patrick.net

robertoaribas says

after the crash… a bit presumptuous!!! No wonder nomorethinking… doesn’t like my data! He’s very likely to watch values plummet!!!

good one. When you resort to name calling, that usually means the facts aren't supporting your case...

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

So according to YOUR logic, when Goldman Sachs -for example- put together a portfolio of WORTHLESS mortgage derivatives which was MEANT to fail, yet at the same time RECOMMENDED that same portfolio to unwary investors as being AAA rated, NO FRAUDULENT FORECAST was committed. Funny, the SEC seems to disagree with you on that.

A recommendation isn't a forecast. UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

And when the U.S. government does it “thinking for me” by providing me with DOCTORED OFFICIAL stats for everything from GDP, to CPI and unemployment numberr, it’s actually NOT fraud either, it’s MY fault for not doing my own “due dilligence”.

I'd suggest wearing a tinfoil hat. The practice in your article wouldn't even affect the mainstream unemployment number at all. It would actually make it worse because these people would be filing for unemployment each time they were laid off, so the new filings number that everyone looks at would be worse. As to GDP or CPI, keep reading your shadowstats, if it makes you feel better...

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

tatupu70 says

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

So according to YOUR logic, when Goldman Sachs -for example- put together a portfolio of WORTHLESS mortgage derivatives which was MEANT to fail, yet at the same time RECOMMENDED that same portfolio to unwary investors as being AAA rated, NO FRAUDULENT FORECAST was committed. Funny, the SEC seems to disagree with you on that.

A recommendation isn’t a forecast. UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Noun 1. financial forecast - a forecast of the expected financial position and the results of operations and cash flows based on expected conditions forecast, prognosis - a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop

thank you for illustrating what I was saying.

Woah, people! O.K., his post was over-the-top, I will grant. But spare the histrionics about him mentioning Hitler. He said it's like the time when Hitler said Germany was winning the war when they were not. That was the extent of the analogy. He didn't say anyone WAS Hitler, or that they did any of the other things that Hitler was infamous for.

---------------------------------------------------------------
The fallacy of the Extended Analogy often occurs when some suggested general rule is being argued over. The fallacy is to assume that mentioning two different situations, in an argument about a general rule, constitutes a claim that those situations are analogous to each other.

Every time an analogy is used it is used to state that A is similar to B in a particular way. It does not (necessarily) insinuate that they are alike in any other way. However, often opponents will attempt to attribute your use of the analogy to extend it to something not analogous as proof of your lack of logic.
Examples

Here's real example from an online debate about anti-cryptography legislation:
"I believe it is always wrong to oppose the law by breaking it."
"Such a position is odious: it implies that you would not have supported Martin Luther King."
"Are you saying that cryptography legislation is as important as the struggle for Black liberation? How dare you!"

This is a "real estate bubble" forum. Shouldn't everyone say "yep. It is overvalued" instead "I just bought 2 investment houses"? The internet message board trolls are everywhere. Thus you will be a fool to believe everything you read here.

So I've save $200k for a down payment on a home. That buys a $1 mil house- not much in SF or Marin. While I've been looking (6 months) house prices have fallen. Not sure what the OP is looking at, but I'm looking at homes on my "favorites" list where the prices keep getting reduced. Usually, de-listed and then reduced.

I'm waiting and renting a nice house for 3k/month. Once a house that went for $1.4 goes for 800k, I'll buy. Right now those houses are at about 950.

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Try NOT to use NAR or government numbers, it’ll only make you look MORE stupid.

Bap33 says

We are all on the same page here

No, we're not. OTS is back. Or his brother.

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Try NOT to use NAR or government numbers, it’ll only make you look MORE stupid.

You do realize that all the articles you posted are commenting on government numbers, right? New home sales, existing home sales, etc. are put out by the commerce dept. which last I checked was part of the Federal Government. But it's OK to trust the numbers when they say what you want them to say, huh?

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

What you REALLY meant by your comment is that you want posters like me sidelined into a separate forum so that we don’t disturb your misconceptions of the FACTS.

Once again, I must reiterate that your style is boorish and you're late to the party. Your feined indignance is tedious, in that it appears that all you wish to do is attack anyone who disagrees with you. Just because you believe that repeatedly calling people stupid is a method of conversation, it doesn't make it so. You're hard to take, is all. Tone it down and say something without accusations and attacks, and perhaps you'll be taken seriously and responded to accordingly.

robertoaribas says

USSA: don’t confuse them with facts, they have their minds made up already! Even after prices resume the very likely downward trek, they will post long tortured explanations why:
1. their state is different.
2. Their state is dropping? well, their city is different.
3. Their city is dropping? well, not their part of the city, that part is different.
4. Well, their are some cheaper homes in their part of the city, but only ugly foreclosures, their home is not dropping, its going up!

Really? Wow, we must really be uneducated, unlike you. Thank godess you're here to save us all, 'cause you're so smart.

We must be reading different boards, because many, many people have posted that property values have dropped and the only question is whether they'll continue to do so, or whether the worst is over. Some feel one way, others the opposite.

USSR - why are you yelling at me? I thought you wanted to slip me the tongue.

Roberto -
We don't live in the Arizona area, which was devastated by the RE market and continues to lose ground. There are many areas that didn't have huge jumps in property values, and haven't experienced the losses that surround you.

There are other places in the country besides the big cities, you know...

At no point was I referring that you should be segregated from others in terms of conversation. But regardless if you venting, I was actually thinking about myself. I vent alot and am just trying to think of a solution to protect others from me. But sounds like you are saying you're like me.

thomas.wong1986 says

Thanks for pointing out that the phantom multiple bids charades are still practiced by REA. We wont be at any bottom until these REA practices are eliminated and made illegal.

Should we make it illegal for the car salesman to say that he has another interested party in the car you're looking at? How about the guy selling on craigslist saying that he has someone coming at 6pm to look at it?

tatupu70 says

Should we make it illegal for the car salesman to say that he has another interested party in the car you’re looking at? How about the guy selling on craigslist saying that he has someone coming at 6pm to look at it?

Lucky for the car buyer, you will never hear that from car salesman. Its first come first served.

I think it could be time to sell then for a swing trade...no ?

thomas.wong1986 says

Lucky for the car buyer, you will never hear that from car salesman. Its first come first served.

Not sure what you mean about first come, first served. I guess if you offer full sticker price, then he might be obligated to sell to you--I'm not sure about the rules on that. But if you are offering less than sticker, then the car dealer can always say that he has another customer interested and decline your offer. You can either raise your offer or walk away--just like you can with a house.

Makes sense that China and others would use gold and other hard assets to hedge their currency risk (especially dollar risk).

We are in such uncharted territory. The "crash course" that Patrick posted for today is pretty interesting, although I have yet to watch it in its entirety.

Nomograph says

They are well-located, relatively inexpensive, easy to rent, and a 3/2 SFH cosmetic fixer can be found in the high 3’s to low 4’s.

ok, thx. 2k per month is a reasonable rent price for clairemont 3/2. ok, maybe 2250... still, for purchase price of 400k, how does 2k per month in rent income equate unless you paid cash or substantial down payment? i'm seeing a loss or at least a razor-thin margin if holding an average mortgage. If paid up in full, is it true that "income" will not appear until the rent payments exceed what your initial investment was, plus any follow-on costs? maybe it's true that in X number of years you will be making profit, but right now, aren't you in the hole for a great deal of money? are you at all concerned that if a price adjustment occurs in the next year, that rent will decrease or that renters will simply buy another property for the same, or less, monthly payment? worst case, if you were to sell the property under those conditions, that you would take a significant loss?

also, i truly don't care what any of you do with your money - i'm just interested in the theory/strategy behind the moves. i would REALLY like to know about the risk mitigations...

landtof If 100% cash paid. 24k in annual rent vs. 400K house is about 6% yield. Less property tax, insurance and maintenance, the net yield is closer to 4%. Then there is the benefit of cash flow through tax deferral of depreciation and ability to pretax expense. An equilvalent investment may need to return 6% to be comparable from a cash flow perspective. With an average mortgage, it depends on interest rate. A 320K mortgage @4.625%, interest, tax and insurance is around 1800, with tax benefits, ITI may be as low as 1400. that's a 7200 return on 80000 investment, A ROI of 9%. Leverage increase margins. It really depends on a lot of other factors including tax bracket, AGI, and other passive income. If paid in full. Income will be net rent less interest, tax, insurance and deduction, direct expense and the non cash expense like depreciation. With investment properties, you do want to account for a margin of safety but rents are pretty stable. For the most part, the best yields are also the worst place so I don't overweigh yields. When I read financial statements of a REIT, I start with cash flow, balance sheet than income/loss. Cash flow in rental property is the key metric. Most renters are renters because majority of them are check to check and are really stuck. If they can get a loan, they will surely buy in this environment. The big drawback is housing is not very liquid currently. It is hard to undo a transaction. That is essentially why most people put down as little as possible to secure the best rates. If you invest for cash flow, the capital will take care of itself. As rob points out there are risks involved and that is why it is not a good idea to go "all in", but there are plenty of rewards as well.

SF ace says

If 100% cash paid. 24k in annual rent vs. 400K house is about 6% yield. Less property tax, insurance and maintenance, the net yield is closer to 4%. Then there is the benefit of cash flow through tax deferral of depreciation and ability to pretax expense. An equilvalent investment may need to return 6% to be comparable from a cash flow perspective. With an average mortgage, it depends on interest rate. A 320K mortgage @4.625%, interest, tax and insurance is around 1800, with tax benefits, ITI may be as low as 1400. that’s a 7200 return on 80000 investment, A ROI of 9%. Leverage increase margins. It really depends on a lot of other factors including tax bracket, AGI, and other passive income.

you're basing almost every positive on tax benefits. need to investigate further. at face value, the perspective doesn't entice on it's own (without the tax code loopholes), and still appears to leave little room for error, like a major price adjustment. SF ace says violently disagree that renters of 3/2 homes in decent neighborhoods are stuck.

Most renters are renters because majority of them are check to check and are really stuck

More mice taking the bait. Tax credits and false consumer confidence. We will see how the story holds up next month.

I always like to see three data points before I call a trend.

I agree---there will be a few months of weak housing numbers. The government $8K certainly pulled ahead some demand. The question is really--what will happen 6 months from now?

I think the answer to that depends on what other government actions are put in place to prop the market up further. Without additional incentives or delaying tactics the trend should be clear.

tatupu70 says

thomas.wong1986 says

Lucky for the car buyer, you will never hear that from car salesman. Its first come first served.

Not sure what you mean about first come, first served [. . .] if you are offering less than sticker, then the car dealer can always say that he has another customer interested and decline your offer. You can either raise your offer or walk away–just like you can with a house.

Actually, cars are not like houses in this scenario. There's always 5 more Dodge Watermelons in Sensible Silver coming on the trailer tomorrow, so bidding wars do not happen on a dealer lot. You can't have bidding wars on an item that is mass produced and instantly available in multiple quantities. A dealership'll take any reasonable offer, and usually pad the backend on the payments and financing to make up the differeance--not to mentinon screwing you on the trade-in for good measure. Believe me, car salesmen *are* first come, first served, as they are trained not to let you off the lot without buying. Like used-home salesmen, car salesmen have their own tricks and games, but bidding wars is not one of them. Tenouncetrout says

There was big Tropical landscape culture here, with old growth. It was for a reason many of these houses were built before Air conditioning, so the Royal Poinciana, Black Olive Trees, Boogan Villa on the side of the house, and general Yard and Roof Canopy kept these houses cool in the summer. Probably lost now, is land scape crews that were custom to Sofl local plants, and knew how to care for them. For ten years the way they’ve dealt with them was with a chain saw and wood chipper.

TPB, I am a native Floridian and this makes me teary for a Land Remembered. Don't forget some of the worlds most beautiful beaches from St. Petersburg up to Mobile, AL that are also going to be lost--in Pensacola, the sand would squeak when you walked on it, so powdery fine it was. I've been looking at moving back to south or central Florida, but the scenario you describe is what I see getting worse and worse every year I visit friends back there. The houses get cheaper both in price and "remodels". Many of my favorite neighborhoods have lost their character.

tatupu70 says

The question is really–what will happen 6 months from now?

The next leg down will become even more obvious?

Interesting article about many buyers being unable to close in time to get the credit. I don't think this will result in a waive of cancellations because unless the buyers included a contingency in their contract in that they would only close if they got the tax credit, they will lose their deposit if they walk.

http://www.northjersey.com/realestate/97366859_It_s_crunch_time_to_qualify_for_tax_credit.html

inflection point says

More mice taking the bait. Tax credits and false consumer confidence. We will see how the story holds up next month.

Keep in mind C/S is 3 month smoothed, so "April" numbers reflect sales in feb/march/april. If there is a double dip due to expiring tax credit + expiring Fed purchase of MBS, it will not show in full until the July report, which will reflect sales in may/june/july.

There clearly was a "pull-forward" of demand effect of the tax credit, given how sales plunged after April, so it would surprise me if the upward trend holds in the overall C/S index. But if the overall index does go to a new low, I doubt it will be a whole lot lower.

What I find most interesting is the disconnect between the different market segments. Prebubble they tracked each other well. Post bubble more expensive market segments are still being stubborn, with about a 25% disconnect.

San Francisco is up big time showing a 2.2% gain between March and April and increasing the one year gain to 18%.

Again, C-S's own non-adjusted numbers don't show that.

Low Tier is up 12% YOY and down 1% YTD, and down .3% for the month.
Middle Tier is up 11% YOY and even YTD, and up 1.1% for the month.
High Tier is up 10.7% YOY and up 2.6% YTD, up 2.5% for the month.

SF's "big time" gain is only evident in the upper tier, which currently starts at $600,000.

Philistine says

Actually, cars are not like houses in this scenario. There’s always 5 more Dodge Watermelons in Sensible Silver coming on the trailer tomorrow, so bidding wars do not happen on a dealer lot. You can’t have bidding wars on an item that is mass produced and instantly available in multiple quantities

In most cases I agree, but keep in mind there are many new car models that sell for over list price. Dealers add a surcharge because they are in high demand. In any event, it was a mediocre analogy at best, just meant to show that real estate agents behave exactly like other salespeople...

Tenouncetrout says

.... I guess I’m saying the Charm and local identity sold South Florida. Charm that took years of cultivation to achieve. It’s gone, people are more emotionally detached from probably not just my town, but I suspect most towns, that have gone through the bubble cycle.

tenouncetrout, That's the same things I see too. City people are detached. This includes Americans in general more and more with respect to the USA. Sure, momentum keeps them in place but uprooting takes a long time. I'll go out on a limb here and extend my Silicon Valley is Detroit hypothesis to USA is Detroit. If you think about what happened to Detroit then you'll be able to apply it to the USA. I haven't done the macro analysis of these theories but common sense tells me its true. Sure, some people still do very well in Detroit. A very important theme of this thread is cheer leaders who are wrong. The LV RE agent was. The "cheerful" leaders who say "print more money, spend our way to happiness" are. And people who thing the USA is not Detroit are probably wrong too. The reality I see from the people I know is the USA will not survive a few more years of this recession/whatever its called. In my neighborhood at least, prices fell and now look to start to accelerate downward. I heard of one house which was $264K and just taken back by the bank for $104K. Nobody is waiting in line to buy it. In contrast, a house which was $220K was listed on res.net for $150K and looks like it did sell 4-5 months ago. So, I guess we won't know until Nov timeframe. My hunch, however, and what the elders tell me is now is the time to store. Not buy.

landtof says

you’re basing almost every positive on tax benefits.

Tax laws change at the whim of Congress. If anything decisions are left without tax impact.

Philistine says

A dealership’ll take any reasonable offer, and usually pad the backend on the payments and financing to make up the differeance–not to mentinon screwing you on the trade-in for good measure. Believe me, car salesmen *are* first come, first served, as they are trained not to let you off the lot without buying. Like used-home salesmen, car salesmen have their own tricks and games, but bidding wars is not one of them.

Dittio! tatupu70 says

In most cases I agree, but keep in mind there are many new car models that sell for over list price. Dealers add a surcharge because they are in high demand. In any event, it was a mediocre analogy at best, just meant to show that real estate agents behave exactly like other salespeople…

A new car has already been marked up for the authorized dealer by the factory. They buy at 15-17K, which you dont see, and sell it at list price 20K. The additional "marketing" surcharges mean very little. New cars purchases are often ordered weeks ahead and not delivered off lot inventory, and therefore any surcharges disappear. No, we been down this road before, REA do NOT behave like other salespeople. Far from it.

maxweber says

I’ll go out on a limb here and extend my Silicon Valley is Detroit hypothesis to USA is Detroit. If you think about what happened to Detroit then you’ll be able to apply it to the USA. I haven’t done the macro analysis of these theories but common sense tells me its true. Sure, some people still do very well in Detroit

You can ask Silicon Valley maverick Oracle founder Larry Ellison and he would agree with you. Dwindling public companies means big changes in the valley http://www.siliconvalley.com/ci_12110548?source=rss_emailed&nclick_check=1 Tucked into the annual Mercury News data-palooza known as the Silicon Valley 150, there's one nugget of information that I think tells us more than all the other lists and numbers about the profound changes in store for this region: The number of public companies in Silicon Valley fell for the eighth consecutive year in 2008, to 261. Forget the inflated dot-com peak of 417 in 2000. It's also below the 315 the valley had in 1994, when the Mercury News started keeping track. This is no longer a simple correction following a period of excess. This is now an unmistakable trend that represents the end of an era defined by a grand partnership between Silicon Valley and Wall Street. That alliance fueled a model for funding innovation that became the envy of the world. And now we have to come up with a new one. Why is this happening? There are several factors at work. The technology industry is maturing, much as Oracle CEO Larry Ellison foresaw several years ago, and that means slower growth rates. To find new sources of revenue, Oracle and many others have gone on acquisition binges, taking numerous ...

LOL! plenty of people "smoking medicine" in SF.

thomas.wong1986 says

A new car has already been marked up for the authorized dealer by the factory. They buy at 15-17K, which you dont see, and sell it at list price 20K. The additional “marketing” surcharges mean very little. New cars purchases are often ordered weeks ahead and not delivered off lot inventory, and therefore any surcharges disappear.

OK--we are headed way off topic here and running quickly into the realm of idiocy, but you completely missed the point of my post. There are cars that are marked up over and above factory markups because they are "hot". Usually new models. RE agents are salespeople. Caveat Emptor. If you let them fool you, shame on you.

http://waysandmeans.house.gov/media/pdf/111/UI_Impact_Chart.pdf

San Fran up 16% last month 18% this month..

I'd like to hears the bears explanation for this.
I suppose it's all due to the tax credit?

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

What do you want data for?
Every time I post reference links you and your buddy Numbograph choose to completely IGNORE them and prefer to move on to ANOTHER topic. Which is why I think it was VERY apropo for you to choose a SILLY GOOSE as your icon.
PS: Munch on THIS awhile MF: 14 Scary Facts About The The US Real Estate Nightmare

A link to an opinion piece is NOT data. (note I capitalized that because I know you like that)