patrick.net

Mr. UP, good to see you here. Hopefully the UP family BMW/Mercedes/Range Rover fleet made it through the last storms unscathed. :)

Olympia is pretty cool and housing is relatively cheap comparitively.

Ollllll leeeeee beeeeeer.

I know a dude that moved from Ca to Seattle and loves it, but then again he has declared the sun his mortal enemy. Have you considered becoming a Vampire?

@SQT,

Check out Mr. Up's link to Santa Cruz data. It shows inventory rising & sales falling pretty consistently since this summer. Regardless of how many signs are up on any given weekend, there's no question that we're just at the beginning of a long and painful correction and credit tightening cycle. If it follows the pattern of past bear markets, the list-pull-relist game will play out slo-mo over several years. I wouldn't sweat the small stuff.

Santa Cruz Co. is a small market - less than 300K people total - sort of like Marin.

@seattledude & Surfer-X,

Clearly, you're just conspiring to keep people out of the NW with your scurrilous disinformation campaign. So transparent :P .

Update from the best place on earth: I was in Santa Cruz county for the holidays- especially in the mountains- VERY FEW ALMOST NO for sale signs anywhere.

Also, perhaps the storm washed away all signs. :)

@HARM

There is no spoon.

@SQT,

Jack should be fine, it's Marin afterall, the flood waters were likely Evian. And those super savy locals probably just bottled it up and sold it.

seattledude, I understand now. Worse traffic than the Bay Area? Wow, that is saying something.

I know a couple of people that do high tech stuff in Sacramento and live in the Gold Country. They make half of what they would here though. They seem to think the trade off is worth it though.

SurferX, we just managed to board the GV for Mykonos prior to the ugliness, leaving the domestics to protect the compound and the auto fleet.

Oh, I would expect that you have already upgraded the GV to a G550. Hmm...

If Seattle traffic is really as bad as seattledude says, then maybe the monorail (mass transit) wasn't such a bad idea.

Peter P, come on now clearly Mr. UP is a Hawker 4000 type of guy.

Mr.Up you should visit Cairo. It has all those things you would want to see on your Middle East trip. Plus it is an amazing city, especially if you can afford a nice room.

But don't go in the summer or fall. Too hot and smoggy.

as you can see -it’s quickly turning into Carmel North
no sign of correction anywhere in sight.

Carmel, Santa Cruz, SLO, Santa Barbara and Vancouver are similar type of markets. They will turn later in the cycle of MIRAGE effects.

Love Cairo, and we still go even though the level of armed security required there since ‘97 is a pain. It is amazing, you’re right.

Isn't Cairo very dangerous?

I read something interesting today:

http://tinyurl.com/7shql

This news article from the Mercury News describes how someone with a $3,300/month (after tax) was able "afford" a $500,000 mortgage, was promised a rate of 5.3%, but it went up to 6.7% on closing, yet he decided to go ahead without revising his budget numbers.

He also borrowed a second loan, too, because he probably had no cash for a down payment, and wanted to avoid PMI, to start with.

The reporter blames the realtor, but I think the buyer should also share the blame. It looks like he actually believed his own phony income numbers, and never even bothered figuring out whether the monthly mortgage payment can be sustained by his monthly take-home pay.

Mr. UP, couldn't just have your BMW security shipped for your arrival?

Isn’t Cairo very dangerous?

Peter P, for peasant loser renters perhaps, but not for esteemed members of the homeowner community like Mr. UP. Are you kidding, the jihadists can see his clear superiority a mile off.

Are you kidding, the jihadists can see his clear superiority a mile off.

Yes, he can probably stop a terrorist with just a look.

Welcome back, brightc. Looks like the Merc is becoming our friend.

@Robert Cote', oddly enough being the pathetic renter I am, the wife and I are looking to rent a 2/1 $hitbox in Santa Barbara. Found a 1920's hovel for $1950 a month, we feel lucky. What's even more odd is that this $hitbox would sell for 1.5mil or so. I've never been very good at anything, especially math, but to me and my marginal intellect, the number just don't jive.

@seattledude: thank Mr. Up for the Santa Cruz info --he posted the link.

Actually the monorail was a lame idea- basically it was just politicians who wanted a shiny new train. There are many problems with the monorail but the main reason is it isn’t flexible enough or big enough- it’s range is too short.

Sounds like it's about as intelligent/cost effective as the L.A. money sinkhole a.k.a. "Metrorail red line". Spend 5-10X as much as comparable above-ground light rail costs to get a subway in L.A., where it rarely rains and never snows. Plus, we have earthquakes, which raises the possibility of cave-ins at some point. Luckily, common sense never comes between a politician and his dreams (and my money).

Darn -- failed to close the italics after 'short.'

I remember one day in 1984, cutting high school, sitting on the
beach at Santa Cruz...or was it Twin Lakes? It was Twin Lakes (right next door to SC but a little less crowded).

Belly full of Cali Coolers (they were new, then)...Blam!
6.4 earthquake! An earthquake of some size feels really weird on
the beach. Sharp, like someone pulling the rug out from under you.

It wasn't until working at the IBM manufacturing plant in South San Jose on that warm Oct. 17th that I felt the REAL wrath of Mother Nature with that 7.1 Loma Prieta. For a few moments, I thought I was a goner.

By the way, what does "uber" mean?

I see that word used here and there.

Thansch...

Mr. Holiday, man, I think I saw there back in '84.

Uber=big large, as in large and in charge. Slang comes from the Hun.

By the way, what does “uber” mean?
I see that word used here and there.

From Urbandictionary.com:

Uber

1. The ultimate, above all, the best, top, something that nothing is better than. Also Ãœber

2. Term with literal meaning of "above" in German. Brought to the mainstream in the early 80's by hardcore American punk band, the Dead Kennedys when using the term in the anti-Californian government song "California Uber Alles", which is a take off the German motto of "Deustchland Uber Alles", which translates to "Germany above all." The term was picked up in their native California stomping grounds by the typical surfers and "punks" and extended from there to many teenagers, the majority of which use the term online.

Thanks, Peter P. Just got back from my vacation. I'm looking at my ZipRealty listings for the first time in the year, and here's what I'm seeing:

* I see some mysterious houses all of the sudden added into my list, although their listing dates are back in October. I guess I just caught a break and these oh-so-wonderful real estate owners have decided to give me a break and drop their house prices into my range.

* I see a couple of townhouses and condos having brand-new prices, probably just to celebrate the New Year, holiday season, and all. The discounts are 2%, give or take. Am I too optimistic to expect a 24%, give or take, annual home value increase?

* When is spring? The spring I've heard so much about? Maybe I should buy now and lock in the 2% discount before spring, when houses will go back to the usual appreciation!

I know I'm gonna love this coming buyer's market! :-)

Oh, so "uber" means pimp.

Thanks dudes.

Prolly did see you there Surfer-X. The waves by the rocks are pimpola.

@Mr. Holiday, no not exactly, but you can be an "uber-pimp". Pimp implies a level of sophistication and refinement. Take my uber-pimp '63 Tbird. Shit all I need is a hat with a feather.

Maybe I should buy now and lock in the 2% discount before spring, when houses will go back to the usual appreciation!

Buy now or be priced out forever! There are no American tanks in Baghdad!

Surfer-X, I'm 39. Not quite a mister. I feel more like 19. This whole growing up & getting old thing is NOT California.

'63 T-Bird, Feathered Hat, 70s platform shoes...definitely uber-fly.

Senor Holiday we are of the same vintage.

My Tbird is definitely fly, much too much for a white guy, which is where the Mexi half comes in. Must fight the urge for hydrolics.

when houses will go back to the usual appreciation!

Can someone else handle this one?

I think you should buy 3 or 4 at these prices, it's a new paradigm, savvy investors like you know a good thing when they see it. Don't let those so called experts or the JBR's sway you, clearly you've done your homework, go for it.

Can someone else handle this one?

BTW, brightc is a friend.

Go back to the usual appreciation must have meant the inflation tracking appreciation.

I don’t know, I didn’t find Cairo all that threatening. I am sure it is safer than downtown Oakland, for example.

Downtown Oakland? I would not know. I dare not go. :)

There was one harrowing moment on a faluka in Luxor where I thought I was going to get thrown into the Nile and my two companions raped, but that was not in Cairo and it was mostly due to one of my female companions breaking the “don’t look at a guy and smile” iron clad rule in Egypt.

That is not good. In a safe place, you should be able to do pretty much anything reasonable. I am glad that you were safe.

I am sure that riding in a car in Cairo was much more hazardous to me than any risk of terrorism.

Actually the risk of riding in a car in the Bay Area is much more hazardous than any risk of terrorism. However, the risk of riding in a car is much higher in developing countries. They just do not have safe roads and people drive like nuts.

Yeah, I really couldn't believe the way the cabbies drove there. My journalist buddy told me that the most dangerous stretch of highway in the world was the one between Cairo and Alexandria. He said that your risk of dying on that highway in one journey was about the same as the risk of an American soldier serving a combat tour in Vietnam. I don't know if it is really that bad (a 1% risk of death per journey) but even just driving around town we had a number of near misses. None of them would have been fatal, but a fender bender at 15 mph is still unpleasant.

The guide books all tell you sternly not to smile at strange men, if you are a woman. It is regarded as a come on.

Should be at least a $20+ jump in gold tomorrow based on this news!

Bap33,

Ghost town mode? I love it! My wife and I cruise around on the weekends and are starting to see that evidence more and more often. In some of the subdivisions we find the "model" is the only one actually completed months in to construction!

Robert Cote'

The reason I felt that coining the phrase "Silent Spring" was such a landmark is that in a "normal" market, yeah, home sales tend to TAPER OFF in the Fall, not fall off a cliff! I think over the years I've written a few of these scripts. "We've hit a bump in the road". We've become velocitized, when you're used to doing 90 mph doing 55 mph feels like you're crawling" "Once we get on the OTHER side of Labor Day stocks begin to trade on next years earnings" Yada, yada. With home sale volumes seriously drying up Realtors TM will NEED a buying frenzy in the Spring to feel good about their futures.

Should be at least a $20+ jump in gold tomorrow based on this news!

Gold is still trading on e-CBOT. There is no big jump in gold price. Front month contracts are trading at 527.7. It was trading at as high as 537 yesterday.

(Note, there are futures prices, not spot prices)