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653
Patrick
2025 Dec 30, 5:18pm
Patrick
2025 Dec 30, 5:18pm
Patrick says
The government is also beholden to powerful medical lobbyists and donors: the AMA, Hospital association, Pfizer, etc. So government doesn't want medical costs to go down. That would anger those lobbyists and donors.
The problem in both cases is fundamentally one of corruption, where a wealthy slice of the populace uses unwarranted profits to influence government policy to keep those profits going, and to expand them every year.
The solution has to be a good democratic "immune system" which recognizes and rejects such corruption as harmful. The difficulty is that so many people are in on the housing and medical scams that no one can get elected without supporting the scams.
Maybe the pain of housing and medical costs has to get truly overwhelming and crush the real economy before there can be any structural change.
Yes, it's politically impossible for Trump or any other politician to openly advocate what we really need: lower house prices.
Instead, we get bullshit like the 50-year mortgage.
The government is also beholden to powerful medical lobbyists and donors: the AMA, Hospital association, Pfizer, etc. So government doesn't want medical costs to go down. That would anger those lobbyists and donors.
The problem in both cases is fundamentally one of corruption, where a wealthy slice of the populace uses unwarranted profits to influence government policy to keep those profits going, and to expand them every year.
The solution has to be a good democratic "immune system" which recognizes and rejects such corruption as harmful. The difficulty is that so many people are in on the housing and medical scams that no one can get elected without supporting the scams.
Maybe the pain of housing and medical costs has to get truly overwhelming and crush the real economy before there can be any structural change.
654
Glock-n-Load
2025 Dec 30, 7:33pm
Patrick says
“Maybe the pain of housing and medical costs has to get truly overwhelming and crush the real economy before there can be any structural change.”
I think what will happen is fewer and fewer will feed at the trough of fraud (if that’s the right word) as well as fewer and fewer who will be able to afford to feed the fraud.
You see in 3rd world countries where a few have access to anything they want or need while most everyone else eats shit.
“Maybe the pain of housing and medical costs has to get truly overwhelming and crush the real economy before there can be any structural change.”
I think what will happen is fewer and fewer will feed at the trough of fraud (if that’s the right word) as well as fewer and fewer who will be able to afford to feed the fraud.
You see in 3rd world countries where a few have access to anything they want or need while most everyone else eats shit.
655
AD
2025 Dec 30, 10:01pm
AD
2025 Dec 30, 10:01pm
Glock-n-Load says
True, as it's not sustainable so you get "increasing entropy", which means more and more undergo a decrease in standard of living.
I just hope that there is enough productivity gains and innovation to offset all what is wrong such as widespread fraud and Federal Reserve inflationary policies.
You see in 3rd world countries where a few have access to anything they want or need while most everyone else eats shit.
True, as it's not sustainable so you get "increasing entropy", which means more and more undergo a decrease in standard of living.
I just hope that there is enough productivity gains and innovation to offset all what is wrong such as widespread fraud and Federal Reserve inflationary policies.
656
Blue
2025 Dec 31, 12:13am
Sounded like AI generated video!
https://youtu.be/Anfs8Nq9ooU
Kevin O'Leary : 5 States Where Real Estate Will Crash in 2026
@samuelhenery
1:49 (1) California
4:24 (2) New York City metro area
6:39 (3) Illinois specifically, Chicago
8:51 (4) New Jersey
10:55 (5) Massachusetts specifically Boston
@paulgh2560
We strongly believe that Most States that will Collapse are The Democrat States such as California since the idiot Governors are the Corrupt Governors!
@citizenjustice-el9pe
I absolutely agree with this. Not from listening to him. But because I have watched Californians being treated like garbage. I think Oleary is right, but I think AI is part of this video.
@neebinmakwah349
Left Illinois in 2021, super high taxes... Crime ridden and corrupt politicians
https://youtu.be/Anfs8Nq9ooU
Kevin O'Leary : 5 States Where Real Estate Will Crash in 2026
@samuelhenery
1:49 (1) California
4:24 (2) New York City metro area
6:39 (3) Illinois specifically, Chicago
8:51 (4) New Jersey
10:55 (5) Massachusetts specifically Boston
@paulgh2560
We strongly believe that Most States that will Collapse are The Democrat States such as California since the idiot Governors are the Corrupt Governors!
@citizenjustice-el9pe
I absolutely agree with this. Not from listening to him. But because I have watched Californians being treated like garbage. I think Oleary is right, but I think AI is part of this video.
@neebinmakwah349
Left Illinois in 2021, super high taxes... Crime ridden and corrupt politicians
657
Misc
2025 Dec 31, 12:20am
Case/Shiller came out today. Residential home values increased month over month and year over year. They were puny increases on a percentage basis. They are down from the all-time high hit this summer, but the decrease is less than 1%.
For folks just starting out that 1.4% increase year over year would wipe out a good portion of the funds they'd be trying to save up to buy a house. It's about $500 per month increase every month for an average priced house.
The forecasters like Fannie/Freddie. Zillow. Wells Fargo, etc., have price increases pegged at 1.5-2.0% for next year. Sure, it's less than the rate of inflation, but since a house is about 5 times household income, younger folks would need to save about 7-10% of their income just to break even.
.GreaterNYCDude says
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007...even in the depths of the Housing Crash. I dunno, 18 years seems like a long term to me. Seems like the rest of the country is simply joining in on not being affordable.
Glock-n-Load says
Homeownership is increasingly hard for those starting out, and next year's forecasts are for no real improvement.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
For folks just starting out that 1.4% increase year over year would wipe out a good portion of the funds they'd be trying to save up to buy a house. It's about $500 per month increase every month for an average priced house.
The forecasters like Fannie/Freddie. Zillow. Wells Fargo, etc., have price increases pegged at 1.5-2.0% for next year. Sure, it's less than the rate of inflation, but since a house is about 5 times household income, younger folks would need to save about 7-10% of their income just to break even.
.GreaterNYCDude says
But the price levels are not sustainable long term
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007...even in the depths of the Housing Crash. I dunno, 18 years seems like a long term to me. Seems like the rest of the country is simply joining in on not being affordable.
Glock-n-Load says
You see in 3rd world countries where a few have access to anything they want or need while most everyone else eats shit.
Homeownership is increasingly hard for those starting out, and next year's forecasts are for no real improvement.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
658
Booger
2025 Dec 31, 4:59am
Booger
2025 Dec 31, 4:59am
Misc says
That's what happens when only rich people can afford to buy a house.
Residential home values increased month over month and year over year.
That's what happens when only rich people can afford to buy a house.
659
GreaterNYCDude
2025 Dec 31, 5:33am
Misc says
California is a special kind of crazy. Here on the East coast there used to be pockets of relative affordability, particularly in the suburbs / exburbs after the '08 crash. Those days are gone. They may well return but it will take 5 to 10 years. We've seen this movie before. If '04 to '08 was housing bubble 1.0 we are living in housing bubble 2.0 which makes sense given it's been almost 20 years; a new generation gets screwed.
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007
California is a special kind of crazy. Here on the East coast there used to be pockets of relative affordability, particularly in the suburbs / exburbs after the '08 crash. Those days are gone. They may well return but it will take 5 to 10 years. We've seen this movie before. If '04 to '08 was housing bubble 1.0 we are living in housing bubble 2.0 which makes sense given it's been almost 20 years; a new generation gets screwed.
660
GNL
2025 Dec 31, 6:19am
GNL
2025 Dec 31, 6:19am
GreaterNYCDude says
I think they will do anything to keep prices high. Less building easily achieves that.
Want to know the easiest way to increase your wealth? Pull the ladder up and keep supply low. This drains all wealth.
Misc says
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007
California is a special kind of crazy. Here on the East coast there used to be pockets of relative affordability, particularly in the suburbs / exburbs after the '08 crash. Those days are gone. They may well return but it will take 5 to 10 years. We've seen this movie before. If '04 to '08 was housing bubble 1.0 we are living in housing bubble 2.0 which makes sense given it's been almost 20 years; a new generation gets screwed.
I think they will do anything to keep prices high. Less building easily achieves that.
Want to know the easiest way to increase your wealth? Pull the ladder up and keep supply low. This drains all wealth.
661
mell
2025 Dec 31, 9:39am
GreaterNYCDude says
Have you followd coastal Maine the past couple years until 2023? Totally nuts with $1000 per sqft prices. Past 2 years prices dropped 25% and they are still high hence not selling. CA selling much better
Misc says
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007
California is a special kind of crazy. Here on the East coast there used to be pockets of relative affordability, particularly in the suburbs / exburbs after the '08 crash. Those days are gone. They may well return but it will take 5 to 10 years. We've seen this movie before. If '04 to '08 was housing bubble 1.0 we are living in housing bubble 2.0 which makes sense given it's been almost 20 years; a new generation gets screwed.
Have you followd coastal Maine the past couple years until 2023? Totally nuts with $1000 per sqft prices. Past 2 years prices dropped 25% and they are still high hence not selling. CA selling much better
662
GNL
2025 Dec 31, 9:55am
GNL
2025 Dec 31, 9:55am
mell says
I just did a quick check on Zillow. Yep, prices have certainly dropped. I found one with an $80K drop from $449K to $370K. On the water. Not 25% though...yet.
GreaterNYCDude says
Misc says
Based on price to rent models, for California houses, it has always been cheaper to rent than to own since I started visiting this site in 2007
California is a special kind of crazy. Here on the East coast there used to be pockets of relative affordability, particularly in the suburbs / exburbs after the '08 crash. Those days are gone. They may well return but it will take 5 to 10 years. We've seen this movie before. If '04 to '08 was housing bubble 1.0 we are living in housing bubble 2.0 which makes sense given it's been almost 20 years; a new generation gets screwed.
Have you followd coastal Maine the past couple years until 2023? Totally nuts with $1000 per sqft prices. Past 2 years prices dropped 25% and they are still high hence not selling. CA selling much better
I just did a quick check on Zillow. Yep, prices have certainly dropped. I found one with an $80K drop from $449K to $370K. On the water. Not 25% though...yet.
663
mell
2025 Dec 31, 10:02am
GNL says
Yeah some of the most egregious ones have dropped in the area we are vacationing in (new harbor). Its crazy because most of these are really old houses inside and outside and the weather is quite rough. And once in a while a storm takes an oceanfront home without the possibility to rebuild. It's beautiful up there but prices are way too high. Most places are generational though so historically not much inventory, changed a bit over the past years.
I just did a quick check on Zillow. Yep, prices have certainly dropped. I found one with an $80K drop from $449K to $370K. On the water. Not 25% though...yet.
Yeah some of the most egregious ones have dropped in the area we are vacationing in (new harbor). Its crazy because most of these are really old houses inside and outside and the weather is quite rough. And once in a while a storm takes an oceanfront home without the possibility to rebuild. It's beautiful up there but prices are way too high. Most places are generational though so historically not much inventory, changed a bit over the past years.
664
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 31, 1:49pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Dec 31, 1:49pm
PeopleUnited says
It's already happening.
This is not going to happen. The wealthy will get wealthier, and less and less poor and middle class will have houses or other valuable assets. That is the trajectory we are on and it is only accelerating in the past 5 years.
It's already happening.
665
Misc
2026 Jan 1, 7:11am
Booger says
Yep, there's always a big difference when several Nigger families move into a neighborhood. Then property prices grenade.
That's what happens when only rich people can afford to buy a house.
Yep, there's always a big difference when several Nigger families move into a neighborhood. Then property prices grenade.
666
AD
2026 Jan 1, 9:33pm
AD
2026 Jan 1, 9:33pm
Rent is at least going down albeit Austin was one of the most overheated cities for real estate during the pandemic.
Austin rent is at pre pandemic levels. Panama City Beach rents are around 2021 levels.
Austin rent is at pre pandemic levels. Panama City Beach rents are around 2021 levels.
667
AD
2026 Jan 10, 11:23pm
AD
2026 Jan 10, 11:23pm
This is a 3 bedroom townhome unit in Panama City Beach that is at 2021 rent level
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1604-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634367_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1604-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634367_zpid/
669
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 23, 3:19am
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 23, 3:19am
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Demographics is destiny.
House prices are going to fall over the next two decades and nothing can stop it.
The average buyer right now is 60 years old. Boomers buying from Boomers.
The whole housing market is frozen because sellers are holding out for $405k and most buyers are refusing to pay it, happy to enjoy declining rents and wait it out. The only buyers who are willing are maybe 5%, 10% tops of households.
Smaller households means no rush to find bedrooms for John and Jane and Joe (or today, Braden or Payton, and no other kid).
The same reason investors won't buy the $405k SFHs either (rents trending down, carrying costs and borrowing costs up)
670
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 23, 5:43am
They won't let it go down. The moment free market lets prices slip to what families could afford, government steps in to increase prices through use of Fannie, Freddie, and various federal reserve tricks. It's pretty clear that government is set on keeping it this way.
MolotovCocktail says
Didn't you see it? This government doesn't care about Braden, Payton and Jane, they'll import Jose and Maria to replace you. This government is ran for the rich, by the rich, at expense to everyone else. They don't care about you, George Carlin was very right about everything when it comes to these politicians.
It's not free market, it's a managed economy. And they are managing it this way.
MolotovCocktail says
Smaller households means no rush to find bedrooms for John and Jane and Joe (or today, Braden or Payton, and no other kid).
Didn't you see it? This government doesn't care about Braden, Payton and Jane, they'll import Jose and Maria to replace you. This government is ran for the rich, by the rich, at expense to everyone else. They don't care about you, George Carlin was very right about everything when it comes to these politicians.
It's not free market, it's a managed economy. And they are managing it this way.
671
Patrick
2026 Jan 23, 9:13pm
Patrick
2026 Jan 23, 9:13pm
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
Yes, if prices were to go down, it would piss off the banks and the boomers, and those groups have a lot of political power.
It's pretty clear that government is set on keeping it this way.
Yes, if prices were to go down, it would piss off the banks and the boomers, and those groups have a lot of political power.
672
AD
2026 Jan 23, 10:40pm
AD
2026 Jan 23, 10:40pm
MolotovCocktail says
Does the demographics at least provide qualified buyers or is population growth driven by 3rd world poor and barely educated immigrants ? Like does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
The median house should be priced no more than 4 times median household income for a 30 yr mortgage rate of 5%.
The whole housing market is frozen because sellers are holding out for $405k and most buyers are refusing to pay it, happy to enjoy declining rents and wait it out. The only buyers who are willing are maybe 5%, 10% tops of households.
Does the demographics at least provide qualified buyers or is population growth driven by 3rd world poor and barely educated immigrants ? Like does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
The median house should be priced no more than 4 times median household income for a 30 yr mortgage rate of 5%.
673
Booger
2026 Jan 24, 12:36am
Booger
2026 Jan 24, 12:36am
AD says
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
674
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 8:27am
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 8:27am
Booger says
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
675
mell
2026 Jan 24, 1:00pm
HeadSet says
It's not just that, Canada has always been very popular among Asians, esp. wealthy ones. Beats where many of them were coming from
Booger says
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
It's not just that, Canada has always been very popular among Asians, esp. wealthy ones. Beats where many of them were coming from
676
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:18pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:18pm
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
They can't stop it. They can bail out banks and give investors some bennies.
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
They won't let it go down. The moment free market lets prices slip to what families could afford, government steps in to increase prices through use of Fannie, Freddie, and various federal reserve tricks. It's pretty clear that government is set on keeping it this way.
They can't stop it. They can bail out banks and give investors some bennies.
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
677
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 1:32pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
The Fed only bought a few hundred billion in mortgage backed securities during the Financial Crisis. The rate decrease wasn't enough to bailout those with oversized mortgages, so property prices dropped to where the Wall Street firms could pick them up in bulk When trillions were spent by the Fed during Covid, that caused the prices to spike. Before Trump sicced Freddie and Fannie on the mortgage market the spreads between the 30 year mortgage and the 10 year treasury and the Fed funds rate was higher than it was even during the Financial crisis. Since the Fed was picking its nose, Trump decided to play the Freddie/Fannie card. Started with $200 billion to purchase and the 30 year mortgage rate dropped to 6%, That's still not low enough so they're dounbling down with an additional $200 billion. Freddie/Fannie had a couple of trillion MBS on their balance sheets when the Financial crisis hit, so there is a lot of room for more purchases if the markets don't cooperate.-- Fuck the Fed if they won't help America
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-housing-finance-chief-oks-more-mortgage-spending-and-adds-risk-for-government-backed-lenders/ar-AA1UT6UZ?pc=HCTS
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
The Fed only bought a few hundred billion in mortgage backed securities during the Financial Crisis. The rate decrease wasn't enough to bailout those with oversized mortgages, so property prices dropped to where the Wall Street firms could pick them up in bulk When trillions were spent by the Fed during Covid, that caused the prices to spike. Before Trump sicced Freddie and Fannie on the mortgage market the spreads between the 30 year mortgage and the 10 year treasury and the Fed funds rate was higher than it was even during the Financial crisis. Since the Fed was picking its nose, Trump decided to play the Freddie/Fannie card. Started with $200 billion to purchase and the 30 year mortgage rate dropped to 6%, That's still not low enough so they're dounbling down with an additional $200 billion. Freddie/Fannie had a couple of trillion MBS on their balance sheets when the Financial crisis hit, so there is a lot of room for more purchases if the markets don't cooperate.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-housing-finance-chief-oks-more-mortgage-spending-and-adds-risk-for-government-backed-lenders/ar-AA1UT6UZ?pc=HCTS
678
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:42pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:42pm
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
679
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:12pm
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
680
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:15pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
681
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 24, 4:24pm
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 24, 4:24pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Under what law does he have the authority to do this?
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
Under what law does he have the authority to do this?
682
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:35pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market. Fannie/Freddie allow financing for 10 properties per person so many made bank during the Financial crisis. Problem was when all those distressed properties were acquired the investor class wanted more. Home builders were building entire subdivisions for these investors, as well as them swooping in on standard projects. Plenty of offshore money was involved too (Trump is trying to get rid of these purchasers too), but the problem is too many investors Millions are involved. About 12% of the population owns more than 1 residential property. It became an investment fad.
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market. Fannie/Freddie allow financing for 10 properties per person so many made bank during the Financial crisis. Problem was when all those distressed properties were acquired the investor class wanted more. Home builders were building entire subdivisions for these investors, as well as them swooping in on standard projects. Plenty of offshore money was involved too (Trump is trying to get rid of these purchasers too), but the problem is too many investors Millions are involved. About 12% of the population owns more than 1 residential property. It became an investment fad.
683
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
Misc says
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
684
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
Misc says
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market.
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
685
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:57pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
686
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
They're still building and there's plenty of supply.
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
687
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Correct.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
688
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
689
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
690
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:24pm
HeadSet says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
691
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
Misc says
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
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So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.