” she said (1).
Wright noted that during the last crash, prices were on their way toward that equilibrium — where median incomes and median home values align — but “Wall Street came in to buy those,” effectively stopping the decline. This time, she argues, large investors may not step in.
The disconnect between home prices and household income is striking. According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of a U.S. home reached $410,800 in Q2 2025 — a 42% jump over the past decade.
Realtor.com estimates a typical household now needs to earn roughly $118,530 a year to afford a median-priced home (2). The actual median household income as of 2024, when the latest data was available? Just $83,730 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. That’s a wide gap.
The 2008 housing meltdown was brutal — home values collapsed, millions of Americans were pushed into foreclosure and trillions in household wealth evaporated. Now, housing analyst Melody Wright is warning that the next downturn could be even worse.
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart on “Thoughtful Money,” Wright said the U.S. housing market is heading for a significant correction.
“I think, Adam, we're going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the median home price. And so that is going to be worse than 2008,” she said (1).
Wright noted that during the last crash, prices were on their way toward that equilibrium — where median incomes and median home values align — but “Wall Street came in to buy those,” effectively stopping the decline. This time, she argues, large investors may not step in.
The disconnect between home prices and household income is striking. According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of a U.S. home reached $410,800 in Q2 2025 — a 42% jump over the past decade.
Realtor.com estimates a typical household now needs to earn roughly $118,530 a year to afford a median-priced home (2). The actual median household income as of 2024, when the latest data was available? Just $83,730 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. That’s a wide gap.
597
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 4, 2:30pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 4, 2:30pm
AD says
Yeah. Right here: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841
But heh! It's only going to be coastal urban hipster areas so...don't bother watching it.
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart on “Thoughtful Money,” Wright said the U.S. housing market is heading for a significant correction.
Yeah. Right here: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841
But heh! It's only going to be coastal urban hipster areas so...don't bother watching it.
598
AD
2025 Dec 4, 2:49pm
AD
2025 Dec 4, 2:49pm
MolotovCocktail says
300% More Airbnbs, But 30% Less Revenue:
Data on the Airbnb Host Squeeze
https://summeros.com/research/airbnb-saturation-study-2025/
,
https://youtu.be/fXpnOYHqWtA?si=QnCFt9UGFuz-XNf2
300% More Airbnbs, But 30% Less Revenue:
Data on the Airbnb Host Squeeze
https://summeros.com/research/airbnb-saturation-study-2025/
,
599
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 4, 3:24pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 4, 3:24pm
AD says
Wow! That's some serious damage going on there.
But don't worry! It won't go past urban hipster coastal areas, I am sure.
MolotovCocktail says
https://youtu.be/fXpnOYHqWtA?si=QnCFt9UGFuz-XNf2
300% More Airbnbs, But 30% Less Revenue:
Data on the Airbnb Host Squeeze
https://summeros.com/research/airbnb-saturation-study-2025/
,
Wow! That's some serious damage going on there.
But don't worry! It won't go past urban hipster coastal areas, I am sure.
601
ForcedTQ
2025 Dec 6, 12:15am
AD says
That’s because it’s all phantom or unrealized equity/valuation/“gain”…..
from Josh Rincon Facebook page
That’s because it’s all phantom or unrealized equity/valuation/“gain”…..
602
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Dec 6, 3:58am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Dec 6, 3:58am
MolotovCocktail says
This is a great article, thanks. I don’t know what to make of it, though. I have relatives in their 30’s who are doing very well. One is an engineer. His wife a UPenn law graduate. They just bought a second home. The engineer came from a very low middle class family. Another 30’s something relative has owned a home for several years and has been gainfully employed at a major university. However, both have decided not to have children.
My view is that the post-WW2 lead the US enjoyed has been becoming lost for quite a while as other countries are catching up. The avaerage slug can’t get by with a factory job and pension that allows him to raise 2+ kids with a non-working homemaker wife. This is not news. So the stakes to get ahead are higher but some folks will make it, just less and less folks will.
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened
This is a great article, thanks. I don’t know what to make of it, though. I have relatives in their 30’s who are doing very well. One is an engineer. His wife a UPenn law graduate. They just bought a second home. The engineer came from a very low middle class family. Another 30’s something relative has owned a home for several years and has been gainfully employed at a major university. However, both have decided not to have children.
My view is that the post-WW2 lead the US enjoyed has been becoming lost for quite a while as other countries are catching up. The avaerage slug can’t get by with a factory job and pension that allows him to raise 2+ kids with a non-working homemaker wife. This is not news. So the stakes to get ahead are higher but some folks will make it, just less and less folks will.
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So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.