patrick.net

Dan8267 says

The fundamental problem that Easter Island experienced was that it cut down its forest faster than it replenished them. When they were out of trees, they could not even make boats to leave the island and were stuck on an island whose ecosystem had been destroyed.

Easter Islanders could leave the island (as anyone living on an island surrounded by an ocean) . . . they just couldn't return! The reason had little to do with trees but their boat building technology: the Polynesians used catamarans, not keel-weighted sailboats like in the North Atlantic. While cats are much faster boats than "traditional" sailboats of the North Atlantic and well suited to the mid-Pacific near the equator, they could not tach directly/closely into the wind. The Polynesians followed wind east-ward all the way from today's Indonesia near the equator, and had reached the end of their several hundred year old genetic journey at Easter Island, which was far south enough to reach the West Wind zone. There simply wasn't any island nearby that Polynesian catamaran could make round trip to and from. Any trip to Easter Island was a one-way trip, and any trip off the island was a one-way trip, never to be heard from again, until the European explorers arrived with heavily-keeled sail ships.

The moral of the story is that natural resources must be wisely managed and a society must avoid depleting resources faster than it can renew them whether through overpopulation or unrestrained consumerism.

They thought they were wisely managing their natural resources by cutting down the trees to help erect bigger and bigger Moai's (statues) so that sailors going off the island could return . . . like Polynesian sailors had always done on previous islands. The priests putting forth the Moai Protection Theory all came with credentials and proper peer-reviews of the day! So it was only logical they cut down all their trees in order to build bigger and bigger statues! The process was very well funded with tax money, and properly supervised by the high priest class.

Heraclitusstudent says

there is a limit on how many women you can seduce

http://www.youtube.com/embed/c7k2y08dSV4

This obviously is not an organic recovery.

Reality says

Easter Islanders could leave the island (as anyone living on an island surrounded by an ocean) . . . they just couldn't return! The reason had little to do with trees but their boat building technology

I have read otherwise as well as heard differently on a History Channel special.

The number of people became too large to be supported by the island’s limited resources, and by the 17th century the land had been deforested, the soil eroded, and many native plants and animals driven to extinction. The islanders no longer had sufficiently large trees with which to build sturdy boats, giving them no way to leave the island and limiting their fishing abilities.

And yes, stupid superstition and status seeking caused the islanders to chop down so many trees. But regardless of the cause or the intent of the the deforestation, the most important lesson and most relevant to this thread is that any finite renewable resource must be managed so that it is not depleted faster than it can be renewed or it will be lost. Easter Island was a microcosm of what is happening right now to the entire planet due to over-exploitation of resources by every nation.

HydroCabron says

A sure sign of the imminent skyrocketing of real estate prices.

A better class of buyers is entering the market, well-heeled and with the resources to outbid those without the cash reserves. Soon they will drive the prices far higher than anyone can afford, and everyone will be priced out forever.

One thing never considered in economics 101 is the case where the supply and demand curves no longer intersect. Demand vanishes, yet price becomes effectively infinite.

Those holding real property will soon own the universe: the money supply will be inadequate to purchase a single home in Stockton, and all real estate transactions will be in kind. Literally everyone will be priced out forever.

Recently I noticed Wall Street investors buying property in the area where I have my rentals. They not only pushing property prices higher but also they asking rent are much higher as well. Soon we going to be just servants of the aristocracy.

Homeboy says

This obviously is not an organic recovery.

Dont worry the organic recovery is still to come.

Heraclitusstudent says

The population will contract, the economy crater, people will have to work literally until they drop for lack of retirement, and we would all have wonderful technologies we will take to our graves in case we fail to upload ourselves into computers maintained by robots first.

Well that's what you get for having a Ponzi based economy.

Still you dismiss immigration. Adult immigrants don't take 18+ years to mature and don't take as many resources. The USA could do quite well with a zero birthrate and immigration.

Dan8267 says

And yes, stupid superstition and status seeking caused the islanders to chop down so many trees. But regardless of the cause or the intent of the the deforestation, the most important lesson and most relevant to this thread is that any finite renewable resource must be managed so that it is not depleted faster than it can be renewed or it will be lost. Easter Island was a microcosm of what is happening right now to the entire planet due to over-exploitation of resources by every nation.

Do you not realize that Easter Island exemplifies what happens in a finite society/environment managed by a government? We are talking about a relatively small island here closed off due to limitations of navigation technology. Polynesians had always filled up one island, then moved "excess" population off to the horizon on a different island, then various islands traded with each other and developed specialization thereby enabling even higher population on the original islands. A process that's not very dissimilar to London being proclaimed as "over-populated" in the 17th century with a population measured in the 100k's . . . whereas today, after three centuries of trade with the rest of the world, London has a population measured in the millions!

The problem with Easter Island was that it could not trade with anyone off the island due to the catamaran boat building technology running smack up against one-directional wind all year-round and geographical isolation. It fell upon the government to manage the finite resources, and the government promptly proceeded to exacerbate the problem by chopping down all the trees in accordance with their peer-reviewed religion, just like almost all government management/solutions do!

Without war or epdemic, such a tiny island was bound to be filled up beyond carry capacity in the absence of trade and rapid technological improvement resulting from trade. Government management of the finite resources only made the situation worse by creating a ecological disaster even more rapidly before any technological solution could give them a way out.

don't get married. can't lose if you don't play. the game is rigged just like the housing market.

I'd rather have the opportunity.

There are a lot of other price appreciation vehicles.

David Losh says

I'd rather have the opportunity.

There are a lot of other price appreciation vehicles.

Not many with the upside that the person you always argue with got.

bgamall4 says

REpro says

Recently I noticed Wall Street investors buying property in the area where I have my rentals. They not only pushing property prices higher but also they asking rent are much higher as well. Soon we going to be just servants of the aristocracy.

They may be underestimating multigenerational living, the one thing the banksters cannot control.

By bombarding homeowners with ads; “We buy your house 10% above market price, all cash” may convince many to sell.

What happened did he walk away from his house?

bgamall4 says

Totally manufactured. Question is, where does it go from here?

Good question. Affordability is down, but is still pretty good compared to overall average. I think that's mainly due to interest rates that are still near historic lows. I don't think housing will go down now, but it does seem overheated in some markets, like California.

Reality says

Do you not realize that Easter Island exemplifies what happens in a finite society/environment managed by a government?

I'm not arguing with anything you are saying, but it's completely irrelevant to the discussion that I was having. Even if everything you said is 100% true, it does not contradict any of my points and is a complete tangent to the conversation.

Dan8267 says

1. A growing economy does not require an ever-increasing population. Such an idea is highly dangerous.

Yep it's a dangerous idea, yet one that is widely relied upon, including in the US. There is a reason immigration is needed, and social sec calculations are directly based on population growth. Therefore you are directly benefiting from population growth and until a better solution is found, it is hypocritical to pretend otherwise.

Dan8267 says

Nothing you say negates the point that I made that the childless are not inflicting harm on society by selfishly refusing to produce children

Yeah they are not inflicting harm, just are just relying on other people having children, and dumping their costs on them.
($240K by child http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/child-born-in-2012-seen-by-u-s-costing-241-080-to-raise.html)

bgamall4 says

They may be underestimating multigenerational living, the one thing the banksters cannot control.

multigenerational living doesn't really matter as long as population is growing the excess inventory will be absorbed.

What they cannot control is people moving to cheaper area and building houses that they can afford. People complaining about high costs should do that.

Meg Ryan got her face refurbished!

http://thestir.cafemom.com/beauty_style/157363/meg_ryans_newest_face_isnt?utm_medium=sem2&utm_campaign=prismx&utm_source=outbrain-e&utm_content=0

note- just realized this URL has a query variable utm_campaign=prismx! wow scary times.

David Losh says

The bears have been absolutely correct. The market place is manipulated which is fine as long as you buy to sell, but Real Estate is a long term hold with high expenses.

The bears have been correct??? HOW?? Have prices come down or gone up?

This is what I mean...you don't see the facts buddy. It does not matter if prices are up because the market is manipulated etc etc ...like I said, it doesn't matter WHY - the fact is...prices are UP as of right now which means the bears have been wrong for 3 years in a row...and they may be wrong for the next 5 years in a row. As a family who is thinking about buying or renting thats all that matters. I have refied at the lowest rate in history and locked in my "rent". It's not going up. EVER. And my house has appreciated. I don't need to sell it to gain from that. Heard of HELOC's etc??

Heraclitusstudent says

Dan8267 says

1. A growing economy does not require an ever-increasing population. Such an idea is highly dangerous.

Yep it's a dangerous idea, yet one that is widely relied upon, including in the US. There is a reason immigration is needed, and social sec calculations are directly based on population growth. Therefore you are directly benefiting from population growth and until a better solution is found, it is hypocritical to pretend otherwise.

I have a better solution - DON'T set up a system which requires infinite expansion to function. Start there.

Heraclitusstudent says

Dan8267 says

Nothing you say negates the point that I made that the childless are not inflicting harm on society by selfishly refusing to produce children

Yeah they are not inflicting harm, just are just relying on other people having children, and dumping their costs on them.

($240K by child http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/child-born-in-2012-seen-by-u-s-costing-241-080-to-raise.html)

Yet you want parents to have their costs picked up by the childless?

Yes, exactly. The fact that women feel the need to carry pepper spray to defend themselves is a good example of the fear that is constant that a man will either rob or rape them. And it does happen.

rape is effectively come to mean any sexual experience where a woman feels dissatisfied, even if this dissatisfaction comes months, even years after the act.

Feminists destroyed the term rape in the same way their cohorts ruined the term 'racist'.

just one example of a severely confused girl who confuses her own personal problems with those of her entire gender. Unfortunately this has become the norm, as Feminists are nothing short of a mob of dissatisfied women who victimize men, typically those who are helpless economically.

another great example of too much information.

Heraclitusstudent says

Therefore you are directly benefiting from population growth and until a better solution is found, it is hypocritical to pretend otherwise.

Yes, so far economic growth has been tied to population growth. Consider how closely new construction and rising home values have been to a thriving economy.

A lot of investment is based on expectations of increasing GDP, not GDP
per person. And I believe that most current economic models and central bank policies are based on increasing populations.

Increasing population is what we know. But it is changing, or it will have to. The transition is already here.

Perfect setting for the next Dawn of the Dead movie.

The real issue is that people, even the sheeple, are processing what is going on. Maybe not on a high level, but nonetheless they are noticing troubling disconnects, and are getting ready to stampede.

No, it's all caused by higher taxes - a big misunderstanding. A Walmart spokesman said so.

HydroCabron says

No, it's all caused by higher taxes - a big misunderstanding. A Walmart spokesman said so.

have food stamp recipients experienced a tax hike?

toothfairy says

What happened did he walk away from his house?

No, we didn't, we are in the process of refurbishing the house.

It was a fixer we maxed out, and yes, we had the option of walking away, to capture the price appreciation.

We are now in an appreciating market place of a good location.

It's just funny how things work out.

Does the Walmart near you guys have fresh produce and other perishable foods on sale?

also to attain spiritual purity, never allow a woman who has had an abortion to prepare your food.

SubOink says

I don't need to sell it to gain from that. Heard of HELOC's etc??

Yeah, I have, as Bob continually points out. We're in the process of negotiating ours away.

Real Estate is a long term hold that has depended on appreciation in the past. Price spikes don't translate into appreciation unless they hold. Some will, many won't.

We've been in the fixer business for my entire career. We are Real Estate rich, and cash poor.

I personally want to get rid of my Real Estate, and have since 2006. My partners are harder to convince.

In the past, if we needed money, we would go to the auction, or contact auction pickers, buy a place, fix it, and sell it. Some times we would partner with the picker, the person who bought at auction.

My wife started us in the cleaning business, because we already had move out cleaners.

In four short years the cleaning business was generating more cash that the fixer business. Even though the fixer business gave us big chunks of money, the cleaning business is slow, and steady.

The IRS troubles we have are due to the labyrinth of IRS codes concerning Real Estate. The cleaning business is simple accounting.

Having a few dollars of equity in a property doesn't reflect the over all economy, or global economy. The bears have been calling this correctly for the past five years, yet people here point to the nickels, and dimes they have in new found Real Estate equity.

If you look at the whole farce objectively, yeah, you bought a house, yeah you'll HELOC at historically low rates, and yeah, you'll be paying the bank rent for at least 15 years with very little appreciating value.

Bob, I have more money than I can spend in my life time, so don't you worry about me.
Thanks

New Renter says

I have a better solution - DON'T set up a system which requires infinite expansion to function.

My point exactly. Any system that relies upon infinite expansion is, by definition, a Ponzi Scheme and is mathematically doomed to failure.

If things get too overpriced, you may see an organized rent strike or rent control on ballots...that is how it happened in SF, ridiculous increases in rent and voila! A ballot measure to control rent and it passes overwhelmingly.....so Wall Street, do not get too greedy....oops....too late!!

And of course this analysis brought to you by your good friends at Goldman Sachs ...ta da!!

Princess, having female child(ren) and other females whom I care very deeply for, I consider myself a feminist.

Why do you have "Larkspur" on your handle? You just want everyone to know, right, that you're domiciled in Larkspur. Like that's supposed to augment your point?

Well it does, but not in the way you may think it does, Princess.

Oh gawd The American Taliban is back. There goes another thread.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Oh gawd The American Taliban is back. There goes another thread.

it's quite obvious who is the intolerant party here.

MershedPerturders says

Personally I absolutely refuse to have anything to do with a woman who has had
an abortion

Wow, my filters must work the opposite way. There is no good or glory in propogating the genes of an unfit man if birth control failed. Not every zygote should be carried to term. What moral standard finds good in inflicting decades and six figures of burden for one night's poor judgement?

I'm willing to bet you would be every bit as quick to reject a single mother as a partner, anyway. Scratch the surface of most anti-abortion and anti-welfare blowhards, and you will find a lowly hypocrite.