patrick.net

Bigsby says

These aren't the ARMs of the past as far as I'm aware, and I'm of the understanding that many are done for jumbo loans or for short term financing/refinancing. That doesn't sound like financially desperate individuals.

The question you need to answer is, with 30 year rates in the mid 4's, why is there an recent 3 times the increase in ARM's, when 30 year rates are historically low???

They aren't historically low. If say you were a flipper financing a purchase, which option would you go for? Or say a baby boomer looking to refi to pay for kids through college but with clear plans to down size in the next 5 or so years. Or a rich individual who could pay all cash but funds their jumbo loan with an ARM and dumps the cash into a booming stock market. Or...

40718

Bigsby 2013 Dec 22, 10:12am

Bigsby says

They aren't historically low.

30 year rates aren't at a historically low point??? 4.5% is a "normal" rate??? Right......

It's not historically low though, is it? What were the rates before this year? The point is that certain people might see the benefit in getting an ARM at a 1-1.5% lower rate for a number of reasons and not just that they can't afford the payments on a standard mortgage.

40719 Robert Sproul 2013 Dec 22, 10:25am

The Democrats Will Save Us. Isn't it pretty to think so.
I don't believe it anymore. The democrats, having lost their traditional sources of funding, turned to the common trough and achieved parity in Corporate PAC funding with the republicans in 2008.
They serve the same Masters now as far as I can see. The desperately needed, life or death reforms won't come from within the two party system. In the words of Wm K Black, You can't vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs.
According to Former President of the United States Jimmy Carter: â€œAmerica does not at the moment have a functioning democracy."

"while the other party (Dems), once the champion of everyday working people, has been so enfeebled by its own collaboration with the donor class that it offers only token resistance to the forces that have demoralized everyday Americans" Bill Moyer

I have been a registered democrat and voted in every election since I was eligible 40 years ago. From now on i will withhold my consent from this money poisoned Corporatocracy.

40720 mell 2013 Dec 22, 10:46am

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5kmlh5qvz1s4.pdf?expires=1387775530&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=03C50B4F8DE74C85598F720CCC16A10A

jazz music says

Such opinions lose then just as dissenting opinions lose now since Newscorp with FoxNews has bought it's way in to dominate the airwaves and the majority of american people with GOP talking points by their endless parade of attractive female blond anchor persons and tough talking GOP austerity pitchmen in suits.

That's real funny.... Fox bought their way in with blond women... Do they also pay people to watch their channel too??

Really???

No other news channel has females anchors???

Could it be that maybe some people are "waking up" to the lies being told on some of those other networks???

Nah, it must be the blond anchors swaying everybody....

Furthermore any talking points are lost if delivered by too much hotness - can't be good for the agenda ;)

40721

lostand confused 2013 Dec 22, 10:56am

Conservatives are not for small gubmnt-at least the ones that are elected. Dubya the shrub and his merry spending republican congress critters bought us the No Child left behind and the half a trillion dollar medicare spending.

Obozo the clown and his big corporate loving democrats don't care one bit about the middle class. They are worse corporatists then Bush and the repubs.

The joke is on us.

40722

HydroCabron 2013 Dec 22, 1:04pm

ashag28 says

why is this idiot here?

In their own minds, the Internet belongs to the Anti-Zionist Crusaders. The rest of us are just guests.

Every blog, every comments section, and every forum, if left unattended, will eventually become all Zionism, all the time.

If left unopposed, they would take over the entire Internet.

Oh, and each one claims to be a lone, persecuted voice in the wilderness.

40723

Bellingham Bill 2013 Dec 22, 1:05pm

Bigsby says

It's the mortgage of choice in a number of countries

countries that have FUCKED themselves by borrowing more & more money to bid up the cost of housing.

"In the United States, the expansion of the subprime mortgage market has pushed the share of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) up from 10% of originations in 2001 to 35% in 2004."

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/39698857.pdf

shows Spain was the world-beater in ARMs before the crash, with Ireland close behind.

shows ARMs were the main driver of price appreciation in California.

These often came with teaser-rate and other juicers to make housing more "affordable" for buyers. Of course, this is impossible, anything that makes housing more affordable for all buyers just jacks up the price, since we have to bid against each other for housing.

40724

Bigsby 2013 Dec 22, 1:19pm

Why do ARMs have to be automatically problematic? Giving them to people without reasonable checks is problematic. I was under the impression that the requirements now are much more stringent than they were at the height of the bubble. Selling them to someone who can qualify for a fixed mortgage but chooses not to go that route is entirely different to pushing them on people who can't make those payments.

40725

JodyChunder 2013 Dec 22, 1:34pm

Hydro, the governor just admitted he was prewarned about something like this happening in the state:

And Adam doesn't exist:

The boogity-boo nutcracker techno music in the second video is what sold me.

40726

Homeboy 2013 Dec 22, 2:00pm

SoftShell says

With the top dog abandoning the ship, it appears Homeboy is running around like a headless chicken...

Nah, I'm just laughing at you Rushbots. You complained about the individual mandate for 2 years; now you want it back. LOL.

40727

Bellingham Bill 2013 Dec 22, 2:54pm

Bigsby says

Why do ARMs have to be automatically problematic?

because it ratchets up the market to those price levels. Housing is sold on the bid, so ceteris paribus the 1 year ARM guy is going to come in with the highest bid.

This is what Denmark has worked themselves into, everybody refi'ing their 1 year ARMs.

But if & when interest rates go up, their market is going to really implode.

Netherlands is even worse, since everyone just gets IO loans.

99% of the problems in any modern economy is that everyone thinks it great when housing prices go up. It's not.

40728

Bigsby 2013 Dec 22, 3:00pm

They're all for 1 year?

40729

anotheraccount 2013 Dec 22, 3:03pm

There is no problem with ARMS until there is. For example I did not think we would ever get past 2.5% on 10 year this year and we almost at 3%

I am not saying that rates are going up from here but what if they do rise to 5%. Basically anybody that has 3 or 5 year arm will be in trouble.

40730 Reality 2013 Dec 22, 5:10pm

Bellingham Bill says

"Do you think any bum should be able to homestead on your lawn? or the patch of woods giving you privacy from your neighbor?"

Sure. Maximum freedom is what libertarianism is all about, right?

Then you don't understand libertarianism or freedom, or property rights or even the basics of human behavior.

"To prove a legal title to land one must trace it back to the man who stole it."

You are essentially restating the illegitimacy of government.

40731 Reality 2013 Dec 22, 5:14pm

Simply limit people to 5 properties per household, of any kind, anywhere. Corporations may only own property they use, or better yet, can only lease. Corporations cannot be formed to hold or rent real estate; LLPs are okay but the limits apply to each and every member (ie Joe and Jack buy an office building, it counts as 1 property for both individuals).

Problem solved.

Really smart. So all the developers and builders are instantly outlawed in your scheme. Pray tell how do you keep coming up with those brilliant brain dead "simple" solutions? Do you only have shoe-size IQ simpletons living in your neighborhood?

Corporate entities are often formed to hold real estate (commercial and residential) due to liability and accounting reasons. It is not at all unusual for an individual (household) to have more than 5 properties: small business owners and practitioners like lawyers often own their offices and small business chains. A rental building being condominiumized can often have more than 5 units; your proposed limit of 5 may well force people into consolidate ownership: reversing the condos into apartment buildings to count as 1, perhaps even consolidating multiple buildings into a street block sized single property, with the resulting market becoming much less liquid and less competitive.

40732

Bigsby 2013 Dec 22, 11:53pm

Bigsby says

That's your response? You forgot to add NEOCON ZIONIST CONSPIRACY.

I have more proof that Sandy Hook parents were actors than you have that the US was not involved in Libya and Syria in the beginning.

So I see you deleted my response. Surprise, surprise. Really, what's the point in responding to someone like you when you simply delete posts that point out the utter idiocy of your 'reasoning?' Anyway, it was amusing for a short while, but your conspiracy garbage gets boring fast with your Sandy Hook hoax bollocks being a new low even for you. Enjoy your lonely paranoid delusions. Make believe that those are 'proof.' The rest of us will just shake our heads at how completely insane you clearly are.

40733

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 12:22am

Bigsby says

bgamall4 says

Do you doubt a Holocaust survivor, Einstein?

Is there a particular reason we shouldn't?

Oh we should listen to you instead?

Missing the point as always.

40734

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 12:24am

If I lived in a small town and a hundred families came in from NYC all at once, I would know.

Especially if they replaced all the children, teachers, police officers, ambulance workers, doctors, nurses, hospital workers, local reporters, coroners....

40735

HydroCabron 2013 Dec 23, 12:26am

Ah, here comes the Jewish Banker stuff. Some old-school material!

I was beginning to worry that you had not read up on your foundational Jew-hysteria literature, but I was wrong. Well done!

40736

tatupu70 2013 Dec 23, 12:36am

Problem is, most people going for ARM's are doing it because they can't afford the house with a 30 year conventional.

And you know this how? I've gotten 7/1 ARMs before because I was pretty sure my company would relocate before 7 years was up. Why pay the extra 1%?

Bellingham Bill says

That chart pretty much sums it up.... First comes the creative financing, then the price ramp follows....

Not sure I agree with the conclusion. Other than the 2003-2008 time period, I don't see much correlation between ARM ratio and house pricing index. I would argue that underwriting standards correlate much better than ARM ratio.

40737

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 12:40am

You say more with less research than anyone I have ever read. That is why I grow tired of you Bigsby. You bring nothing to the table. Yet you take up half the space!

Oh, you mean I need to hit up Youtube and post up a few videos? Bgamall style 'research.' What research do I need to do? I've followed the Arab Spring closely since it began. I live in the region. I have many Arab friends. We talk about the issues a lot. You know nothing about the Middle East and you know nothing about Sandy Hook. You are just a deluded old man who apparently gets some sense of empowerment by mistakenly thinking they are more informed about certain issues than others. The truth is that you are just more confused and more paranoid.

And you didn't address how they managed to switch out all those up standing members of the community for non-Jewish zionist actors from NYC. Perhaps your research can explain that.

40738

HydroCabron 2013 Dec 23, 12:54am

Yeah, the conspiracy theory guys always call it "research".

Never mind that the materials they are "researching" are not Library-of-Congress grade original materials per se. More like wildly inaccurate, thoroughly debunked spew that refuses to die.

40739

tatupu70 2013 Dec 23, 1:13am

Read this release and then tell me why there is a drop in applications but ARM's are way up...

You'd have to ask the folks that are taking out the ARMs. Maybe they believe rates are coming down in the future and they can refi. Who knows?

Maybe you're correct and they can't afford the house with a 30 year.

But you've, so far, shown nothing to indicate it's one over the other.

40740

MisdemeanorRebel 2013 Dec 23, 1:31am

Reality says

Corporate entities are often formed to hold real estate (commercial and residential) due to liability and accounting reasons. It is not at all unusual for an individual (household) to have more than 5 properties: small business owners and practitioners like lawyers often own their offices and small business chains. A rental building being condominiumized can often have more than 5 units; your proposed limit of 5 may well force people into consolidate ownership: reversing the condos into apartment buildings to count as 1, perhaps even consolidating multiple buildings into a street block sized single property, with the resulting market becoming much less liquid and less competitive.

I understand how shit is now. Land isn't like other goods and services, you can't make more land.

You notice I said Corporations can lease or rent, without limits. Starbucks is free to lease their stores from individual landholders - since that's the only kind of landowner there will be. Starbucks can still have thousands of locations scattered across the country- they just can't own 99% of them.

Ray Kroc once said McD's is a real estate business. Well, let McD's do what they ought to be doing - making hamburgers.

And yes, very wealthy individuals might take over a whole building. So What? They'll own 3 apartment buildings, a summer house, and their primary residence. Or whatever combo they like.

It's awfully hard to buy a huge contiguous space in any populated area. It might be possible to turn dozens of 100-acre farms into one 1000 acre parcel in North Dakota or something, but it would take years and years - and one hold out would ruin the whole scheme.

40741

MisdemeanorRebel 2013 Dec 23, 1:40am

Reality says

So all the developers and builders are instantly outlawed in your scheme

YES! It's wonderful. The country is full of father-son builders who buy a plot, act as GM, get the thing built and sell it. No more endless tracts nobody wants, only inhabited by Methheads. No more developers running the local government, etc.

Best thing with these developers being gone: No more sweetheart deals with big corps where to get a tenant, the developer who runs half the city kicks out all the independent Chinese Restaurants and Mailbox Places by suddenly jacking their rent, because he made a non-compete deal with Panda Express and the UPS Store, and now you gotta drive 30 minutes in heavy traffic. Not to mention destroying family businesses.

40742

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 1:49am

Give me something, moron.

It's pretty difficult when you keep deleting my responses. As I said before, you seem to believe Youtube videos amount to research, so I presume I can simply post up any one of the vast number of news reports on the internet and that would be all the research I need. Again, is that correct?

40743

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 1:53am

That is exactly what I have been arguing.

No, it isn't. And you proceed to contradict that assertion with everything you then post in the above comment and pretty much everything else you have posted in the past on the topic.

If you don't bring any concrete research to the table refuting these things you are taking up space and wasting my time.

And there you go again. You clearly have no idea what actual research constitutes. Spouting a dozen online conspiracies with no support and claiming they are FACT does not constitute research.

40744

Homeboy 2013 Dec 23, 3:23am

We'll just leave it at this....

Obviously you don't get it. I think it's a bad idea to give people a break on the insurance requirement. I think the mandate is necessary to make the system solvent. Obama wrongly gave in to pressure from the right and their media campaign to destroy ACA. I'm just laughing my ass off at those of you who complained about the mandate, and now complain when it's temporarily suspended. Flip flop much?

40745

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 3:24am

Bigsby says

It's pretty difficult when you keep deleting my responses. As I said before, you seem to believe Youtube videos amount to research,

A picture is worth a thousand words, ten thousand of your worthless words, Rothschild.

Your pictures certainly aren't. Perhaps you'd care to explain how all your Sandy Hook videos constitute legitimate research. It's a fair question. You might even want to respond instead of once again deleting my post.

40746 Reality 2013 Dec 23, 3:47am

I understand how shit is now. Land isn't like other goods and services, you
can't make more land.

Of course you can: land fills; fully one half of Netherland's land area is man-made land fills. In any case, you can't make most atoms either. Yet Atoms in a computer or cell phone or a car get re-cycled and used to make better computers, better phones and better cars all the time. Likewise, land used for existing homes get recycled to make new homes, and transportation technology make more land accessible just like mining that takes underground atoms into above-ground industrial stockpile of atoms that eventually go into making all sorts of stuff. You idiots need to get your heads out of the Georgist rectum. Even Henry George himself realized later on that the mythical "land" concept in his youth was all wrong.

40747

Bigsby 2013 Dec 23, 3:52am

thomaswong.1986 says

worst healthcare system of any industrialized country

define worst compared to Canada, Japan, and UK ?

they have shortages and waiting lists... i cant think of anything

worst than someones fixes your issue some 6-9 months down the road..

Not being able to afford having it fixed at all?

40748 Reality 2013 Dec 23, 3:56am

You notice I said Corporations can lease or rent, without limits. Starbucks
is free to lease their stores from individual landholders - since that's the
only kind of landowner there will be. Starbucks can still have thousands of
locations scattered across the country- they just can't own 99% of them.

Here on pleant earth, most Starbucks are operating inside leased commercial space, often malls. Starbucks Corporation owns the stores (the business, an abstract concept) but not the physical buildings. I don't know what planet you live on.

Ray Kroc once said McD's is a real estate business. Well, let McD's do what
they ought to be doing - making hamburgers.

Ray was talking about the community impact of his company. McD's does make hamburgers, at least on planet earth.

And yes, very wealthy individuals might take over a whole building. So What?
They'll own 3 apartment buildings, a summer house, and their primary residence.
Or whatever combo they like.

Without being able to diversify into different locations under your scheme, they'd be buying up entire towns just like hickvilles down south, or in the backwater of even the north, where a clan owns most of the houses in a town of less than 1000 people; as a result, people with different last names often get run out of town eventually due to not being able to get a discount on rent for being blood relatives. Combining all those houses into single title would make future buying and selling single family houses all the more difficult. Then you'd really be talking about feudalistic manors.

It's awfully hard to buy a huge contiguous space in any populated area. It
might be possible to turn dozens of 100-acre farms into one 1000 acre parcel in
North Dakota or something, but it would take years and years - and one hold out
would ruin the whole scheme.

However under the pressure of your scheme, owners of neighboring apartment buildings would have a strong incentive to talk and swap their disparate buildings in order to combine titles. You end up concentrating ownership, exactly what you do not want if you prefer lower rent.

40749 Reality 2013 Dec 23, 4:06am