patrick.net

I understand how U6 is much more accurate than U3 in stating the unemployment rate, but what I am asking about is how the INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS number shows about 500,000 new claims every single week but the MONTHLY JOB LOSSES are reported as only about the same number.
How can their be four new unemployment claims filed for each one job lost?
This gets reported all the time in the news media but nobody ever explains it.

Usually the 250,000 number comes from either continuing claims, which can be affected by people getting jobs or losing benefits from being out of work so long (at which point they no longer count as unemployed, strangely enough). The number can also come from the assumption that, of the 2,000,000 losing their jobs, 3/4s find another job and thus do not remain unemployed. At least those are my best guesses :)

All I know is, stock market, which surged ahead based on some inflated earnings, now coming to face with,
- unemployment numbers
- low consumer confidence

(aka the 'real' economy indicators)

A bunch of people have been unemployed for a year, so they are dropping off of the rolls of the unemployed, even though they are not working. It was last August when the s#it hit the fan, and huge numbers lost their jobs. I think the same will continue until Christmas -- rosey numbers from the government, and more people without even unemployment to rely upon. I would only look at crime statisitics.

If the government extends unemployment benefits again that will allow millions more to be uncounted since
the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count anyone on Emergency Unemployment Compensation
as getting an unemployment check even though they do.
But the BLS has so far refused to answer my question about how we can have 500,000 new claims per week, which requires that someone has already been out of work for at least a week because of the waiting period, and then at the end of the month have a total of only 250,000 jobs lost. This week the number was 558,000 "new claims" but in the entire month of July we supposedly only lost 247,000 jobs.
2 million jobs were actually lost in July.
Since each person who files a new claim must have lost a job at a covered employer that means at least 500,000 people are losing their jobs every single week, or 100,000 every work day and that does not count people who worked for employers not covered by unemployment insurance.
This is not even counting the 15 million people who are not getting unemployment benefits and were never
included in any off the numbers.

Today the numbers show 576,000 new claims and a four week average of 570,000 per week.
Once again that adds up to 2,280,000 people who lost jobs over a four week period but it will
probably be reported as less than 300,000.
Since the whole unemployment insurance process has been moved online we no longer have the
visual of hundreds of people standing around the unemployment office trying to get their checks
or look for jobs so the news media never bothers to do any stories on unemployment beyond just reading the government press releases without questioning what they are being told.

Well I guess they are having a hard time spinning the California unemployment number
of 11.9 percent that came out today.
That certainly ought to have an impact on real estate prices since it means one eight of
all potential buyers will be unable to qualify for any kind of loans at all for the next few years.
This should cause a lot more foreclosures in the next few months so the pronouncements
of the recession being over and recovery beginning will not mean a thing in California.

pinnacle says

But the BLS has so far refused to answer my question about how we can have 500,000 new claims per week, which requires that someone has already been out of work for at least a week because of the waiting period, and then at the end of the month have a total of only 250,000 jobs lost. This week the number was 558,000 “new claims” but in the entire month of July we supposedly only lost 247,000 jobs.
2 million jobs were actually lost in July.

Well, presumably some of those 2 million found new jobs. But the answer to your question is in the "birth/death model". http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm It's talking about the birth/death of businesses, not people. It's a modifer that says whether hew positions are being created or lost due to the creation or closing of businesses. Basically it's a subjective number that can be used to make the unemployment numbers say whatever the govt wants them to say.

So we are supposed to believe that 1.85 million new jobs are being created every month thereby leaving only 250,000 of those 2.2 million new claimants each month without work?
Where are these new jobs?
Why isn't the White House taking credit for creating so many new jobs?
Not one person I know who has gone on unemployment in the past six months has gotten a new job
so I don't think all those new claimants are getting rehired in significant numbers.
It's possible that large numbers of "new claims" are being denied.
They also don't count pay reductions of people are still working the same hours for less money which obviously is a big factor in consumer spending.

Today's new claims for "standard" unemployment show a "drop" of 10,000 but the number of new people moving onto "extended" unemployment benefits is 102,500 so the supposed drop in claims does not indicate anybody is actually getting hired.
We are also hearing that 435 banks are expected to go under in the next few months because of
commercial real estate defaults.
I wish somebody would explain how unemployment is going to go down if all these banks collapse and all the commercial properties get foreclosed throwing millions of people out of work.
What businesses are going to be in a position to hire in this collapsing commercial environment?
With all these continuing job losses who is going to buy houses and keep bidding up the prices?
We keep hearing a lot of optimistic generalities but no specifics on where these jobs are supposed to come from.

When they admit to 11.9 percent they are really talking about 20 percent unemployment or more since so many people are simply excluded from the calculation for mysterious reasons.
Any way you look at it a big segment of the potential buyers are not going to be able to qualify for loans
at all because they will have a big gap in their employment history.
By the way doesn't Europe have a lot more "green jobs" than the US?
If so than how come Europe has so much unemployment?
Aren't the "green jobs" supposed to replace all the that have been lost in the past year and save the economy?

As of September 4, 2009 U3 is up to 9.7 percent and U6 is up to 16.8 percent. Even the "underemployed" will not be able to get mortgages again for several years because they need a history of earning a qualifying amount
on a continuous basis to even apply. That history now has abig hole in it and many will never
again earn tha kind of money they once did.

Remember that many people apply for unemployment but are denied - they may have been fired (with or without cause) but can't find another job, or independent contractors such as medical transcriptionists, sales people, construction workers...

None of these people are considered when reporting official numbers.

I wish I could keep my personal accounts that way. It'd be so cool to invent more resources for money (therefore potential assets). I'd also make the national color pink and decree that pigs can fly.

Excellent article on this issue:

http://www.truthout.org/090609V