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672
AD
2026 Jan 23, 10:40pm
AD
2026 Jan 23, 10:40pm
MolotovCocktail says
Does the demographics at least provide qualified buyers or is population growth driven by 3rd world poor and barely educated immigrants ? Like does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
The median house should be priced no more than 4 times median household income for a 30 yr mortgage rate of 5%.
The whole housing market is frozen because sellers are holding out for $405k and most buyers are refusing to pay it, happy to enjoy declining rents and wait it out. The only buyers who are willing are maybe 5%, 10% tops of households.
Does the demographics at least provide qualified buyers or is population growth driven by 3rd world poor and barely educated immigrants ? Like does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
The median house should be priced no more than 4 times median household income for a 30 yr mortgage rate of 5%.
673
Booger
2026 Jan 24, 12:36am
Booger
2026 Jan 24, 12:36am
AD says
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
does Canada have that many rich immigrants buying up median priced homes as their housing market is a lot overheated.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
674
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 8:27am
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 8:27am
Booger says
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
675
mell
2026 Jan 24, 1:00pm
HeadSet says
It's not just that, Canada has always been very popular among Asians, esp. wealthy ones. Beats where many of them were coming from
Booger says
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
That is what happened in Manassa and Price Wiliam County in VA. A judge through out local ordinances that prevented over a certain number of unrelated folks living in a single-family abode.
It's not just that, Canada has always been very popular among Asians, esp. wealthy ones. Beats where many of them were coming from
676
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:18pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:18pm
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
They can't stop it. They can bail out banks and give investors some bennies.
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
They won't let it go down. The moment free market lets prices slip to what families could afford, government steps in to increase prices through use of Fannie, Freddie, and various federal reserve tricks. It's pretty clear that government is set on keeping it this way.
They can't stop it. They can bail out banks and give investors some bennies.
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
677
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 1:32pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
The Fed only bought a few hundred billion in mortgage backed securities during the Financial Crisis. The rate decrease wasn't enough to bailout those with oversized mortgages, so property prices dropped to where the Wall Street firms could pick them up in bulk When trillions were spent by the Fed during Covid, that caused the prices to spike. Before Trump sicced Freddie and Fannie on the mortgage market the spreads between the 30 year mortgage and the 10 year treasury and the Fed funds rate was higher than it was even during the Financial crisis. Since the Fed was picking its nose, Trump decided to play the Freddie/Fannie card. Started with $200 billion to purchase and the 30 year mortgage rate dropped to 6%, That's still not low enough so they're dounbling down with an additional $200 billion. Freddie/Fannie had a couple of trillion MBS on their balance sheets when the Financial crisis hit, so there is a lot of room for more purchases if the markets don't cooperate.-- Fuck the Fed if they won't help America
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-housing-finance-chief-oks-more-mortgage-spending-and-adds-risk-for-government-backed-lenders/ar-AA1UT6UZ?pc=HCTS
Just like in 2008-2012, they couldn't stop the drop despite trillions.
The Fed only bought a few hundred billion in mortgage backed securities during the Financial Crisis. The rate decrease wasn't enough to bailout those with oversized mortgages, so property prices dropped to where the Wall Street firms could pick them up in bulk When trillions were spent by the Fed during Covid, that caused the prices to spike. Before Trump sicced Freddie and Fannie on the mortgage market the spreads between the 30 year mortgage and the 10 year treasury and the Fed funds rate was higher than it was even during the Financial crisis. Since the Fed was picking its nose, Trump decided to play the Freddie/Fannie card. Started with $200 billion to purchase and the 30 year mortgage rate dropped to 6%, That's still not low enough so they're dounbling down with an additional $200 billion. Freddie/Fannie had a couple of trillion MBS on their balance sheets when the Financial crisis hit, so there is a lot of room for more purchases if the markets don't cooperate.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-housing-finance-chief-oks-more-mortgage-spending-and-adds-risk-for-government-backed-lenders/ar-AA1UT6UZ?pc=HCTS
678
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:42pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 1:42pm
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
679
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:12pm
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
680
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:15pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
681
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 24, 4:24pm
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 24, 4:24pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Under what law does he have the authority to do this?
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
Under what law does he have the authority to do this?
682
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:35pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market. Fannie/Freddie allow financing for 10 properties per person so many made bank during the Financial crisis. Problem was when all those distressed properties were acquired the investor class wanted more. Home builders were building entire subdivisions for these investors, as well as them swooping in on standard projects. Plenty of offshore money was involved too (Trump is trying to get rid of these purchasers too), but the problem is too many investors Millions are involved. About 12% of the population owns more than 1 residential property. It became an investment fad.
There's also the promulgation of new rules to disallow WS from investing in SFH
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market. Fannie/Freddie allow financing for 10 properties per person so many made bank during the Financial crisis. Problem was when all those distressed properties were acquired the investor class wanted more. Home builders were building entire subdivisions for these investors, as well as them swooping in on standard projects. Plenty of offshore money was involved too (Trump is trying to get rid of these purchasers too), but the problem is too many investors Millions are involved. About 12% of the population owns more than 1 residential property. It became an investment fad.
683
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
Misc says
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
684
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
Misc says
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market.
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
685
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:57pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
686
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
They're still building and there's plenty of supply.
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
687
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Correct.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
688
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
689
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
690
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:24pm
HeadSet says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
691
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
Misc says
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
692
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:40pm
HeadSet says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Misc says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
693
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
694
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
Misc says
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out.
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
695
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Booger says
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
696
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
HeadSet says
Yes.
Misc says
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Yes.
Misc says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
698
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
« First « Previous Comments 672 - 698 of 698 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.