patrick.net

HunterTits says

Who gives a shit.

Californians.

Patrick is a Californian.

He began this blog in discussion about the insane housing market in the region.

B.A.C.A.H. says

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

CA handled plenty of housing crashes before. All the jobs and economy is here, they can get away with murder and still make it.

The real question, is Can California's economy handle real estate prices continuing to increase?

Pricing out employers (and so, employees), pricing out young families (whose children are needed for the economy to have any kind of future), pricing out every kind of low-, working-class, and middle-class workers in the service economy and local civil service.

Can California's economy handle that?

it'll stop when it can't man. right now people are still buying over asking. and it's conventional 20% loans. how long this will last? I don't know. But I still think that everything today will be double 10 years from now.

CA real estate prices keep surprising me. I thought 2010’s decade would repair the damages that were made in 2000’s, and we would see 2006-2007 prices again during this decade. Well, not only did we see these prices, we blew past it. Then came the roaring 2020’s. 🤯

Eventually, whenever that is, real estate prices should come back to the mean. They did for a while during 2009-2012, but some people kept insisting that prices were still too high and missed the boat.

I still remember BMWman bought a house in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. Everyone thought that was outrageously high. It has probably doubled in value now. Simply insane and not sustainable at this rate of appreciation, but who am I to say?

Non smokers and Conservatives will qualify for 5o year loans.

DooDahMan says

The average cost of a manufactured home in 2019 was about $82,000

Pure stupidity!

Follow the interest rates. If they keep going up, watch out below. Nothing else matters.

Yep, it's not just 80s and 90s boxy CBS homes that were going for $150k in Central Florida 4-5 years ago but $300k+ now, but RV Lots have gone from the $400s to the $900s - in the off season. A spot in a non-55 mobile home park are now in the high 5 figures. I've seen 6 figures for lots (basically 1/20th of an acre) in the nicer ones.

That map of Florida is totally wrong: The keys aren't "Part of Cuba", but Alcoholic Jimmy Buffet turning Wall Street Asshole. Normal People and Golf is what Martin, Palm Beach, and much of Broward used to be. Those areas are now Wokey Dokey, both from Yuppie Execs and Gimme Dats.

Eman says

CA real estate prices keep surprising me. I thought 2010’s decade would repair the damages that were made in 2000’s, and we would see 2006-2007 prices again during this decade. Well, not only did we see these prices, we blew past it. Then came the roaring 2020’s. 🤯

Eventually, whenever that is, real estate prices should come back to the mean. They did for a while during 2009-2012, but some people kept insisting that prices were still too high and missed the boat.

I still remember BMWman bought a house in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. Everyone thought that was outrageously high. It has probably doubled in value now. Simply insane and not sustainable at this rate of appreciation, but who am I to say?

i didn’t understand reasons for this well until i spoke to political leaders in CA. Once i saw where all the funding and money is in, it became very clear.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Where is the next Boise? All of them Californians moving there spells its demise.

Im moving to Boise, already made it clear to neighbors im not a liberal. every house in subdivision has trump and blue lives flags. fucking beautiful.

HunterTits says

Goran_K says

Oh don't worry. That's about to get repealed in a few years. They tried the commercial property repeal a few years ago and BARELY lost. Prop 13's days are numbered.

Uh, no. You confuse the two.

Just because the homeowning voters were mostly in support of nailing commercial property does not translate into them doing the same to themselves. No way.

That's why the repeal ONLY mentioned commercial property.

Oh, and now that lots of Californians are transferring actual ownership to LLCs, trusts and corps themselves, the window for even supporting the carve out for corporate property is diminishing, not increasin.

I am not confused at all. You have too much faith in Democrats in California. I know exactly what their game plan is.

The commercial repeal was just a test of how far they could push it. It nearly passed. California is bleeding conservative voters and moderates to other states in droves right now. In a few years, I will bet anyone here up to $5,000 that the commercial repeal gets put to a vote AGAIN and this time it passes.

Once that passes, the residential one will be next and the long term trend isn’t looking good. Democrat politicians in California can see the same numbers I see. Home ownership in CA has dropped nearly 10% since its peak in 2005 and the current ownership rate is 17% below the current national average. Once it goes under 50%, Prop 13 is dead and gone. Guaranteed. California democrats will most likely get rid of it in a trade off; something like “We need to get rid of prop 13 to support CA Healthcare for all.”

That’s all it will take.

Ceffer says

Which of those branches lead to Caligulan excess? I regret that I don't see any Caligulan excess in there.

inflation lowered expectations from caligulan solendor to 900sqft apartment in a blue collar neighborhood with a 2 hour commute to work.

Boise downtown is California lite.

There's a ®ealtor For Sale sign in front, but the Real Estate website says it's off the market. Sold already. That's where they got the $1.087 M valuation from.

We know what that means. The sign is for the ®ealtor to attact more Greater Fools to their next pocket listings.

The lucky buyer signed up for a Property Tax bill close to $1000/month for the privilege of owning this gem. What's with the bars on the windows, anyways?

Note the stucco'd over garage door. Does the 1100 sq ft cited on the website include the floorspace of the converted garage?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/?source=patrick.net

RedStar says

Boise downtown is California lite.

last time i was there saw 1 black guy total there. at first was worried, like shit this place is going down. but then thought to myself… hes alone how badly can he fuck it up all by himself? itll be fine.

HunterTits says

RedStar says

I'm pretty sure the industry will roll out 40 year mortgages to keep prices up,

Right before the Japanese super-bubble in the 90s popped, they were offering 100 year multi-generational mortgages there.

The banker who gets on stage and pats himself on the back by spouting utter bullshit by calling a 100yr mortgage an "innovation" deserves a punch to the mouth for being so damn stupid.

Is it a good time to buy a house? JK

The state of RE is bananas! Union Bank advertising 5.5% 30yr fixed today.

Zillow says another year of double digit gains in 2022.

Bananas 🍌

If you want a career, get a job!

So many young people don't seem to want to work. They want a credential and a high paying job but are not willing to put the work and sacrifice into getting there.

Success is not a destination you arrive at, it's an altitude that you fly at.

Not sure when but recession may slowdown or crash the prices which will be followed after the current pent-up demand ends. At least in Bay area there is almost no new building activity to slowdown the prices.

Fortwaynemobile says

Im moving to Boise

North or south of downtown, if you don't mind me asking. Boise seems to be spreading out, with quite a few planned communities on the outskirts.

DooDahMan says

The 5 largest ethnic groups in Boise City, ID are White (Non-Hispanic) (83.2%)

Yeah, but what is the trend? Maine be the whitest state, BTW.

Fortwaynemobile says

RedStar says

Boise downtown is California lite.

last time i was there saw 1 black guy total there. at first was worried, like shit this place is going down. but then thought to myself… hes alone how badly can he fuck it up all by himself? itll be fine.

I was about 8 years old when I saw my first black.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Fortwaynemobile says

Im moving to Boise

North or south of downtown, if you don't mind me asking. Boise seems to be spreading out, with quite a few planned communities on the outskirts.

to the north west of it

Eman says

CA real estate prices keep surprising me.

Nobody wants to live there anymore, yet prices keep going up.

its a beautiful story of courage. i recommend everyone watch “30 seconds over tokyo”. thats america before woke bullshit, pure patriotic america

California doesn't have an economy, it's just a vacuum.

DooDahMan says

The 20 Worst Places to Live in Idaho

https://moneyinc.com/worst-places-live-idaho/?source=patrick.net

Absolute horseshit anti-Idaho propaganda.

Fortwaynemobile says

RedStar says

Boise downtown is California lite.

last time i was there saw 1 black guy total there. at first was worried, like shit this place is going down. but then thought to myself… hes alone how badly can he fuck it up all by himself? itll be fine.

Its not race, its leftist mentality.The closest I would live to Boise would be Kuna or Middleton.

So where is the next California I can invest in early?

NoYes says

So where is the next California I can invest in early?

Florida, all rich people are buying there, they know stuff before we do.

Booger says

Eman says

CA real estate prices keep surprising me.

Nobody wants to live there anymore, yet prices keep going up.

Ok, let’s separate the concepts at play here.
1)there’s still an incredible amount of industry that goes on in California.
2)workers are at a premium and wages are rising very fast. Target employees now start at $22/hour! $15 minimum wage is a reality. Union jobs abound in every trade.
3)the politics here suck and annoy the piss out of conservatives, including myself.

But they still got a lot of us with that golden fishhook. Wife and I made well over $300k last year and our mortgage is comfortable. The past couple years have been a nightmare with lack of schools, masks, and vax mandates, but if that doesn’t start up again, it should go back to being merely annoying.

4)Liberals still seem to like California just fine with the funky politics.

ALL of the most important decisions you will make throughout your life will HAVE to be made with insufficient information. Whether it’s whether to study engineering or journalism, go to Stanford or State, get engaged to Rita or Mary, buy a home now or wait a few years… it will all be made without enough information to make a fully informed decision.
That’s where wisdom comes in. The power to make a good, perhaps even the best decision in the face of not knowing enough facts to inform that decision comes down to your personal level of wisdom. This is advanced through life experience and through making mistakes and living through their consequences. Even in the darkest tangle of terrible options, a wise man can see a path through.

Shaman says

ALL of the most important decisions you will make throughout your life will HAVE to be made with insufficient information.

Maybe, somewhat related. I ran across something years ago, I think from an American Indian source, stated as, "As you go through your path in life, you will likely come to a great chasm. Go ahead and jump. It is not as far as you think."

Let us keep our heads in the game, but let us not paralyze ourselves with over thinking.

RedStar says

Its not race, its leftist mentality.

This.
I'll take 10 black pakistani jew conservatives over 1,000 white commie fucks.

In fact, the white libs are usually the snobbiest, most racist, loudest mouth cunts in any demographic. Can't stand white liberals.

Rapid Growth in Personal Income Tax Revenue. Personal income tax revenue surged in 2020-21 despite the ongoing decline in employment. Personal income tax revenue totaled $127.7 billion in 2020-21, 29 percent above 2019-20. This trend of strong growth has continued so far in 2021-22. For example, withholding collections so far in 2021-22 have been 22 percent above the same months in 2020-21 and 32 percent above the same months in 2019-20. Similarly, September 2021 estimated income tax payments were up more than 50 percent over September 2020.

Asset Prices an Important Driver. After dropping significantly at the onset of the pandemic, stock prices rebounded dramatically. Stocks now are more than double their pandemic period low. Similarly, home prices have grown more than 25 percent since the start of the pandemic. These asset price gains likely have led to considerable increases in capital gains income. Along with this surge in assets prices has come a significant uptick in initial public offerings of California companies. This activity similarly has boosted the incomes of Californians who own or work for these companies, which results in both higher withholding collections and tax payments for capital gains.

Forecast Anticipates Slower Growth. The torrid pace of these recent trends is unlikely to be sustained for an extended period of time. As such, our forecast expects asset markets and initial public offering activity to moderate in the budget year, resulting in slower growth in withholding and tax payments for capital gains. In the out years, our forecast has an even stronger reversion of personal income tax revenues toward the historical, pre-pandemic trend. This is reflected in the fact that we forecast revenues to remain relatively flat from 2022-23 to 2023-24.
2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates

Shaman says

Ok, let’s separate the concepts at play here.
1)there’s still an incredible amount of industry that goes on in California.
2)workers are at a premium and wages are rising very fast. Target employees now start at $22/hour! $15 minimum wage is a reality. Union jobs abound in every trade.
3)the politics here suck and annoy the piss out of conservatives, including myself.

But they still got a lot of us with that golden fishhook. Wife and I made well over $300k last year and our mortgage is comfortable. The past couple years have been a nightmare with lack of schools, masks, and vax mandates, but if that doesn’t start up again, it should go back to being merely annoying.

4)Liberals still seem to like California just fine with the funky politics.

Yeah but I bought a full-auto select fire MP5 Navy last year for $42,000.

I have to say, after living most of my life thinking there was some trick to becoming wealthy, I now know that it's simply about making good decisions in life. Most of these decisions you will make the RIGHT choice if you have an IQ over 100 and above (so you don't need to be a genius), and have solid foundational and moral values.... WHICH you should have if your father stuck around and wasn't a cunt.

If you aren't a multi-millionaire by age 50 in this country, you either made some obviously BAD decisions, or were too lazy to take advantage of opportunities in your life.

Goran_K says

If you aren't a multi-millionaire by age 50 in this country, you either made some obviously BAD decisions, or were too lazy to take advantage of opportunities in your life.

this is the belief you should be very careful with, we already have politicians on both sides whose attitude toward working class can be summed up as "the rich earned their wealth, and poor earned their poverty". It's not good man. Just a friendly advice.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Goran_K says

If you aren't a multi-millionaire by age 50 in this country, you either made some obviously BAD decisions, or were too lazy to take advantage of opportunities in your life.

this is the belief you should be very careful with, we already have politicians on both sides whose attitude toward working class can be summed up as "the rich earned their wealth, and poor earned their poverty". It's not good man. Just a friendly advice.

Maybe, but according to the last FED Consumer Finances survey, people from 55-65 have an average net worth of about $1.2 million (2016 to 2019).

Now I won't make the claim the "rich earned their wealth" and the "poor earned their poverty" as a blanket statement. But I do believe lots of poor people, who stay poor (and I say this as someone who was formerly very poor), tend to make bad decisions.

The Brookings Institute, a left leaning org, studied over 50 years of data and found that if you do 3 things, you will overwhelmingly end up middle to upper class.

1) Graduate high school
2) Get a job
3) Get married before children

That's literally it. Now, if you break one of those rules and do the opposite (not graduate high school, have 3 children out of wedlock, etc), you will end up poor because of your poor decisions. Now think of which demographics tend to have a high percentage of single mother households. Now think of where those people tend to land on the income or net worth totem pole. It all makes sense.

Taxes aren't much better here in the NY metro area. My taxes are more than the mortgage at this point. Most of it is the schools. If you want a "good" school be ready to pay. Most teachers in our district who have been there any lenght of time (10 years plus) make six figures. Plus a pension. Not bad work if you can get it.