patrick.net

dublin hillz says

freak80 says

Humans are becoming obsolete thanks to computers and automation. We'll all be on welfare in the coming decades, assuming the top 1% doesn't "eliminate" useless parasites like us.

I don't think so. If they purge stalinist style, there will be less consumer spending...

When full automation is reached, you don't need consumer spending.

It's Georgism or genocide.

sbh says

mell says

Why? You are investing in things of real value, not blown up fiat asset bubble crap.

The point is, Mell, my politics don't drive my management of capital. I own companies I despise because it makes me money. At the heart my criticism of SOME, certainly not ALL of youse Libertarians is that you seem tyrannized by your dogma, and you ignore using capital effectively if such use fails the purity test of your politics.

I trade mostly low-beta stocks in the biotech area on the long side as this is my main interest. If you mean by tyrannized that I am trading housing and banking only when a short play makes sense, then yes, I am guilty. But it's the least I can do for this society ;)

freak80 says

In effect, the top 1% will have created an automated system which works exclusively for them and nobody else. The bottom 99% will die of starvation or be eliminated by force. That's the endgame.

Exactly. That's why it's Georgism or genocide.

Of course, once the 1% kills off the remaing 99%, their descendants will forever fight each other to the death to survive. That's where that path leads.

Georgism leads to everyone having a good base quality of life, and some people working to increase the material quality or gain some sense of fulfillment.

However, if the 1% kills the 99%, I think they'll do it gradually, at least at first, and subtly so that the 99% doesn't notice their numbers dwindling. Sure, the 99% will see other people's numbers dwindling, but they won't realize they are all in the same group.

Housing is going to skyrocket from here... I think another 20-30% gains in housing (depending on the market) over the next year is my bet.

Gold is going nuts.

Dan8267 says

once the 1% kills off the remaing 99%,

How will they accomplish this - via "prison industrial complex" or do you envision U.S. transforming into a classic fascist states with death camps?

Well, that escalated quickly. It's a great day to own anything but the USD.

Gold blasting through +4% now. I would think we've seen the bottom in gold for some time. Meanwhile, physical continues to move to stronger hands.

curious2 says

There you have it. The Committee decided, and the markets did what the Committee told them to do.

Of course. The rich are now instantly 1% richer. The rest of us are stuck with higher food and fuel prices.

freak80 says

curious2 says

There you have it. The Committee decided, and the markets did what the Committee told them to do.

Of course. The rich are now instantly 1% richer. The rest of us are stuck with higher food and fuel prices.

What's not to like about socialism and central (banksta enrichment) planning? ;)

I could see gold getting to $1380-90, and then some profit taking. If it can blast above $1400, then we can go to $1425.

The key is to watch job reports next, and then of course the next FOMC meeting.

Today was a good trading day. I ran an option strangle on SLV for a 500% gain, and bought some silver miners with tight stops, for an average 10% gain.

Tomorrow we may see some follow through buying, and I'll fade out of these positions if we continue upwards.

$1000 gold intermediate sounds about right to me. It could go lower. I think we'll see a run at $1400 short term before that happens though.

sbh says

freak80 says

Of course. The rich are now instantly 1% richer. The rest of us are stuck with higher food and fuel prices.

You can take that view, but why wouldn't you anticipate the situation and put yourself in the position to benefit by it? We don't have to require of our capital the same advocacy as our votes.

That depends. If you're still youngish you can take risks and speculate together with the markets and asset bubbles. The older you get, the more conservative your financial planning becomes and usually should become, because if you get caught in a bust you are left with little. That's why older people tend to either save or stick with pensions and they are getting the shaft because they get nothing.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=224426

sbh says

You can take that view, but why wouldn't you anticipate the situation and put yourself in the position to benefit by it? We don't have to require of our capital the same advocacy as our votes.

I'm doing that right now. I'm tired of "fighting city hall" as my late grandmother used to call it.

It's sad that the quickest way to make money these days is financial speculation, backed by easy money policies. Is that due to the political influence of the financial sector, a sector which has ballooned in the last 30 years?

Of course right now the Fed probably has no choice but easy money policies...if they tightened we really could go back into recession.

If inflation expectations drive oil prices too high, we can always invade another country and steal their oil. The political influence of the "defense" industry will back that option as well.

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999:

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Wednesday, September 18, 2013 __ Level is 100.2

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes indeed, go here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

Duck wins.

Why??

Because he realizes the game is manipulated, it's not organic, it's contrived. The bank are still holding inventory and hanging on to distressed squatter properties, they need prices to stay up so their losses are minimized. I doubt all the investors would enter the market like they have if a crash was coming.

The game is rigged and the Fed just confirmed it. Learn to play or just be happy you are not in it.

How do you be a contrarian investment wise?

"to show what an utter asshole he is when housing prices tank and his wifes investment goes down the gutter in concord."

Iwag! Do you also have a supporting argument/evidence for your statement?

But that means more QE, so stocks and bonds are up! Bad news is good news thanks to the "taper" paranoia.

I had cloud13 as my account and I was a perma bear for years ( check out my posts ).

Call it Crazy says

The Fed predicts that the economy will grow just 2 percent to 2.3 percent this year, down from its previous forecast in June of 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent growth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-downgrades-outlook-us-economy-180029632.html

If there is this big recovery going on- why do we still need QE after five years

Iwag says

obama gave me and all my friends money for free meds, housing, food, all paid by liberals like you! but we use the money instead on hookers and blow. we love obama!

Representing the stupidity & hate combo.

Good job.

"darrrrrrrrr, fox news rocks !! Me have it all figured out !!"

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

The QE will continue until the economy improves.

Will the middle class recovery start after the wealthy recovery is firmly in place? Still comes down to jobs, jobs, jobs and the numbers still suck.

"The Public Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1223928
is putting it mildly! It is hard to believe that this status quo is America ...

humanity says

Representing the stupidity & hate combo.

Good job.

"darrrrrrrrr, fox news rocks !! Me have it all figured out !!"

i dont watch fox news asshole. im actually a big fan of Al Jazeera

The contrarian play right now would be to bet on rising interest rates.

JustInTime says

The contrarian play right now would be to bet on rising interest rates.

They will eventually rise as the Fed gradually loses control (they have already risen), but it won't go down without a fight ;)

Wait, so you're saying that none of the bubbles of the last 5 years are due to the fed's policy of near 0% interest rates?

If so, you're completely delusional and should be remanded for treatment.

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/topic11669.html

egads101 says

On their own, 0% rates account for about 20% of the house price we saw in the bubble, if that. That is about how much better monthly payments got from the mortgage rate change.

Yeah right. It's only a question of rates. All the $trillions in extra money supply looking for somewhere to go has nothing to do with the Feds.

That's pretty delusional.

Ducky, Do you still have your foreclosureradar account.
What are the details on this property: Man shoots locksmith in eviction try near San Ramon
The incident was reported shortly before 2 p.m. on the 3400 block of Ashbourne Circle in the Norris Canyon Estates development west of San Ramon, said Jimmy Lee, a spokesman for the Contra Costa County sheriff's office, which patrols the unincorporated area.

I am all fed up with the fed!

JustInTime says

Sure, but take a look at the 10Y JGB chart for the last 20 years and ask yourself how sure you are that's coming in the next decade or two...

Agreed, however I think in the case of Japan it may have had a little to do with the continued trade surplus, which is gone by now and which the US hasn't had.

Well I am all out. had a nice run the last few years. I will stay out for a bit-too crazy for me. I just can't get a read -though with Janet Yellen, I think this rally may continue for a few years-who knows may breach 20,000.

Though where I moved I am thinking of buying a house-no bubble here and very decent prices.

David Losh says

So, you're right, it's not the Fed, it's the speculation.

Yes, it's speculation but it's cause by the Fed.

Traditionally, with Treasuries yielding 5% returns, you didn't have to go out and plow your savings into Phoenix shit-shacks in order to produce investment income.

I think there probably is something to the idea that the Feds actions did put a floor under housing and the economy in this depression and that it may indeed have caused a recovery and deleveraging process that takes far longer than it would have otherwise.

THat doesn't mean that I think it was a mistake. Maybe it wasn't.

But I also question whether it might have been better, if banks had been broken up or otherwise prevented from consolidating and continuing many of the practices that could lead to another "too big to fail" fiasco.

Fed interventions which were designed to deal with the so called liquidity trap, were not directly related to the problem of banks having too much power. But then again, part of what all the QE did, was about putting banks on a stronger financial footing.

Again, maybe necessary. But bigger more powerful banks is not clearly a good thing.

Jesus would have head-butted Warren, then put out his cigarette on Piers Morgan's eyeball.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

I just know Jesus would have taken a shit on Warren's face.

Gives a whole new meaning to "turn the other cheek".

Hello Everyone!

I've been a super long time reader coming here sometimes daily or at least weekly for years. I had my profile set-up but then lost/forgot my password and was too lazy to reset it.

I guess the reason I'm telling you this is because I really have learned so much from all of you, even when you rant and rave. Thank you all. I read Patrick and DrHousingBubble as well as IrvineRenter's blogs (ochousingnews).

I have been sitting on the fence since 2007 renting. I have been a little scared to buy and am now seriously considering buying as an investor but I do believe housing will be cheaper in the fall/winter. Truth, I am happy renting, but I feel I have outgrown my living situation and need more space, so my next move should be a larger house, possibly even a purchase. I'm just toooo risk adverse, that I still haven't been able to figure out if now is the right time.

Anyways, I'm not asking for advice, I know most of the more frequent users opinions. I just might decide to become more engaged in your conversations while I try to come to terms with my decision. Just wanted to introduce myself and say thanks for being highly opinionated and in many cases super knowledgeable.

One more thing, I'm a lazy typer since I do that all day, so when I'm away from work, that is the last thing I want to do.

Apocalypse, you crack me up with your cannibal anarchy mentality... keep it up!

And how did the median price in the US say around 2010 and adjusted for inflation compare to previous years? How many previous bubbles had 4 year bull traps AFTER prices had basically returned to historical norms?