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1
Tude
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2009 Sep 14, 2:01pm
I don't think we will hit bottom until the incentives are gone. Too much government involvement in the way of tax credits and FHA BS loans for us to find a true bottom. They want you to think this is bottom and buy, but I refuse to until the monkey business with housing stops.
2
klarek
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2009 Sep 15, 5:48am
klarek
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2009 Sep 15, 5:48am
Agree with Tude. It's impossible to call it a bottom because there is so much in play right now to prop up prices. Pull the plugs on those, see what happens, then we can talk of a market bottom if that is the case.
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I keep coming back to the idea that maybe the housing market is bottoming out. Granted it depends on where you live, but I'm starting to think that on a national scale, the bottom may be far closer than we'd care to admit to. I'm going to dig up some data, and I will post it a bit later.
OK... I took 10 Random Zip Codes, ball-parked the current house values (using Zillow) and then compared it with historic data (via the 1999 US census. and the 2007 ASC community survey). I have incomplete income data for 2007, but am working on getting it. For now, I have adjusted 1999 census data to approximate 2007 income until better data can be found.
The results of this unscientific back of the envelope analysis is this:
In 1999 90% of these random zip codes were "affordable";that is the Median Price / Median HH Income. Now, 50% are "affordable" not great, but certainly not as bad as I had expected. Even in my own area, prices have come down somewhat.
#housing