patrick.net

There is something going on behind the scenes no doubt to benefit the banks. This is not the free market at work.

>>The number of new homes on the market dropped 1.4 percent to 210,000 units, the lowest level since September 1968.

This is a very misleading number. What is the number of UNSOLD new houses, as opposed to "on-the-market" new houses?
Shadow inventory, as Nomo said.

>>Last month’s surge in sales saw the supply of new homes available for sale dropping to 7.6 months’ worth from 9.6 months worth in May.

Apparently, 7.6 months of unsold inventory is NOT a 42-year low. Well, imagine that. Someone in the press is highlighting the sensational statistic but not the other one.

justme says

You can count on the Mish blog to have a good analysis of new data, and here it is:

If by good, you actually mean extremely biased--then I'll agree with you.

tatupu70 says

justme says

You can count on the Mish blog to have a good analysis of new data, and here it is:

If by good, you actually mean extremely biased–then I’ll agree with you.

Correction, the article was from Calculated Risk, not Mish blog. Mish can be biased, especially against public unions, which seem to bug him severely. CR is very analytic and data-driven and calls the shots well, in my opinion.

Keep watching and thinking and talking about housing it's called fighting the last war... Move on ..

tatupu70 says

You guys crack me up. If anyone has the unmitigated gall to think that housing may be finished correcting, you accuse him of being: realtor, troll, Lawrence Yun, etc.

That's because the freefall in prices stopped right when the tax credit was activated. Either you can see the correlation and determine that it's too early to say the market bottomed or you're a realtard.

tatupu70 says

It’s OK to poke holes in his logic, but in my experience, people who are unwilling to listen to opposing viewpoints are usually incorrect….

I listen to his viewpoints, and notice that he does his best to not acknowledge those of others'.

His point about the inventory would have merit in a universe where things such as the tax credit, shadow inventory, and record-low interest rates didn't exist.

"You guys crack me up. If anyone has the unmitigated gall to think that housing may be finished correcting, you accuse him of being: realtor, troll, Lawrence Yun, etc. "

+1

klarek says

That’s because the freefall in prices stopped right when the tax credit was activated. Either you can see the correlation and determine that it’s too early to say the market bottomed or you’re a realtard.

Of course. That was the point of the credit. How does that mean that prices will fall from here out though?

klarek says

His point about the inventory would have merit in a universe where things such as the tax credit, shadow inventory, and record-low interest rates didn’t exist.

The credit is over. I've been hearing about shadow inventory for 2 years now. It's like the boogeyman that housing bears keep hidden in their closet. Why wouldn't banks have put this shadow inventory on the market over the last year while the credit was out there and prices were rising? And how do low interest rates factor in the equation at all?? Low inventory doesn't mean prices may rise in the future because rates are low?? Huh?

joshuatrio says

Get over it. You’re on a housing crash board.

So, that means I must think that housing will decline forever then? At some point the crash will end and prices will appreciate again. You realize that, right?

This is a crash board?? I thought it was... I never have bought and I never will buy a house forum :)

Ptipking222 says

On the Internet, it’s everyone’s God given right to make snarky, anonymous comments and accuse others of being Lawrence Yun.

Good point. I do enjoy snarky. Just make sure you bring the funny too at least.

I think the predictions of a housing shortage could come true. Everyone including the building industry was bracing for a great depression that didn't happen.

Inventory at all time lows just means now is a terrible time to buy! It's like going to a department store after a seasonal sale and picking from scraps. The trick is knowing that another seasonal sale is going to come along soon enough.. maybe a year from now and you'll have a much wider selection at better prices.

It just depends on if you believe the economy in CA is going to improve soon.. If you do.. then maybe housing isn't a bad investment. I fall in the category of someone that doesn't see improvement in the CA economy.. outside say the film and tech industries... Jobs are scarce.

I have first hand knowledge that an attorney in Pasadena got 200+ applications for a $14 an hour paralegal job.. He had attorneys and ivy league grads applying... people willingly to commute from Orange County. For a crappy no-benefit, no advancement paralegal job.... theres INTENSE competition.

How many well paid paralegals do you think bought over-priced homes in CA during the housing boom that artificially raised prices... Those 75K a year middle class CA jobs aren't coming back anytime soon....

That's what propped up housing... if you had two middle class workers makeing $75k then could stretch and afford a $500K home... Those jobs at those pay rates are all dried up.

Someone do a search for me and prove me wrong...

I doubt we'll see early 2009 prices again. I was shopping back then nobody and would touch housing. That was the time to buy.
Now it's different. Everyone on the sidelines just waiting to pounce.

tatupu70 says

OK–fair enough. I don’t think I’ll cheer anytime soon, but I will continue to point out when you’re wrong…

Whatever gets you off.

Numbers Numbers Numbers,
There's a new number for a new data point every day, sometimes on the hour.

Home Sales are UP = Absolutely true, the number of homes sold are up, Yes.
Average Listing price = down YOY and WOW
Average sales price =Down YOY and WOW
Average price persqft = Down YOY and WOW

Look at what is moving, and for how much, and not only that but how.
Cash only deals for those privileged enough to be aware that said property was even for sale, available or on the market otherwise.
The stock is being pillaged and plundered so successfully, even the house Dems want to kill Fanny and Fred.

Welcome to the Land baron age.

toothfairy says

I doubt we’ll see early 2009 prices again.

I doubt it as well; Prices won't go that high again for many, many years.

Next leg down coming to a Bay Area near you.

Housing is going down. Nobody's got any jobs. I'll refinance again when we get 1.9%.

E-man says

toothfairy says

I doubt we’ll see early 2009 prices again. I was shopping back then nobody and would touch housing. That was the time to buy.

Now it’s different. Everyone on the sidelines just waiting to pounce.

Well, better be safe than sorry. I’m getting a little defensive and preparing for the worse. So I say, bring it on.

What's in store that would turn the market for the worse? Looks like things are mostly getting better from where I sit.

pkowen I know what you're saying. Remember when realtors said "buy now or be priced out forever"?

Maybe there was some truth to that. Only "now" was more like 1995.

toothfairy says

pkowen I know what you’re saying. Remember when realtors said “buy now or be priced out forever”?
Maybe there was some truth to that. Only “now” was more like 1995.

Do you really believe the rubbish you type? Bottom in 2009? Really? I really can't see how anyone could honestly believe that.

I own outright and I very much expect the "value" to go down quite a bit more. I'm perfectly fine with that, I guess I'm just not your typical greedy BA homeowner.

CrazyMan says

toothfairy says

pkowen I know what you’re saying. Remember when realtors said “buy now or be priced out forever”?
Maybe there was some truth to that. Only “now” was more like 1995.

Do you really believe the rubbish you type? Bottom in 2009? Really? I really can’t see how anyone could honestly believe that.
I own outright and I very much expect the “value” to go down quite a bit more. I’m perfectly fine with that, I guess I’m just not your typical greedy BA homeowner.

What's your logic of holding if you are confident that it is going to go down quite a bit more? Personal attachment?

pkowen;

I completely agree with you. I live in the Peninsula too and have been looking at houses for the last year; just studying the market on the Peninsula.

500k will get you a termite infested property that needs about 50k in repairs or a house on the East side of El Camino.

I just cannot fathom how these houses cost 720k still for a decent place.

Even if the Peninsula has "hit the bottom" I don't believe these houses have the value they are selling for right now. If the market goes up on the Peninsula so be it; I don't think its worth 3/4 of a million dollars for a house here.

mthom says

What’s your logic of holding if you are confident that it is going to go down quite a bit more? Personal attachment?

It's long paid off and my property tax is pocket change (it was purchased by my dad in the early 60's).

The idea is that anyone in my family will always have a home available to them. My sister currently lives there, she just pays the tax and insurance, as her and I have very different financial situations.

My family is just more important to me than a little bit of money.

toothfairy says

I doubt we’ll see early 2009 prices again. I was shopping back then nobody and would touch housing. That was the time to buy.
Now it’s different. Everyone on the sidelines just waiting to pounce.

OMG!!! .... nothing more to add. Go buy two then .... it only goes up ... buy now or be priced out for ever .... aint making anymore land ... it's different this time .... it's different here .... (I know I must have missed a few)

Bap33 says

toothfairy says

I doubt we’ll see early 2009 prices again. I was shopping back then nobody and would touch housing. That was the time to buy.

Now it’s different. Everyone on the sidelines just waiting to pounce.

OMG!!! …. nothing more to add. Go buy two then …. it only goes up … buy now or be priced out for ever …. aint making anymore land … it’s different this time …. it’s different here …. (I know I must have missed a few)

LOL - "it's different this time" ... Haven't heard that in a while :)

CrazyMan says

toothfairy says

pkowen I know what you’re saying. Remember when realtors said “buy now or be priced out forever”?

Maybe there was some truth to that. Only “now” was more like 1995.

Do you really believe the rubbish you type? Bottom in 2009? Really? I really can’t see how anyone could honestly believe that.
I own outright and I very much expect the “value” to go down quite a bit more. I’m perfectly fine with that, I guess I’m just not your typical greedy BA homeowner.

itf you're talking about 1m+ Palo Alto houses. I have no idea about that market. I can only speak for my local area. How quickly houses are selling and the lack of foreclosures.
It's hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

toothfairy says

Remember when realtors said “buy now or be priced out forever”?

Realtards still say that. Today's selling technique involves making them think that these are rare "special" deals.

toothfairy says

It’s hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

We're still running on the fumes of the 2004-2007 boom. My experience of living in Tokyo 1992-2000 showed me that economies do not necessarily "rebound".

As for catalysts, the argument has to be what's going to push prices up vs. what's going to bring them down.

People who don't understand the massive twin stimuli of 2003-2007 -- the Bush tax cuts and the bubble lending -- naively think that we're going to be heading back to those nice times.

However, since the top 10% took the bulk of the Bush tax cuts, if they are allowed to sunset that is going to be a not insignificant drain on purchasing power for the upper end, and a falling upper end will compress the rest of the market.

But most people really don't understand that the bubble lending was a much bigger stimulus than the Bush tax cuts:

says it was $4 TRILLION in unsustainable debt, which is line with the fact that household debt expanded from $8T in late 2001 to peak at $14T in 2008:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

while federal debt expanded from $5.8T starting FY02 to $9.0T starting FY08.

And of course state finances are even in a more parlous condition.

Congress is going to be more gridlocked starting next year, so don't look for any more "stimulus", other than perhaps military spending, but precious little of that finds its way to the Bay Area these days.

I don't see any collapse coming, I just see a continued battering as things adjust to the new normal. FWIW, I think the MP -> LG axis is largely immune partially thanks to billions of AAPL and GOOG of employee stock holdings, Prop 13, and the fact that rich people gotta live somewhere.

toothfairy says

It’s hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

Higher interest rates, fundamental income levels that don't support current prices.... what more do you need?

klarek says

toothfairy says

It’s hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

Higher interest rates, fundamental income levels that don’t support current prices…. what more do you need?

$10 gasoline, Arizona-style Latino-hunting, mass state & local government layoffs, middle-class tax increases via higher FICA and Medicare take-outs, 99-week unemployment finally ending, military scale-backs.

Nothing but blue skies ahead!

toothfairy says

It’s hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

Higher interest rates, end of a tax credit that fueled bidding wars, fundamental income levels that don't support current prices.... what more do you need?

It's like asking at the peak of the market what could drive prices lowes.

toothfairy says

It’s hard to see any catalyst that would drive prices much further down from here.

If you are talking about Santa Clara, just a few more rounds of outsourcing will do the job.

yep same Santa Clara as this too
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2010/07/19/daily82.html?surround=lfn

It easy enough to pick one positive story for every negative story (I come here for negative the spin). It's getting easier as the economic recovery strengthens.
unless of course you dont believe we're in an economic recovery (which some people dont).

toothfairy says

Most of those same conditions were even worse right after the .com crash yet housing prices went up.

Are you comparing 2004 with 2010? Couple of differences.
- Unlike 2004, banking not giving many funny loans in 2010.
- After dot com bust, people in Silicon Valley thought real estate is safer investment. I don't think people have that much faith on real estate today.

toothfairy says

yep same Santa Clara as this too
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2010/07/19/daily82.html?surround=lfn

It easy enough to pick one positive story for every negative story (I come here for negative the spin).

The article says:

In the third quarter of 2010, 31 percent of companies say they will conduct hiring, up from 21 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

My employer had hiring freeze for one and half years. Recently they are trying to fill up a few positions which were open for more than two years. Hiring freeze cannot go forever. Someday they need to hire, if they want to run their projects. That's not a sign of economic recovery.

toothfairy says

It’s getting easier as the economic recovery strengthens.

Define recovery.
As for Silicon Valley, even local analysis group can't paint a rosy picture. Too bad!

Like the worst bubble areas, prices went from $600K to $300K in Concord. It's kinda unfair to assert that the doomsters here were wrong in 2007 about 2009-2010 when prices are half of the bubble still.

Here's a nice house:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Concord/1612-Lindbergh-Dr-94521/home/588872

listed for $370,000. A 30 year fixed is 4.625% now apparently, for a monthly expense of ~$2200.

Areas like Concord that have already collapsed, I don't see falling more until bad things happen, which may or may not be in the cards.

As for an actual recovery, talk to me after the 99-week extensions are over.

CrazyMan says

mthom says

What’s your logic of holding if you are confident that it is going to go down quite a bit more? Personal attachment?

It’s long paid off and my property tax is pocket change (it was purchased by my dad in the early 60’s).
The idea is that anyone in my family will always have a home available to them. My sister currently lives there, she just pays the tax and insurance, as her and I have very different financial situations.
My family is just more important to me than a little bit of money.

Makes sense - both financially and personally.

How does the momentum from a just recently expired tax cut continue? If the laws of physics were reflective of your view on economics, I could jump and let the momentum bring me all the way to the moon.