patrick.net

See, I *knew* you could say something nice if you wanted to. Shall we call it even?

Disagree with #2 to the extent that said renters are looking to buy their first home. (Me, for example.)
Disagree with #3 with regard to new commercial property owners. I.e., the analysis should theoretically be the same for commercial owners as it is for residential owners in #1.
Agree generally with #4, but I feel that many (at least I) who call for the repeal of Prop 13 due to its unfairness are referring to its property tax provisions and not the 2/3-majority provisions. Though it is true that a wholesale repeal would, by definition, capture both.

I am happy that you disagree with me, but I am afraid that you are in the minority of your group.
Point 2 (renters): How many renters actually know anything about Prop 13? Even if you include those who are looking to buy, this is not their primary concern and many are not educated about real estate to the extent that they would consider anything other than what their real estate agent and friends are saying. Unfortunately, the general populace does not read forums like this one.
Point 3 (commercial owners): I was stating current commercial property owners have no incentive to repeal Prop 13. Obviously, any prospective commercial property buyers would (hopefully) know about Prop 13, but how many people is this? Many of these buyers are already commercial property owners, so we are really talking about first time (in CA) commercial property owners only. And if they get in at a good price, they will suddenly become pro-Prop 13 people to protect their own interests.
Point 4 (anti-tax crowd): I understand that most people point to the unfairness aspect of the proposition when discussing Prop 13. I think my first 3 points cover this aspect and my fourth point is really a culmination of why I think it is near impossible to ask for the repeal of Prop 13 as a whole - it has too many different provisions that help many segments of the populace in multiple ways. Even if you can find someone who agrees that the property tax portion is unfair, the pro-Prop 13 crowd will simply state that if you repeal Prop 13, you will get taxed more.
In short, any repeal Prop 13 measures must focus on a specific aspect at any one time in order to succeed. You simply cannot suggest a wholesale repeal of Prop 13 and think that it will ever pass in CA. Although, at this point in time (budget crisis, anti-CA government sentiments), you could make an argument that this is the perfect time to can not only Prop 13, but the entire CA budget process.

I'd be happy to just get rid of the Commercial property exemptions of Prop 13. To avoid the idiots, call it something else. The Fair Tax Proposition. Rt now people are angry at the establishment for "causing" the recession. I'm sure if you framed it correctly (stop bad, evil corporations from avoiding taxes) it would pass in a landslide.