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Google and Bay Area real estates


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2006 Feb 13, 3:03pm   21,172 views  171 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Perhaps we should explore that relationships between the two. It is quite possible that soaring google stock price has been injecting euphoria into the Bay Area housing market. On the other hand, it is not completely unreasonable to assume that Google has been deriving profit from things related to this housing bubble. Now that the real estate market is showing signs of reversal and GOOG is way off its past top. What should we expect?

#housing

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161   KurtS   2006 Feb 15, 8:16am  

I do not know why people glorify ownership so much that they deny it is even possible for it to be comparable to renting in terms of cost.

Ownership is glorified so much in the SF Bay, because after burning yourself out on your job, the only thing you have to show for your sacrifice is your possessions, aka "lifestyle". (IMO)

162   HARM   2006 Feb 15, 8:19am  

Interestingly, though, once you go below 4.3%/yr. expected appreciation, you no longer break even. If you had assumed in 2000 that prices would not exceed CPI-calculated inflation for that year (3.4%), then renting would have had a small advantage.

163   Peter P   2006 Feb 15, 8:19am  

Ownership is glorified so much in the SF Bay, because after burning yourself out on your job, the only thing you have to show for your sacrifice is your possessions, aka “lifestyle”. (IMO)

I rather not get burnt-out in the first place. :)

164   Peter P   2006 Feb 15, 8:22am  

Interestingly, though, once you go below 4.3%/yr. expected appreciation, you no longer break even. If you had assumed in 2000 that prices would not exceed CPI-calculated inflation for that year (3.4%), then renting would have had a small advantage.

HARM, you are using median price and median rent. In other words, you are assuming that the median rent is the same as the rent for the median-priced home. However, rental homes are less expensive than owned homes in general, as a result, you may have been underestimating rent.

Use higher rent and you may not require 4.3% appreciation to break even.

165   HARM   2006 Feb 15, 8:29am  

However, rental homes are less expensive than owned homes in general, as a result, you may have been underestimating rent.

Use higher rent and you may not require 4.3% appreciation to break even.

Sounds reasonable, but reliable past rental statistics for ANY area are extremely hard to come by (the Sunnyvale stat came from the 2000 census). I have no idea where you'd find any "ownership-equivalent" median rent statistics, unless you had access to proprietary industry data.

166   HARM   2006 Feb 15, 9:49am  

Crap, I'm really off today --posted the wrong #$^&@ link!

Here ya' go:
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Virginia~Fairfax_County~monikakumar

167   Peter P   2006 Feb 15, 10:10am  

There are times when I am ashamed to be a REALTOR…reading ignorant crap like that spewn by idiot agents is one of those times.

Do not be ashamed. I have realtor friends and they are decent people too.

I no longer blame people for their apparent optimism.

168   Peter P   2006 Feb 15, 10:21am  

But if it takes you 30 years to *never* to pay off your place, we’re talking Middle Ages level poverty.

Theoretically, I/O loans take longer to pay off than the half-life of plutonium.

169   Peter P   2006 Feb 15, 10:38am  

Also, with the negative amortization loans I keep hearing about, how long do they let people keep paying the minimum amount?

I think Option ARM recasts every 5 years or 125% of value whichever comes first. Do not take my work fot it.

Anyway, I am still amazed at the complexity of Option ARM and the fact that it is actually available to consumers.

170   SJ_jim   2006 Feb 15, 10:48am  

"In the third quarter 73 percent of refinanced loans resulted in cash out and the recent fourth quarter, figures are the highest since the third quarter of 2000 and, in fact, are near the highest this century"

Hah! 3Q 2000? Can you say: "Margin call?!?"

171   HARM   2006 Feb 15, 11:02am  

New thread: No Bubble, My Bad :-(

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