patrick.net

BayArea says

DooDahMan says

No, I am still not Logan. This article above is still behind a paywall on HousingWire, I am merely trying to give credit to who wrote the piece.

I didn’t suspect you were Logan until you posted this unsolicitedly

Wasnt unsolicited......user Nuttboxer calls everyone who doesnt believe in a 40-60% house price crash Logan Motashami. LOL

Did Logan Mohtashami get banned? I thought he was a member here. At least he was 3-4 years ago.

Goran_K says

Did Logan Mohtashami get banned? I thought he was a member here. At least he was 3-4 years ago.

there was this wide spread RE crash expectation on this blog and he kept arguing against it with data and his models. His main reasons for a coming booming housing market were driven by high demand, demographics and low rates.
He was right and the crash bro's put him on ignore. He left.

Bitcoin says

there was this wide spread RE crash expectation on this blog and he kept arguing against it with data and his models. His main reasons for a coming booming housing market were driven by high demand, demographics and low rates.
He was right and the crash bro's put him on ignore. He left.

Dang that kinda sucks. I enjoyed Logan's posts, and I actually joined PatNet as a bear.

You can easily follow him on website/social media. He write frequently and is on podcasts. I like him a lot.....level headed, realistic. And I like his style....He doesnt attract the masses with flashy sensationalized headlines.

Philly has been a shithole for the past 40 years - this is news?

@FarmersWon

I think you should have some kind of daily paragraph explaining the complexities of India. There are so many questions? Is it that the British fucked that whole country up and now it's just a stinking quagmire now?

How did India get to be such a shithole in relation to all of these social/diversity issues? It is purposeful?

WineHorror1 says

@FarmersWon

I think you should have some kind of daily paragraph explaining the complexities of India. There are so many questions? Is it that the British fucked that whole country up and now it's just a stinking quagmire now?

How did India get to be such a shithole in relation to all of these social/diversity issues? It is purposeful? In America, I believe our diversity issues are purposeful.

Do you live in the US? Do you believe diversity is moral or a strength? Do you do what most Indians do and simply hire/promote Indians when/if you are able to?

FarmersWon says

Hindoo wage which is $1 a day is big problem.

Look, this is terribly unfair, but how about this?

Fire them all and let them starve and move production elsewhere.

Because that's the alternative. Is this incorrect?

Yes, it's terrible that CHILDREN are spending their lives making Nike sneakers - get rid of the factory - what are the consequences? What's the result of doing that? Perhaps revolt in the nation, perhaps starvation. It's not simple, and understanding economics is an enormous task - it's understanding how an entire planet cooperates.

FarmersWon says

Hindoo have no jobs. they will love to work in Nike manufacturer. It will improve their life 100x ... which is a shame that how low base they have.
Hindooo elites are thugs and 100x worse than US globalists

Is your grammar ironic? I can't tell.

Desperate people do desperate things.

I really have no concept of your thinking.

FarmersWon says

You have to meet some people who live on $1 a day . It will be easy to grasp after that.

This is not an answer. Is it better that they make nothing?

Don't answer me in riddles, think.

The problem with affordable housing is that people who own houses already usually don’t want affordable housing… so there will be no affordable housing, at least not on any scale that makes a difference to the masses.

To go further, NOBODY who owns a home will want to own that home next to affordable housing because the risk to their investment is too high.

exactly. NIMBY. I got my home(s) screw you guys who rent. I hated it prior to owning homes. Now I am the same. In a sense its survival of the fittest.

Homeownership is an exclusive club.

It has to be otherwise the lawn goes to shit quickly and after the lawn goes, everything goes.

Booger says

This

BayArea says

The problem with affordable housing is that people who own houses already usually don’t want affordable housing… so there will be no affordable housing, at least not on any scale that makes a difference to the masses.

To go further, NOBODY who owns a home will want to own that home next to affordable housing because the risk to their investment is too high.

Bitcoin says

exactly. NIMBY. I got my home(s) screw you guys who rent. I hated it prior to owning homes. Now I am the same. In a sense its survival of the fittest.

The irony is that where we used to rent in pac heights in SF there was newly built affordable housing that was more luxurious than the 1900s moldy crap shacks falling apart around them. It even had its own daycare. The people living there were pretty normal, not too thuggy, so the prices around it were actually supported by that new affordable housing construction. It's more about the number of hobos on the streets, shit and trash on the streets, crime (we def had many car break ins and some burglaries), junkies and shoplifting. The hood isn't doing well due to the general SF decline, but the affordable housing block didn't have much to do with it.

how “affordable” was that housing you describe?

And sure, there’s women that are taller than men. We can show some examples.

BayArea says

how “affordable” was that housing you describe?

And sure, there’s women that are taller than men. We can show some examples.

Well it's probably an outlier, after all it is SF which gives hobos better housing than taxpaying renters who rent crapshacks and are footing the bill.

BayArea says

The problem with affordable housing is that people who own houses already usually don’t want affordable housing… so there will be no affordable housing, at least not on any scale that makes a difference to the masses.

To go further, NOBODY who owns a home will want to own that home next to affordable housing because the risk to their investment is too high.

Affordable housing is also a grift for democrat politicians. How many billions of dollars has SF levied upon residents for affordable housing programs?

How many units have actually been built?

Most of the money went into fulfilling debt obligations. Even the homeless care non-profits in SF are grifts. Seriously, look at their budget expenses, 85-90% “salaries”.

This time is different

@porkchopexpress I hear house prices are rapidly falling in Memphis TN. I know you've been scoping Nashville but perhaps it'll rub off soon if it hasn't already?

Goran_K says

BayArea says

The problem with affordable housing is that people who own houses already usually don’t want affordable housing… so there will be no affordable housing, at least not on any scale that makes a difference to the masses.

To go further, NOBODY who owns a home will want to own that home next to affordable housing because the risk to their investment is too high.

Affordable housing is also a grift for democrat politicians. How many billions of dollars has SF levied upon residents for affordable housing programs?

How many units have actually been built?

Most of the money went into fulfilling debt obligations. Even the homeless care non-profits in SF are grifts. Seriously, look at their budget expenses, 85-90% “salaries”.

The more govt grift the better for leftoids, they're useless otherwise

FJB says

@porkchopexpress I hear house prices are rapidly falling in Memphis TN. I know you've been scoping Nashville but perhaps it'll rub off soon if it hasn't already?

Thanks. I'm hoping it will if rates keep rising. We gotta break the back of this bitch.

For where we want to live for our kids, the market is ridiculously insane. We may end up renting another year here in CA just to see what happens.

Step One: Water is not land, nobody "owns it". Repeal all Iberian water laws and tell the Gettys and the rest of the big landowning Democrats to suck a cactus.
Step Two: Reserve water for Residential use for first, not including lawns. Lawn water can be brought bottled Aquafina or Dasani. If you have the wealth to have lawn grass in the desert, you can water your lawn with bottled water.
Step Thee: Expand water storage.

Boy I hope he’s not correct.
Lately my greed is being replaced by fear somewhat.

Beware the person who claims they predicted the future in the past in order to influence/manipulate you in the present about their predictions on the future present. It is a standard manipulative calling card of the con artist.

Yes, one major reason for deciding not to build the LCD factory is that they could not compete with the Chinese manufacturers. Also Wisconsin had a new governor elected which was another reason cited by the former project manager for the LCD factory to be built in Wisconsin.

I hope you aren’t making any decisions based on what this nut is saying

Played out.

Seems to me, from looking at the Russian miliary performance in Ukraine, that the money for military readiness, training, equipment, and upgrades was siphoned off by corrupt officials.

So, the spin is that the "Pandemic" caused Bay Area move-outs, and not the high taxes, crime, and bum population caused by the local politicians?

HeadSet says

So, the spin is that the "Pandemic" caused Bay Area move-outs, and not the high taxes, crime, and bum population caused by the local politicians?

Yep. And still way too many asshoes in the bay area clogging up shit

Good!

Too many people. As the population grows and people are living on top of one another, expect it to get worse. No matter what the solutions.

It's not rocket science. Cheap money is inflating the currency which drives up asset prices. Pulling that away will slow/stop the inflation and drive down asset prices.

porkchopexpress says

It's not rocket science. Cheap money is inflating the currency which drives up asset prices. Pulling that away will slow/stop the inflation and drive down asset prices.

Yep, stock price being driven by cheap money such as stock buybacks. Its not mostly because of productivity gains.

.

Look at the etf "ARKK".

Top 10 holdings include Tesla, Zoom, Roku, Coinbase, Teladoc Health, and Twilio.

S&P 500 is down + 14% but a lot of the major tech companies like Tesla, Facebook, AMD, etc are down at least 30%.

The only factor which may limit downside risk is the PE ratio. Its very low compared to 2000.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net

.

ad says

The only factor which may limit downside risk is the PE ratio. Its very low compared to 2000.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net

.

The earnings part of the P/E ratio was elevated in 2021 because of all the "free" money governments were giving to their citizens. There was also plenty of cash-out re-fi's people were spending.

The GDP contracted about 1.4% during the 1st quarter and overall spending from the federal government is forecasted to be about $1.3 trillion less than last year. Cash-out re-fi's have gone down dramatically since interest rates went up. Europe is in a recession and China is a mess. It is difficult to increase earnings with the economies declining.

Inflation is also having an impact on profit margins they also are declining.

While it is possible for stocks to go up with declining earnings and increasing interest rates, it would be an anomaly.