patrick.net

New Renter says

The buyer always pays, either directly or through a higher purchase price.

So when a house is sold without a RE agent, it's 6% cheaper? I have not found that to be the case.

Why do you hate the new math?

It's new home prices, not all home prices. Big difference there.

Call it Crazy says

Based on the median real income, home prices have never been more unaffordable at a stunning 6.7x average salary.

Just insane. In order to build net worth, it is recommended to NEVER have a mortgage that is more than 2X your yearly income. I know this is very hard for most people to achieve.

Call it Crazy says

Still think "we" can handle higher interest rates?

We can't, but the real question is, what will cause interest rates to spike drastically any time soon?

Call it Crazy says

Oh no..... Are we seeing a chink in the armor????

Hey, don't be racist.

Start creating 1 year adjustable rate mortgages at 1% to bring the illusion that the payments are affordable.

The problem isn't home prices are too high, it's that wages are too low.

rooemoore says

The problem isn't home prices are too high, it's that wages are too low.

Yes, the affordability sucks.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Tuesday, December 24, 2013 __ Level is 104.9

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

Using this site as a platform for slanderous allegations against private citizens.

Ban him!

This is your last chance to get fucked in the ass by me.

Call your local mortgage broker and realtor immediately to sign-up for your last chance to be torn a new fucking hole.

If the site owner bans your ass, I'll be happy to go premium for two years.

Thwarting a lunatic trying to urinate on passers by is not blocking free speech.

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

The buyer always pays, either directly or through a higher purchase price.

So when a house is sold without a RE agent, it's 6% cheaper? I have not found that to be the case.

Probably not but the money still ultimately comes from the buyer. If it doesn't go to an agent it goes to the seller. Either way the money comes out of the buyer's pocket.

Call it Crazy says

And the rest are putting their home purchases on their EBT cards...

Only the ones not paying with their couch change.

New Renter says

Probably not but the money still ultimately comes from the buyer. If it doesn't go to an agent it goes to the seller. Either way the money comes out of the buyer's pocket.

Not to derail the topic, but this is not correct, IMO.

nw888 says

Yes, it's a really hard, because there is nothing for sale. (We're looking for at least a 1/4 acre, so already that's rare).

I watched prices barely budge down about 10-15% during the crash. San Marino was 5%. They just stayed there as interest rates came down, and then people were selling for just over the bubble price they payed in 2005-2006. If that fiasco didn't make housing budge, I doubt anything in the near future is going to do it.

so buy now or get priced out forever? I cant tell you whether its time to buy or not right now, however buying anything under pressure is never a good idea imo.

This is just my opinion but, if we knew there was a huge bubble in 2006 and prices are now higher than that...buying now sounds like a bad idea. Take my opinion with a grain of salt...

LOL.
The merriest bunch ever.

people still post zerohedge articles? LOL

affordability is all about monthly payment which is still very low compared to the last few decades due to STILL-VERY-LOW interest rates. how about a real chart?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPHAI

bgamall is right. the arm is too long.

wow the mountain of evidence is huge. i think this hoax is going to be busted wide open.

Mr. & Mrs. HowMuchaMonth don't care about your stupid ratios, only that they are "wasting money on rent" and were offered a loan that they can keep up payments on if they go on a Ramen diet.

Strategist says

LOL.

The merriest bunch ever.

agreed

bgamall4 says

So, Emilie's aunt turns out to be a lawyer in Utah?

http://www.cottlegarrettlaw.com/firm/Profiles.html

Look at the middle lady.

Ugh.

You're a realtor.

Meccos says

This is just my opinion but, if we knew there was a huge bubble in 2006 and prices are now higher than that...buying now sounds like a bad idea. Take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The problem is proposition 13 that artificially limits the supply by incentivizing people not to move. This holds down the inventory, and so prices naturally rise in the good areas. For example, there will be more people from Google, Facebook, etc. looking for homes in Palo Alto and Atherton than there will be supply. This will keep prices raising absent a giant drop in their stocks.

Meccos says

so buy now or get priced out forever? I cant tell you whether its time to buy or not right now, however buying anything under pressure is never a good idea imo.

In 2006 things were much simpler; I could have told you with 100% certainly not to buy, but today it's a bit more complicated.

Positives for real estate in bay area:
- Fed is printing a lot of money and it made nasdaq go up 37% in the last year. Many people are cashing out options and transferring money into real estate.
- Chinese are taking money out of china and parking it here because China could have a serious economic adjustment soon.
- Prop 13 limits supply
- people that got their mortgages during super low rates are less likely to add to inventory
- union jobs (firefighters, cops, BART) are still making great money and did not really have to take a pay cut.

Negatives or risks:
- higher interest rates
- nasdaq might have a significant correction once QE is over or for some other unpredictable reason.
- companies like Cisco may have to do large layoffs as their revenues keep being eaten away by the cloud.

..SSSSHHHHHH!!!!! sh... sh... sh...
Quiet you guys, it's almost midnight, let's see if we hear any miracle dings in the kitty, for Ole' Gipper's sake. (soft Violins start playing)
You know ever since Obama was just a little bra in Kenya dreaming of the days he would be hitting those radical waves in Hiawatha. He always dreamed that he would one day create an Insurance racket so convoluted in greed, fraud, lies and deceit it would almost seem too good to be true.
Even way back then he knew it would need the young and invincible, the rich and the venerable, and the dumb and available to pull it off.
Those meanies want to destroy his dreams people, if their is a Santa in Heaven and Jesus loves MOST of the children, then please grant this be Christmas Miracle for Obama on this so holy oh the most holiest of all nights, just a few more hundred thousand before midnight. That's all he ever wanted, even back when he was a community organizer who Organized that thing for what's his face. This is all he ever wanted.
On Christmas day, that is all he wanted.

(falls to the ground and starts sobbing)
[the ground starts shaking and rumbling]

...wait a minute, what's that?
What's this?

It's the Diabetic, the Dismembered... Oh the Maimed, ah I can't look is that guy roasted? Ah The humanity!!!!

looking back @nw888 comments, it appears that his wife is a physician. Not sure what nw888 does, but I find it oddly hilarious that in S. cali (N cali as well) it is difficult to buy a nice home on a physician salary...

Marry xmass everybody!!! May your houses go up 30% if you are a home owner, may you get a housing crash if you are on the sidelines, may your rent decrease 50% if you are a renter, may rents increase by 50% if you are landlord.

May your dreams come true!!!

rooemoore says

The problem isn't home prices are too high, it's that wages are too low.

No, home prices are too high. Increasing wages doesn't increase my lifelong savings.

Vicente says

Mr. & Mrs. HowMuchaMonth don't care about your stupid ratios, only that they are "wasting money on rent" and were offered a loan that they can keep up payments on if they go on a Ramen diet.

You forgot to mention if they can also get that HELOC to fund their Hawaiian vacation that would work great as well.

Meccos says

so buy now or get priced out forever? I cant tell you whether its time to buy or not right now, however buying anything under pressure is never a good idea imo.

This is just my opinion but, if we knew there was a huge bubble in 2006 and prices are now higher than that...buying now sounds like a bad idea. Take my opinion with a grain of salt...

I agree, and I'm always concerned about this. I just don't see what catalyst is going to make a major change in this market. Plus, I'm tired of waiting on the sidelines, and don't want to wait 5 more years for a crash that brings prices to where they are today.

I may be wrong, but we're not trying to get rich off of our home. We want to remodel it to our liking and enjoy the memories with our kids. Sappy to some, but it's worth more than money now.

Meccos says

Looking back @nw888 comments, it appears that his wife is a physician. Not sure what nw888 does, but I find it oddly hilarious that in S. cali (N cali as well) it is difficult to buy a nice home on a physician salary...

Yes she is a physician, and I work in themed entertainment and film. We can't believe how expensive housing is now. Although we do better than most (I presume), housing makes us feel like we're barely scraping by. Weird, I know.

This is the time of year in which we pause and quietly reflect on the values which Jesus stood for: free markets, the acquisition of material wealth through worldly success, and hatred of taxation and the poor.

God sent his only son to show us the virtues of capitalism and respect for money lenders and the wealthy.

I will see you all in the church parking lot tomorrow morning, stepping out of your brand new SUVs!

Mark D says

people still post zerohedge articles? LOL

You still post NAR affordability index?

Mark D says

affordability is all about monthly payment

That's...pretty facile. And I'm being kind because it's crissmuss.

There is the small world in which the market is evolving: rich people, low inventory, high rents, investors, cash, gov subsidies, maybe restrictions on supply.

And then there is the wider world looking from the outside: millennials living in their parents's basement, low mortgage applications, few new constructions, etc...

PVT Pyle would have made a great Realtor.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/8WmaAl6hPzw

Debt crisis began because interest rate has been set too low, which started by Greenspan. With cheap borrowing, every asset will be bid higher in price, and everyone becomes speculator. These high price are not "fundamental", they are "speculative".

The current low wages keep consumer prices low. Imagine when wages are increased, all prices will be skyrocket, all hell will break loose, I will be very worry. So it is better to keep wage low, to constraint peon's spending.

Call it Crazy says

Mark D says

people still post zerohedge articles? LOL

affordability is all about monthly payment which is still very low compared to the last few decades due to STILL-VERY-LOW interest rates. how about a real chart?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPHAI

Hmmm...The OP was about NEW houses, not overall affordability in the US.... A bit of a difference....

Try this chart from the link in the OP:

*

Still a bargain. I'll take two.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Jesus Christmas message is simple: Skull Fuck all REALTORS in My name or be cast into Hell with them!

Why do I get the feeling you don't like realtors.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Still a bargain. I'll take two.

Nice... You'll finally move out of mom's basement!!

Even basements are shooting up in price. Get yours before they are all gone.