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683
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:50pm
Misc says
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
The builders bought the lots when the price was high because of the low rates. They are not going to build and show a loss. Therefore, building will be anemic until enough time has passed for inflation to do away with nominal loss figures on the price of the lots, or rates drop to where builders can show a profit because of a higher price that lhomeloaners can pay.
Builders have slowed but not to the degree they did in former recessions. Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
New Houses are now competing with used Houses, and in some cases they're cheaper - before accounting for builder loan and warranty incentives that homeloaners generally can't offer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/08/27/heres-why-old-homes-suddenly-cost-more-than-shiny-new-ones/
684
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 4:52pm
Misc says
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out. There's just no profit. Also, Wall Street only owns about 4% of the housing stock. They're mostly rented by Mom and Pop types. About 41% of people renting are in SFHs, so its a big market.
Yep. The whole "Blackrock and Wall Street ruined the housing market" is crap. They were also mostly in a handful of metros, mostly Sunbelt, markets. And the Mom & Pops aren't that much of a factor.
It's stubborn Homeloaners, who as usual are quarters behind the smart money, insisting on peak pricing or perhaps a smidgeon less until they're forced to drop the price by life events.
Every homeloaner believes they own the Taj Mahal in the latest and greatest area with tons of jobs and culture and such.
685
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 4:57pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
Down 30% from COVID Peak (~2M) but still almost 1.4M/year, well over a million.
Most recent data from October showed an annualized start rate of only 874k. So much less than the number of homes going uninhabitable. and the new builds are crap.
686
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
They're still building and there's plenty of supply.
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
687
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Correct.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
688
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
689
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
690
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:24pm
HeadSet says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
691
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
Misc says
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
692
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:40pm
HeadSet says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Misc says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
693
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
694
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
Misc says
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out.
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
695
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Booger says
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
696
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
HeadSet says
Yes.
Misc says
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Yes.
Misc says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
698
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
« First « Previous Comments 683 - 698 of 698 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.