patrick.net

I have a coworker that bought in 2005 and is DEEPLY in debt and underwater by -60%. He's plans to hold onto it hoping we'll see a recover. He does not even look at the housing articles that I send to him because he thinks it's a waste of time to do any research. lol Idiots like him is what contributed to the housing boom.

MarkInSF says

Higher wages = more demand = higher prices.

That I'll agree with.

"when will housing return to 2005-06 levels?"

dude, PUT DOWN THE BONG.... :-)

2 things I see happening over the next 2-3 years.

recession ends and more high tech companies hiring
pent up housing demand coming off the sidelines

I dont think these are even debatable. They will happen
and will cause RE to go up.
So if you need to sell you might want to at least see how these
events play out and effect the housing market.

permanent_marker says

“when will housing return to 2005-06 levels?”
dude, PUT DOWN THE BONG….

Aww, but c'mon. They aren't making any more land. Prices only go up over time. The income tax breaks are totally worth it. Your home mortgage is like an automatic savings plan. You don't even need to put any other money toward retirement. All you need is a home, because prices go up forever.

MarkInSF says

He never made a firm commitment that you can hold him to. He’s a politician. What do you expect?

I guess he was just being a "politician" when he promised "Hope & Change" too. LOL !!

Where does he ever find the time to govern, with all of these lips firmly attached to his buttocks?
I bet he has a wet walk.

And I'd say to anyone throwing out his laundry list of Shove down/Pushed through legislation.
Historians are rarely kind to those administration.

> I guess he was just being a “politician” when he promised “Hope & Change” too. LOL !

Giggles, when you write it you have to change "LOL" to "GOL"

tatupu70 says

Well Ray, I did listen to your videos and not surprisingly I interpret them differently than you do.

Really? I'm absolutely stunned. Shocked. Who would have ever thought you would have an interpretation different from mine?

tatapu ..... I'll bet you stuggle with the definition of the word "is" too.

tatupu70 says

This made me laugh. First you say “he has little to say”. Then in the next sentence you say “Much talk…”

So which is it?

I was expecting Obama to tell us of his Naval coordinated efforts, with NOAH the Army Corp of engineers and the EPA. Instead of letting investors and wall street for corporations of foreign countries having carte blanche un impeaded or intevention for 3 months. Progress just started happening when BP was forced to take out side help, it happened in a week. That how long this should have taken from the get go.

Not that I'm defending Bush, but if Bush allowed some Saudi country the same liberties Obama gave BP through out this whole affair. Most people here in America, Republicans to, would have called Shenanigans. Shame on you Libbies you're all "Racist" more so than the Tea Party and this really proves it. Oh the Horsey faced Brits can run Roughshod over the American peoples heads, and it's O.K. but any one else you guys would be the first to parlay this whole mess into the "Foreign dependency" cry, and use it further politicize the Green con.

You guys are giving this administration, not just Obama but the Administration as whole way to much lead way and a free pass.

Much like the Republicans were blind to Bush's faults and fraud. I was a rare minority when Bush first started his shit, every one was all Red and ready to kill some Terrorist and bomb desert villages where ever they were. Just as long as it made good copy and television.

Sure the Dems snapped out of it, after Bush's first 4 years but you were all right there all the way to Felusia to the Tigress river in Iraq. The Republicans never gave up on Bush, no matter how rotten he lead. Well he lead by greed, he actually pretty damn good at leading the way he wanted to. That's more credit than I can give Obama. As bad as I hated Bush he was successful at fulfilling his mission. Nothing was crammed or pushed, it was a Democrat Washington that made his most disastrous policies possible.

So please this is me, cut the crap...

Obama delivers great Monolgues little else. He throws the crap on the wall and he hopes it sticks or Washington will make it so. That is hardly a good leader.

RayAmerica says

tatapu ….. I’ll bet you stuggle with the definition of the word “is” too.

Huh? What exactly are you trying to say there?

How about this. Post a quote from Obama that you think shows him as a liar. Not a link to a video. An actual quote.

tatupu70 says

How about this. Post a quote from Obama that you think shows him as a liar. Not a link to a video. An actual quote.

I'll get back to you as soon as I have a couple of hours to kill. Thanks.

Based on Patrick's most current blog it seems unlikely that home prices will go back to the same levels as you paid in 2005. It seems more likely that in about 10 to 15 years your home will regain its value. If you can afford to hold onto it for that long maybe you should. However, remember that the owner has to pay for repairs or plumbing problems and the renter will demand these things.

simchaland says

I've been thinking more this lately seeing that I'm about to willingly go into a Market that I know still has some skin to shed. At the Rate I'm paying and certainly about 60% less than peak.
Peak price was $450 for the house I'm buying now for $170. I expect it to go down some, and wouldn't be surprised if $120 becomes a reality that would be well into Early 90's value. For the house I'm buying.

For me at 4.50% rate, and a smaller Principal, and makes sense to pay off as much principal as quickly as possible, and pay even less in interest. Pay it off in 7 to 10 years. And end up paying 225K in total rather than

2200 a month
Dec-1-2019 Cumulative Totals: $210,653.54 $40,653.54 $170,000.00

Or just paying 1200 a month.
Dec-1-2040 Cumulative Totals: $319,248.17 $149,248.17 $170,000.00

That's a 100K savings, so it will be that much less I'll have in the place.

Even with out the extra 1K a month to build equity, my monthly nut would be no less than a homeowner buying at 120K with a healthy sustainable realistic interest rate.

here's a 120K mortgage at 7.75% a more realistic sustainable interest rate

Cumulative Totals: $309,490.09 $189,490.09 $120,000.00

Even paying 50K more right now, I'll be paying the same.

"There will not be abortion funded in this health bill"

Nomograph says

RayAmerica says

I’ll get back to you as soon as I have a couple of hours to kill.

Like every other AM talk radio junkie, all you seem to have is empty anger- and hatred-based arguments.
Book recommendation — “The Thinker’s Guide to Fallacies: The Art of Mental Trickery” by Richard Paul. I highly recommend you turn off the AM talk radio and learn something about critical thinking.

He can only read it if he puts down his magazine... Not likely to happen...

DickCheney says

I have a coworker that bought in 2005 and is DEEPLY in debt and underwater by -60%. He’s plans to hold onto it hoping we’ll see a recover. He does not even look at the housing articles that I send to him because he thinks it’s a waste of time to do any research. lol Idiots like him is what contributed to the housing boom.

They think it's a sort of temporary malaise that will pass by. A few years ago, that was cute. Now, it's pathetic.

Looking back to 2007, I heard this a few times: "I'm going to take my house off the market and sell next year when this buyer's market is over and things get back to normal"

rentalinvestor says

So far we haven’t applied for any investor loans. I hear you need around 30%.

LOL thats why I can't play this game, I got no seed money, especially after I lose my a$$ on my house I am selling. I am thinking of buying a duplex next, then at least I can get some rental income to help pay the mortgage. rentalinvestor, what is the rent to price ratio you use to evaluate an income property purchase? Is it 10X rent?

Nomograph says

AM talk radio junkie, all you seem to have is empty anger- and hatred-based arguments.

I can't think of a more perfect definition of ellie "I never, ever insult anyone" mae. Apparently she listens to lots and lots of talk radio.

permanent_marker says

“when will housing return to 2005-06 levels?”

When someone invents a Time Machine to travel back to 2005.

moneypitt says

It’s in bad neighborhood around north San Jose. Bought for $800K

Why would anybody pay $800k for a house in a bad neighborhood?

RayAmerica says

permanent_marker says

“when will housing return to 2005-06 levels?”

When someone invents a Time Machine to travel back to 2005.

LOL aint that the truth.

Sorry to say for the bubble buyers, you'll probably retire before prices go that high again. Better off focusing on paying the thing off. At least that's a realistic goal.

klarek says

moneypitt says
It’s in bad neighborhood around north San Jose. Bought for $800K
Why would anybody pay $800k for a house in a bad neighborhood?

Why would anyone pay $800K in SJ at all, unless your talking about Silver Creek?
Thats about what prices in SC will come down to.

Property History for 5285 APENNINES Cir
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
May 22, 2010 Listed $1,088,000 -- MLSListings #81025498
Mar 17, 1998 Sold (Public Records) $545,000 14.2%/yr Public Records
Apr 30, 1997 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 12.5%/yr Public Records
Jul 10, 1996 Sold (Public Records) $441,000 13.7%/yr Public Records
Jul 26, 1995 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 -- Public Records

Property History for 5379 LIGURIAN Dr
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Feb 28, 2010 Listed $1,388,000 -- MLSListings #81009314
Aug 09, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $1,425,000 14.4%/yr Public Records
Jul 13, 2006 Delisted * -- Inactive MLSListings #1
Jul 08, 2006 Price Changed * -- Inactive MLSListings #1
Jun 26, 2006 Listed * -- Inactive MLSListings #1
Jul 15, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $1,080,000 11.1%/yr Public Records
Jun 18, 2004 Delisted -- -- Inactive MLSListings #80393463
Apr 28, 2004 Listed ** -- Inactive MLSListings #80393463
Apr 17, 1996 Sold (Public Records) 455,000 -- Public Records

the bad parts of San Jose will take a while to go back up.
Especially if the only people buying are investors prices will be strictly tied to rental income.
Eventually prices will go up along with rents.

Go back UP to what ?????

Rents/Job ?????

Vanishing Public Companies Lead To The Incredible Shrinking Silicon Valley

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2010/02/17/vanishing-public-companies-lead-to-the-incredible-shrinking-silicon-valley/

One of the most significant trends I’ve been watching over the past decade is the dramatic drop in public companies in Silicon Valley. Naturally, that number was artificially inflated during the dot-com bubble when it reached 417 in 2000. For our purposes, Silicon Valley includes San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and the southern half of Alameda County.

But the number of public companies has dropped for nine straight years now. Even when IPOs briefly reappeared in 2006 and 2007, they weren’t enough to overcome the net loss of public companies through acquisitions or bankruptcy.

In 2008, the number had fallen to 261. We just updated our records and the latest figure is 241.

That’s not just less than the dot-com era, that’s well below the 315 public companies the valley had in 1994 when the Mercury News started keeping track.

Companies go public to sell themselves off, or to bring in cash. Since this isn't a great time for IPO's, they're not setting themselves up to do this. Once a company goes public, it has a huge liability on it's hands. It's an accounting and legal nightmare to keep a public company going.

companies vs companies or
new private companies vs new private companies or
venture capital spending vs venture capital spending

Those might give you a better idea of what is happening. I'm not saying that public companies isn't a good indicator, but in an economy like we have now, it's better to buy a known brick and mortar company than an upcoming company that may or may not make it.

pkennedy says

Once a company goes public, it has a huge liability on it’s hands. It’s an accounting and legal nightmare to keep a public company going.

Rubish! I done three public offerings. What you have today are chicken shit retarded MBA types who rushed into the valley over the past 10 years and dont know squat how to run public or private companies. You have old times like Andy Grove from Intel saying the same. Liability is the same both private or public. Shareholder can be the public or private placement, its the same.

The crux is we are back to mid 90s type economy rather than peak at 2000.

tatupu70 says

How about this. Post a quote from Obama that you think shows him as a liar. Not a link to a video. An actual quote.

I sincerely feel the need to apologize. I originally thought it would take, as I said, “a couple of hours” to document a list (along with links) of Obama’s lies. It actually only took about 5 minutes. Please accept my apology. If you’d like more, I probably can provide it when I have more time to kill. Enjoy.

http://obamalies.net/list-of-lies

So how about using those other numbers? If they're useless like you just said at getting companies public, then... you're numbers wouldn't be a good indicator, would it?

Thomas--

You have to admit that it's more expensive to run a public company at least, correct? And expensive to go public?

Pkennedy is correct that in this environment (last 2 years) many companies have held off going public.

Ray--

Again. Did you read that list? Here is one example:

"I will not rest until the BP Oil Spill stops"

Don't you agree that calling that a LIE is a bit of a stretch? I find it a bit ridiculous...

Here's another:

"I got the message from Massachussets"

How do you call that a lie?? Really, that's the best you (this stupid site) can come up with?

I could keep going with the stupidity but I think you get the point. Come up with a real lie, then get back to me.

Ok, I had to click on the link.

What a joke.

This is a list of useless one line quotes that has been put together. Things such as "There are no more places to drill oil"?? Well there aren't. We can drill in the same fields we're currently drilling in, but there aren't new ones. Brazil had the last large find. But if you change it to an absolute sentence and remove any logical thinking, I could see how an uneducated person might get confused and tricked into believing this word for word.

Bring the troops home? Bush had no plans. The military had no plans. He said he would bring the troops home, but that doesn't mean he would put them on the next flight out and get them home. It meant he would get out of there in a timely manner, and put into position a way for them to exit those countries as quickly as possible. Do you really think any educated person would say "We'll have them on the next flight out"? No. No one said that.

The uneducated are the only ones being fooled by these sites, and it's unfortunate.

tatapu ... pk ....

Feb 26, 2008 Democratic Debate in Cleveland:

OBAMA: No, there is a difference. I do provide a mandate for children, because we have created programs in which we can have greater assurance that those children will be covered at an affordable price. BUT WE DON’T WANT TO PUT ADULTS IN A SITUATION IN WHICH, ON THE FRONT END, WE ARE MANDATING THEM, WE ARE FORCING THEM TO PURCHASE INSURANCE, AND IF THE SUBSIDIES ARE INADEQUATE, THE BURDEN IS ON THEM, AND THEY WILL BE PENALIZED. And that is what Sen. Clinton’s plan does.

Obama Lies about 5 days to Review Healthcare Bill

Obama Lied about giving the public 5 days to look at the health care bill before signing it.

Moving to a different point, how about the lack of effective policy response to unemployment? He's not doing so good on that issue, number 1 issue in my mind. This from Robert Reich in the Business Insider:

We’re not in a double-dip recession yet. We’re in a one and a half dip recession.

Consumer confidence is down. Retail sales are down. Home sales are down. Permits for single-family starts are down. The average work week is down. The only things not down are inventories – unsold stuff is piling up in warehouses and inventories of unsold homes are rising – and defaults on loans.

The 1.5 dip recession should be causing alarm bells to ring all over official Washington. It should cause deficit hawks to stop squawking about future debt, blue-dog Democrats to stop acting like Republicans, and mainstream Democrats to get some backbone.

The 1.5 dip recession should cause the President to demand a large-scale national jobs program including a new WPA that gets millions of Americans back to work even if government has to pay their wages directly. Included would be zero-interest loans to strapped states and locales, so they didn’t have to cut vital services and raise taxes. They could repay when the economy picked up and revenues came in. The national jobs program would also include a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of income.

The President should stop talking and acting on anything else – not the deficit, not energy, not the environment, not immigration, not implementing the health care law, not education. He should make the whole upcoming mid-term election a national referendum on putting Americans back to work, and his jobs bill. Are you for it or against it?

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/lets-call-it-a-one-and-a-half-dip-recession-2010-7#ixzz0uRqGrnEe

January 24, 2008

Barack Obama claimed he "barely knew" Toney Rezko.

Having a hard time keeping track of the facts? Here are eight things to know:

1. They met in 1990. Obama was a student at Harvard Law School and got an unsolicited job offer from Rezko, then a low-income housing developer in Chicago. Obama turned it down.

2. Obama took a job in 1993 with a small Chicago law firm, Davis Miner Barnhill, that represents developers -- primarily not-for-profit groups -- building low-income housing with government funds.

3. One of the firm's not-for-profit clients -- the Woodlawn Preservation and Investment Corp., co-founded by Obama's then-boss Allison Davis -- was partners with Rezko's company in a 1995 deal to convert an abandoned nursing home at 61st and Drexel into low-income apartments. Altogether, Obama spent 32 hours on the project, according to the firm. Only five hours of that came after Rezko and WPIC became partners, the firm says. The rest of the future senator's time was helping WPIC strike the deal with Rezko. Rezko's company, Rezmar Corp., also partnered with the firm's clients in four later deals -- none of which involved Obama, according to the firm. In each deal, Rezmar "made the decisions for the joint venture," says William Miceli, an attorney with the firm.

4. In 1995, Obama began campaigning for a seat in the Illinois Senate. Among his earliest supporters: Rezko. Two Rezko companies donated a total of $2,000. Obama was elected in 1996 -- representing a district that included 11 of Rezko's 30 low-income housing projects.

5. Rezko's low-income housing empire began crumbling in 2001, when his company stopped making mortgage payments on the old nursing home that had been converted into apartments. The state foreclosed on the building -- which was in Obama's Illinois Senate district.

6. In 2003, Obama announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and Rezko -- a member of his campaign finance committee -- held a lavish fund-raiser June 27, 2003, at his Wilmette mansion.

7. A few months after Obama became a U.S. senator, he and Rezko's wife, Rita, bought adjacent pieces of property from a doctor in Chicago's Kenwood neighborhood -- a deal that has dogged Obama the last two years. The doctor sold the mansion to Obama for $1.65 million -- $300,000 below the asking price. Rezko's wife paid full price -- $625,000 -- for the adjacent vacant lot. The deals closed in June 2005. Six months later, Obama paid Rezko's wife $104,500 for a strip of her land, so he could have a bigger yard. At the time, it had been widely reported that Tony Rezko was under federal investigation. Questioned later about the timing of the Rezko deal, Obama called it "boneheaded" because people might think the Rezkos had done him a favor.

8. Eight months later -- in October 2006 -- Rezko was indicted on charges he solicited kickbacks from companies seeking state pension business under his friend Gov. Blagojevich. Federal prosecutors maintain that $10,000 from the alleged kickback scheme was donated to Obama's run for the U.S. Senate. Obama has given the money to charity.

cdw7503 says

If you think housing prices will be coming back to 06′ levels then you are living in a dream world. The housing boom which caused the high prices happened because of extremely loose loan underwriting standards and foolish borrowers who took loans out they couldn’t pay. Borrowers are still foolish, but underwriting standards are now at the opposite extreme.

I agree housing prices will not go back to the previously unthinkable highs of the first half of this decade, but I dislike all the talk about foolish borrowers. Where is the accountability of the banking industry, they are the ones who essentially offered a hang mans rope to people who couldn't afford the homes that they bought and now all I hear about are these dumb borrowers. The banking system is to blame for the housing crash not the people. They have come up with cleaver ways to tempt buyers into buying home they couldn't pay for, look at the alt-a mortgages and the ARM that are about to reset. In the places that been hit the worst you might be looking at 6-10 years before prices go to a place where owners can make money on RE again.

RayAmerica says

Feb 26, 2008 Democratic Debate in Cleveland:
OBAMA: No, there is a difference. I do provide a mandate for children, because we have created programs in which we can have greater assurance that those children will be covered at an affordable price. BUT WE DON’T WANT TO PUT ADULTS IN A SITUATION IN WHICH, ON THE FRONT END, WE ARE MANDATING THEM, WE ARE FORCING THEM TO PURCHASE INSURANCE, AND IF THE SUBSIDIES ARE INADEQUATE, THE BURDEN IS ON THEM, AND THEY WILL BE PENALIZED. And that is what Sen. Clinton’s plan does.

I'll remind you that the healthcare plan that finally passed Congress was VASTLY different than the plan Obama proposed during his Presidential run. Not because he wanted things different, but because idiots in Congress were bought and paid for by the healthcare industry.

So your quote can't be compared to the actual healthcare bill that passed as you are trying to do...

Moving to a different point, how about the lack of effective policy response to unemployment?

what can he do that isn't teh socialism? Other than cut taxes, which didn't work so good 2001-2008 of course.

The core problem of the economy is that the lower four and a half quintiles used the Home ATM to boost consumption 2004-2006.

Here's a pretty graph that I'm proud of:

Non-wealthy people are stuck with a $4T debt overhang from that bubble still.

There are no easy answers. Dismantling the Federal Government appeals to some people, but to paraphrase President Eisenhower, these people are idiots.

We could cut the Federal governement spending in half, down to $1.8T (what Clinton passed to Bush, btw), but $1.8T isn't just being consumed in a fire, that's millions of paychecks involved, either directly or indirectly.

$1.8T is twenty million jobs at $90,000 per, so the actual footprint is more like forty or fifty million given the median salary and the velocity of money multiplier. So large that I really can't comprehend the scale of this.

We're not in Kansas any more.