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686
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 5:09pm
They're still building and there's plenty of supply.
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
And unlike 2008 there are millions and millions of new multifamilies and some are still being finished and thanks to GFR laws, must be completed or lose millions in completion bonds and fines. Vacancy rates in Texas and Tennessee and Florida approach 50%.
Home prices are going down.
Boomers had a fantastic run of 40 years real estate and stock appreciation. They need to cut 20% and sell today if they're depending on house sales to fund retirement before everybody else does.
We can look forward to a decade or two of declining house prices and a meh stock market due to IRA/401k drawdowns to fund the Bypasses.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
687
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:12pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Correct.
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
688
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
689
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
690
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:24pm
HeadSet says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
691
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
Misc says
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
692
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:40pm
HeadSet says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Misc says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
693
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
694
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
Misc says
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out.
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
695
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Booger says
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
696
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
HeadSet says
Yes.
Misc says
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Yes.
Misc says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
698
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
699
HeadSet
2026 Jan 25, 9:19am
HeadSet
2026 Jan 25, 9:19am
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Around here, the trade-in value for a 2018 loaded Pathfinder with 100k miles is about $4k. Lots of life left on a car like that, with maybe a tuneup and a belt change due.
Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
Around here, the trade-in value for a 2018 loaded Pathfinder with 100k miles is about $4k. Lots of life left on a car like that, with maybe a tuneup and a belt change due.
700
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 25, 9:23am
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Investors who were giving out used car loans imploded. That’s why it’s going down to market.
As long as government doesn’t step in to save bad debt, it’ll be at market rate instead of inflated government rate.
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
Investors who were giving out used car loans imploded. That’s why it’s going down to market.
As long as government doesn’t step in to save bad debt, it’ll be at market rate instead of inflated government rate.
« First « Previous Comments 686 - 700 of 700 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.