patrick.net

socal2 says

Great day to by MOAR TSLA because "smart people" in Wall Street don't seem to understand macro in Q1.

- Eco-terrorist attack on Berlin factory shutting down production for over 2 weeks
- Houthi attacks on shipping causing thousands of cars to be stuck on ships from China going around Africa to reach Europe
- Fremont factory re-tooling for the new Model 3 Highland launch

Dude, you like your car. I haven't seen anyone argue it's a bad car for YOUR wants and needs. It's overpriced and takes 3-4 years for EV to pay off the difference of a similar car. Sure not as zippy, but still accomplishes the mission. Like a Toyota Corolla or similar.

Also there's no cars that need to go through the Suez or Red Sea that come to America. They come across the Pacific or European cars across the Atlantic. Tesla might source parts elsewhere, but it's mainly an American made car. Most of Toyota and Nissan are made here. Can't recall the company but most of your new car tires come from a Asian company that built a huge tire plant near Nashville.

The global thing didn't work out. We've been decoupling from it for a while and it was accelerated by covid. Your cars in the next 10 years will all be made in America or Mexico.

EV's have reached their saturation point. Car buyers are men for the most part. I know plenty of women that had their mid-life crisis and got a Tesla. Men want sports cars that make noise. Sale will continue to drop. Cyber Truck deliveries will get the soy boys that think it makes them look manly. Those sales will dry up as well. Hence why Musk is on every podcast on the planet and has started advertising. I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

WookieMan says

Also there's no cars that need to go through the Suez or Red Sea that come to America. They come across the Pacific or European cars across the Atlantic. Tesla might source parts elsewhere, but it's mainly an American made car.

The Chinese gigafactory factory is one of Tesla's highest production volume factories and ships cars to Europe that would use the Suez canal. There is also major component suppliers that were disrupted having to send ships around the horn of Africa.

WookieMan says

Car buyers are men for the most part. I know plenty of women that had their mid-life crisis and got a Tesla. Men want sports cars that make noise.

I thought you told me that you don't need power or acceleration and driving is no kick for you? You are fine tooling around in a big Japanese Nissan provided you can tow your toys around? If you like fast and powerful cars now, you can't get a faster or more powerful car than a Tesla for the price.

WookieMan says

Cyber Truck deliveries will get the soy boys that think it makes them look manly.

You sure about that?

It's already iconic with some groups.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/E8y7vbQnlx8

HeadSet says

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

I think the stock will be pretty flat this year. Lots of Liberals hating on Elon driving B.S. FUD stories and trying to prop up the dying Fords and GM's. Interest rates are high impacting all auto sales.

The next big leg up will be later this year when they introduce the much cheaper Model 2 and Full Self Driving gets more mainstream.

All Tesla owners are getting a free one month subscription to FSD this month (haven't gotten mine yet). But the initial reviews from drivers is quite positive.

I don't think people appreciate how much FSD is going to change transportation and our society. How do you put a value on this technology? Especially if Tesla licenses it to other automakers? There is no other technology on the planet that is close to this level of useful AI and Tesla is growing their lead every single day with millions of miles of new training data from all their cars on the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs96BKDCDR4

socal2 says

I don't think people appreciate how much FSD is going to change transportation and our society.

I wonder if Uber and Lyft stock will also increase because this FSD looks like it will soon eliminate the need for a driver. I have long predicted that private cars will be unaffordable by 2035 and people will just order rides via app and have a FSD vehicle add them to an irregular route.

socal2 says

I thought you told me that you don't need power or acceleration and driving is no kick for you? You are fine tooling around in a big Japanese Nissan provided you can tow your toys around? If you like fast and powerful cars now, you can't get a faster or more powerful car than a Tesla for the price.

I personally don't. Most men don't. They want utility. Tesla doesn't provide that for any model. Have a family of 5 that goes 250 miles with a trailer up to Wisconsin twice a month in the summer. Gas the Armada up and get there on one tank and tool around the entire weekend without filling up until the return trip. With a trailer or camper. I can get in mud and off road situations. No model of Tesla does that without a charging stop.

I have just the weekend. I don't have fucking time for that shit. Cyber Truck is the only one that can tow and you'd be lucky to get 100 miles out of it. This is just leisure. There's also work. I just drove 150 miles today with ZERO chargers on the way. It's still chilly here. Even if topped off, there would be risk of running out of electric on the trip and no where to charge. Nope. Not worth it for a shitty looking sedan. All sedans look shitty to me, so not being biased. The truck looks like a retard got ahold of a CAD program on acid. The specs suck.

https://x.com/sashayanshin/status/1776552388704227421

Why I will never switch from my EV to one of these new gas cars.

1. Range anxiety - I am used to being on 100% every morning. With a gas car, I might not have enough gas to get to work and have to waste time going to recharge it.

2. Big maintenance problem - After 100k-200k miles you have to swap or rebuild the engine. That’s $10-20k on an old car. This is crazy!

3. Risk of fire - Gas cars have ~100x the likelihood of catching fire compared to EVs. You literally have a full tank of explosive liquid right underneath your back seats. No thank you!

4. Underdeveloped charging infrastructure - Every home has a power outlet. Every AirBnb has one too. No matter how remote. With a gas car, you have to go find special charging stations instead of charging while you sleep. Sometimes, the nearest one could be 50 miles away!

5. Environmental impact - Did you know it takes about 10x as much mining and pumping to get the oil needed to fuel a gas car over its lifetime than the materials needed to build an electric battery? Insane!

6. Range issues - Did you know that if you turn on aircon, charge your devices in the car and blast the infotainment system, your gas car range can go down by 20% or more?!

7. Cost - The average gas car costs 20% more than a Tesla. It’s just too expensive for mass adoption.

You have to be a real nutcase fan boy to switch to a gas car! [socal2, Eman]

Lol... The thickest sarcasm/troll I've seen in a while. Spot on though. Molasses is what comes to mind.

EV owners enjoy it. It's not cheaper. Not green. I just zipped around town in the cart. Fun. I also sometimes need to tow up to 9k lbs more than 400 meters. Can it tow it, sure, but again will you literally get more than a 1/4 miles out of it? Not happening with a EV. Get a golf cart and drive that to work. In CA you're likely not getting above 30-40mph on a good traffic day. Golf carts can go that fast easy. 1/3 the cost for a nice one. 1/10th for a fixer upper.

This is what I like.

rocketjoe79 says

This is what I like.

Yeah but the cost of the car is not factored into that chart. Likely a financed vehicle so that $908 would be eaten by the loan to a comparable sized ICE car in 3 months and then you're paying more monthly. Factor in EV's don't pay MFT yet, the cost will go up through registration or your electric bill in the coming years. Just because they're zippy, doesn't mean they're light cars. A Tesla is causing more damage to roads than a an ICE car paying the taxes for you.

I also usually keep a car for 10 years. Besides gas and oil changes I have all the same maintenance as an EV. Maybe an alternator or starter, but those are relatively cheap repairs Never had to replace an engine. Always get 200k miles out of my cars. With lithium the batteries degrade over time as well. I don't think I'd see 200k miles out of a Tesla without a battery pack swap at the tune of a used car, like $20k to get it back on the road. So that would literally eat all the savings or get I have to get rid of a useless car for pennies.

I get the hype for EV's. The math doesn't add up though. The one factor no one considers is time. I'm not going to sit there and wait for a charge when I can get 400 miles in 3 minutes ICE vehicles. I'd lose $100 in the time waiting to get a full charge at least in productive time. Or the time finding a charger in rural areas with range fear. There're plentiful in CA, but not in my area of IL. Maybe at the big truck stops, but they're not at your local small town gas station.

EV's are for sure more expensive. It's a fun car to drive. That's not a value to me that is worth the higher cost. And the costs are 100% for sure higher for a comparable ICE car that just does 0-60 in 6 seconds instead of 3. Excessive acceleration will get you pulled over in most states. Call me a geezer driver, but it's provably dangerous.

The only guy I know who owns a Tesla was bragging about how he got a tax credit for it. He's the epitome of a smug owner.
He also complains that FPL doesn't pay him for the energy he produces from his vast solar panel installation on his house roof.
He's not satisfied that he pays no bill each month; he wants them to pay him some money.
He's smug and likes to brag about his "real estate holdings"; he has a house with his wife and they have another one which is rented out.
When I see him at a barbecue he brings a cooler and pounds Budweisers like no tomorrow; I don't know where it goes, he must have a hollow leg.

Off the subject: if you guys are someday seeking an income investment which is not four walls and a roof, check out SPYI.
It's got a high yield.

clambo says

Off the subject: if you guys are someday seeking an income investment which is not four walls and a roof, check out SPYI.
It's got a high yield.

clambo says

He also complains that FPL doesn't pay him for the energy he produces from his vast solar panel installation on his house roof.
He's not satisfied that he pays no bill each month; he wants them to pay him some money.

I have talked to several "net zero" rooftop solar homeowners around here and unlike your Tesla bud, none have complained about not being paid by Dominion Power. Net Zero is fair, since although they supply free power to Dominion during the day, they get free power from Dominion at night.

HeadSet says

I have talked to several "net zero" rooftop solar homeowners around here and unlike your Tesla bud, none have complained about not being paid by Dominion Power. Net Zero is fair, since although they supply free power to Dominion during the day, they get free power from Dominion at night.

Dominion doesn't get shit. The excess power generated gets burned off as heat at the neighborhood substation because the grid was built to push power in only one direction.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Dominion doesn't get shit. The excess power generated gets burned off as heat at the neighborhood substation because the grid was built to push power in only one direction.

Um, no. Remember, the grid is AC, not "one way." The grid can use several inputs along the way, including company solar fields and home solar panels. A home source just needs to match 240v, 60Hz, and the correct phase to input the grid, which is the whole purpose of a grid-tie inverter. Notice also that a grid connected PV system must have transfer switches to disconnect during a power failure, to protect the lineman from shock from electricity flowing from a solar home into the grid to other houses. Also, systems would not need anti-islanding circuits if power from a one PV system did not feed other homes. True, having lots of home PV with its intermittent nature and varying power quality will stress power company components like voltage regulators and relays, but that is an issue for the RichWicks types to fix while the power company routinely makes use of home PV input.

HeadSet says

Um, no. Remember, the grid is AC, not "one way."

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

HeadSet says

Um, no. Remember, the grid is AC, not "one way."

Nice snark. I assume that you are implying the step down of a substation makes it "one way" even though you seemed to imply no house could feed PV into the grid as all houses feed directly to the local substation and thus burn off as heat. Around here, a substation feeds hundreds of houses. I will admit that my AC comment was a bit inane, but so is the idea that home PV feeding the grid is useless because the power system is "one way."

HeadSet says

Nice snark. I assume that you are implying the step down of a substation makes it "one way" even though you seemed to imply no house could feed PV into the grid as all houses feed directly to the local substation and thus burn off as heat. Around here, a substation feeds hundreds of houses. I will admit that my AC comment was a bit inane, but so is the idea that home PV feeding the grid is useless because the power system is "one way."

Well. After reading that, I will agree that we were both correct and incorrect.

I used substation wrong. Distribution transformer or what is between that and the local substation is probably more accurate.

It is one way. Because the equipment involved was deliberately designed as such in order to get better performance on the direction it was initially designed to do. Or to extend its service lifetime. Or both.

EV charging at night isn't in the design use model either. These distribution transformers were designed to last 40 years ONLY IF their use at night was minimized for several hours so they could cool down. But now with EVs pulling some serious juice down 6-8 hours each night, these things will need to be replaced every 4-6 years. They already cost 10x than they did a couple of years ago...and the waiting list is 2 years and growing.

Oh, and all rate payers will be on the hook for these. It should only be the EV fucks like @Eman and @socal2 who pay for this damage. They caused it.

Still. It is true that A/C flows both ways. But what A/C distribution equipment actually does are two different things.

Your premise is interesting. I did not know that the power grid had this limitation. I would be curious to know what components restrict the flow of power.

Conductors, transformers and switches are not "one way". Power and current can flow through these elements in either direction.

yawaraf says

Your premise is interesting. I did not know that the power grid had this limitation. I would be curious to know what components restrict the flow of power.

Conductors, transformers and switches are not "one way". Power and current can flow through these elements in either direction.

It's wear and tear. Don't need to know a thing about it really. Night time used to be the least used time of usage. You now have equipment with 24/7 demand. Warm months for air conditioning AND now charging cars at night. Usually after 10pm no air con is needed, people go to sleep and don't need electric. It's the least demand time of the day.

Now certain regions are getting high demand ALL day and night because of EV's. The grid wasn't built for that. And solar and wind aren't gonna cover for the night time needs. CA specifically probably has 5-10x's as much electric usage at night now. On top of the normal daytime usage.

TL:DR - Our electric grids cannot sustain EV's for probably another 10 years without massive issues and adding more power by a shit load.

yawaraf says

Your premise is interesting. I did not know that the power grid had this limitation. I would be curious to know what components restrict the flow of power.

Conductors, transformers and switches are not "one way". Power and current can flow through these elements in either direction.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/63042.pdf

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

yawaraf says

Your premise is interesting. I did not know that the power grid had this limitation. I would be curious to know what components restrict the flow of power.

Conductors, transformers and switches are not "one way". Power and current can flow through these elements in either direction.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/63042.pdf

Yeah, it's a bad design.

I think power systems should move to a cooperative type system.

Really, if you're producing too much power from a solar system, you can just disconnect. All that happens is the panels heat up. Alternatively you can just dump in the form of heat. You could have a large tank of water that just heats up and stores hot water during a surplus.

monryrichwicks says

Yeah, it's a bad design.

Are our roads a bad design because heavy EVs are wearing them down more than expected?

Not having a time machine to see how shit would be used in the future in ways that can't be predicted otherwise is not rational.

richwicks says

I think power systems should move to a cooperative type system.

Agreed. Micro smart grids too. That costs money and resources.

Fuck EVs.

I will be driving my 911 till the day I die.

As for grid distribution of home solar power, that is changing in a hurry around here with new rules from 2022. Now a homeowner gets only 25¢ on the dollar for home generation credit. The result is that new installations after the cutoff rules change in 2022 are adding a few kilowatt-hours of battery storage so that the home rarely (if ever) passes power back to the grid. I suppose even more options would present themselves if the homeowner additionally owned an electric car.

On the other hand, I can't help but think that every solar home having its own set of batteries is an economical idea. For that matter, I don't think every home having its own solar panels is such a good idea. How about if no homes had panels but the local supermarket put all those panels in one giant installation on the flat roof of the supermarket and over top of the in-great-need-of-shade parking lot. All that capacity in a single convenient place and managed all at once instead of each homeowner dealing with the ins-and-outs of solar.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Are our roads a bad design because heavy EVs are wearing them down more than expected?

No, the power system is a bad design. We still have the same basic power system we did in 1950. There's all these problems with residential customers producing power, which is stupid - it shouldn't be a problem at all.

I'm not a power engineer, but I know this can be fixed, and CERTAINLY can be fixed today.

If you have a solar array, and the power goes out, your power goes out - doesn't matter if the sun is shining or not. The reason this happens is because otherwise the lines are electrified. This is easily remedied, isolate the home from the grid, and excess power is simply not consumed by the inverter, and is dissipated in the panels.

This doesn't damage the panels, with the inverter entirely off, ALL the power is dissipated in the panels.

Maybe it's cost that prohibits this? Maybe the cost of the inverter would skyrocket? I don't know.

If we distributed power, we are no longer dependent on central points of control, I think that's why it's not done honestly.

richwicks says

If you have a solar array, and the power goes out, your power goes out - doesn't matter if the sun is shining or not. The reason this happens is because otherwise the lines are electrified. This is easily remedied, isolate the home from the grid, and excess power is simply not consumed by the inverter, and is dissipated in the panels.

Around here, that is a non-issue remedied by using a transfer switch. This old time device disconnects you from the grid when it senses a power line failure, just like when using a natural gas generator for backup power. Your house is still powered by your solar even after the transfer switch disconnects you from the grid.

HeadSet says

richwicks says

If you have a solar array, and the power goes out, your power goes out - doesn't matter if the sun is shining or not. The reason this happens is because otherwise the lines are electrified. This is easily remedied, isolate the home from the grid, and excess power is simply not consumed by the inverter, and is dissipated in the panels.

Around here, that is a non-issue remedied by using a transfer switch. This old time device disconnects you from the grid when it senses a power line failure, just like when using a natural gas generator for backup power. Your house is still powered by your solar even after the transfer switch disconnects you from the grid.

In order for it to disconnect you from the grid you need an Automatic Transfer Switch. A manual transfer switch requires one to monitor the grid and operate it when the power goes out. Also, most inverters that people have on their houses don’t have “islanding” capabilities, the ability to generate the base sine wave of 60hz. So in those instances they will need another inverter that can (possibly hooked up to batteries) or a generator to make the sine wave or “utility power” in this case.

ForcedTQ says

In order for it to disconnect you from the grid you need an Automatic Transfer Switch.

That is what "disconnects you from the grid when it senses a power line failure" means. I have examined several solar installs and houses with backup natural gas generators, and I have never seen a transfer switch that was not automatic
.
ForcedTQ says

Also, most inverters that people have on their houses don’t have “islanding” capabilities

So? You do not need inverter "islanding" if you have a transfer switch. Also, "islanding" is not "the ability to generate the base sine wave of 60hz." Any grid connected inverter must match frequency, phase, and voltage to commercial power. Again, I have seen several "net zero" solar installs, and every one of them had an inverter that put out clean commercial grade power. Even if you are totally off grid with solar and only need house level electricity, you need an inverter that can put out 60Hz, 120v (for home), 3 phase if you are running electronics like computers or modern appliances. Notice that even portable generators from Harbor Freight and Honda have an "inverter style" just to protect whatever sensitive electronics you plug in at the camp site or tailgate party. But if one is totally of grid, a better idea IMO is to stick with DC and use DC appliances that are made for motor homes.

HeadSet says

socal2 says

FSD looks like it will soon eliminate the need for a driver.

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

socal2 says

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car? Sales are drying up. Not the hugest state, but I have a wide network. No one is looking to buy a Tesla that doesn't already have one in IL. Going off what I see in person. Missed it during the housing bust when lumber flatbed semis literally disappeared. Private jets disappeared at my local airport.

Fact is your head needs to be on a swivel. My wife is looking for fucking eagles while she drives. I'm autistic in a sense. Something as simple as my neighborhood gas station has half the firewood purchased in 2 days. I don't need charts and graphs. It's pretty damn obvious if you're looking. I'm full blown anecdotal at this point. I don't trust a thing the media says for sure. I'd actually trust some of you here for your location based observations. Never would take a stock tip or an investment tip though.

WookieMan says

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car?

Tesla's valuation "as a car company" has always been crazy high because the future value of things like Full Self Driving. Software margins and SaaS revenue potential has always been the driver for Tesla's high stock price. There is no way Tesla can sell enough cars alone to justify it's valuation.

Unlike all the other AI and large language model (LLM) developments in the last 12 months like ChatGPT which are basically novelties - Tesla's full self driving AI is already very useful and has massive revenue potential in the real world. And no one else is even remotely close to developing what Tesla already has and Tesla's lead is growing exponentially every single day as millions of Teslas on the road and feeding Tesla's machine learning. Tesla will be able to license this technology to other automakers which will allow them to make absolute bank because software margins are so good and all the cost of development has been spent.

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

FSD is going to change transportation IMO. Robotaxis, freight, floater car to take grandparents and kids around.....

“Let the car do the heavy lifting so I can keep an eye on other things.”

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Apparently new unsold 2023 F-150 Lightnings are being discounted:

socal2 says

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

You do know it's going to lead to more DUI's, right? Cops for sure profile by car. You don't need to hit a line to get pulled over. If you're swerving inside the lines that's still a reason to pull you over. Self driving is notoriously bouncing back and forth between the lines. Make sure you haven't had a drink when you say it was a client dinner. Your luck runs out at some point.

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend. This is no different than flying. If you can't hand drive a car anymore the shit will hit the fan in a multitude of ways. The DUI was because of the autopilot FYI. She would have gotten a hotel once she sat down in the car and realized she couldn't drive. I have to live with what I know. It's not fool proof. I would never drive a Tesla after having a drink. I drink a good amount. Not even one drink. ZERO DUI's. She had none until she got a Tesla. Just saying.

If you're driving after 10pm you've got a target on your back. I don't need that. Cops know you're potentially passed out in a moving vehicle. So you're going to be scrutinized more. I can keep any car between the lines smoothly. No interest in a cop thinking I'm hammered on autopilot. Because that's 100% what cops think. Hence why the insurance is so high on Tesla's.

GNL says

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Of course I would be liable - just like I would be liable if the standard cruise control malfunctioned and I rear ended someone in my wife's Hyundai.

Regardless, I still love using adaptive cruise control for long freeway drives and makes my drive less stressful. Tesla Autopilot and Full Self Driving are the next level beyond that where it can take you door to door.

Tesla already has over 1 billion miles clocked on Full Self Driving (human supervised) without any major accidents or injuries. Millions of new miles are being driven every single day, especially this month with every Tesla owner getting a free trial and the release of Version 12 which is the big breakthrough. All that new training data just makes the driving better and better.

Statistically you have something like 700 crashes and 17 fatalities for every 1 billion miles driven in the US. Soon there will be plenty of real data for regulators and insurance companies to consider for future rules.

WookieMan says

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend.

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot.