patrick.net

RWSGFY says

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.

I am surprised that no one seems to see what I see. Biden's Administration does not care because all is going fine for their goal. The plan is not to substitute electric mobility for ICE, the plan is for the public to stop driving while reserving personal transportation to politicians and the connected rich. Joe Citizen will take the bus while living in clustered cities. The "financial reality" is that an electric car in 2035 will cost the equivalent of $100,000 and be subject to high road use and mileage taxes to "pay for infrastructure." Get used to riding by bus or subway, living close to work in order to walk or cycle, and at best using a shared ride service, where something like 15 passenger van is summoned and scheduled by app to picked up and drop off people in an optimized route.

HeadSet says

I am surprised that no one seems to see what I see. Biden's Administration does not care because all is going fine for their goal. The plan is not to substitute electric mobility for ICE, the plan is for the public to stop driving while reserving personal transportation to politicians and the connected rich.

Makes sense, but I have no intention of giving up my big cars. I NEED them. Not a want. Until EV/Car manufacturers solve that problem, 90% of America will not adopt EVs. SFBA, LA, NYC, MIA, etc, fine, they work over short commuter distances.

It really can't work in a place like IL as the OP states or Wyoming. Most of IL is cornfields. Rockford, Decatur, Champaign, Peoria and Springfield are the next biggest and they're all spread out. EVs are and will always be for city dwellers that don't travel at all outside the "zone" so to speak. Let the private market figure it out. Zero tax dollars should be going to EV's (and a lot of other things...).

Tesla Owner Stranded At Supercharger Station On Christmas Eve After Cold Weather Paralyzes Battery

BY TYLER DURDEN

SUNDAY, DEC 25, 2022 - 10:45 AM

Besides freezing door handles, Tesla owners who braved the cold this Christmas weekend were met with 'winter range anxiety.' As we explained last week, cold weather will degrade battery performance. At least one video went viral on Christmas Eve of a person whose Model S wouldn't charge in the cold at a Supercharger station.

Domenick Nati, 44, a resident of Lynchburg, Virginia, rolled into a Supercharger station Saturday afternoon with 19 miles left of charge. The Tesla's dashboard showed outside temperatures were 19 degrees Fahrenheit. He made a video about his awful experience over the last 24 hours. 

In a video posted on TikTok, Nati said battery issues began on Friday when his Tesla wouldn't warm up so it could charge. He tried charging at his house and a Supercharger station, but nothing seemed to work. In a last-ditch effort, he went to Supercharger station on Christmas Eve, where he experienced the same issues. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-owner-stranded-supercharger-christmas-eve-after-cold-weather-paralyzes-battery

Hard no from me. A vehicle is a lifeline. If it is unreliable, it can actually put you in more danger than simply without it.

Those charging cables have a lot of stealable copper.

WookieMan says

Makes sense, but I have no intention of giving up my big cars.

You will when gasoline has been phased out and is no longer available.

“In a video posted on TikTok, Nati said battery issues began on Friday when his Tesla wouldn't warm up so it could charge. He tried charging at his house and a Supercharger station, but nothing seemed to work. In a last-ditch effort, he went to Supercharger station on Christmas Eve, where he experienced the same issues.”

- The freaking car had “charging issue” both at home and at the supercharger. He knew about it. Why is it a problem? Am I missing something here? Any person with half a brain would use another car.

Onvacation says

Those charging cables have a lot of stealable copper.

😂….That’s a rough way to make a living. Hope the thief doesn’t get electrocuted

Onvacation says

Those charging cables have a lot of stealable copper.

Most States have outlawed non-registered recyclers (homeless, single parties (AKA thieves)) to bring in copper to recycling centers.

Well the stupid thing that California did to ban new ICE vehicles after a certain year is part of their emissions crap, so it applies to a bunch of other states. For some reason all the articles on this CA law failed to mention this. Fortunately Maryland declined to renew, for now. So Maryland won't be using CA emissions on new cars for a year or two. Our new Democrat governor (as of next January) is sure to sign up for this nonsense, but that won't take effect for a while so MD might be the only place exempted from this nonsense for a while, even if brief. Hopefully I will be living someplace else when this eventually happens.

rocketjoe79 says

Most States have outlawed non-registered recyclers (homeless, single parties (AKA thieves)) to bring in copper to recycling centers.

If states outlaw copper recycling only outlaws will recycle copper. Laws don't stop thieves.

rocketjoe79 says

Onvacation says

Those charging cables have a lot of stealable copper.

Most States have outlawed non-registered recyclers (homeless, single parties (AKA thieves)) to bring in copper to recycling centers.

They will do the same thing they do with stolen converters: pack them into containers and ship overseas.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Makes sense, but I have no intention of giving up my big cars.

You will when gasoline has been phased out and is no longer available.

People are willing to pay for gas, we have plenty of it and the infrastructure to find, refine and use more of it, why would it be “phased out”?

Oh that’s right, so the globalists can force us to be better slaves for them.

cisTits says

Lol. Joke? About peed my pants. I can tow 14k with a Honda civic. Is it safe? What’s my mileage?

You’ll get maybe 25-30 miles towing 14k on an EV. It’s a weight issue with electric. They’re batteries. We’d be doing it by now if we could. Ev’s are sedans and small SUV’s. The batteries to get the range and towing capacity make it impossible due to the weight of the batteries. And they’re actually light batteries. You’d need 3-4k lbs of batteries PLUS the load weight you tow. Ain’t happening without new tech.

Teslas are bullshit and a fad.
In N. California, they are running on electricity made by burning natural gas in Moss Landing, CA.
It's better to have a car just run on natural gas and be done with it.

The Cybertruck is more bullshit; "....the ability to pull near infinite mass."

Yeah, it can pull "near infinite mass" for a very finite distance.

WookieMan says

You’ll get maybe 25-30 miles towing 14k on an EV.

Ah, but maybe that trailer is a just an external battery pack.

WookieMan says

I can tow 14k with a Honda civic.

Even an F-150 or Chevy Silverado full sized pickup with the special towing package would have a hard time towing 14,000 lbs. My Pathfinder has a towing capacity of 6,000 lbs, and that is high for that class of vehicle, let alone for the much smaller Civic.

In Idaho an electric car will be collecting rust not moving. I believe in Teslas genius to make great stuff, but they can't beat laws of physics and nature here. Those Teslas are great for CA/FL though where sun always shines and your solar panels go far.

Tesla in pole position in Norway's race to EV goal
Four out of five new cars sold in Norway in 2022 were battery powered, led by Tesla, but some in the industry say new taxes could thwart the country's goal of becoming the first to end the sale of petrol and diesel automobiles by 2025.

Tesla Arctic Circle testimony:
I live nearly as far north in Europe as is possible, in the small town of Kirkenes on Norway’s coast by the Barents Sea. The Barents Observer covers stories from around the region, which means long distances in varied weather conditions. For about a year now, I have been driving my Tesla Model 3 around in the north, and have had very positive experiences by driving electric.
Last winter and this one have proven that electric is by no means a disadvantage in the Arctic. The car heats faster and better than my previous diesel Volvo, and even in very remote places, when parked without access to a plug, I don’t have to be afraid of the car not starting the next morning if it has been extremely cold at night.
One example: Last week I parked for four days at the airport in Kirkenes without a plug. Temperatures dropped to down to -32C. When I came back I turned on the heat via the Tesla app while waiting for luggage, and when I came to the car some 10-12 minutes later, all windows were without ice, the door was no problem to open, and I simply just jumped in and drove.

The Winter of 2023, has been Tesla's Soccer Mom Mini Van Super Bowl Commercial. An instant death nobody saw coming.

cisTits says

EBGuy says

Four out of five new cars sold in Norway in 2022 were battery powered, led by Tesla, but some in the industry say new taxes could thwart the country's goal of becoming the first to end the sale of petrol and diesel automobiles by 2025.

I believe those numbers like I do Swedish rape stats.

They can be true, because Norway imposes draconian 100% tax on all passenger cars, except EVs.

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

clambo says

In N. California, they are running on electricity made by burning natural gas in Moss Landing, CA.
It's better to have a car just run on natural gas and be done with it.

I dunno about that: there are plenty of spectacular nat gas vehicle explosions on youtube. Like this one for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO055g6JqLs

While Tesla batteries burn very hot at least they don't explode. I say let people have them if they want them, but subsidizing them is unnecessary.

Musk demonstrated, on a stage in 2013, the capability to swap batteries robotically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
Twice as fast as putting gas in a vehicle.

This wasn't just a stunt, but a reasonable attempt to overcome objections to battery range anxiety. Was he serious about putting thousands of robots and even more thousands of battery packs across the country? I think he ran the numbers and decided building charging places was more profitable and practical. Especially as batteries have become more efficient, and will continue to do so, in the future.

Battery Day 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK79ioBW8Mg

There's neither the capacity nor infrastructure to support just 10% EV replacement of combustion engines in the USA.

EVs will be made mandatory, while far less Electric or infrastructure is built.

There was some place in Canada, they replaced some 100s+ MW fossil fuel plant with some 0.5mW on a good day solar station or some bullshit and said it was a great Green victory.

The end goal is to remove POVs.

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

If Tesla continues their current growth rate, I predict the company will be #5 in 3 years. The Cybertruck, due to start making deliveries this year, has a 1.5 Million unit backlog, worth about $80 billion. I've been considering adding more Tesla Stock to my portfolio. I got "lucky" and made 5x the last time I cashed out. Paid for my Model Y.

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

I agree it’s a niche product. It’s not for everyone

AmericanKulak says

The end goal is to remove POVs.

Correct. That will happen by making POVs gradually unaffordable by 2035. By then, POV prices will hit $100k and have a high per mile tax.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I can tow 14k with a Honda civic.

Even an F-150 or Chevy Silverado full sized pickup with the special towing package would have a hard time towing 14,000 lbs. My Pathfinder has a towing capacity of 6,000 lbs, and that is high for that class of vehicle, let alone for the much smaller Civic.

It's an over exaggeration on my end. It is possible with weight distribution hitches and substantially unsafe with a Civic. But it's doable. The energy needed to tow that amount over average distances, say 100-200 miles is not remotely possible with current tech with EV's. As I said a 14k trailer you're looking at 20-50 miles with an EV. It's pointless. It would take me 3 days to get to Nashville from Northern IL. 3 days back. I can do that is 6-7 hours now.

I'm looking at lithium golf cart batteries currently. While lighter, it's still a shit ton of weight. The physics don't work. Maybe the major auto companies lobby the fuck out of ICE vehicles. But EV's are decades away for people that tow stuff. 2050 best case is my estimate. And that's assuming much of the population dies off.

Ultimately you need coal, LGN or nukes to power a transportation network reliant on electric. They're pushing for solar and wind. Whatever....

Eman says

Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping.

You treat this time lost to charging as if it costs nothing, while the study in the OP doesn't. Basically their approach is more comprehensive.

Hugh_Mongous says

Eman says

Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping.

You treat this time lost to charging as if it costs nothing, while the study in the OP doesn't. Basically their approach is more comprehensive.

I do it when it’s convenient. When it’s not, I charge at home. There are always options.

Last 31 days, used 375 kWh. Charged half at home and half for free. Cost $50 to charge at home. I average 288 Wh/mile so about 1,300 miles driven. Say at 20 gal/mi equivalent for a similar car, it would have cost me $260 at $4/gallon. $100 for electricity if charged at home 100%. Pure fact.

I am saving about $200/month in gas over the last year. I only use the Super Chargers if on a road trip and have to pay for it. I charge at home 98% of the time and it costs me $8 to fill up.

My car was paid off in 2012. Gas is the least of your concerns when you are sitting on a depreciating asset. My gas guzzler will still be running in 20 years with minimal maintenance. Not sure I could say the same with an EV that is 40 years old. Plus, in cold climates the EV lose range and power faster than you can say carbon footprint.

socal2 says

I am saving about $200/month in gas over the last year. I only use the Super Chargers if on a road trip and have to pay for it. I charge at home 98% of the time and it costs me $8 to fill up.

You need those savings to buy your next battery.

People who respond to a study conclusions with their own happy corner case don't understand that they are not everybody and everybody is not them. It's useful to examine and critisize the methodology, but single counter-example has no value whatsoever.

Our overlords are aggressively pushing switch to all-EV but this particular study shows that it will make most of the people worse off.

And, BTW, the guy who did a study owns an EV - the article mentions it literally in the first line.

Eman says

Very well said DeficitHawk. It’s ironic the folks, who are negative about EV, don’t own an EV.

We have 2 EV’s and no gas car. Wife’s car charges about twice a week at home during off-peak. I get free charge for life and also charge about twice a week. Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping. Come back and 87-95% charged most of the time.

Most siblings also own 1-2 EV. It works for us. The experience has been great in the last 5+ years.

If you lived in Minnesota would you be just as happy with your EV's?

zzyzzx says

If you lived in Minnesota would you be just as happy with your EV's?

Hells no. Everyone practically has some towable toy (boat, snowmobile, flatbed trailer, camper) in MN. I rarely see a Tesla where I live in IL outside of Chicago and the collar suburbs. Just came back from Miami and I saw flocks of Teslas everywhere. They simply make zero sense in 90% of America outside of warmer coastal areas and major cities.

And yes, that's most of America. You're going to have an impossible time convincing fly over country, beside Texas, that EV's are a good idea. They're an awful idea north of I-80 specifically besides the Pacific Northwest and that's just the coastal area.

I get they're popular in certain areas. They simply just don't work in most land areas of America if you're being practical and drive more than 100 miles. I'm not sitting at a charging station for damn near a half hour. I can pump 24 gallons in under 3 minutes. Might be two if it's a good gas station. I can then go 400 miles and not even think about where the next gas station is. We drive way more than you Coastal boys. 30-50k miles per year on each car. We'd live at charging stations and the EV's have no utility. That's the life in flyover country.

Blue says

You need those savings to buy your next battery.

I'm leasing as I get a car allowance for work and we can't keep cars beyond 3 years per company policy.

Meanwhile, I am driving the equivalent of a Porsche in terms of fun and performance for the cost of a Hyundai.

Also, with few exceptions - the Tesla batteries are holding up just fine with the older models (going on 10 years now) with minimal degradation and they expect over a million miles on average with the current models.