#chinainvadestaiwan From your Digest Icon for Russia 🇷🇺 and Ukraine 🇺🇦 conflict Russia 🇷🇺 and Ukraine 🇺🇦 conflict · Follow Answered by Eric Wicklund
Updated Sep 13 It is estimated that the USA would lose up to 4 aircraft carriers and 900 aircraft if they attempted to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Is it worth the humiliating defeat for a country not even in NATO? Ah yes, CSIS war games published 2023. The results were summarized in Forbes, link below.
What the question “hides” is: in the study, when the US lost 4 carriers, China’s invasion FAILED. So, the US loses 4 carriers, but WINS the engagement. So, is China’s humiliating defeat worth it?
As usual, people are reading the headlines without getting into “the meat” of the article, where clarity is provided.
From Forbes:
While the carriers were getting blasted by Chinese missiles, the Navy’s nuclear-powered attack submarines and the U.S. Air Force’s heavy bombers not only were dodging Chinese attacks for the most part, they also were managing to sink more than enough Chinese ships to win the war.
The cost would be high for both sides. Such is the nature of war, but what matters most in war is achieving objectives. In the 24 scenarios conducted by the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), one thing became clear:
From Forbes:
In the winning scenarios for U.S. and allied forces, the carriers barely mattered. The subs and bombers were the war-winners.
B-1B launching an LRASM anti-ship missile.
In the 24 scenarios war gamed out, there were three types:
Base scenario (read: most likely to happen): China is certain to lose. From the CSIS study: However, in the most likely “base scenario,” the Chinese invasion quickly founders. Despite massive Chinese bombardment, Taiwanese ground forces stream to the beachhead, where the invaders struggle to build up supplies and move inland. Meanwhile U.S. submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet. China’s strikes on Japanese bases and U.S. surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous.
What folks often forget is just how prepared Taiwan is with its “Porcupine Strategy.” Whether the US helps Taiwan or not, in the event of Chinese invasion Taiwan will take a few pounds of flesh from Chinese military forces. It is theoretically possible that Taiwan could make a Chinese invasion too costly to be worth it.
Pessimistic scenario: This is primarily characterized by the JASSM-ER missile being incapable of engaging ships (which had not been confirmed at the time of the study), China sometimes wins, but not always. Some Chinese “victories” are Pyrrhic, resulting largely in the destruction of the Chinese Navy. Optimistic Scenario: The US and partners (like Japan) are always victorious. Carriers are lost in nearly every scenario, but Taiwan retains independence and it is China that suffers a “humiliating defeat.” The U.S. Fleet Could Lose Four Aircraft Carriers Defending Taiwan Even when the United States and Japan successfully defended Taiwan—as they did in most of one think-tank’s 24 simulations—the U.S. Navy lost at least two carriers ... and sometimes as many as four. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/ The CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) report of the wargames is here:
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Eric Wicklund
Updated Sep 13
It is estimated that the USA would lose up to 4 aircraft carriers and 900 aircraft if they attempted to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Is it worth the humiliating defeat for a country not even in NATO?
Ah yes, CSIS war games published 2023. The results were summarized in Forbes, link below.
What the question “hides” is: in the study, when the US lost 4 carriers, China’s invasion FAILED. So, the US loses 4 carriers, but WINS the engagement. So, is China’s humiliating defeat worth it?
As usual, people are reading the headlines without getting into “the meat” of the article, where clarity is provided.
From Forbes:
While the carriers were getting blasted by Chinese missiles, the Navy’s nuclear-powered attack submarines and the U.S. Air Force’s heavy bombers not only were dodging Chinese attacks for the most part, they also were managing to sink more than enough Chinese ships to win the war.
The cost would be high for both sides. Such is the nature of war, but what matters most in war is achieving objectives. In the 24 scenarios conducted by the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), one thing became clear:
From Forbes:
In the winning scenarios for U.S. and allied forces, the carriers barely mattered. The subs and bombers were the war-winners.
B-1B launching an LRASM anti-ship missile.
In the 24 scenarios war gamed out, there were three types:
Base scenario (read: most likely to happen): China is certain to lose. From the CSIS study:
However, in the most likely “base scenario,” the Chinese invasion quickly founders. Despite massive Chinese bombardment, Taiwanese ground forces stream to the beachhead, where the invaders struggle to build up supplies and move inland. Meanwhile U.S. submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet. China’s strikes on Japanese bases and U.S. surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous.
What folks often forget is just how prepared Taiwan is with its “Porcupine Strategy.” Whether the US helps Taiwan or not, in the event of Chinese invasion Taiwan will take a few pounds of flesh from Chinese military forces. It is theoretically possible that Taiwan could make a Chinese invasion too costly to be worth it.
Pessimistic scenario: This is primarily characterized by the JASSM-ER missile being incapable of engaging ships (which had not been confirmed at the time of the study), China sometimes wins, but not always. Some Chinese “victories” are Pyrrhic, resulting largely in the destruction of the Chinese Navy.
Optimistic Scenario: The US and partners (like Japan) are always victorious. Carriers are lost in nearly every scenario, but Taiwan retains independence and it is China that suffers a “humiliating defeat.”
The U.S. Fleet Could Lose Four Aircraft Carriers Defending Taiwan
Even when the United States and Japan successfully defended Taiwan—as they did in most of one think-tank’s 24 simulations—the U.S. Navy lost at least two carriers ... and sometimes as many as four.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/
The CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) report of the wargames is here:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf
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