patrick.net

tatupu70 says

errc says

name me one thing that ISN’T twice as expensive today as it was in 1999.

Are you kidding? I can’t think of anything that has doubled in 10 years. Other than gas maybe.

What about a 20 min phone call? I think that has gone up. :) I agree with you, I can't think of much that has increased in price over the past 10 years.

It doesn't matter. The segment I'm concerned with is the mid-high end in the bay area. No investors are going to buy in that segment, there's no way to make them cash flow positive. It's not even close.

Investors can buy all the low-end homes they want, I don't care, I'm not interested in those.

Massive dollar printing resumes...

CrazyMan says

It doesn’t matter. The segment I’m concerned with is the mid-high end in the bay area. No investors are going to buy in that segment, there’s no way to make them cash flow positive. It’s not even close.
Investors can buy all the low-end homes they want, I don’t care, I’m not interested in those.

It does matter and "Location Location" hasn't mattered in almost 10 years now.
Those hoitey toitey neighborhoods have foreclosed abandoned distressed properties just like all of the others. The up keep demand is still there, or the city fines the bank and the bank doesn't like that extra liability. The property just in state of being empty, drags the price on all other existing homes around them. The NAR doesn't like that nor does the neighbors. Cities lose taxes, politicians don't like that. Politically there must be a network, where houses can be scuttled at a great short term loss. That the banks make up for with math that shows long term savings. Yes there is these guys are the ones with cash on hand waiting for the banks phone calls to buy them up minutes after they hit the MLS list, if it makes it that far. People having Realtors that send them daily MLS feeds never see these houses. Or it very well may be that empty house you've been watching for months or years. And to your knowledge every one you know including you, have put offers on those houses, yet there it sat empty all of this time. Suddenly come into a new coat of paint, and a new for sale sign out front. They can afford to rent it out as long as it takes. It's not costing them any thing at this point. They own it out right, and cash isn't a problem. They've got hundreds of Scott Rothstein's out there finding suckers to invest money that in less than 7 degrees to Kevin Bacon, I'm sure ties back to funds used to secure these property. But to investigate Scott or Bernard, it's just lost and vanished Billions.

The weaker homes in every community is being sacrificed to save the long term value of the other existing properties.

I mean granted these aren't the best houses on the block.

Emoticons like :-) are supposed to convert to graphics on display. We shall see in this comment.

Underlining should be doable starting with <u> and ending with </u> like this

I didn't know editing a post will remove paragraph breaks. Have to try that out.

You definitely post a graphic in a reply.

Can't do too much about the Republicans except point out how they are being used by their billionaire masters for tax-evasion and Wall Street socialism. Not that I'm so fond of the Democrats either. Go Bull Moose!

Damn, emoticons definitely not working.

Underlining works though.

Tell me more -- I'll fix it all.

tatupu70 says

errc says

name me one thing that ISN’T twice as expensive today as it was in 1999.

Are you kidding? I can’t think of anything that has doubled in 10 years. Other than gas maybe.

oh, well i guess everything you purchase somehow decoupled from gas. where do you live? Gas has tripled here over the last 12 years. In the world i live in, everything everywhere revolves around petrol. oil has more then doubled(and thats with todays price where it has kinda leveled off).

Take a 20 dollar bill back to 1999 and buy a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, a bottle of water, a pack of chokes, a meal for one, send a letter with a stamp, make a phone call, go to the movies,,,,,

Now take that 20 dollar bill down 2009 avenue, and you can't even cover HALF that list. How about housing costs? ask patrick

>>Take a 20 dollar bill back to 1999 and buy a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, a bottle of water, a pack of chokes, a meal for one, send a letter with a stamp, make a phone call, go to the movies,,,,,

errc says

Take a 20 dollar bill back to 1999 and buy a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, a bottle of water, a pack of chokes, a meal for one, send a letter with a stamp, make a phone call, go to the movies,,,,,

OK, here's a site that shows some of the prices in 1999.

http://www.1990sflashback.com/1999/Economy.asp

As you can see, milk was $3.32 and stamps were $.33. So, stamps have increased $.11 and milk has remained about the same. Obviously no price doubling there... Gallon of gas has gone from $1.17 to ~2.80ish depending on where you live. No surprise there.

movie ticket prices can be found here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm
1999 ave. price was $5.08 and 2009 est ave. price is $7.18. Certainly not doubled.

I think you get the picture. Like I said--other than oil/gas, inflation hasn't been high over the last 10 years...

tatupu70,

I have done those kinds of analyses myself, ad naseum, to form an opinion about purchasing power. Looking at "stuff" and also discretionary expenses like flights, I got similar picture that you shared.

But that is not a complete picture. Please include, in your analysis, these expenses:

taxes, weighted to the tax jurisdictions where you live or spend;
medical expenses. This'd include the premiums you pay;
if you have kids or might have them, or if you plan to go back to school yourself- tuition;
(if you use it or plan to)- child care.

Then decide if the purchasing power of your dollars hasn't gone down all that much.

@sybrib--

I don't think taxes have increased in the last 10 years overall, but it is very situation dependent. But, I agree that child care and medical expenses have increased faster than inflation over the last decade. But there are also many expenses that haven't increased as fast as inflation. There will obviously be some higher than average, and some lower than average...

Quoting only those that increased faster and disregarding the others gives a distorted view.

staynumz says

Kevin says

Clearly, since it’s a french company making the vaccine, it’s a conspiracy by the french islamofascistliberalterrorists to take over the US and turn us all into gay french muslims.

The french do not have to help us with that. We already have the left in this country doing thier best to make men, less manly. Take you, for example. Just sayin.

Yea, numz. You appear less manly as a result of his posts... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/01/skokie-vaccinated-offers_n_375037.html http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/dpp/news/clayton_state_has_h1n1_vaccine_surplus_112409 http://blogs.journalism.wisc.edu/badgerreport/h1n1-vaccine-surplus http://cbs2.com/swineflu/Swine.Flu.Vaccine.2.1309346.html http://www.silobreaker.com/canadas-h1n1-vaccine-surplus-being-sent-abroad-5_2262716706797387818 http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/health&id=7119084 http://www.abc4.com/news/local/story/Thousands-line-up-for-H1N1-vaccine-in-Davis-County/hzo0RxEpv0-meZX6Bv2_-w.cspx

Nomograph says

none2 says

This is the most insane blog entry I’ve seen in a while.

Staynumz simply repeats what he heard on AM talk radio that day. He is not a man who thinks for himself.

thats odd, I felt that you and staynumz had similar arch-conservative ideas....along with BAP33...what gives? Have I mis-read your policy stances?

Nomograph says

Most people hold some beliefs that might be classified as conservative and some beliefs that might be classified as liberal. In other words, most folks aren’t married to an ideological stand.

Strictly speaking, does that mean that in some manner most people swing both ways? Ideologically, I mean...

tatupu70 says

Quoting only those that increased faster and disregarding the others gives a distorted view.

lol .. and THAT never happens here!! lmao. THought you'd laugh too.

Count me in.

You're a doctor, couldn't you make him your type? :)

Happiness and Family

great list
#10 is #1

1) even if he had ever been right, he was so offensive that no one listened to him.

2) imho, even tho prices did drop, they're still so far out of line with reality - and the foreclosures march on - that they'll drop again.

Anything under the FHA limit -- $729,750 -- will have buoyancy in these times.

3% down on $700K is $17,000, the government gift covers half of that, plus you can chisel closing cash from the seller in this buyer's market.

4.5% interest rates give us an actual monthly carrying cost of $2800.

That cash flows compared to rents so prices are NOT out of line at the moment.

Now, buying now is hazardous since if/when rates go back to 7% and stay there prices will have to adjust down to $500,000 or so.

Troy,

3% down on $700k is $21k.

FHA requires 3.5%...so it is $24.5 down, so the gov gift would closer to a third.

Also, I calculate $700k with $24.5k down @ 4.5% gives a monthly of $3424. Not sure where your numbers came from.

I agree that buying now is hazardous, just not with your math.

Speaking of people Long Gone but not forgotten, I wonder whatever happened to BearMarket... he was on the extreme other side of the spectrum, predicting 50% to 80% price drops, and extolling the virtues of Oil City, PA.

Prices may have stabilized, but how much of that is due to government intervention? When the stimulus stops then what... it's like a global game of musical chairs.... just be sure you not left standing when the music stops.

now that's funny!

There's no way you die as a bear and come back as a duck.

Bearmarket lost his virginity at the Oil City bus stop, then applied to Phoenix University.

Don't you love the people that can't think of anything that has increased in price? Off the top of my head, oil, nat gas, electrciity, sugar, chocolate, wheat, coffee, rice, gold, silver, copper, nickel, aluminum, coal, wood, train tickets, plane tickets, tolls, COLLEGE TUITION, HEALTH CARE.

elvis says

Our politicians are destroying the economy. They are hijacking private business and are stealing our money and our children’s future.

you're writing words but are expressing emotions, unsupportable falsehoods, and vague agit-prop ("Won't anyone think of the children!")

The economy has been imploding since NAFTA -- Perot was right. After transfering our manufacturing to our trading partners we're going to have to devalue our currency in response, since AFAICT making the balance of payments differential in services is a pipe dream.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM

The GUI and internet revolutions increased local productivity in the 90s, deferring the bill, but this decade should have been one of retrenchment, until the powers-that-be got the bright idea of blowing the mother of all asset bubbles in real estate (assuming the various policy changes and monetary policies were intentional and not just one big honking accident), ca 2002-2006.

Once that bubble souffled we're left in a situation somewhat like Japan, 1990. I'm no macroeconomist and I don't know anything -- "I don't have any solution but I certainly admire the problem" as Ashleigh Brilliant says.

Private business is screwed. We are living beyond our means. 5-10% of the population owns 50-60% of the wealth. Things are going to have to change and be changed: higher taxes, lower real estate prices and rents, more wealth creation and less rentierism.

Well, if I were King that's what I would push.

Troy says

Perot was right.

I voted for Ross.

Syncopation says

I calculate $700k with $24.5k down @ 4.5% gives a monthly of $3424. Not sure where your numbers came from.

I don't count principal repayment as part of the carrying cost, and the tax credit on the mortgage interest & prop tax is ~$1400/mo.

As for the DP discrepancy, that's the kickback from buying via eg. ziprealty.

Troy says

I don’t count principal repayment

Where are you getting your interest only loans these days?

"The price dropped almost $150/sq ft since then! It has since rebounded a slight bit, but the overall price went from $500 to $375 per square foot representing a 25% drop...Two points: (1) OTS was dead wrong; (2) prices appear to be rising."

LOL! I wonder if OTS ever figure out prices of homes ran around $125/sqft before the bubble per 1998, or median prices were $200-225K around the Bay Area. A single snap shot of 'market volatility' as Robert Shiller described the recent blip, is hardly a turn in the market. This is the 'catching the falling knife' phase of the bubble. Further declines are in order.

totallyscrewed123 says

Where are you getting your interest only loans these days?

principal repayment is a form of savings, so I don't count it as a carrying cost in my calculations.

This is assuming the appreciation of the land at least matches depreciation on the fixed asset plus deferred maintenance costs.

"was on the extreme other side of the spectrum, predicting 50% to 80% price drops"

yes some places have seen this already. Not so extreme after all. Somewhat right on the money.
Marco median home prices drop 62 percent in past year; biggest fall in Florida
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2009/feb/26/marco-island-median-home-price-falls-62-january-bi/

Florida FHFA Home Price Appreciation Tracker
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/Florida.html

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/Florida2.html

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/SoCal.html

The last correction lasted a very long time in SoCal 4+ years until it 'bottomed'..
currently SD is only 2.5 years into the decline. Quarter over quarter still declining.

All this plastic crap we're buying is actually consumer and (some) capital goods, a form of wealth. Unfortunately, this wealth is somewhat ephemeral in that its service life is generally measured in years not decades.

The Chinese are practicing labor arbitrage quite well, we don't live or work like Chinese laborers so their lower costs have enabled them to hollow out our light industry.

The Feds collectively owe $800B to the Chinese and $750B to the Japanese. Perhaps we can cover the debt by selling Alaska to China and Hawaii to Japan.

I don't know what's going on with Japan this century. They're in demographic decline and while very wealthy this wealth is cross-held against a massive government debt and deficit.

As for China, AFAICT we've got to see the yuan go to 4 or 3, this will cut that 100% profit margin on ducks down to size, but even so that adjustment will double the Chinese ability to compete for natural resources against the dollar and euro blocs, assuming the yuan becomes a third global currency.

I wonder if WW3 is in the cards. Not sure what we'd be fighting for but IMO much of the Cold War BS was actually a currency-bloc conflict, with Russia and the US proxy fighting to keep countries in their respective currency blocs.

The 19th century was the century of the Sterling, the 20th was the Dollar, perhaps the 21st will be the Yuan.

OFHEO is same-property (longitudinal), not median. Median just says how much buyers can afford, not what they're buying. OFHEO also doesn't count non-conforming, which changes the data somewhat.

Troy says

The GUI and internet revolutions increased local productivity in the 90s, deferring the bill, but this decade should have been one of retrenchment

I have been thinking about this too. Since the explosion of PCs and office automation, many of the business related jobs have become redundant. I expect the same thing to happen in the healthcare industry soon. We are losing manufacturing and business support jobs. This was temporarily filled by real-estate/finance related jobs but what is our future? I don't know if California survive as an idea economy like is has been claimed.

Also ... I wasn't paying attention during NAFTA debates ... and just assumed it allowed free trade within north America. Does it also impact trade between us and other emerging economies?

^ I think NAFTA got the ball rolling, and it rolled right over to Guangdong.

Troy says

^ I think NAFTA got the ball rolling,

Nah! in the SF Bay Area it started back in the late 80s. Much of the HW production moved to South East Asia and helped create 'Asian Tiger' nations to boom. Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan.

totallyscrewed123 says

he GUI and internet revolutions increased local productivity in the 90s, deferring the bill, but this decade should have been one of retrenchment

You give too little credit to the Mainframes which started back in the 60-70s. Not to mention explosion in Software, like ASK ManMan ERP, or the host of Email / Collaboration. Even back in the 80s we had chats and IMs ....Clunky but it was the same stuff you see today.

c:/*.* d:\data\file\*.* Look familiar

Past tense, we already lost our manufacturing/support many years ago.