patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Oh wow, already we got Vietnam and several other nations talking about REAL free trade deals. These same countries were mouthing platitudes and doing a whole bunch of nothing for decades about reciprocity.



"But muh friendship and understanding due to trade". Go take a look at the belligerents in WW1. Had been each other's top trade partners by far.

Granted the more complexity then the more extended the supply chain and suppliers, which means likely parts used for assembly come from overseas.

But yes, I think it started with Nixon - Kissinger. Combine that with automation, computer-aided and robotic manufacturing.

That is how we got to 10% of the current workforce is in manufacturing. My guess is if it increases from 10% to at least 14% within next 18 months than Trump will declare another victory.

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Stunning to think of how much of the tax base was terminated by one-sided free trade.

Millions of manufacturing jobs, thousands of factories, easily a trillion a year in lost payroll, corporate, personal income, and property taxes at all levels of government. No counting the collapse in home values, rise in crime and health issues, broken homes, etc. due to deindustrialization.

Free Trade was very expensive and added a crapton to personal and government debt.

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

Patrick says

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

The guy mentions other NATO members in the context of fighting a war with China? LOL

Not habbening. They have big beautiful continent between them and China. 🤡

And, btw, rebuilding our lost industrial base will take years. Not sure how doing it in the middle of recession, inflation and falling capital markets while dealing with restrictions on supply of various minerals and equipment amid active trade war is better than doing it in more calm economic times.

PS. What happened to "not starting new wars and ending the old ones"? I'm old enough to remember certain political campaign running on exactly that.

Patrick says

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

I am not sure if we would have a prolonged conventional war with China. I do not think either side wants that.

The way the article is written is Trump wants robust supply chains of only made in the USA goods to adequately support the Pentagon. The article mentions micro electronics, bio manufacturing and batteries.

I think of what goes into the drones that Ukraine and Russia are using now against each other as that is the present and future of war. Think about those boxes of small drones with Ukraine soldiers (Chinese made and sold on Amazon ?) that are shown in news photos.

They could do that now by establishing Pentagon-owned manufacturing facilities to build the Pentagon goods with the workers educated at government-sponsored vocational / specialty schools.

We used to have Navy - owned shipyards like Brooklyn Shipyard that built Navy ships, so its the same concept.

We already have a lot of government sponsored or owned labs like Los Alamos.

The Chicoms have a lot of state owned or government owned industries, which export to other countries.

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I agree about the big concern with medicine and medical equipment having to be imported into the USA.

Are any antibiotics manufactured in the USA?
USAntibiotics is the only authorized U.S. manufacturer of Amoxicillin and Amoxicillin Clavulanate, commonly known as Amoxil® and Augmentin®. Today, these medications account for more than 30 percent of all antibiotics prescribed each year (in the USA).

China controls about 90% of global trade and production of antibiotics

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-has-cornered-the-market-on-antibiotics-so-the-u-s-must-rebuild-its-manufacturing-capacity-11619640612

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Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

RWSGFY says

Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

AmericanKulak says

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

RWSGFY says

Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

Not talking about trade war, but hot war, as mentioned in rhe article.

PS. Quoting parts of big messages is fucked up so I don't even bother, but it hurts clarity.

AmericanKulak says

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

I think people will just stop buying it. Probably have a wake up that it's all trash anyway. I'm only buying premium products moving forward.

My hair is thinning, but I finally found a shampoo that thickens and doesn't smell like a medical product. Might be $50/bottle. So Head and Shoulders going up to $15/bottle doesn't move me. And there's still cheap knock offs if you have good genetics hair wise.

I just don't see tariffs causing a big problem for 80-90% of people. Big corporations will have to negotiate if whoever is manufacturing ups their costs or move it back here. Housing is done here. Auto is generally done here. Food is mostly done here. Oil/gas is mostly done here. Fresh water out the ass. Literally what do we NEED from another country? If I have all the things listed I can live a good life.

AmericanKulak says

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

I think price this low hurts our "drill, baby, drill" as the average break-even price point is slightly north of it, iirc, but don't quote me on this.

I propose a 1000% tariff on all Teslas produced on Mars.

WookieMan says

I just don't see tariffs causing a big problem

Especially since manufacturers can move production to the US or at least out of China.

China tariffs up to 125%, effective immediately.

MAGA baby.

stereotomy says

China tariffs up to 125%, effective immediately.

MAGA baby.

I know everyone has bought Chinese crap. Does anyone actually NEED it? No. Americans will stop buying once the $10 item turning into $30 because we know it's all junk. Who is losing there? We stop buying shit we don't need.

President Trump on Wednesday said he’s pausing his reciprocal tariffs on nations that didn’t retaliate against the U.S. for 90 days, a notable concession as his trade plan threatened to broil the trade war.

Mr. Trump said the tariffs on those nations would drop to 10%, placing them in line with his blanket tariff level on all imports.

At the same time, Mr. Trump said he’s increasing the tariff rate on China to 125%, effective immediately, citing Beijing’s move to retaliate and increase its levy on U.S. goods from 34% to 84%.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/apr/9/trump-pauses-reciprocal-tariffs-many-nations-90-days/



LOL, "Thank you for your attention to this matter" hahaha

S&P and DJIA up over 7% in just minutes.

PANICANS should have HODL

"ReEeEee, how can we support our scores of $100k DEI administrators if we don't have foreign money? Who will lecture incomprehensibly to 100 students in the lecture hall about Calculus and Chemistry while rummaging through the R&D grants?! " - Stanford, Brown, etc.

AmericanKulak says

S&P and DJIA up over 7% in just minutes.

PANICANS should have HODL

Or bought. I don't like stock predictions as it's an easy way to be wrong with documentation. Hindsight is 20/20, but I felt it was a good time to buy late last week and early this week. The quick correction seemed over exaggerated. If I'm not putting money where my prediction is I stay quiet.

Good on those that bought. I'm not investing, but I think it's coming back up even more is my gut feeling. I still don't understand how people don't get this. If Trump can get a country to say lower a 10% tariff to 5 or even 0%, all our goods became cheaper. We've been the worlds bitch for 30 years plus. He's trying to stop inflation and get more jobs back here. That's a win/win for most people. Cost of goods go down and you can have a job.

RWSGFY says

Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

Yeah, look at the reception that the Russian reserve force had when they reached west of Kiev.

It did not work out that the Ukraine people and government quickly capitulated. That region is not like Donbas as far as pro Russian sentiment.

Now eastern regions such as Kharkiv and Sumy even have a lot less pro Russian sentiment.

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“WTF just happened?” — China

I'll bet two things happened:
A. Countries were begging for time
B. China was trying to create a "Coalition" to pressure Trump.

So Trump pulled the rug from under the Chinese while looking magnanimous.

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https://seekingalpha.com/news/4429839-amazon-pulls-the-plug-on-china-orders-leaving-vendors-in-the-lurch

Amazon is cancelling orders from China. So China exports to Vietnam and other nearby countries who then repackage the Chinese made goods to be sold to USA ?

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Companies have been moving factories from China to Vietnam piece by piece since Trump 1.0.

ElYorsh says

Companies have been moving factories from China to Vietnam piece by piece since Trump 1.0.

Vietnam is just a front for Chinese made goods.

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AmericanKulak says

“WTF just happened?” — China

I'll bet two things happened:
A. Countries were begging for time
B. China was trying to create a "Coalition" to pressure Trump.

Read how the Chicoms are obstructing the establishment of Apple factories in India.

The Chicoms will find other ways besides exporting goods to Vietnam who then turns around and sells them to USA.

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Saw a Bush China Center spox ranting about tariffs.

The Bush-China Center receives 90% of it's funding from the CCP-run China-US Exchange Council.

It's literally a Communist-funded institution.

https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/us-economic-model-wasnt-sustainable

Even Nancy was on the right page at one time.
1996

https://youtu.be/CAyricurDKg?si=0hM3kgsVbS2jHfIv

19th Best day in DJIA history, thanks to TRUMP!

Ah, I didn't hear it was paused only for countries that didn't retaliate, but that seems to be true:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14589357/trump-90-day-tariff-pause-plan-china.html

The president said: 'I did a 90 day pause for the people that didn't retaliate, because they told them, if you retaliate, we're going to double it. And that's what I did with China, because they did retaliate. So we'll see how it all works out. I think it's going to work out amazing.'

Doesn't it remind you of when Lucy would snatch football away just as Charlie Brown wanted to kick it?

RWSGFY says

rebuilding our lost industrial base will take years

Maybe 2 at the most, if you are actually trying. I used to design and build electric power plants. It's been done before in around 18 months. In this particular case the contractor did get a bonus for early completion and stuff. They were doing things like pitching a tent over the jobsite and heating it to 50 degrees in the winter so construction could continue.

zzyzzx says

They were doing things like pitching a tent over the jobsite and heating it to 50 degrees in the winter so construction could continue.

We literally just did this on the house in 20ºF temps to pour the foundation. If you're in an industrial area, you can also build 24/7 if needed. Anything manufacturing will be in these zones.

Regulations are the bitch. So the states with the least will get the most new jobs/builds. A 100k sq. ft structure can be built in 1-2 months now. I think people watch too many Peter Zeihan videos as every thing will take a decade to build out.

I drive towards Chicago maybe once a month and boom, there's a new massive warehouse that could be a manufacturing plant. Equipment I don't know about with regards to supply chain, but it's not hard to build in the right places. So equipment and employees is the only hurdle and as you say that could easily be done in 18 months.

Anyone who thinks complex manufacturing can be moved stateside in weeks should look at how the objectively the most fast-moving and efficient of all modern industrialst did that:

Tesla's Gigafactory in Texas, also known as Giga Texas, took approximately 21 months to complete its construction. The process began in July 2020, and the factory officially opened with the "Cyber Rodeo" event on April 7, 2022

Reality is a bitch.

Eric Holder says

Anyone who thinks complex manufacturing can be moved stateside in weeks should look at how the objectively the most fast-moving and efficient of all modern industrialst did that:

Nobody thinks that. But we're not postponing the end of the disastrous import-dependent economy we've have for over 30 years. That's ending, period.

The reality was the shift to Globaloney and mass importing created the most unstable, anemic growth in US History.

AmericanKulak says

Eric Holder says

Anyone who thinks complex manufacturing can be moved stateside in weeks should look at how the objectively the most fast-moving and efficient of all modern industrialst did that:

Nobody thinks that. But we're not postponing the end of the disastrous import-dependent economy we've have for over 30 years. That's ending, period.

The reality was the shift to Globaloney and mass importing created the most unstable, anemic growth in US History.

It can be done in a year. Stop believing dip shits that think they know geopolitics. Building something is exponentially different than creating something and has nothing to do with geography.

WookieMan says

It can be done in a year. Stop believing dip shits that think they know geopolitics. Building something is exponentially different than creating something and has nothing to do with geography.

Correct. WW2 is one illustration. How modern plants move FROM the US and built a plant rapidly in the THIRD WORLD in about a year is another example.

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

It can be done in a year. Stop believing dip shits that think they know geopolitics. Building something is exponentially different than creating something and has nothing to do with geography.

Correct. WW2 is one illustration. How modern plants move FROM the US and built a plant rapidly in the THIRD WORLD in about a year is another example.

I actually liked Peter Ziehan at first. But when you watch it everything is a fucking decade. Industrial build out. People listen to this shit. "OMG it's going to take a decade to fix this." You can build any factory under a years time. Trump knows this. He's built things. Peter and Congress haven't. We have lazy idiots in government and media that have no fucking clue about anything. Then regulate the shit out of it.

AmericanKulak says

Eric Holder says

Anyone who thinks complex manufacturing can be moved stateside in weeks should look at how the objectively the most fast-moving and efficient of all modern industrialst did that:

Nobody thinks that. But we're not postponing the end of the disastrous import-dependent economy we've have for over 30 years. That's ending, period.

So we should've done it gradually, building up domestic manufacturing over several years and reducing imports as new plants come online.

With this immediate 145% tariff idiocy we'll have to deal with massive price inflation and/or shortages. Basically the same shit we endured during the coofdemic.

There are many ways to skin a cat and this particular one makes no sense to me.

RWSGFY says

building up domestic manufacturing over several years

Trump doesn't even consider 'gradually', he doesn't have several years.
Also he has seen that anything that takes that long is easily derailed.