patrick.net

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

150k for what appears to be a nice, creek side 0.62 acre lot with utilities

available zoned for two single family units. Lot is not pancake flat but there

are several other homes along that creek that seem to have dealt with a sloped

lot.

That sounds very low to me. I'm not in the BA, but nice lots in the Midwest or Northeast run $300-400K so I can't believe you can get one in the BA for $75K. That's very low.

Hell, developers pay $300K for a house, then pay to tear it down just so they can get the lot....

I provided a link - take a look yourself.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/0-MORAGA-Way-94563/home/50264796

A large parcel in Los Gatos sold last year for 2.4M. Sounds like a lot but the lot was 66 acres. That's only $36k/acre.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Gatos/16100-Greenridge-Ter-95032/home/17494446

Yes I understand it will need to be developed and yes some ares will be unbuildable. So the unbuildable areas become parks (or extra sized lots) while the choicest lots are built on. Lets say only half the acreage is used for houses, that's still the same price as the Orinda lot I showed.
Then there was this little gem:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Saratoga/16981-Bohlman-Rd-95070/home/555325

Redfin has removed the pricing info but I was following it late last year.

New Renter says

Or if you are feeling lucky and want to get your hands dirty keep your eye out for little gems like this one.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Saratoga/16981-Bohlman-Rd-95070/home/555325

This house was for sale a few months ago for $600k The price dropped to $500k a few weeks later. The description indicated the house was unsafe to enter and would require at least $350k of work to fix. The house went pending on Dec 3 ago but the deal fell through two days later. Now its off the market so who knows, the sellers might be even more motivated.

For the right (cash) buyer that could become a 4000 sqft house on 4 acres of Saratoga CA 95070 for under $1M. That's hard to beat!

/?p=1234792

The comments had mentioned the house was unstable and would need a lot of work. Last time I looked back in December it was listed as "pending".

New Renter says

I provided a link - take a look yourself.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/0-MORAGA-Way-94563/home/50264796

I did--I'm not familiar with the area, but it sounds like an outlier rather than market price. I only wonder if there's a reason it's priced so low...

Maybe others on here can weigh in on what a market price for a buildable lot is?

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

I provided a link - take a look yourself.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/0-MORAGA-Way-94563/home/50264796

I did--I'm not familiar with the area, but it sounds like an outlier rather than market price. I only wonder if there's a reason it's priced so low...

Maybe others on here can weigh in on what a market price for a buildable lot is?

Well here is a 1.6 acre hillside Orinda lot for $240k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/19-La-Encinal-94563/home/23349293

Best priced estate sized lot (1.6 acres) on this hillside hideaway w/ approved 3,457 sq. ft. 4 bed/5 bath home w/ living, dining & family rooms along w/ office & bonus room over 2 car garage & breezeway to main house in prestigous Orinda. Yearly Rd. Maint. Fee of $200.

Here's a smaller (0.40 acres) lot for $219k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/55-Oak-Rd-94563/home/39979772

Very sloped but that is not a dealbreaker for some as most buyers in SF and the mountains of SoCal can attest.

This Orinda lot has no address BUT its half an acre for $99k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Orinda/Undisclosed-address-94563/home/45458185

There are of course MUCH more expensive lots for sale, my only point is it is very possible to build a house for less than buying a comparable existing home. Yes its a huge PITA to build a house. Yes the number of buildable lots are limited.

There are advantages though. You get a BRAND NEW house built to all current codes the way YOU want*

You want a basement/dungeon? Sure!
You want a dome house or stone castle? If it floats your boat!
How about a five care garage with lift? You'd be stupid not to.

No termite damage, no dryrot, no asbestos, no leaky roofs, no questionable foundation, no ancient pipes or wiring.

*building code, CCRs, budget and spouse permitting

It sure seems like another bubble is about to burst.

Here is a very well researched article: http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html

Call it Crazy says

As DataQuick recently reported, the median price for a "Bay Area" home hit $548,500 in December, which is slightly down from November, but still up 23.9% from $442,750 a year earlier, the research firm said.

San Francisco prices are getting closer to levels reached in the 2006-2007 bubble when the median Bay Area price hit the $665,000-mark.

Looks undervalued to me. The median will easily approach $900,000 in just a few years.

hrhjuliet says

It sure seems like another bubble is about to burst.

Set a date, ballpark range...

Strategist says

Call it Crazy says

As DataQuick recently reported, the median price for a "Bay Area" home hit $548,500 in December, which is slightly down from November, but still up 23.9% from $442,750 a year earlier, the research firm said.

San Francisco prices are getting closer to levels reached in the 2006-2007 bubble when the median Bay Area price hit the $665,000-mark.

Looks undervalued to me. The median will easily approach $900,000 in just a few years.

Mad props for making Roberto look like a real estate bear!

I think it will level off next month, and many of the numbers that point to the leveling off will be down played in the media. I don't think a true downturn will happen until winter of next year. No one can possibly know, but this is my guess.

If your in the bottom half of that elite list, rather than taking $10 from each of the 3.5 B people to grow your wealth - wouldn't it make more sense to knock off a person in the top 10 and take their winnings?

seriously though. You can't get blood from a stone. Played out over an indefinite time span, they'd have to start turning on each other if the name of the game is perpetual wealth building.

It's all Obama's fault!!!

That's 20% that will vote according to how their bread is buttered.

Good job Obama.

Oh well, the GOP always has Gerrymandering.

CaptainShuddup says

That's 20% that will vote according to how their bread is buttered.

Good job Obama.

Oh well, the GOP always has Gerrymandering.

Hate to burst your bubble Cap'n, but you're wrong.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/the-gop-is-the-food-stamp-party/

"Despite Gingrich’s racial connotations, the majority of Americans who use food stamps are white, and they increasingly live in Republican areas"

Call it Crazy says

National Memo???? Really??? That's the best you can do??

They cited Bloomberg (and US Dept. of Ag data). Do you disagree with the data? Or do you just like to attack the source without providing anything in the way of facts or data that disputes the article.

These 20% of people on food stamps are also buying up the $1 million+ homes in the bay area. I see them at the open houses bidding up the price, sweetening their bid by throwing in a few thousand dollars in food stamps. Bastards, only if I didn't make so much money I could qualify for all this free stuff.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

These 20% of people on food stamps are also buying up the $1 million+ homes
in the bay area. I see them at the open houses bidding up the price, sweetening
their bid by throwing in a few thousand dollars in food stamps. Bastards, only
if I didn't make so much money I could qualify for all this free stuff.

I'd advise you to quit your job. Then you can qualify for all the free stuff you want. Win-win.

I'm not a fan of the bay area and I am happy to say that I have not contributed one cent to its over-priced real estate and never will. I don't even like to visit the area or travel through it, for the traffic, smog, and general crowding. I've been to SF and seen the dirty, littered streets and bums panhandling, and the $40 parking spaces. Anywhere there is air to breath is at least as valuable and most times much more. Its got to be hype that gets people to borrrow that much to live there. The attitude there seems to be, so you came here, now pay up and put up with all the bull, because it's the legendary bay area.

I hate the Bay Area, but this is where all my family still lives. My brother is blind, and it would be terrible to move him from the home and town he grew up in. Blind people get used to their surroundings and over years and years become so well established that they can get around pretty well if they are in a very familiar place. I feel trapped by this horrible area. Trapped by the prices, greed and ditzy rich sport moms I am made to interact with all day. I would move to Portland in a second. I loved the weather there. It wasn't that different from here, just less dry. The city was clean and the people were very friendly and interesting. The moms are not the manicure obsessed dance and sport moms of the valley. It's really neat, the moms have a mind and they actually use it! They also seem to care more about their community and less about if their kid just won aother meaningless plastic trophy. There is a lot more to do there too. Here, all you can do is eat out and get drunk, and that's not fun. We have some wonderful parks, but so does Oregon. The Bay Area is not my community of choice, but stuck just the same, unless I want to see my family once a year.

Hrhjuliet,

I was contemplating moving to Portland Or. Sounds like my kind of place. Are there areas/neighborhoods you would recommend moving a family with pre-teens and teens. Schools are important but I have heard Oregon has excellent schools.

jazz music says

The truth:

the total federal tax burden increased during the Reagan years, and most Americans paid more in taxes after Reagan than before. The "Reagan Recovery" was unremarkable. It looks great only contrasted against the dismal Reagan Recession

Hmmmm. Must have felt great too as Reagan captured 49 out of 50 states in his 2nd term. Only if you could go back in time and tell all those people they had no reason to be happy and content in the 80s.

To code writers,software engineers,etc.,the NSA,CIA,FBI,Search engines,Communication corps., Advertisers & a third grader in the most rural school know more about you than you know about yourself. They have your backdoor.
They already know you are an IT Genius. LMAO

Wow.
If stating the obvious makes someone 'LMAO', your old lady must be in stitches under the sheets...

HEY YOU says

To code writers,software engineers,etc.,the NSA,CIA,FBI,Search engines,Communication corps., Advertisers & a third grader in the most rural school know more about you than you know about yourself. They have your backdoor.

They already know you are an IT Genius. LMAO

Carolyn C says

Hrhjuliet,

I was contemplating moving to Portland Or. Sounds like my kind of place. Are there areas/neighborhoods you would recommend moving a family with pre-teens and teens. Schools are important but I have heard Oregon has excellent schools.

. Yes, the average schools there make our top schools look bad. The only concern I would have is catch up. My friend's daughter went through the sanctified Los Gatos school system and was completely unprepared for the Portland junior high she went to. She caught up, but they needed to get her a tutor. The best neighborhood by far is Goose Hollow, but it's more expensive. Brooklyn is a little bit more affordable and also a fun community for kids, same with Sellwood, but the activities are more outdoors and nature themed. Birdshill is lovely, but extremely expensive and a little snobby. West Linn and Lake Oswego are very inexpensive, but definitely a suburb feel, depends on what you are looking for. I danced for a professional ballet company there and I lived in the more metro area. I prefer a bit of city life, especially in an artistic city like Portland. If you love the arts, there is plenty to do and see.

SoftShell says

You are not a software engineer, thus have no qualifications to comment on this subject.

I was coding when nixon was president, when did you start? I still don't believe healthcare.gov has 10 to 20 times more code than Vista or Facebook and was developed in little over a year. What does all that code do? It's basically filling in a screen and sending it off. Since everyone know's I'm wrong how about proving it? Hint, anonomous comments are NOT proof.

Reagan was the endorsement whore and Nancy the BJ Queen.

They would have made great real estate agents.

Reagan would have been great in bullion scams, like Gordon Liddy and that creepy William Devane.

It's great when the sociophaths behind the scene can delegate the task of inspiring trust in the sucker sheep.

Smoke and buy gold, trust me, hack, cough, hack!

Its all unprovable as neither of you have source access.

When the capos are brought to justice, China will merely repossess SF, and lease it back to USA until 2050. It will then become a Hong Kong auxiliary protectorate.

"According to one specialist, the Web site contains about 500 million lines of software code. By comparison, a large bank’s computer system is typically about one-fifth that size."

That number got picked up widely:

http://www.alexmarchant.com/blog/2013/10/22/healthcare-dot-gov-lines-of-code-comparison.html

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/10/21/healthcare_gov_problems_why_5_million_lines_of_code_is_the_wrong_way_to.html

"the approximate 500 million lines of code reported on the site."

Here is an interesting analysis of possible reasons for the number, whether it is accurate or not.

Regarding the "Information is Beautiful" codebases graphic, I'm amazed by the statement that the "average" high end car has 100 million lines of code. By that metric, Healthcare.gov has fewer lines of code than a fast food drive-thru lane.

Small Cap Gold Stocks are up 20% in the past 30 days.

jazz music says

The "Reagan Recovery" was unremarkable. It looks great only contrasted against the dismal Reagan Recession – but it had nothing to do with Supply Side voodoo

more people were working and paid more in taxes.. as was the case with the kennedy tax cut... jobs boomed and so did tax revenues.

jazz music says

pathetic that we have to look back longingly on a criminal justice system that had some function against the powerful.

you prefer Mondale... oh thats rich! the reason you can look back is because
your not speaking russian...

jazz music says

How can it be that most Americans don't remember the Reagan administration for its corruption?

it must eat you up he was able to free half of europe from tyranny..

corruption ? , see the experts from Chicago regarding corruption.

Oh - no worries - UnitedHealth Group is "overseeing the entire operation" - the site is working as intended, maximizing revenues. The "tech surge" consulting fees are merely an appetizer. Remember, UnitedHealth is where Bill McGuire helped himself to $1 billion personally; that's their big expertise, if you want to line someone's pockets with $1 billion, they're the folks with experience.

"What we have revealed is a secret offshore holdings of families of the leaders of China," he said."

Leaders of China = Communist, not allowed in this country nor is their money... sounds like their cash, assets, property and financial interest will get confiscated. Its been done before and will be done again.

Least their in the BVI. Love that Bitter End Yacht club!

Thats right. If Mondale was elected he would have freed the captives in IRAN and met Gorbo in Iceland.

And if the Wright Brothers did not build and fly a plane in Kitty Hawk in 1903, the Aircraft Mechanics Union would have!

But wait, according to Lawyer 1, the Wright Brothers did not build that!

And yet Reagan still far more than Clinton and Obama could ever do...

jazz music says

third-party aid for the Nicaraguan contras.

have you heard the news... Nicaragua is turning into a Dictatorship !
Sandinista Danial Ortega are looking to become Dictator for life scrapping peace and democracy.

Guess Reagan got his number right long long ago...

Call it Crazy says

The most overvalued housing market in America (Bay Area)

its actually cheaper to live in SoCal.. how about that !

I always thought Reagan did a good job but according to Stockman and Rothbard he did not. Not regarding spending, deficit reduction, regulation, or even tax reduction because of bracket creep and a higher rate for SS. Worst of all Rothbard said Reagan was really a Keynesian which is what Krugman claims.

http://mises.org/daily/1544

So why did the economy do as well as it did? Don't know but I would guess demographics and dropping the gold standard which allowed for inflation in reality borrowing money from holders of the reserve currency of the world.

Reagan did consider putting us back on the gold standard and dismissed the idea.

bottom line: if you write most of the code yourself, the line number will be minimized.
if you rely on third party software packages to augment your base code your line count will rise exponentially.