patrick.net

DooDahMan says

If you understand the war in the Ukraine

This is where anyone with a brain shoud stop reading. For a very obvious rason.

HunterTits says

Do you at least use a script for that?

One of the dumbest business models I've ever seen. Their retail locations are excessively expensive. It's one thing to have a lot with a gate, but another thing to have a car elevator. I've seen the structures here in Oak Brook, IL and other states. Those structures are $2-3M alone without land/lease costs. I don't understand how you can turn a profit selling used cars that way.

I'm no genius otherwise I'd be a billionaire, but I lol'd the first time I saw a Carvana. Was like who the fuck thought that would be profitable?

Using a once every 50 year tragedy as an excuse for a land grab. The wife and I were driving through Surfside and Golden Beach yesterday, we were noticing the new towers vs the older ones built before the 80's. Even though they looked like they could go another 50 years, you know there are politics at work that is eventually going to drive the residents out, and they will level it and build a new tower.

Not every building is cracking and is in danger of one day collapsing unexpected like the Champlain tower. Many are, but there are many that weren't built the same methods those 70's and 80's tension slab construction buildings were. Those older buildings were poured with 3 and 4 foot walls, they may need gutting one day and the plumbing and electrical redone, but the structure is fine and will continue to be. The problem is, those buildings look dated and are under 10 floors small square footage vacation and snowbird accommodations, Those were built with a different customer in mind. The thrifty retiree moving to south Florida to spend out their Golden years. As the demographics have changed to rich foreigners who have millions to spend on RE assets. They are just itching to replaced those Retirement flats, with 30 floors of modern state of the art Luxury suits.

RWSGFY says

RC2006 says

Title is completely wrong.

Yep: should be "Putin started a major shooting war in Europe and got an economic war in response"

No more like keep Russia as a boogeyman to keep NATO relevant and US industrial complex rolling. Russia has weak military full of old shit that cant even quickly crush a third world state on its border, boy what a threat. Taxheed Marten thanks you.

Bitcoin says

richwicks says

How pathetic that you are still getting the vaccine

Sorry to offend you by getting a booster, lol.

You're not offending me. You are confusing me.

It's like you touched a surface that was red hot, and and flinched, and now you're touching it again, surprised it's hot.

It's weird to see people that don't learn the first time.

Bitcoin says

First, this is a RE thread and second its my body my choice.

Yes, I won't even object if you decide to drink a bottle of bleach, but having said that, that will kill you.

Bitcoin says

I actually cant wait to get the next shot!

Yeah, like a good slave. You're well trained. It's astonishing. The last 2 years has made me realize how many many people I respected, are not respectable. They are pathetic. Disgust is how I feel about many many people now. Just disgust. You'd be turning Jews in in 1939 and tattling on your neighbor in 1920 Russia but you're in good company. I understand finally the contempt that the powerful has for people. So many people, they are just constant suck ups, how could they respect you? Do you respect yourself?

Well, get your booster, or you don't have PRIVILEGES, you already abandoned your rights.

Newsom has $300 dinners, Boris Johnson throws parties, Nancy Pelosi gets her hair blown out, and you're still "I'll take the shot please". They don't believe any of this shit, do you? It seems to me either you're pathetic or dumb - what are the additional options? Help me to understand.

DooDahMan says

Supply has gotten worse and worse this year, every single week in 2022 on a year-over-year basis.

How much of the housing is vacation rentals (i.e., VRBO, AirBnB, etc.) or second homes for wealthy people ?

I wonder if that is the reason why supply cannot keep up with demand enough to keep housing affordable.

I've been following the ETF that goes by the ticker "ITB". It already has been beaten down bad but not as bad as Facebook, AMD, etc.

.

richwicks says

Well, get your booster

Yep! In a few months!

Will be sure to let you know, so you can keep hijacking our real estate posts again with your vaccine conspiracy/the world is ending and 911 was an inside job fantasies.

Just remember buddy.....my body my choice :) And btw....you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

Bitcoin says

you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

I'm not sure. Inflation leads to a recession which leads to over correction of assets like housing and stocks.

Look at how much housing got beat up from 2008 to 2012.

.

Bitcoin says

Just remember buddy.....my body my choice :) And btw....you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

You've never looked at what happened during the Great Depression have you?

We're not going to have inflation. We're hitting the Mises Crack up boom.

https://www.patrick.net/post/1335674/2020-10-20-we-will-never-go-back-to-normal

I posted that 2 years ago. This whole bullshit pandemic was our LAST bailout. All this bullshit about having to get boosters, having to wear masks, all this bullshit - that is the distraction. It only exists to make you ask "why are they doing this?"

To distract you from the true purpose of the "pandemic".

Russia is a distraction as well. Every 100 years or so, we go through a reset because everybody that was alive at the time, is dead, and their kids and grandkids never listened. We just keep repeating the same mistakes, over and over and over again - but they aren't mistakes, they are completely planned.

richwicks says

We're not going to have inflation.

Right, sure. The inflation is a conspiracy. Not real. Enjoy those rent hikes!

I always chuckle when people who missed the buying opportunities of the past tell us about their wild conspiracy theories and how they know so much more. If the crash (sry meant big collapse) doesnt happen tomorrow, it will surely happen the day after. If not this year, than surely next year.

I see a pattern with those people. They dont own assets and its because of the bad, bad FED or XYZ. One guy even said, its because of us "fucks", the homeowners. Because we bought, he cant afford a home. ROFL

Just writing this makes me laugh out loud. Hey, its always someone else' fault, right? Cant be you, who doesnt have a high paying career or you who tried to outsmart the market (by trying to time it)?

My advice, get off zerohedge and start investing. Your life will change quickly. For instance....why not dollar cost avg into the stock market right now? Ah, i forgot....because perma bears never buy.....because it always will go lower in their mind!! One guy even said, you will have nothing left! S&P500 to zero!

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 8.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22, 2022.

... The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 71 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“With mortgage rates increasing last week to the highest level since 2009, applications continued to decline. Overall application activity fell to the lowest level since 2018, with both purchase and refinance applications posting declines. Refinance applications were 70 percent below the same week a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was in the 3-percent range,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months
.”

Added Kan, “In a period of high home-price growth and rapidly increasing mortgage rates, borrowers continued to mitigate higher monthly payments by applying for ARM loans. The ARM share of applications last week was over 9 percent by loan count and 17 percent based on dollar volume. At 9 percent, the ARM share was double what it was three months ago, which also coincides with the 1.5 percentage point increase in the 30-year fixed rate.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.37 percent from 5.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added

The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since December 2018.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

Mortgage Purchase Index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 17% year-over-year unadjusted.



https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_01084909843.html?source=patrick.net

Elon will turn it around.

1) A bunch of libturd crybabies are getting pink slips, this is a fact. If Elon is anything like the Elon of Tesla, he will be very quick and decisive with this. Good bye Vijaya Gadde, good luck sucking dicks on the side of Bay Bridge on ramp. Make sure they are extra sloppy.

2) Elon is going to make the subscription model work. The $2.99 a month blue check idea? BRILLIANT. You eliminate bots, or at least drastically remove their effectiveness, and you give people an ego boost for $3 a month for hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

3) Twitter is about to get a membership boost of about 20%. All the moderates and conservatives who avoided the platform because of libturb banning policies will swarm back to challenge every woke lefty idea now with reckless abandon. Every shitlord in their basement to every blue check Ben Sharpiro wannabe is going to challenge "gender is a spectrum" on every single damn tweet, which is GOOD.

I’m glad Elon took over, but I would not invest in it with my own money.

I can’t imagine buying Twitter bonds nor its stock.

I love the story of Gadde crying, the top censor is going to hit the bricks soon.

Twatter can't die fast enough.

It's not even good for war porn because it censors flying Russian asses like this one:

Prices will return to what was before fake man made pandemic.
May be slightly higher due to inflation. All the artificial money bulge created for vaccine makers have to be taken back by govt.

HunterTits says

It looks like there is tits shortage making you crazy to spam everything.

DooDahMan says

Even in the face of soaring mortgage rates, CoreLogic still thinks the chances of prices declining in 2022 are fairly low. Why? The real estate research firm points to the mismatch between inventory and strong buyer demand. That's also reflected in its national forecast. Over the coming 12 months, CoreLogic predicts U.S. home prices are poised to rise 5%.

I cant wait for the perma bears to react when house prices actually increase YoY while they tell us everyday of this upcoming 40-60% decline in prices YoY. Lol

You bastar* and you bloody narrative. You keep sharing musli* lies. It was dalits who killed him.

Build house in air, like they do near the shore.

indc says

You bastar* and you bloody narrative. You keep sharing musli* lies. It was dalits who killed him.

Shame on you Hindoo!! How much can Hindoo cultist lie?
Hindooo has only given $1 a day to 80% and when they ask anything, Beating starts.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ambedkariteIND/status/1470225363603132418?source=patrick.net
#Casteism A Dalit man made to do sit-ups, lick spit. A candidate for the post of Panchayat head, Balwant Singh, has been accused of blaming the Dalit community for his loss & beating up two people from the community as they allegedly did not vote for him..

Dirty Hindooo justifying beating of untouchables.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AmbedkarCaravan/status/759660126009712640?source=patrick.net
BJP MLA from Hyderabad spreading hatred & supporting Dalit beating by Gau Rakshak Terrorists. #DalitsNotCows

$1 a day daily wagers suffering at hands of Hindooo goons.
Hindooo want to destroy the income of everyone, especially leather works of Muslims and untouchables.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Dilsedesh/status/1180874775733817346?source=patrick.net
BJP Leader Devkinandan Rathore, Chairman of Sangod Municipality, Kota, Rajasthan. is beating Dalit youth cuz he was dragging dead cow behind tractor Dear @ashokgehlot51
did people voted for you for this ? video courtesy @imMAK02

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrMungekar/status/1369947069713055747?source=patrick.net
I most strongly condemn the merciless beating of two Dalit boys in Rajasthan by the upper-caste thugs for reason not yet known. The CM, Mr @ashokgehlot51
must punish the criminals at the earliest.

Sikhs must continue to deliver for poor!
https://twitter.com/chuglipreet/status/1519462069422096384?cxt=HHwWgICsmfSsm5YqAAAA&source=patrick.net
These people have no concious. they exploited a young students desperation for shelter fully aware that their illegal basement is not fit for anyone and still demanded $2800! disgusting when we see international students taken advantage of like this. Greed is a gross disease

Ruble reaches two-year highs against Euro before steadying.

https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-rouble-hits-more-than-2-year-high-vs-euro-before-steadying-near-77-2022-04-26/?source=patrick.net

We get to see the first reading on the 1st quarter GDP tomorrow.

It should come in at about an annualized 1% growth rate.

The federal budget is about $1.3 trillion less than last years or about a 5% decrease in GDP and households simply aren't cash out re-fying like they were last year.

The Fed is talking about pushing interest rates substantially higher to subdue the economy even more.

What could go wrong ???

RC2006 says

No more like keep Russia as a boogeyman to keep NATO relevant and US industrial complex rolling. Russia has weak military full of old shit that cant even quickly crush a third world state on its border, boy what a threat. Taxheed Marten thanks you.

I think Russia, often like the US, is just getting rid of old and outdated military equipment. The Ukrainians have a 3:1 advantage in soldiers in the field there, and Russia doesn't seem to be having any real problems in my opinion and they are taking their time. From what I've heard (who knows if it's true?) is that Russia is now starving the Ukrainian army of fuel. If this drags on, it will be food next but hopefully it doesn't come to that.

Those 1000 or so Ukrainians that went underground under that steel works plant, have been sealed in. They are going to starve there, and probably resort to cannibalism before they do - that is, if they have sufficient water.

Douche bank has been bankrupt for years - they'll just lie about it, and nobody will audit them, and it will continue.

AmericanKulak says

Ruble reaches two-year highs against Euro before steadying.

Not much economic damage to Russia since it invaded Ukraine.

China and India can fill the gap as trade partners with Russia as well as lend them money and invest in Russia.

Plus a majority of Russian population lives a simple and nearly spartan life, granted they have cell phones, internet, indoor plumbing, electricity, etc; its that they don't have high expectations.

.

And in Israel...
The central bank, which as recently as 2020 held 67.4% of its foreign exchange in US dollars, 30.1% in euros and 2.5% in British pounds, now plans to have the pound and yen account for 5% each. The yuan will account for 2% of its holdings, while the currencies of Canada and Australia will each be 3.5%.
A reduction in US dollar and euro holdings is planned to make room for the new reserves being held. US dollar holdings will go from 66.5% in 2021 to 61%, down about 8.3%, while euro holdings will be reduced from 30.8% to 20%, down 35%.

Have you seen the Kashmir files? Tried downloading it a few times, couldn't find a good copy with English subs.

NuttBoxer says

Have you seen the Kashmir files? Tried downloading it a few times, couldn't find a good copy with English subs.

What is that?.. Can you share audio/video link.

@Booger Where is that house?

I like it. Wonder if it really needs to be that high though.

Those were Ukrainians according to the article I saw about it.

Patrick says

Those were Ukrainians according to the article I saw about it.

Yeah, isn't that from the video where a bunch of Ukrainians were hanging around and were fired upon by a tank?

What I hate about this war is Russia isn't even really trying. They allow their military to be 1/3rd the size of Ukraine's, they have complete air superiority, they have apparently cut off energy lines completely, so it seems to be a fait accompli, but the mother fuckers that were INSTALLED by the United States still just get people killed needlessly.

If this is the case, it's just a slaughter of a bunch of people needlessly. We'll find out in a month or two.

I hope Zelenskyy and Ihor Kolomoyskyi are executed at the end of this. There was no reason for this war. You only fight a war if there's a just cause and if there's a reasonable expectation of being victorious. I don't think either of those requirements were met.

WaPo was in shit shape before Bezos took over. I think it's no longer bleeding, but don't think he brought it to be a huge revenue stream, but a loss leader to promote Amazon (and thus his) needs to no sanctions on China, focusing criticism from Concentration Camp Panda (CCP) to Putin, mass immigration, and other Oligarch Policies.

I do recall that Bezos basically froze salaries right after he brought it and I believe it's now very modestly profitable.

I'm also sure Musk is going to rock SFBA by moving Twitter's operations out, since there's no reason for Twitter to be there that can't be done elsewhere, and hold to my prediction that this decade will see SFBA become the Tech Detroit.

It seems that Bill Gates has to pump 120 million a year or so into MSNBC to keep it afloat. I'm not really sure that these MSM rackets even care about profits, real or imagined, as long as the PTB continue to underwrite and subsidize them as propaganda outlets. That's where all the fiat printing press monies come into play.

Patrick says

@Booger Where is that house?

I like it. Wonder if it really needs to be that high though.

Don't know, but assume Gulf Coast in Texas.

So far the Rouble has held its value far better than the Euro has against the US dollar.

Richwicks is far too lenient in his appraisal of Euro banks. They are all toast.

The amount of corruption bucks flowing from the Ukraine to the US elite was piddly maybe a few billion dollars. The amount of corruption bucks flowing to the European elite was staggering. As of December 2021 the Ukraine had an external debt of about $129 billion, mostly to European banks. That money is gone, embezzled, corrupted to the elite, etc.

The Western media likes to harp on the economic damage being done to Russia via the sanctions. The Ukrainian economy is forecast to drop by about 45%. The people in power cannot hide that Ukraine's $129 billion cannot and will not possibly be repaid. Their only hope is simply to not mention Ukraine's debt and hope nobody notices. You could pour through the BIS data to see which banks hold the most worthless paper, but the Euro banking system is done...they can only print and keep printing.