patrick.net

I once asked a great expert on the Middle East what one thing he wished people outside the region understood. It was this. Countries like America think in two-year electoral cycles — four years at the absolute most.

But all the time, we have to try to understand and negotiate with groups and governments that think of a decade as the smallest fraction of time.

As it happens, that is also the case with Putin.

While Witkoff seems unfamiliar with what happened in 2014 or 2022*, he is facing a Russian president perfectly happy to discuss what happened way back in the 8th century.

This is even more the case in the Middle East. There, too, Trump promised spectacular successes. He even said that if the Israeli hostages were not all released by the time of his inauguration, then there would be hell to pay.

No ‘hell’ unleashed

But there are still dozens of Israeli hostages (including one born in New Jersey) being held in the dungeons of Gaza. And when Trump has said that he would unleash hell on Hamas, he seems to have meant that he might encourage the Israelis to go back in on the ground in Gaza. That feels like a weak answer to a big question: what to do about Hamas? How to finish them off?

One reason why Hamas is not finished off is that they seem — again — to have run rings around Witkoff. Two months into his negotiations, in March, Witkoff admitted Hamas might have duped him into pretending it wanted a deal.

Hamas? Duped? A murderous death cult behaving unreliably? Whatever next.

Who could have expected that?

Except everybody.

Perhaps the problem is that one of the keys to unlocking the problem of Hamas is for America to put pressure on one of the terror group’s key funders and hosts — the terrorist-loving state of Qatar.

Yet you will be hard pressed to hear a single negative said about the terrorist-supporting state from Witkoff.

The Israel-Gaza war could end tomorrow if the Qataris felt even the most minimal pressure from America. But when they have done the least possible thing in negotiations, they get only salivating praise from Witkoff. Asked about them early in the stringing-along process, Witkoff memorably said the Qataris were doing “God’s work.” I’d hate to think how Witkoff imagines the devil if he sees ­angels in Qatar.

Envoy’s ‘Iran’ problem

But it is with the Iranian revolutionary government that Trump’s envoy is running into his biggest problem.

When Barack Obama was president, he signed the US into nuclear negotiations with the ayatollahs known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It saw the US and various other allies being mercilessly mislead by the mullahs. Out of office, Trump rightly blasted the deal and removed America from the negotiations. He understood the West was being outplayed. He also understood that one of the best ­pieces of leverage anyone has over the revolutionary government in Iran is sanctions.

Trump snuffed out the mullahs’ economy and the revolutionary movement suffered. But then in 2020, Biden came in and gave the Iranians a cash windfall. Suddenly the Ayatollahs were rich again. Meaning that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis were rich, too. None of which has worked out well for Israel or anyone else in the region.

Now it looks like Witkoff is being hooked by the ayatollahs into an “Obama” process. The Iranian regime is still racing for the bomb. Trump has said he wants a deal. But the ayatollahs are still riding hig

In Iran — as in Russia — this country’s foes have made a calculation. Trump himself has made great promises and great statements. But his negotiator has been hooked into negotiations. And the Kremlin, Iran, Qatar, Hamas and the rest of them have reckoned that they can string America along very nicely.

A few more weeks will become a few more months and then a few more years. And then — no Trump — and behold a weaker American leader who will lead America and the world into a far worse place.

I wonder which will happen first, commercial fusion or an Iranian nuke. Both are always 10-15 years away from immanently happening.

Wow, I lost my apple - 2 ignores!

Israel is trying to get us in a war with Iran for the past 22 years and hasn't succeeded. Instead, 3 of the past 4 past administrations unfroze Iranian assets and sent them airplane loads of cash. And their proxy Houthis attacked 6 US Ships last year in international waters.

Remember, one ship attacked by mistake 60 years ago is unforgiveable. 6 ships attacked on purpose last year means give peace a chance

Witkoff is reliable. As in "you can count on him to fail".

Witkoff is a magician: talking to both Kremlin and Iran regimes and getting great results.

Great job Stevie! What a beautiful deal with Iran have you brokered. 🤡

Donnie was not impressed with Barak's neg skills.



Stevie's are worse.

RWSGFY says

You can thank Stevie Witkoff personally for this new war: he went to Iran to make a big beautiful deal and retuned running his mouth about how it's totally natural and acceptable to allow Iran to continue enrichment. Seeing this and fearing being railroaded into an unacceptable arrangement Bibi started the war 2 days before next scheduled meetinge between Stevie and Iranians. Basically Stevie provoked Bibi into taking this action. Why didn't he anticipate any of this? Because Stevie Witkoff is a stupid cunt.

Goes to negotiate, returns with an "agreement", can't even articulate what was "agreed":

REUTERS: “Trump's special representative, Steve Witkoff, violated diplomatic protocol in Moscow when he went to the Kremlin on August 6 for a meeting with Putin without a stenographer and a representative from the U.S. State Department.”

“As a result, Washington does not have an official record of the Kremlin's proposals, which caused uncertainty about exactly what Putin told Witkoff or did not tell him.”

▪️ We remind you that during talks with European leaders, Witkoff initially stated that Putin was ready to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in exchange for concessions from Kyiv regarding Donbas, but the next day, during a coordinated video conference with security advisors, he admitted that the Russian president had not made such specific proposals.