patrick.net

Shiny red dump truck
Loose your parking brake with zest
Cut loose your moorings

Aim for that Lexus
With leather interior
Don't stop when she screams

Faster than bullet
Dump truck Dump truck, then...
no more Realtorâ„¢

ps,

correctomondo, when you remodel, your home gets reassessed at the market value, that is why I resent this freaking bubble so much, I can't even remodel my home for the fear of tripling my property tax bill. You are only allowed to do very basic maintenance without triggering a reset, you want to do some nice remodeling job? Bang, the county got ya!

Anything above 2M will get a serious haircut. But I personally sense a lot of support at around 1M level. Anything in the west valley area, in a decent location with a large enough lot, some to good view, 1M list price will get you multiple offers above asking.

Now, here is something you need to ask yourself. Do you think something serious will happen to our economy? To me, I am hesitant to trade up or upgrade not because I cannot afford to, but because I don't want to spend a respectable portion of my networth on my home, while I am not sure how the US will turn out in the next 2 decades, I feel we have a lot of unwinding to do, a lot of time bombs to set off. I am not a rich person that I can just treat my residence as a consumption.

If nothing too bad happens, I'd say the part of Saratoga that you are targeting won't go below 1.2-1.3M. Now, if we as a country are doing some serious unwinding in the next 10 years, then all bets are off. That's why I personally will hold off to 2009/2010 so that I can get a better look.

Also, if you are affluent enough that you can afford to lose, say, half a mil, then I think finding a prime Saratoga home at around 1.4M may not be a bad idea. After all, money is for buying joy as well, what is the point of money if you cannot buy a bit of self-gratification. I am just not in a situation to ignore a half mil loss.

astrid,

as the middle class, esp the middle upper class of America get marginalized, they typically converge on particular locations, rather than disperse. They converge in places with good job prospects, good schools, and a natural location with enough greenbelt, scenery, nature, etc. The coming oil crisis will make this trend even more obvious, in essence, people tend to live more together. Crime is another reason driving people to flock to certain suburbs.

For example, Palo Alto only has about a total of 700 homes listed each year. Saratoga has fewer. The *right* pockets of Saratoga have even fewer, probably less than 100 a year. I won't put LG on the same rank as Saratoga, I rank the *right* pockets of Saratoga along with the *right* pockets of Los Altos and Los Altos Hills. The total listings in the *right* pockets from these suburbs probably will be less than 300 each year. Do you think you can find 300 households who can fork over 1.4M for these 300 listings each year? I think I can.

Sorry for sounding like a snob, but if you live here long enough, you will know the difference in the same town, it is more than just an address.

astrid,

I will move to Seattle if we continue to rain like this. I know how far 1.5M can go in Seattle, even today. I can move into Medina and be BillG's neighbor.

>I believe patric.net INVENTED the term CONDOTINO

I believe Peter P. invented the term.

No, I thought Lunarpark invented the term... or perhaps some newspaper.

plenty of uranium in australia, hee hee

Australia's vast resources of uranium amount to a staggering 40% of the world's total identified resources of uranium recoverable at low cost.

http://www.ga.gov.au/ausgeonews/ausgeonews200512/uranium.jsp

we'll sell it to you if you're nice, but don't think about getting it by bringing democracy to this country -- we already have some, thank you...

hmm, good ol' kiyosaki:

http://www.johntreed.com/Kiyosaki.html

financial genius...

"The article says “Kiyosaki’s got his…” and that he lives in a $3.5 million dollar home in Phoenix.

A real-estate broker visitor to this site ran a computer search on Kiyosaki and said Kiyosaki owned two properties in Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix). The assessor’s records showed a purchase price (10/6/99) of $1.2 million and a “full cash value” of $980,000 on his residence, 62 Biltmore Estates Circle, Phoenix, AZ 85016. Neither value is any slouch, but it ain’t $3.5 million. A visitor to this Web site who lives in Phoenix said Kiyosaki spent a lot of money on improvements finishing around April, 2002. A caller in July of 2003 said the house was worth about $2.5 to $3 million then. The other property (a five-room house built in 1979, 2,300 square feet, 1809 East Lane Avenue, Phoenix, AZ 85020) had a current “full cash value” of $171,500. He purchased that 8/8/91. It was the house he moved out of when he bought the Biltmore Estates house.

A visit to the Maricopa County Recorders Web site shows that he bought the Biltmore home from an odd home seller—the National Model Railroad Association. You can see at the Web site that the down payment was originally $23,000, but that was crossed out and $300,000 was written in. The recording number from the assessor’s records is 990929308 10/6/99."

he's a big 'xaggerator...

fair enough, george...

in the present day kiyosaki article he still quotes his 'rich dad' as saying something fatuous like: "This is when God reminds you that you're not as smart as you thought you were." what a mine of wisdom that rich dad was...

elsewhere, reed points out that rich dad has never been named in the acknowledgements in the books, nor been tracked down as a real person, and kiyo has said 'so what if he's not real?' in interviews.

and i can sell you a good work of non-fiction by james frey ;)
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/jamesfrey/0104061jamesfrey1.html

but was kiyo the original phoenix specuvestor?

It seems Rich Dad/Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has weighed in on the Housing Bubble….can’t say I disagree either:

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/3413

Having just read through this link, most of it is rehashed stuff other people have said long before Kiyosaki. The interesting thing is that Kiyosaki continues to pimp himself at the Learning Annex real estate seminars (discussed on previous threads) at the same time he is writhing this crap.

OwnerOccupier,
Seriously- If you really have 1.5 million bucks, you have the ability to totally avoid the pricey areas, settle in an area like Dallas-Austin-Raleigh-Atlanta... or just about anywhere else besides The entire west and East coast and be set absolutly for life. We're talking a very nice house in a very nice neighborhood, with enough money to set aside to live off of without a job until you die. I know if I were in your shoes, I'd jump at this chance. Seattle is basically a little less expensive than SF but with (usually) wetter weather.

Amazing saavy
I borrowed and lost, popped
My swagger replaced

Owneroccupier Says:

Anything above 2M will get a serious haircut. But I personally sense a lot of support at around 1M level.

That's an interesting observation - I totally agree. There's a pretty distinct cutoff in volume of interested buyers at the just-over $1M level. The market thins pretty quickly above the ~$1M masses, in the $1.5M to $2.5M range, and above that it seems to be a whole other ballgame (the aforementioned Google/stock option lottery winners, etc). We're keeping an eye on the low end of some pricey areas as well (Woodside, Portola Valley), and believe me, there is a fair amount of crap in that range to sort through. Observers outside the BA can't help but be floored by these numbers, I would guess.

" Observers outside the BA can’t help but be floored by these numbers, I would guess.

Trust me. They are. The last time I went to visit my folks, I went to have breakfast with my dad's boss for some business advice. He started a number of smaller cable networks and vartious book stores across the region and has a very nice home on the lake- a property that is valued at around 600k, but would probably fetch several million in anywhere CA. One of the first things he asked me was how in the hell do people afford to live out there? I didn't have an answer for him. He's made a lot of sucess for himself by using common sense. He has no college degree either. He made a very interesting comment that basically, people are constantly in a state of conditioning. For example, Gas may go up to $3.50 a gallon, which shocks the hell out of people for a few weeks and makes the headlines. Then the prices go down to $2.89 and suddenly, everyone thinks we're getting a bargain. Such is the case in California real estate. If the prices go up to a new platue, of course we're all shocked, but eventually, people start nodding their heads thinking that 450k is a "real bargain" Versus the new level set at 600k. In a way, Californians are sort of insulated from the rest of the country.
Basically, people lose track of common sense fairly quick, and the result is a lack of restrainment. If it were up to me and I ran the education system, I would make it a requirement that students would have to take a 3 week bus trip across the country and gauge the true nature o the country and get a sense of what values mean to diffrent areas of the nation. Perhaps this would help instill common sense and a return to a realistic evaluation of economics.

nomadtoons2,

You're dad is right on the mark in terms of conditioning. I spent a few years in Boston as well, and people there are completely used to the frigging cold-as-hell winters, so after a week of -20deg F, 30deg is balmy, and you see die-hards coming out in t-shirts. The exposed pasty skins are a sight to behold. However, it's one thing to be insulated from reality (which Californians are in more ways than just RE), but it's another thing to actually have the means to still pay for these prices. It's been beaten to death, but the means clearly come from a combination of loose lending standards, the pyramid scheme of equity (long-time owners sell and can afford more expensive homes with the equity they've cashed out) and the higher-end money folks in the BA (Google effect).

Housing crashes big,
I dance in the streets and smile!
Die you greedy dogs...

SF Woman,

And the only thing less charming than Medford, OR are the actual inhabitants.

SFwoman,
Well, I was there around 10 years ago. Mind you that I was still very green to cities in general, so any city to me was cool. I recall the traffic was appalling, and it was very hot. I recall it being a fairly nice place, but then again- I haven't been there in a long time. Perhaps it is truly disgusting. Half of my company is located there. The entire marketing team just got back from there and had a blast, but maybe it was because it has been raining here since December. Sort of funny that some of the guys in Dallas were trying to convince some of them to sell and move there.
Maybe Dallas is ugly. Perhaps Iowa is beautiful and scenic. I don't know- never been there. Maybe South Dakota is heaven on earth. Beats me, never even flown over it. So as you can see, my actual knowledge of vast chunk of the country are inconclusive. So when I say places like Dallas, I'm simply using it as an example of another major metropolitan area that has a supremely opposite contrast to here in terms of raw costs associated with it. Maybe it's hell on earth. Then again- lots of people live there- more so than here in fact, so there must be things about that area that the inhabitants like.Most people choose to not live in an area if they don't like it. Diffrent strokes for diffrent folks.

The lead article linked this morning (thank you Patrick) is titled:

"Most Lenders believe bubble bursting" which kind of surprised me. They're providing the "punch bowl" and even an alarming percentage acknowledge that there is a bubble with substantial probabilities of real declines? What was even more alarming was their assesment of the risk going forward.

"When asked to select from a list of six issues that had the most potential to hurt the US economy"

38% of the lenders said the federal budget deficit
18% said the war in Iraq
12% said the sluggish job market
9% said low household savings rate
9% said the RE bubble

Is this ass backwards or what? As a lender my first concern should be the ability of the borrower to repay the loan! Followed closely by the value of my collateral, the rest of it is all just politics and things that a lender has no control over. If these guys were that concerned about the deficit maybe they should have considered that before they underwrote a couple of trillion dollars in I/O mortgages in a bubbly environment.

I realize the context of the original question but they should concern themselves more with writing loans that make sense and less with external influences they can't control.

Shoot David Lereah
That monkey leads the parade
He deserves to die

PS, I'd like to add some perspective of my own concerning racism and biggotry by assuming that you aknowledge that it exsists in all corners of the globe- even SF. In my 22 years of living in that region, it was never a big issue. Sure- we have racsists there. We also have religious fanatics.I'm not going to blatently say there aren't problems, because there are.I walked around with a shaved head, some nasty bumper stickers, and hung out with all kinds of people who should have been in the popularly conceived rhetoric been thrashed and preached to by the locals.3 members of my family are gay. I am part native American and have fairly dark skin. You'd think I would've had problems. Hell- people used to make comments like "dirty mexican!" to me.But it was never a huge problem for me. racist examples are also in SF. The fact that ethinic groups are shoved into ghettos here- like hunters point and West Oakland is proof to me, except that people don't consider this to be racism. Racial segregation and unfair economic conditons are still rampant here.That's one of the reasons I'm probably going to move.It's just that people here tend to ignore it.There is no racsism in the context you mention because they're all shoved into hovels, conveniently shoveled out of site and mind. I've lived here for 7 years and this is my observation. And religion? Well to me religion is basically one man's gospel and vocation to preach to the masses. Then by definition, far left politics are the religion of the bay Area. Call it christianity- call it Budhism, or call it extreme liberalism. I have never been "preached" to more in my life than here, from people who are very, very sure of themselves. People who just know that what I know and observe is wrong. I listen attentivly, as it is our right to have free speech, but when everyone thinks and says the same things over and over, I can't help but associate it with the Sunday Sermon of another parable we've heard for years now.It's not diffrent to me.
The Great Red Fear(tm) will undoubtedly keep many people out of these regions indefinantly. To each his own, and I'm on the fence of what's really important for me. What this life has taught me so far is that nice people, and ugly people are everywhere, and where you choose to hang your hat is just that- a place to live and your ability to adapt.

@nomadtoons, love your work! Good stuff. I am sorry you were called a dirty mexican, as I truly am a dirty mexican.

tannenbaum Says:

I’ve been following your posts for awhile and all I can ask you is: What are you still doing here living in the Bay Area? You are clearly unhappy here. Pack up and move back to the South. What are you waiting for?

How is this comment any different from "if you don't like this country, you can get the hell out" spewed at protesters by jingoistic reactionaries, or "y'all ain't from around here" stereotypically uttered by some southern yokel? I happen to think a) nomadtoons2 is right about the liberal indoctrination in the BA, and b) counteropinions are good for the mainstream, even if in the BA that means being more conservative.

There is a lot of lip service paid to liberal ideals here, but a lot less action. NIMBY politics against housing development are a perfect example. For example, the attitude of Bolinas' anti-development movement portrayed by the national media is emarrassing to the BA, IMO.

tannenbaum,

Fair enough. Clearly, because nomad is a) still living in the BA and b) posting here, he is conflicted (unless he logistically hasn't been able to move yet). Of course I can't speak for him, but his previous posts have mentioned his indecision on this matter. Sounds like some longing for a somewhat idealized view of the south? As a bit of advice, when I moved to Boston a few years back, I couldn't wait to get out of the BA - I was in part sick of the same attitudes etc. nomad complains about (in addition to work-related decisions). In retrospect, my views of what New England would be like were also very much idealized, I was disappointed, and coming back to the BA was done with a much more objective perspective. Bottom line, nomad, if you do move back to the south, I'll wager that things there won't be as great as you envisioned, and you'll miss a lot of the good stuff about the BA.

SF Woman,

Yes, that's typically what happens and that's kind of my point. The lenders have become SO divorced from the consequences of their actions they think they should be more concerned with macro economic policy decision making than doing their jobs. Meaning writing loans that make sense.

DinOR wrote:

“As a lender my first concern should be the ability of the borrower to repay the loan! ”

Then SF Woman wrote:

"Don’t they just turn around and sell the loans? Maybe there is no incentive for them to care if there is any chance of the loan being repaid."

Very few "lenders" actually loan money, they just originate loans that are pooled and sold (often to people that don't understand the risk). As an actual commercial lender my first concern is the ability to "put earrings on the pig" as we call it and keep the loan from getting kicked out of the pool until it is sold. Residential lenders almost never have loans get kicked out so their big down side is just making less money when an individual loan is rated as higher risk. All lenders have made a ton of money over the past few years so we all taking even bigger risks today since one bad quarter if we get our hands slapped is no big deal when we have had 20 quarters in a row of bigger and bigger profits. Due to the real estate bubble almost none of the bond buyers have lost money in years so they seem to feel that CMBS bonds are now risk free and buy them for a small spread premium over treasury bonds. When the bond buyers start loosing money (and they will) they will demand higher spreads and push the cost of lending even higher pushing even more people in to default...

Skibum,

I couldn't agree more! Besides have you SEEN how awful people in New England age. (This coming from the Kieth Richards of stock trading) Yeah, I haven't aged well, but getting up at four in the AM was my chosen profession, along with the stress. We had a national sales manager that worked like 70 hours a week, smoked and stayed out with the boys until closing time then did it all again the next day. Went home on the "Cape" for the weekends. Dead at 54. Nice guy too. No thanks.

The small rural farm town I grew up in in Southwest Ohio was propelled to a short-bit of national fame a few years ago when it was featured in Time Magazine, and then other rags, as "America's Best Small Town". For a couple of years I couldn't hear enough about how ideal of a place this must be (from people who'd never lived in the rural Midwest, let alone a small rural town, let alone _my_ small town). I read every magazine and newspaper account, always wondering what would happen to all those ideal-chasers when they faced the reality of a very nondescript, traditional and quite boring small town, not to mention the very different rigid social pecking order that keep small towns what they are.

That was many years ago. There was a small sideline about my town a couple years later in BW, when they did a best states to live and work in issue (and Ohio was featured as having fallen the farthest the fastest). They tracked three of the families who had moved in from the East, West and South. Only the family from the South had stayed for 5 years, and they were planning to move to Florida soon, saying "never having felt we were welcome to lay roots here".

All I'm saying is that _I_ could comfortably move back to that "idea" small town and have a chance at realizing some of the promise, but almost none of you could. This is something to keep in mind. Anyone can move to Nashville, Atlanta, Cincinnati, etc., but it's much harder to move to a village unless you have some roots there already.

My views are quite similar to Nomadtoons', and I too am still here. Let me tell you why:

First, my elderly in-laws are here. We are staying here in order to be near them. If prices don't fall within the next couple of years I will probably force them to move to Chicago or Dallas with us. They are in their 80's, and everything they are familiar with is here, so I am waiting a little longer in the hope that we won't have to ask them to move.

Second, I like it here. CA is a wonderful place. It has many problems, but there is a lot of good stuff too. And I can ignore most of the problems. I am an ultra-conservative Republican, for example, but the extreme liberalism I am surrounded by doesn't really bother me. We Republicans have had to deal with the liberal media, liberal educational system, etc. for decades and we're used to feeling like outsiders. Becuase I like living here, and can put up with the disadvantages, I have decided to sit tight and rent just a little bit longer in the hope that I will be able to afford to stay.

Third, CA does have some professional advantages that other states don't have. I can tell you that the LA legal community is far, far more sophisticated than the one in Chicago. The overall quality of legal work is noticably higher here, and that's rewarding. The pay is not higher, but my job is more challenging and intersting than it was in Chicago. Here in CA, I get to work with the very best. There are plenty of good lawyers in Chicago, but the opportunities to do truly exceptional work are fewer there. This is true for a lot of professions -- entertainment, music, arguably tech, etc.

Finally, there is a desire not to give up. The economic forces that underlie this housing bubble are bigger than I am, I understand that. But I don't want to quit, you know?

Anyway, that's my $0.02. The one other thing I would add is that people who have lived in other areas sometimes have a broader perspective as a result of this. For instance, yeah, people in the South can be very religious. It always makes me uncomfortable to hear someone refer to "my faith" in casual conversation, for example, even though I myself am a fairly devout Catholic. But those obnoxious old hippies here in LA are every bit as bad in their own way. During the 2004 election season my wife's car got keyed three times and egged twice thanks to her Bush/Cheney bumper sticker. One time I was at a meeting at this public interest law firm in Santa Monica, one guy casually mentioned that he didn't know anyone who supported the Iraq war. When my boss volunteered that I support it, the guy leading the meeting stopped in mid sentence. You could have heard a pin drop in the silence that followed. The thing was, they weren't angry at the discovery of heritc in their midst -- oh, no. They had never even met anyone who had those views. They looked at me with utter confusion and amazement. The experience was that novel.

There are closed-minded people everywhere. The South, the Midwest, and CA all have them. People like Nomadtoons and I aren't put off by the idea of moving to an area where people are religious becuase we are already putting up with just as much rigidity and intolerance right here. That kind of thing is inescapable, there is no reason to pack up and move -- or refrain from packing up and moving -- because of it.

-"idea"
+"ideal"

FormerAptBroker,

I think you've nailed it here! I moved out of MBS some time back b/c the asset class as a whole is not healthy. And you're right, investors are not being paid for the risk they are taking. I must admit that I didn't know about the "one bad apple" when putting together a block of loans though. It's going to be a sh*tstorm.

Randy H,

Chagrin Falls?

DinOR,

That's NE Ohio. I'm from SW Ohio. Hint, they shot a movie there after all the hoopla because the downtown looks like something out of 1800s Americana.

nomadtoons2 Says:

"The fact that ethinic groups are shoved into ghettos here- like hunters point and West Oakland is proof to me, except that people don’t consider this to be racism. Racial segregation and unfair economic conditons are still rampant here."

Ethnic groups are not "shoved" in to ghettos here, they can live anywhere they want…

Every one of my black friends as an undergrad had lower high school grades and SAT scores than my white friends (and way lower than my Asian friends) but almost every one had more job offers and made more money after graduation.

Everyone of my black friends in grad school had lower undergrad grades and GMAT scores than others I knew yet every one of them got way more job offers and were making way more money after graduation.

Just because many ethnic groups that "chose" to live in ghettos does not mean that members of the same ethnic group will have any problem doing well...

Randy H,

I know it will come to me! I had a client from Chagrin and he always commented that it looked like something out of a Norman Rockwell painting. Speaking of which the Silverton Mural Society elected some years back to use his work as the basis for our image. The film Bandits w/Bruce Willis was filmed here b/c of it's 1800's appeal. What you say about "having roots" is so true. I managed for alot of banks and institutions but found myself in an uphill battle to get people to move their IRA over even though I've lived here for almost 20 years.

DinOR,

The movie was a screen adaptation of a Neil Simon Pulitzer Prize winning play. It was filmed there for the same reasons: Normal Rockwell frozen in time.

I will tell you about a cultural difference that really does make me want to leave CA: extravagent children's birthday parites.

When I was growing up in a blue-collar Midwestern exurb, birthday parties were low-key affairs. The parents would bake and decoarte a Betty Crocker-style cake themselves; you would only get a bakery cake for really special occasions, like confirmation and graduation. If lunch was served at the party it would consist of hot dogs and Fritos, or maybe pizza. There were no clowns or entertianers of any kind. If someone was feeling really, really flush they'd get an ice cream cake from Baskin-Robbins, but that was pretty much as extravagant as it got.

Venues like Chuck-E-Cheese and Showbiz Pizza were too expensive for birthdays. The average family could not afford to take 15 kids there. Instead, groups would go there -- the soccer team, the Cub Scout troop, etc. Each parent would contribute $4.00 or $7.00 or whatever to cover the cost of their own kid's meal. This worked out well for everyone: the kids got to go to the restaurant, the parents could afford the cost, and every family was able to take advantage of the savings offered by the group rate.

Imagine my surprise when my kids started getting invited to birthday parties out here. A former coworker recently invited me to her daugher's third birthday party. It was to be held at her house, and features the following attractions: Pony rides, a clown, a ballon vender, a face painter, and catered food. Again, it is her daughter's third birthday. This is the second such party my kids have been invited to. The other one was held at a Children's Museum and was almost as extravagent.

Both of the women who hosted these parties are excellent mothers. They are having these parties for the the noblest of reasons; they want to make their kids' birthdays special. And the parties aren't that expensive in absolute terms, even the one with all of the entertainers can't possibly cost more than $1500-$2000.

But the whole thing still creeps me out, badly. I do not like seeing children's parties that are this extravagent. It sends a chill down my spine. I think it sends the wrong message to impressionable little kids. I do not want my kids attending these parties, and we sure as hell will not be throwing one.

This is a genuine cultural difference that really bothers me. This is the kind of thing that really might become a deal breaker if it keeps on happening. I often feel like a fish out of water here, but that's okay, it's part of life. Besides, now that I have lived outside of the Midwest I am no longer entirely comfortable either. Life is full of compromises. But man, these birthday parties are the sort of thing that might just make me pack up and move away.

@Joe Schmoe,

What's your problem? Aren't the little darlings worth it? You should feel positively guilty for not taking out a third mortgage to finance a party your three-year-old will barely remember someday! C'mon and get with the program, man... Exactly how long have you been here? Living here should have taught you that Big Spending = love by now.

I just don't get your attitude... Oh, and btw, please sign my petition to ban any new housing or property taxes, please. I'm entitled to become eternally rich and live off the appreciation of my 1960's split-level ranch. And don't trust anyone under 40. Far out...

HARM, DinOR-

The funny thing is, when my wife wanted to get the cake for our eldest son's first birthday party from a bakery, it was sort of a watershed moment for me.

"Well, I am a rich lawyer now," I told myself. "I've got to get used to this sort of extravagence. It may make me uncomfortable, but I am in a different world now and just have to get used to these things, like it or not."

I resolved to make extra certain that my kids would not be spoiled by the extravagence of a store-bought birthday cake.

Little did I know...

tannenbaum,

In general I will tend to agree with you but I defy you to show me an opulent childrens's birthday party in Cicero! I'll know that more people have joined my club b/c there will be virtually NO traffic on the weekends (which used to sacred btw) and "shows" like the Home Decorating Show etc. will evaporate b/c of lackluster attendance! Please remember to make the LEAST of your weekend by making it as uneventful as possible.