patrick.net

People who are truly intelligent know when they were wrong about something. Usually when smart people are wrong, it’s because they have flawed assumptions.

I was once a staunch advocate of the system we called “free trade.” (Even though it was really not free trade, so for purposes of this post I’ll call the restrictive reality “globalist free trade.") My support for globalist free trade was based on the following four assumptions:

1. Globalist free trade will result in fair trade policies honored by all nations.

2. Countries like China, Myanmar and Vietnam will abandon their tyrannical governments and oppressive social conventions once globalist free trade is in place, and will join the world of free, peaceful, democratic societies.

3. Globalist free trade will make unskilled workers in poor countries into a robust middle class.

4. US manufacturing jobs will leave, but all American citizens will then have robust opportunities in the knowledge economy that will raise the standards of living for all.

These four assumptions underpinned all support for globalist free trade.

All four of these assumptions were badly, badly wrong. They were wildly off the mark.

Today, our intelligentsia are unable to do what I did (admit my assumptions were wrong) and instead cling to the same Chamber of Commerce 1990s rhetoric that brought us to this hellscape.

The mark of true intelligence is the ability to admit you were wrong. Our self-appointed “elites” are showing us in the tariffs argument just how unintelligent they actually are.

https://x.com/CynicalPublius/status/1908597559402307916

Analysis by a specialist in the field of defence economics:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nVZ1lcw2bVU&t=11s

From the internets:

I keep hearing people interpret the cost of tariffs incorrectly. Let's use an example with easy math.

I import 100 pairs of sneakers from a foreign country to sell in my home country. Each shoe costs me $100 to produce, package and ship to my warehouse. My total customs declaration is $10,000. If the tariff is 10%, then I pay $1,000 to the Customs and Border Patrol. My total cost for the sneakers is $11,000.

I now have a choice. Do I pass the $10 cost increase per sneaker to my customers, or do I accept a smaller profit margin? The answer, of course, depends on the price sensitivity of my customers.

What I keep hearing from people is that the tariff is on the retail value of the goods, and the price is going to increase by the tariff rate. This is not at all how it works. Please, conduct a bit of research for yourself. Trust but verify.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

From the internets:

I keep hearing people interpret the cost of tariffs incorrectly. Let's use an example with easy math.

I import 100 pairs of sneakers from a foreign country to sell in my home country. Each shoe costs me $100 to produce, package and ship to my warehouse. My total customs declaration is $10,000. If the tariff is 10%, then I pay $1,000 to the Customs and Border Patrol. My total cost for the sneakers is $11,000.

I now have a choice. Do I pass the $10 cost increase per sneaker to my customers, or do I accept a smaller profit margin? The answer, of course, depends on the price sensitivity of my customers.

What I keep hearing from people is that the tariff is on the retail value of the goods, and the price is going to increase by the tariff rate. This is not at all how it works. Please, conduct a bit of research for yourself. Trust but verify.

This one particularly goes out to Mister Mish. The Wolfman at Wolf Street gets it.

Jackson County, Florida borders Alabama.

https://www.facebook.com/gopbaptist/posts/10213231594381062

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https://www.breitbart.com/pre-viral/2025/04/05/trump-tariffs-praised-by-u-s-shrimp-harvesters-president-threw-us-a-lifeline/

Trump Tariffs Praised by U.S. Shrimp Harvesters: President ‘Threw Us A Lifeline’

“The U.S. domestic shrimp industry has been on a downward trajectory for decades now as a direct result of the unfair trade in the overseas aquaculture industry for growing shrimp overseas,” Leann Borsarge, the COO of Bosarge Boats, told Fox Business on Friday.

“And these tariffs threw us a lifeline that we needed to hopefully live to fight another day in our industry in this country,” Borsarge added.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced a baseline levy of 10 percent on imports from foreign countries and “individualized reciprocal higher” tariffs on certain countries, which shrimp harvesters believe will help them compete against the foreign shrimp industry.

A staggering 94 percent of shrimp eaten in the United States is reportedly imported from foreign countries — typically India, Ecuador, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Argentina.

Except... Trump just eliminated tariffs on all Argentine goods.

Patrick says

Except... Trump just eliminated tariffs on all Argentine goods.

There's a free trade deal in the works in Argentina. Milei was just there. Could be Yuge!

Patrick says

Except... Trump just eliminated tariffs on all Argentine goods.

How many people actually eat shrimp frequently? Not allergic, but I've never liked it.

Either way what's gonna happen with these tariffs is Argentina will sell it at the same price as domestic now. It will lower the price overall in time. Argentina has to ship it and we just do it off shore. The margins get better for domestic products and prices lower.

Domestic suppliers can sell more shrimp at lower prices, but higher revenue. Argentina will have to sell lower to keep up with our domestic shrimp market because of shipping to the states. Basically it's a gain to our local businesses shrimping.

WookieMan says

How many people actually eat shrimp frequently?

maybe at most we eat it in our home about once or twice a month and we live in the Florida panhandle near a few seafood stores , and its the frozen breaded butterfly shrimp sold as Great Value brand at Walmart

i've been reading that the Florida government has been issuing grants for aquaculture

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/business/2014/05/07/nations-largest-shrimp-farm-opens-florida/15796509007/

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AD says

WookieMan says

How many people actually eat shrimp frequently?

maybe at most we eat it in our home about once or twice a month and we live in the Florida panhandle near a few seafood stores , and its the frozen breaded butterfly shrimp sold as Great Value brand at Walmart

i've been reading that the Florida government has been issuing grants for aquaculture

target="_blank">https://www.jacksonville.com/story/business/2014/05/07/nations-largest-shrimp-farm-opens-florida/15796509007/

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I've had good seafood down there. I just don't like shrimp. I don't get it to be honest. Obviously IL is going to have shit for seafood. Beef, pork and bird is the midwest. Also pizza. Not deep dish. Northern IL and all of Wisconsin has the best pizza in the country.

I dislike Dave Portnoy and his pizza reviews. He's clearly biased as can be to the northeast. You have the best and freshest cheese where I live.

If I'm gonna eat seafood it would be FL. Even at a high end restaurant here it's gamey and fishy smelling. I'm out.

What if the tariffs work so well that businesses reshore their manufacturing back to the continent, and so many Chinese lose their jobs that China is forced to put them to work as soldiers that start marching west to take over India and Pakistan and whatever else they can hold, probably ultimately would seek land all the way to the Persian gulf if they can manage it. This could be China’s last stand. I don’t think China can survive the coming demographic nightmare if they don’t have the support of its economic/manufacturing success. Destroying its manufacturing industry could force them to start a real war.

That being said, it was only a matter of time before China goes to war. They seem to want war more than Russia wanted war.

WookieMan says

He's clearly biased as can be to the northeast.

It's where modern Pizza was invented.

PeopleUnited says

That being said, it was only a matter of time before China goes to war. They seem to want war more than Russia wanted war.

You think China has it bad ???? Look at Europe. Unless they increase tariffs massively, Europe will be pretty much be de-industrialized over the next few years. Their Defense spending will be the only thing keeping their economies functioning.

Misc says

You think China has it bad ???? Look at Europe. Unless they increase tariffs massively, Europe will be pretty much be de-industrialized over the next few years. Their Defense spending will be the only thing keeping their economies functioning.

And Muslims already have an armory in their Mosque, so they don't and won't join the EU militaries.

WookieMan says

How many people actually eat shrimp frequently? Not allergic, but I've never liked it.

Have you made gambas al ajillo? It's the bomb, and super easy:

Heat olive oil to just about smoking, add a lot of sliced garlic and some crushed red pepper, then fry the shrimp in that. Make sure they are about at room temp before throwing them in so that they cook through quickly. The only way to mess it up is to overcook the shrimp. Or to set the kitchen on fire. Use chunks of a baguette to sop up the oil too when you're eating the shrimp.

It might just be my favorite meal. Excellent with a beer.

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

He's clearly biased as can be to the northeast.

It's where modern Pizza was invented.

Yeah, that doesn't much matter. Tesla is/was out in CA and NV. It's for sure not a car for my uses, but it's a better car than most. Detroit was automotive capital of the world and look at it now. It's getting better, but it's still a shit show outside of downtown. So the first location to make pizza makes the best? And no, I don't eat deep dish pizza. That's trash and not Chicago pizza.

Just because it was the first doesn't mean it was the best. Most you guys don't get Wisconsin cheese. We have some of the best pizza here if you use good ingredients. Freshest pork and beef. Can you get good seafood or fresh water fish in Chicago? Probably. I'd rather go to Maine, Florida or Alaska. Gotta go to the source of the ingredients. The northeast just doesn't have what the midwest does.

PeopleUnited says

want war more than Russia wanted war.

That's impossible. 😂

Australian beef producers are happy:

Australia's beef industry is feeling relieved, as Trump's 10% tariff on the country's products is not enough to shrink beef exports to the United States running at record levels averaging $275 million a month in the six months to February, industry insiders said.

Meanwhile, tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by China, along with Beijing deciding not to renew the local registration of hundreds of U.S. meat facilities, threaten U.S. beef exports to China worth around $125 million a month, giving Australia and others such as Brazil, Argentina and New Zealand an opportunity to increase their shipments.
"I'm not too stressed by 10%," said Andrew McDonald, whose Bindaree Food Group runs meat processing facilities in Australia and ships beef to the United States.
He said the tariff announcement had revived interest in Australian beef from U.S. buyers who had paused orders for weeks while waiting to see what Trump's tariff action would look like, and that demand for Australian beef into China was rising.

U.S. beef imports are high after years of dry weather shrank cattle numbers to their lowest since the 1950s, reducing production and raising local prices. Analysts said it will take years for domestic production to grow.
Australia, with a herd swelled by wet weather, is flush with supply and has become the biggest shipper to the U.S., offering lower prices and lean cuts that the U.S. lacks.
Imported Australian lean trim beef in the U.S. was priced around $3.12 a pound - or almost half a kilogram - before the tariff, said Rabobank analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

The tariff lifted that to $3.43 a pound, still well below the local product which was priced around $3.80, he said, adding just 2.5 cents to the cost of a quarter-pounder made partly from Australian beef.
While extra costs are likely to be shared through the supply chain, a sharp fall in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar means Australian producers will feel little pain, analysts said. A cheaper currency is an incentive for U.S. buyers to increase purchases and means Australian sellers receive more local currency per U.S. dollar they receive.

https://apple.news/A6p5jAmrnQOSfmex0K8Ra1Q

Trump needs to issue an executive order that smartphones and laptops used by the US Military be wholly US manufactured by 2027 from CPU to screen. Wayyy too risky to have these things coming from rival and infamous cyberspy CHYna. Can always allow some components to be made in friendly countries until then.

If Wall Street complains it should have a bunch of rubber dildos rammed down it's mouth until it finally stops complaining. Too risky, only a greedy idiot would allow vital US communications/electronics devices to be made in CHYna.

WookieMan says

The northeast just doesn't have what the midwest does.

Two things in life: If I see non-Chinese or non-Italians working in a Chinese or Italian restaurant, I'm out.

Refrigeration makes all this fresh stuff moot. I doubt a Thunder Bay pizza (never heard of it) has cheese on it that was set a few days ago. It's Sysco stuff sent 100s of miles away to be packaged and then shipped back, probably.

The Bush Institute, who knows a lot about deficit spending, open borders, sucking off China, and the importance of "Shopping", whinges about Tariffs in Fall 2018.

Tariffs Are Great – If You Like Raising Prices, Undermining Jobs, and Inhibiting Innovation
An Essay by Matthew Rooney, Managing Director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative
https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/opportunity-road/rooney-tariffs-rising-prices

AmericanKulak says

Trump needs to issue an executive order that smartphones and laptops used by the US Military be wholly US manufactured by 2027 from CPU to screen.

Why not tomorrow?

The journey of 1000 miles of reindustrialization starts with the first step.

AmericanKulak says

The journey of 1000 miles of reindustrialization starts with the first step.

But-but-but some argued on this very site that if you don't charge them BIG BEAUTIFUL TARIFFS right now, nobody would make that fist step. 🙄

Oh wow, already we got Vietnam and several other nations talking about REAL free trade deals. These same countries were mouthing platitudes and doing a whole bunch of nothing for decades about reciprocity.



"But muh friendship and understanding due to trade". Go take a look at the belligerents in WW1. Had been each other's top trade partners by far.

AmericanKulak says

Oh wow, already we got Vietnam and several other nations talking about REAL free trade deals. These same countries were mouthing platitudes and doing a whole bunch of nothing for decades about reciprocity.



"But muh friendship and understanding due to trade". Go take a look at the belligerents in WW1. Had been each other's top trade partners by far.

Granted the more complexity then the more extended the supply chain and suppliers, which means likely parts used for assembly come from overseas.

But yes, I think it started with Nixon - Kissinger. Combine that with automation, computer-aided and robotic manufacturing.

That is how we got to 10% of the current workforce is in manufacturing. My guess is if it increases from 10% to at least 14% within next 18 months than Trump will declare another victory.

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Stunning to think of how much of the tax base was terminated by one-sided free trade.

Millions of manufacturing jobs, thousands of factories, easily a trillion a year in lost payroll, corporate, personal income, and property taxes at all levels of government. No counting the collapse in home values, rise in crime and health issues, broken homes, etc. due to deindustrialization.

Free Trade was very expensive and added a crapton to personal and government debt.

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

Patrick says

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

The guy mentions other NATO members in the context of fighting a war with China? LOL

Not habbening. They have big beautiful continent between them and China. 🤡

And, btw, rebuilding our lost industrial base will take years. Not sure how doing it in the middle of recession, inflation and falling capital markets while dealing with restrictions on supply of various minerals and equipment amid active trade war is better than doing it in more calm economic times.

PS. What happened to "not starting new wars and ending the old ones"? I'm old enough to remember certain political campaign running on exactly that.

Patrick says

https://dannydayan.substack.com/p/the-end-goal

Article argues that the real goal of tariffs is to be able to fight a war with China and win.

I am not sure if we would have a prolonged conventional war with China. I do not think either side wants that.

The way the article is written is Trump wants robust supply chains of only made in the USA goods to adequately support the Pentagon. The article mentions micro electronics, bio manufacturing and batteries.

I think of what goes into the drones that Ukraine and Russia are using now against each other as that is the present and future of war. Think about those boxes of small drones with Ukraine soldiers (Chinese made and sold on Amazon ?) that are shown in news photos.

They could do that now by establishing Pentagon-owned manufacturing facilities to build the Pentagon goods with the workers educated at government-sponsored vocational / specialty schools.

We used to have Navy - owned shipyards like Brooklyn Shipyard that built Navy ships, so its the same concept.

We already have a lot of government sponsored or owned labs like Los Alamos.

The Chicoms have a lot of state owned or government owned industries, which export to other countries.

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I agree about the big concern with medicine and medical equipment having to be imported into the USA.

Are any antibiotics manufactured in the USA?
USAntibiotics is the only authorized U.S. manufacturer of Amoxicillin and Amoxicillin Clavulanate, commonly known as Amoxil® and Augmentin®. Today, these medications account for more than 30 percent of all antibiotics prescribed each year (in the USA).

China controls about 90% of global trade and production of antibiotics

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-has-cornered-the-market-on-antibiotics-so-the-u-s-must-rebuild-its-manufacturing-capacity-11619640612

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Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

RWSGFY says

Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

AmericanKulak says

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

RWSGFY says

Nobody usually wants a prolonged war, they want a blitzkrieg. Most of the time they get the prolonged war instead. The most recent example of a 3-day war entering its 4th year is right in front of our eyes.

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

Not talking about trade war, but hot war, as mentioned in rhe article.

PS. Quoting parts of big messages is fucked up so I don't even bother, but it hurts clarity.

AmericanKulak says

Well, we make our own food. We'll have to deal with Pink Plastic Lawn Flamingoes and Shein hair accessories going up substantially. We'll survive.

I think people will just stop buying it. Probably have a wake up that it's all trash anyway. I'm only buying premium products moving forward.

My hair is thinning, but I finally found a shampoo that thickens and doesn't smell like a medical product. Might be $50/bottle. So Head and Shoulders going up to $15/bottle doesn't move me. And there's still cheap knock offs if you have good genetics hair wise.

I just don't see tariffs causing a big problem for 80-90% of people. Big corporations will have to negotiate if whoever is manufacturing ups their costs or move it back here. Housing is done here. Auto is generally done here. Food is mostly done here. Oil/gas is mostly done here. Fresh water out the ass. Literally what do we NEED from another country? If I have all the things listed I can live a good life.

AmericanKulak says

WTI Crude now well below $60, first time in 4 years

I think price this low hurts our "drill, baby, drill" as the average break-even price point is slightly north of it, iirc, but don't quote me on this.

I propose a 1000% tariff on all Teslas produced on Mars.

WookieMan says

I just don't see tariffs causing a big problem

Especially since manufacturers can move production to the US or at least out of China.

China tariffs up to 125%, effective immediately.

MAGA baby.