patrick.net

DeficitHawk says

How much debt-to-GDP do you think can be sustained without triggering a crisis? Today debt-to-GDP is ~120% and we will spend ~20% of our tax revenues to service this debt.

America is the least bad of all the bad investments a person can make. If that changes, then who knows? I can’t think of a better place to invest in now though. And that is why the chatter about this bill is silly. A bill will be passed. Nobody will be entirely happy with it. Some people will feel betrayed or accuse the other side of hypocrisy. But we won’t have hyperinflation.

PeopleUnited says

America is the least bad of all the bad investments a person can make. If that changes, then who knows?

I hear this a lot... if all you have is dirty shirts, which is the least dirty shirt? thats the one to wear.... Thats like the american bond market vs all the other bond markets. But what if all the shirts are so dirty you decide not to wear a shirt today?

Why do people have to keep buying sovereign debt at all? What happens when they decide to put their money into some other asset class entirely and just not attend the Treasury bond auctions at all? They can buy precious metals or ammo and yams, or whatever they want to buy.

You may think differently, but I dont think a 30 year US bond is a safe investment at all. I am pretty sure I will be able to redeem it at nominal value, but in 30 years, the nominal value in monopoly money may have less purchasing power than I'd invested today. I'd be better off buying gold.

Boy, I hope the US economy doesn't collapse as these two vital workers we're wasting tax dollars on arresting don't show up for whatever vital job they do at some Leftist NGO.

AmericanKulak says

Boy, I hope the US economy doesn't collapse as these two vital workers we're wasting tax dollars on arresting don't show up for whatever vital job they do at some Leftist NGO.

follow the money , as I won't be surprised that the federal grant money from USAID, EPA, etc makes it to these left wing domestic terrorists via "pass throughs" like Act Blue and Bend The Arc

.

DeficitHawk says

You may think differently, but I dont think a 30 year US bond is a safe investment at all. I am pretty sure I will be able to redeem it at nominal value, but in 30 years, the nominal value in monopoly money may have less purchasing power than I'd invested today. I'd be better off buying gold.

Right now the 6 month Treasury is at 4.3%. I would just buy short term bonds.

Vanguard's Total Bond Market ETF (ticker BND) has had an inflation adjusted CAGR of around 0.5% since its inception in 2007.

It did drop about 30% during 2022 to 2024 in price because of interest rates increasing essentially from 0% to late 1990 levels which explains the low CAGR.

AD says

Right now the 6 month Treasury is at 4.3%. I would just buy short term bonds.

Exactly, thats what I am doing. SGOV. (0-3 months) And gold. And ammo. Not yams though, I find they don't store well as some would have us believe.

Im not really a financial person, but I just don't see the rationale for investing in long term government debt if you dont trust the politicians will control deficit spending.

DeficitHawk says

Im not really a financial person, but I just don't see the rationale for investing in long term government debt if you dont trust the politicians will control deficit spending.

I ran a Google Gemini AI query and it said CBO is projected the Fiscal Year 2025 deficit will be the same as the 2024 deficit. That would be the first time the deficit did not increase (as least adjusting for inflation) since 2000.

I'm in wait and see mode until next February as far as trade deficit, federal government deficit and debt, and manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total jobs.

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DeficitHawk says

Why do people have to keep buying sovereign debt at all?

Not sure, laziness/ignorance probably. There are better investments.

“Buying“ debt, should be risky. Even sovereign debt is a bad investment in my opinion. Why would anyone think it is a good idea is beyond me.

Real estate (if you can buy low), stocks and precious metals is a better way to beat or at least keep pace with inflation if not build wealth. That and a pension. It is free money. There is nothing better than free money. That is why the US will be OK. We have a nearly limitless supply of free money. The fed and the treasury can both create money out of thin air, and even buy those bonds you are so concerned about.

There is one thing that separates a thriving economy from a dying economy: The ability to secure the resources necessary to produce more this year than last year. Production includes products, assets and In America’s case, printing money. When people decide they don’t want dollars, then we are in trouble. For now, everyone wants them, though supposedly Saddam wanted to stop using them, and he was killed if you recall.

Seems to me we are going the way of Greece. BTW, whatever happened to raids on employers to see how many illegals worked there?

PeopleUnited says

The fed and the treasury can both create money out of thin air, and even buy those bonds you are so concerned about.

This is my point, and my worry. Once the government becomes the primary buyer of its own debt, we are headed to Zimbabwe-Bucks money.

I am trying to say that fiscal discipline is important even to a country as big and powerful as USA. Not just to a small country like Zimbabwe. If it cant contain its deficit spending... even if its bond market is the least bad looking bond market in the world... eventually people will stop buying bonds and the money will devalue to monopoly money status as the government becomes the only buyer of its own debt.

People want to act like the USA does not have to operate with fiscal discipline. MMT, Krugman, Keynsians, whatever. But I dont believe it. "Spending and tax cuts produce more growth than debt" they say... and yet our debt-to-GDP ratios keep rising... I think there will be consequences. Just hard to know when we reach a breaking point.

And now he wants a "SKINNY" BBB bill. Guess what funding and enforcement he wants to claw way back?

"I can't believe we're accumulating so much high levels of debt like a third world country has as we take in tens of millions of turd worlders. It's almost like the two are connected."



Hey, who voted "Aye" in that 2023 Bill to lift the Debt Ceiling for a year and half in Biden's last year of his first term?

AmericanKulak says

"I can't believe we're accumulating so much high levels of debt like a third world country has as we take in tens of millions of turd worlders. It's almost like the two are connected."



Hey, who voted "Aye" in that 2023 Bill to lift the Debt Ceiling for a year and half in Biden's last year of his first term?

$800 billion of $2.2 trillion for Trump's CARES Act went to Paycheck Protection Program.

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Debt ceiling is not a good way to try to regulate debt.

Congress passes spending bills, congress passes taxation bills. Those set the deficit.

Coming back and saying "Yes I voted for the deficit, but I wont vote to authorize the debt that resulted from it" is stupid.

AD says

$800 billion of $2.2 trillion for Trump's CARES Act went to Paycheck Protection Program.

So about 1-2 years of what migrants get in benefits, school, hospital, etc reimbursement costs that wouldn't exist if they were gone.

When Juan falls off a roof, and Pasadena General ER pays for it, the State/Fed is compensating the hospital. The employer and Juan get off scot-free but the cost falls on the taxpayer. Getting rid of Juan and forcing Al's Roofing to hire legally will direct those costs to where they belong, off the taxpayer's shoulder.

And yes, that costs a little money. A fractional amount to the annual non-borrowed revenue of the USA

DeficitHawk says

Coming back and saying "Yes I voted for the deficit, but I wont vote to authorize the debt that resulted from it" is stupid.

30 years of no Wall and inadequate enforcement, that only cost a few billion a year, and yet we have $37T in debt and no wall and tens of millions of illegals.

The cost of a wall and full enforcement is not only fractional to the debt, the cost of the wall and full enforcement is fractional to the annual federal revenue without one borrowed dollar. Furthermore enforcement and deportation greatly reduces the drain on taxation at all levels

The Uniparty already had their spending while nixing the wall/enforcement over fake Cost Concerns.

Let Massie and Rand show their PRINCUHPULS by volunteering to eliminate some Kentucky handouts. TVA?

No cuts without fully funded border enforcement and wall.

(Fortunately the BBB gives us both)

Patrick says

MTG and her ilk are busy insider trading. They want what Pelosi has. 🤡

Not "Don't Defend the Border to Cut the Deficit"

Patrick says

Karen Bass claims everything is under control as riots expand and highways are blocked by 100s of protesters.



Clearly, we were overfunding Border Security all these years. All the few billion we were spending out of about $2T in revenue was just way too much. Wasteful spending that should have been cut long ago. Good thing we never bothered with that wall.

DeficitHawk says

This is my point, and my worry.

Some people are always worried about the wrong things.

Examples, muh Trump is deporting illegal aliens!

Muh BBB is going to cause hyperinflation.

Dude, there is an invasion of illegal aliens, Iran and China are gearing up for world war 3. But yes, let’s “balance The budget” that will show those crazies we mean business!

PeopleUnited says

Dude, there is an invasion of illegal aliens, Iran and China are gearing up for world war 3. But yes, let’s “balance The budget” that will show those crazies we mean business!

Check Rand Paul's tweets from yesterday. While LA is full of immigrant rioters, he's laser focused on the fully funded deportation/wall part of the BBB, which itself is only one part of the budget. He spends tweet after tweet on the finally fully funded border control budget.

He wants the spending cut at least in half. He's doing his crap again about using remote sensors and drones like he did last time.

For 30 years these snakes spent money like water, from endless deployments to Afcrapistan to Transgender Comic Books in Peru, each time blowing off the Wall and more immigration Enforcement as "Fiscally Irresponsible" while they spent a trillion+ on bullshit. With GOP snakes, it's never a good time to fund the border because they don't want immigration controlled.

These same snakes that tell you the debt is now at crisis so we have to not fund actual territorial integrity, will turn around and lecture about how the $15-$20B monthly the tariffs are bringing in are bad and must be stopped ASAP. But I thought the debt was at a crisis point? $200B in new revenue a year has to be cancelled ASAP but the national debt is their top concern simultaneously?

Once you see it, you can't unsee it. Reminder to call your Senators and Congressman and YES on the BBB

If the Kentucky Clowns are so deadset on cuts, let them sell off and eliminate public funding for the TVA entirely. to show their dedication.

Why is Deep State is using Massie and Rand?

Because if they bring out Murkowski and Collins, people will be like "Well if those two RINOs are against it... it MUST be good"

The DS is desperate to stop BBB beefed up Border Control & Deportations. It's KEY to them. Don't fall for it.

I've said it again and again so I'll say it for the upteenth time: The one thing you can depend on Massie and Rand for is stopping all threats to Extreme Hyperimmigration. Both have voted to increase migration and for some crazy budgets. Wide Open Borders and more immigration (inc. H1Bs) is dear to their heart.

If they were so fiscally concerned, they'd not spend most of their time and oxygen complaining about the BBB's Beefed Up Border/Deportation funding. They'd find other things to complain about. They would regrettably endorse Tariffs "For Now".

If you all remember, the Gang of 8 Bill was Amnesty now, vague promises of Border Enforcement later.

The same Senate and House GOPers that voted to spend billions for a high speed rail that can boast maybe 20 miles of completed track after 10 years of construction...

want you to know a few Billion for 100s of miles of border wall is absolutely infeasible and a waste of money.

AmericanKulak says

He wants the spending cut at least in half.

I also want spending cut at least in half.

If that doesn't happen, the government will soon be spending all its money on interest alone.

Patrick says

I also want spending cut at least in half.

Yes. After the border is fully funded for the first time in decades since the primary duty of the US is to defend it's geophysical integrity.

Otherwise, we're just paying off the debt for the Post-Constitutional Empire of Mexicostan - why bother?

Rand can privatize the TVA and raise the difference. Remember, the BBB is just mandatory spending. The discretionary, the big one, is the one to cut to the very bone. That's the next one, not this one.

Also, Rand and Massie must endorse the tariff or be laughed at for insincerity. If we're really so hard up for debt, why do they want to abolish the tariff, the expressly, explicitly Constitutional tax right in the original version?

Let me get this straight: Thomas Massie voted with every Democrat against the BBB because it didn’t include any DOGE spending cuts and raised the debt ceiling — even though he previously voted to raise the debt ceiling under Joe Biden.

Then today, the same Thomas Massie again sided with every Democrat to oppose $9.4 billion in DOGE spending cuts — because the recissions package also included a resolution that makes further spending cuts to BBB, the very thing he claimed he wanted.

So no, it’s not about spending cuts.
It’s about his terminal TDS.
https://x.com/joma_gc/status/1932965431016346047

AmericanKulak says

even though he previously voted to raise the debt ceiling under Joe Biden

@grok

Congressman Thomas Massie has not always voted against raising the debt ceiling. In 2023, he voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act, which increased the debt ceiling, citing its spending cuts as justification. This was his first such vote, breaking a pattern of opposition. However, in 2025, he voted against H.R. 1, which included a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase, likely due to insufficient fiscal reforms. His general stance is against debt ceiling hikes without significant spending reductions, though the 2023 vote shows he can support them under specific conditions.

AmericanKulak says

After the border is fully funded for the first time in decades since the primary duty of the US is to defend it's geophysical integrity.

Defending the border is very cheap by comparison with everything else the government is spending money on. The BBB could be much smaller along with generously funding border security.

Patrick says

Defending the border is very cheap by comparison

Need to make sure any new hires are "boots on the ground" and not in the back office far away from the border

Hire a new border agent and likely it costs about $150,000 per year per border agent (includes all compensation and overhead associated with that agent like new vehicle assigned to him)

RFK Jr says the Big Beautiful Bill includes a $75 per month Healthcare Program, where you can get a Concierge Doctor, who’s Available 24/7…. NO BILLS. NO INSURANCE CLAIMS!

“It’s going to be like old style healthcare”

• It also includes a “Health Savings Account” which can FULLY PAY for things such as Gym Memberships

• This will also create on-site medical centers by employers, at various workplaces, where workers can get treated for FREE if they choose.
https://t.co/4EbRZiCnA4

Patrick says

even though he previously voted to raise the debt ceiling under Joe Biden

grok

Congressman Thomas Massie has not always voted against raising the debt ceiling. In 2023, he voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act, which increased the debt ceiling, citing its spending cuts as justification. This was his first such vote, breaking a pattern of opposition. However, in 2025, he voted against H.R. 1, which included a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase, likely due to insufficient fiscal reforms. His general stance is against debt ceiling hikes without significant spending reductions, though the 2023 vote shows he can support them under specific conditions.

Yes, so I'm correct.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/118-2023/h199

So he gave Biden 18 months of a raised debt ceiling AND continued COVID-era massive spending... then turned around and was up Trump's ass before he was even inaugurated. Massie-ive difference in behavior.

As I posted a few weeks ago before the BBB hit the fan, Grok sometimes says somebody votes against something or for something when they did the opposite. It really sucks for checking vote history.