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606
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 6, 7:47pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 6, 7:47pm
AD says
Hahahahahanaba!
Mortgage rates: Kelman expects rates to decline from their 2023–2025 highs, easing affordability pressures.
Hahahahahanaba!
608
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Dec 7, 3:02pm
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Dec 7, 3:02pm
MolotovCocktail says
The Establishment Rate Cope is off the charts. It's the price and the price plus the price, relative to income. And the massive increase in carrying costs, and much smaller households. 60% decline in Birthrate + 30% increase in single person households. And add the aging Demographics.
Smart sellers would cut 10% below market and claim they're in a hurry to move/retire and get out now.
Already the rents are tanking in all but a few places on the coast, and even some of those are dropping. Formerly hot markets like Tampa/St.Pete, Houston, Austin, San Antone, Phoenix, and even Nashville are dropping. And also the skyrocketing comps, which many savvy larger complexes are offering since a free month or two doesn't plus free custom painting that doesn't show up on the average contracted rent.
Hahahahahanaba!
The Establishment Rate Cope is off the charts. It's the price and the price plus the price, relative to income. And the massive increase in carrying costs, and much smaller households. 60% decline in Birthrate + 30% increase in single person households. And add the aging Demographics.
Smart sellers would cut 10% below market and claim they're in a hurry to move/retire and get out now.
Already the rents are tanking in all but a few places on the coast, and even some of those are dropping. Formerly hot markets like Tampa/St.Pete, Houston, Austin, San Antone, Phoenix, and even Nashville are dropping. And also the skyrocketing comps, which many savvy larger complexes are offering since a free month or two doesn't plus free custom painting that doesn't show up on the average contracted rent.
610
AD
2025 Dec 7, 7:29pm
AD
2025 Dec 7, 7:29pm
DemoralizerOfPanicans says
Rents are at 2021 levels for townhomes in Panama City Beach and construction for multifamily housing like Hathaway Luxury Apartments stopped in 2024.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7578-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/305989661_zpid/
Already the rents are tanking in all but a few places on the coast, and even some of those are dropping.
Rents are at 2021 levels for townhomes in Panama City Beach and construction for multifamily housing like Hathaway Luxury Apartments stopped in 2024.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7578-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/305989661_zpid/
611
AD
2025 Dec 8, 12:34am
AD
2025 Dec 8, 12:34am
Goldman Sachs housing affordability was at its greatest value in 2012 during 1996 to 2025, which was around 4 years after the housing bubble popped. The national average for home prices dropped about 30% from 2008 to 2014.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-reveals-housing-affordability-illusion-when-factoring-other-costs
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-reveals-housing-affordability-illusion-when-factoring-other-costs
612
AD
2025 Dec 8, 2:04am
AD
2025 Dec 8, 2:04am
Just going back the rule 10% drop/increase in price for a 1% increase/decrease in the 30 yr mortgage rate and that the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% in 2020 and is now 7%, then technically home prices need to drop 40%.
That would match or align with the info below as far as hourly rate required to afford a home in 2020 versus 2025. Granted it does not take into account about a 20% increase in household income since 2020.
That would match or align with the info below as far as hourly rate required to afford a home in 2020 versus 2025. Granted it does not take into account about a 20% increase in household income since 2020.
613
Misc
2025 Dec 8, 2:43am
AD says
Those were back in the quaint old days when people used mortgages to buy houses. Nowadays 35% of house purchases are done all cash *this is across all price points).
SPY stock went from $323.54 Jan 1 2020 to $685.69 today. If you put that down to how much per hour you need to earn today vs how much you needed to earn per hour back in 2020 to buy a share, it is worse inflation than housing.
So, yes asset price inflation has been much worse than the CPI.
The stock market gained over $7 trillion this year. This has led the more affluent sector of society to simply purchase housing for their offspring outright for cash, and yes their children believe they deserve it.
For those chumps that don't have parents who can pay for college outright, the increase in interest rates for student loans has increased the repayment cost over the 20 year repayment period by 68% since 2021. This is on top of the increase in tuition/fees etc. So yep, the vast makority going to college today are FUCKED.
... this ain't gonna end well
Just going back the rule 10% drop/increase in price for a 1% increase/decrease in the 30 yr mortgage rate and that the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% in 2020 and is now 7%, then technically home prices need to drop 40%
Those were back in the quaint old days when people used mortgages to buy houses. Nowadays 35% of house purchases are done all cash *this is across all price points).
SPY stock went from $323.54 Jan 1 2020 to $685.69 today. If you put that down to how much per hour you need to earn today vs how much you needed to earn per hour back in 2020 to buy a share, it is worse inflation than housing.
So, yes asset price inflation has been much worse than the CPI.
The stock market gained over $7 trillion this year. This has led the more affluent sector of society to simply purchase housing for their offspring outright for cash, and yes their children believe they deserve it.
For those chumps that don't have parents who can pay for college outright, the increase in interest rates for student loans has increased the repayment cost over the 20 year repayment period by 68% since 2021. This is on top of the increase in tuition/fees etc. So yep, the vast makority going to college today are FUCKED.
... this ain't gonna end well
614
AD
2025 Dec 8, 4:29am
AD
2025 Dec 8, 4:29am
Misc says
Yes, as lets hope the poor and working class do not become the barbarians.
I think if housing prices and mortgage rate stay essentially flat for 3 years and income increases at least 3% a year then "housing affordability" will be less of an issue.
I'm seeing it in Panama City Beach such as eggs are $2.50 a dozen, gas is around $2.65 a gallon, and rents are at 2021 levels.
HO-3 insurance has dropped a lot as we ended up gong from $2350 a year to $1625 a year for 2026 for same coverage but a different insurance company. Our HOA is lowering its regular assessment by about 8% for 2026.
... this ain't gonna end well
Yes, as lets hope the poor and working class do not become the barbarians.
I think if housing prices and mortgage rate stay essentially flat for 3 years and income increases at least 3% a year then "housing affordability" will be less of an issue.
I'm seeing it in Panama City Beach such as eggs are $2.50 a dozen, gas is around $2.65 a gallon, and rents are at 2021 levels.
HO-3 insurance has dropped a lot as we ended up gong from $2350 a year to $1625 a year for 2026 for same coverage but a different insurance company. Our HOA is lowering its regular assessment by about 8% for 2026.
« First « Previous Comments 606 - 614 of 614 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.