patrick.net

https://x.com/LangmanVince/status/1909565870818328873

The_Deplorable says

https://x.com/LangmanVince/status/1909565870818328873

Excellent point. The RETAIL price is not what's tariffed. It's the price to the importer that's tariffed.

Her reasoning is correct but her numbers are wrong.

The labor cost is probably around $10, but the value of the BOM cost is a few hundred dollars. Thus the taxable value may be $400. At 150% tariffs duties will be $600. Had they built factories in the United States labor might have been $100 (I'm completely making up this number) and Apple's profit would not have been significantly different.

The rhetoric used is incorrect. Trump is not taxing China, he is taxing companies that import from China. The politicians who facilitated trade with the communists, those who made it unprofitable for companies in Free countries to compete with them, and to some extent the leaders of the companies that trade with the commies, even though there are alternatives, are enemies of the People of the United States.

I saw some reports that Trump might make exceptions for some companies, which is more than unfortunate. He could make exception by HTS code, but not to a particular importer -- that sounds like corruption. He should have kept the tariff at maybe 50%, or some other number which is high enough to encourage moving production to Free countries, or alternately high enough to bring in significant revenue.

yawaraf says

The politicians who facilitated trade with the communists

🤡🤡🤡

"The American people support this agreement because they know it's good for jobs in America . And good for human rights. And the development of democracy in China."
Bill Clinton, 10 October 2000
https://www.c-span.org/.../trade-relations-with.../105973

I wonder if China can control Vietnam and other countries during this 90 days pause on tariffs.

I think Trump believes tariff blitzkrieg and shock and awe can get countries like Vietnam and South Korea to agree to decrease the trade deficit.

It's as though Trump is rushing to beat some deadline like the November 2026 midterms and/or to enact enough reforms such as with trade so that the next President, if Democrat, cannot undo or reverse them.

I was surprised too by Trump's sense of urgency as I thought he's moderately transition to address national security issues such as set up Defense Health Agency to create antibiotic and medical equipment manufacturing facilities run by universities, and even re-open government-owned shipyards to build navy and coast guard ships.

But as far as "micro electronics" I remember walking a Raytheon facility in the Virginia Tidewater region which manufactured electronics including circuit boards for the Navy such as for its AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense program.

I doubt any Chicom designed and manufactured electronics is part of the Pentagon's weapon systems and platforms like nuclear submarines, F-22's and F-35's, not like USA infrastructure which was hacked by Chicoms recently.

.

More like 110 years…

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/negentropy-monday-april-28-2025-c

Yahoo!Finance ran a story this weekend with this encouraging headline:

"Made-in-US clothing company CEO says tariffs are boosting demand"

American Giant founder and CEO Bayard Winthrop joined Yahoo’s Julie Hyman on Asking for a Trend, and the two discussed how tariffs have boosted the company’s sales, which sources and manufactures almost all of its products here in the US.

Bayard is optimistic. He said his clothing company isn’t worried about tariffs at all.

In the interview, Bayard told Julie that, “for us, when you make domestically, it is labor on which you're primarily paying a differential. The sources of fabric and things like that are are quite equal to our international competitors.” He continued, “But we think paying more for labor is a good thing. We think that good quality jobs in communities that need them, particularly low-skilled work, is a critical piece that's been missing in the American economy.”

It’s anecdotal, sure, but in other words: the plan is working, just like Trump’s team said it would.

AD says

I wonder if China can control Vietnam and other countries during this 90 days pause on tariffs.

There was a big meeting between Xi and Vietnam a week or so ago about standing up to the American Colonialist-Imperialist Tariffs together.

Vietnam basically yeah, yeah, whatever to Xi and then imposed sweeping controls on Country of Origin labelling.

There was also a massive crackdown in Malaysia when whistleblowers sent authorities video of a warehouse relabeling Chinese construction materials as Malaysian.

Vietnamese and Malaysian manufacturers are forcing their governments to stop Chinese fraudulent COO labeling to save their own ass against Trump retaliation.

We can just do things, and they have 2nd and 3rd order impacts!

.

I remember as a kid that Converse low top sneakers went from around $14 in 1978. That is about $75 today. They were made in the USA and were very rugged. They lasted at least 2 years from a lot of wear and tear.

Converse stopped manufacturing in the USA in 2001 when it went bankrupt. Now its primarily made in Vietnam.

.

China stops publishing economic numbers: unemployment claims, land sales numbers, land transaction values, and youth unemployment numbers. Some of this started some years ago.

China about to bend the knee but pretend to be tough at "Serendipity" Switzerland meeting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcwD7h79qOg

AmericanKulak says

China stops publishing economic numbers

China middle and working class extensively invest in residential real estate like condos than investing in stocks like through retirement plans.

But how can you even trust the Chicom economic statistics before COVID and after COVID , as well as especially now ?

.

AD says

AmericanKulak says

China stops publishing economic numbers

China middle and working class extensively invest in residential real estate like condos than investing in stocks like through retirement plans.

But how can you even trust the Chicom economic statistics before COVID and after COVID , as well as especially now ?

.

Correct.

And what happens when the Chinese people, whose only relatively safe investment/storehouse of wealth is housing, do when the economy slows and many try to dump their ghost city extra apartments all at once?

China is on the brink of political and social collapse. Thanks to Clinton, they have ICBM tech - reliability is the question, but they can certainly take out a few US cities. Trump meeting with Xi to give the slopes a face-saving solution?

stereotomy says

China is on the brink of political and social collapse.

I read that about 16% of China's exports are to the USA, and that only accounts for about 3% of its GDP.

About 23% of Vietnam's GDP is from exports to the USA.

But China is showing a willingness to negotiate with the Trump administration.

.

Just ran across this:

"China exports to Hong Kong, China worth US$ 297,538 million, with a partner share of 8.28 percent."

What? Hong Kong is in China.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/mission-possible-monday-may-12-2025

Tariffs, some reaching as high as 150%, will be dialed back to 10% across the board. China agreed to drop its tariffs and remove its “non-tariff countermeasures.” That last is code for unofficial punishments like regulatory harassment, slowed customs clearance, or just pretending the call went straight to voice mail.

More and more details coming out. Hopefully the de minimus rules stay in place.

The deal means “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%. The U.S.′ 20% duties on Chinese imports relating to fentanyl will remain in place, meaning total tariffs on China stand at 30%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/us-and-china-agree-to-slash-tariffs-for-90-days.html

We can do things.

https://www.binance.com/ru-KZ/square/post/05-13-2025-u-s-federal-government-reports-record-budget-surplus-in-april-24183815513369

U.S. Federal Government Reports Record Budget Surplus in April

According to BlockBeats, the U.S. Treasury Department's latest data reveals a federal budget surplus of $258 billion in April, marking the second-largest surplus on record and a 23% increase from the previous year. This surplus is primarily attributed to robust tax revenue during the tax season and record-breaking import tariff income. Total tariffs in April amounted to $16 billion, an increase of approximately $9 billion compared to the same period last year, significantly surpassing the previous record of $9.6 billion set two years ago. On average, tariffs contributed over $500 million daily to the U.S. Treasury.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/duly-processed-saturday-may-17-2025

Whoopsies! Sorry, experts. This week, Politico ran a story headlined, “Tariffs have little impact on prices, defying forecasts.” Unexpectedly!




On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent, the smallest increase since 2020— before the pandemic. And that was in spite of tariffs. It’s almost like Trump’s tariffs have had the opposite effect the experts sagely predicted.

An honest media would call the experts to account, and require them to explain why they were wrong. But Politico’s story lavishly applied the passive voice (“prices were expected to climb”), obscuring who was wrong, generously giving unreliable experts a pass. Oh well.

we need tariffs to go way higher, this 10% surrender isn’t cutting it. inflation is very visible still.

Fortwaye says

we need tariffs to go way higher, this 10% surrender isn’t cutting it. inflation is very visible still.

Agree, it has to be enough to stop slave labor. We should be making 90% of essentials and have the ability to make a 100% of defense down to the component level.

Hotwheels cost each about 60 cents ($5 in today's dollars) when first made in 1968

El Segundo , California was where Hot Wheels were made from 1968 to around 1977, then production shifted to Hong Kong, and then to China :-/

Like I said growing up in 1970s and 1980s , it was not impossible for working and middle class to buy nice things made in the USA like I remember Converse low top sneakers costing around $14 in 1978, and they seemed to last forever. Things were pricey like Commodore 64 and Coleco Mr Quarterback but not out of reach.



.

Also as far as my previous post, you could get a lot of second hand items like electronics from local thrift stores such as a TV or a Commodore 64 back in 1984 for around $80 (around $200 in today's dollars) and it lasted for a very long time as far as learning to program Basic and playing games or logging into a bulletin board system.

A federal court on Wednesday ruled President Trump does not have the authority under economic emergency legislation to impose sweeping global tariffs.

The U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling could bring the administration's trade war to a screeching halt.
By blocking entirely most categories of tariffs, the court effectively wiped out most of the regime Trump put in place since taking office.

The court, ruling in two separate cases, issued a summary judgment throwing out all the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.
Trump used the 1977 law, which had never before been invoked in a tariff situation, to unilaterally impose sweeping trade levies worldwide.
The two groups of plaintiffs — businesses and states — sued on the grounds that the president's orders violated the Constitution's grant of authority over import duties to Congress.

"The question in the two cases before the court is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 ("IEEPA") delegates these powers to the President in the form of authority to impose unlimited tariffs on goods from nearly every country in the world," the three-judge panel wrote.
"The court does not read IEEPA to confer such unbounded authority and sets aside the challenged tariffs imposed thereunder."

RWSGFY says

A federal court on Wednesday ruled President Trump does not have the authority under economic emergency legislation to impose sweeping global tariffs.

Another Ghey Court ruling outside their boundaries.

IEEPA has been used God-knows how many times from Carter to Reagan to Bush to Clinton to Bush II and even the Obammunist, though more narrowly.

The Court of International Trade has no jurisdiction as it's a civil court for trade disagreements, it has NO power to determine what is and what is not an emergency or interpret Constitutional Law. Conflicts between legislative and executive branches are Wayyyy outside it's narrow scope.

So they can suck a dick.

AmericanKulak says

IEEPA has been used God-knows how many times from Carter to Reagan to Bush to Clinton to Bush II and even the Obammunist, though more narrowly.

Not for tariffs.

BTW: "Tariffs imposed under a different legal authority called Section 232 — including on imports of autos, steel and aluminum — are unaffected by the ruling."

Donnie does have a proper vehicle to impose tariffs, so it remains to be seen who's gonna suck a dick on this one.

In other news a traffic court judge ruled that corporations are not people. -- So that's that.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

A federal court on Wednesday ruled President Trump does not have the authority under economic emergency legislation to impose sweeping global tariffs.

Another Ghey Court ruling outside their boundaries.

IEEPA has been used God-knows how many times from Carter to Reagan to Bush to Clinton to Bush II and even the Obammunist, though more narrowly.

The Court of International Trade has no jurisdiction as it's a civil court for trade disagreements, it has NO power to determine what is and what is not an emergency or interpret Constitutional Law. Conflicts between legislative and executive branches are Wayyyy outside it's narrow scope.

So they can suck a dick.

Pfff, if Donnie appeals it will go higher. Up to the SCOTUS eventually. The argument is solid: out of two legal vehicles available one explicitly allows tariffs and another does not, so it will take mucho pretzeling to justify why they prefer the latter over the former. (I have my suspicions if the reason, but this is not a kind the SCOTUS would buy as a valid one).

Misc says

In other news a traffic court judge ruled that corporations are not people. -- So that's that.

Trust me the corporations in Paraguay are shaking right now.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/literally-thursday-may-29-2025-c

Now this is getting ridiculous. The judges just unplugged Trump’s tariff dashboard, right in the middle of a game. Yesterday afternoon, Politico ran the latest judicial disappointment, headlined “Federal court strikes down Trump's tariffs on countries around the world.” Before we go any further, let me just say: Congress needs to do something. Anything! Stage a rally outside the Supreme Court, at least. Even better, do your jobs and pass some laws. But I digress. ...

I can only imagine how Trump’s legal team must be feeling. Now what? Not only did the court’s decision completely destroy all the deals currently in the system, and caused Trump to lose all his game progress, but adding gross insult to mortal injury, the order even requires the U.S. to pay back all the tariffs already collected. It’s like the courts are spending their credibility faster than drunken sailors on shore leave in a Thai brothel.

“An injunction would be extremely disruptive while the president is in the middle of foreign negotiations with other countries about trade deficits and about the fentanyl crisis,” Trump’s lawyer argued to the 3-judge panel. They ignored him. ...

The Constitution explicitly gave Congress the power to set tariffs. The trouble is, modern Congress is slow, ineffectual, and often can’t agree on which party gets the big office at the front of the building, never mind what to do about Chinese fentanyl. So, when countries declare economic war on the U.S., Congress can’t keep up. So over the years, they’ve created various laws and statutes designed to give the president a certain degree of flexibility and power, especially under declared emergencies.

Thus, President Trump has a variety of tariff tools available to him. One of them is a wordily named 1997 statute called IEEPA, which is the one Trump used to build his trade dashboard, and which the three judges in this case found don’t let him set tariffs at all. They wrote a lot, page after mind-numbing page, about predecessor statutes and what happened during Smoot-Hawley...

The judges must have known their reasoning was as thin as gas-station toilet paper. So they bolted on a second “but even if” reason. Even if they were wrong, they wrote, they would still strike the tariffs down under the Supreme Court’s “major questions” doctrine, which is a generalized and rarely-used “non-delegation” prohibition against letting Congress assign its Constitutional powers to other branches.

The “major questions” theory was even more suspect and subject to appellate revision than their obsessive-compulsive definition of “regulate.” Politico drily observed, “Ultimately, the case could end up at the Supreme Court.” ...

I remain optimistic about Trump’s chances on appeal, but it sure would also be helpful if Congress could weigh in. I realize the GOP lacks the Senatorial firepower to overcome what remains of the filibuster, but maybe it’s time for more nuking.

Don't clutch your pearls. The appellate Court ruled that the tariffs are still intact while under appeal. This gives the heads up that Trump's gonna win.

Misc says

Don't clutch your pearls. The appellate Court ruled that the tariffs are still intact while under appeal. This gives the heads up that Trump's gonna win.

Juicy.

Goes into the predictions thread.

BIG
BEAUTIFUL
TARIFFS

... and hardly anybody noticed them. Finally getting some big whopper Companies to pay some freakin' tax.

It’s not nothing: At May’s pace, these customs and excise taxes would amount to $288 billion per year, up by $190 billion from 2024.

Tariffs are taxes paid by businesses – some of the biggest of which pay little nor no income taxes in the US. Total corporate income tax receipts amounted to only $507 billion in 2024, or about 12.5% of the $4.1 trillion in pre-tax corporate profits, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

And an additional $190 billion in tariffs per year would be an increase of 37% of the taxes paid by corporations.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/02/revenues-from-tariffs-spiked-to-23-billion-in-may-up-by-168-in-3-months/

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/t-rex-wars-friday-june-6-2025-c-and

I told you so, part II. ABC, yesterday: “US trade deficit narrowed significantly amid Trump's tariff escalation.” Experts were baffled.

The U.S. global trade gap fell by more than half in April, as the U.S. chalked up a trade deficit of only about $61 billion in April, “marking a sharp decline from a $140 billion trade gap a month earlier.” In other words, in just one month, Trump’s tariffs have cut the trade deficit by more than half.