patrick.net

I saw the piece when it aired on Sunday. I turned to my wife and said "why didn't at some point, consider expanding their job search to beyond their local area?"

Perhaps they did, perhaps it didn't help, but certainly, you hit a point where you need to expand your focus beyond your comfort zone. Easier said than done, to be sure, but moving to a lower cost area has to be on the table as a potential option.

If everyone saves like crazy, we will never get out of this recession.

Someone has to spend like crazy to boost the economy.

Very interesting 60Min picked silicon valley of all places.

What can one say what hasnt been said before?

Silicon Valley is a highly deflationary industry, high home prices contribute to job losses, most experienced workers will get termed earlier than a younger less experienced worker, SV is not immune to downturns, etc etc etc. Sadly many believed the myths than the hard cold reality.

zzyzzx says

CaffeineAddict says
Yikes. Lots of sad stories.
The guy who made 200k+/yr, in his early 50s it looks like, but ate through all their savings AND retirement savings in 2 yrs 3 months?
I was wondering about that one myself. I mean, when you are in your early 50’s you should probably already have enpugh cash stashed to live off of for at least 15 years.

More likely many today didnt see the SV recession back in the early 90s was like. Had you seen/lived throught the early 90s recession in SV you would have been a huge net saver since and you would not have overpaid and overborrowed for a home.

For the guy in the 60min, he most likely used his savings as downpayment on a $800-1M home in Palo Alto. There you go ! Rich tech executive!

Second, at 200K, so much for the myth these people over 50 are swimming in wealth and ready to pick up 2-3 homes when prices bottom.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

I saw the piece when it aired on Sunday. I turned to my wife and said “why didn’t at some point, consider expanding their job search to beyond their local area?”

Tech industry is a shrinking mature industry. 315 cos in 1994, 417 in 2000, down to 240 (and falling) in 2009. If we start to go down to 175, it will really start to hit home for many.

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2010/02/17/vanishing-public-companies-lead-to-the-incredible-shrinking-silicon-valley/

One of the most significant trends I’ve been watching over the past decade is the dramatic drop in public companies in Silicon Valley. Naturally, that number was artificially inflated during the dot-com bubble when it reached 417 in 2000. For our purposes, Silicon Valley includes San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and the southern half of Alameda County.

That’s not just less than the dot-com era, that’s well below the 315 public companies the valley had in 1994 when the Mercury News started keeping track.

How much of that tech shrinkage is consolidation though? I for example am sad watching Sun disappear into the Oracle behemoth.

As I am too, i rather have more diverse companies each focusing in their market niech, which employ seperate managment who are experts in such industries.

When it comes to Oracle there were lots of consolidations... hum! will Oracle at some time be "too big to fail".

For the small start ups, they are falling/failing very quickly! Crap! i really hate that!

CaffeineAddict says

Who’s going to buy it if so many people are unemployed?
The people who ARE employed are either 1) too scared to buy because they’re worried they’ll be unemployed 2) won’t buy at the price that the sellers expect

3) there isnt that much of a demand for homes in SV to begin with. With half as many employers than in 2000, and fewer than in 1994, and with many SV jobs outside the region, why would you see more demand in SV?

I had the 'pleasure' of driving 101 around 6pm today. I think it has been 3 years since I last had to endure this. If things continue to go well, I won't do it again until 2013.

Sure did not look like 'mass unemployment' to me.

thomas.wong1986 says

With half as many employers than in 2000, and fewer than in 1994, and with many SV jobs outside the region, why would you see more demand in SV?

Number of employers shrinking? Source for that statement? And since the mergers were mentioned above, how about the number of positions?

ptiemann says

thomas.wong1986 says
With half as many employers than in 2000, and fewer than in 1994, and with many SV jobs outside the region, why would you see more demand in SV?
Number of employers shrinking? Source for that statement? And since the mergers were mentioned above, how about the number of positions?

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2010/02/17/vanishing-public-companies-lead-to-the-incredible-shrinking-silicon-valley/

Mergers/Consolidations of positions... dont kid yourself... acquiring companies take a hacket job on positions of target company. I done several myself and many fall into typical step by step process ending in a few months.

Do you expect many of the acquiring companies (like Oracle) to take on former high paid CEOs. CFOs. and VPs of Target companies.... Why would they want to ?

-Top and mid managers.. CEO/CFO/Vps of Sales, Marketing, GA and Engineering first to go along with level managers/directors since these positions are already covered.
-Accounting/HR/IT disappear after final deal is closed with financial data and HR data is transfered to aquired company.
-Marketing and Sales force (out in the field). Customer list/contact info along with sales history is transfered to aquiring company sales force.
-Engineering
Sustained engineering is left open while most of on going Research is canned.

Thats pretty much it in a nut shell...

2nd parties to suffer are the Audit and Law firms who lose a client. Since many have vanished they have trimmed their staffing since demand is no longer there.

ptiemann says

Sure did not look like ‘mass unemployment’ to me.

Ask Mayor Reed, 60min didnt air this part...

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6987749n&tag=contentBody;housing

thomas.wong1986 says

ptiemann says

thomas.wong1986 says
With half as many employers than in 2000, and fewer than in 1994, and with many SV jobs outside the region, why would you see more demand in SV?
Number of employers shrinking? Source for that statement? And since the mergers were mentioned above, how about the number of positions?

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2010/02/17/vanishing-public-companies-lead-to-the-incredible-shrinking-silicon-valley/

For the record, the article refers only to PUBLIC companies.

RayAmerica says

... EVERYONE on welfare... .... too lazy to find work ....

Be my guest and copy and paste anything that is even remotely close to that.

Done, any more requests? :) this is pretty much the same thing the media does, anything you say can be edited to take it out of context and make you look bad.

tatupu70 says

For the record, the article refers only to PUBLIC companies.

Tatupu, get over yourself and smell the coffee!

thomas.wong1986 says

tatupu70 says

For the record, the article refers only to PUBLIC companies.

Tatupu, get over yourself and smell the coffee!

I'm not a big coffee guy. Smelling co-workers coffee breath turns my stomach...

thunderlips11 says

This is the End Game of a Financial-dominated economy. The banks are always getting their grey area regulatory violations post ex facto legalized, their industry-wide home title cartel called MERS will be legalized, they were given bailouts, and allowed to walk away from their obligations to MBS Investors by dumping it on the Fed, financed with taxpayer debt.

Now other classes of society are saying, “If it’s good enough for them, it’s good enough for me, I ain’t going to be the sucker left holding the bag.” The Rule of Law was never perfect in this country, but now it’s starting to be tossed out the window.

It is a total rotting of the integrity of our populace. People all the time demonize unsavory businesses and their dealings. Now they increasingly seek that sort of back-stabbing opportunity. The sad part is how they try to justify it: "It's what's right for my family's future," or "It doesn't make financial sense to do otherwise." Of course, the lesson taught to their children is to not honor debt and live like a pick-pocket gypsy. Their considerations for what makes financial sense now didn't exist when they made the decision to buy (such as, own versus rent, and does this market make sense). They have completely abdicated themselves of any sense of personal responsibility.

It reminds me of the movie Casino when Joe Pesci is playing Black Jack. He didn't like the card he was dealt so he'd throw it in the dealer's face and say "fuck you, hit me again". That is what these strategic defaulters are. They want mulligans on their bad bets.

klarek says

They want mulligans on their bad bets.

This is not a cancer from below, it "trickled down" from above. An entire generation worshipped this fictional villain:

"One of the most significant trends I’ve been watching over the past decade is the dramatic drop in public companies in Silicon Valley. Naturally, that number was artificially inflated during the dot-com bubble when it reached 417 in 2000. For our purposes, Silicon Valley includes San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and the southern half of Alameda County.
But the number of public companies has dropped for nine straight years now. Even when IPOs briefly reappeared in 2006 and 2007, they weren’t enough to overcome the net loss of public companies through acquisitions or bankruptcy.
In 2008, the number had fallen to 261. We just updated our records and the latest figure is 241.
That’s not just less than the dot-com era, that’s well below the 315 public companies the valley had in 1994 when the Mercury News started keeping track."

Thomas, In the end, whether a public goes public or not is a financing choice. So without proper context, the information is misleading.

Back then any B to B, B to C and any Internet company were worth far more than they really are, making the choice to go public easy. R&D, life science research and semi conductors are capital extensive thus the need to go public is always a desired option along with private financing. Now, with SOX, compliance fees, srutiny and selling more company for less money, and cheap alternative financing, the option to go public is not desirable.

Which means that the # of public company is not as significant as you think, just consider below:

Here are some companies on top of my head in SF/SV that are started recently and are not public along with where they stand with their public comparables.

Zynga/Bigfoot/Kabam > Electronic Arts
Solyndra/Nanosolar/Solar City > Sunpower
Facebook > Matter of time before it is more valuable than Yahoo.
Linkedin > Monster international
Barrcuda Networks/Palo Alto networks
Craigslist/Yelp/redfin/twitter/Stubhub
eMeter/Silversprings

Specifically, Zynga went from 400 employees to 1,200 employees in one year amid the great recession. Then there are the mainstays like Bethel, Levis', Lucas Film, Wilbur Ellis that will never go public.

In 2000, my old firm did about 300M in business in SFBA, dropped to around 200M in 2002/2003 but is doing about 400M now, so no the economy is not contracting. Revenues are up about 8% FY2009. (my spouse is still there)

SF ace says

Now, with SOX, compliance fees, srutiny and selling more company for less money, and cheap alternative financing, the option to go public is not desirable.

Being a private company such a family owned Levis and Bechtel, does not remove proper internal control (SOX) requirements. All levels of managment are atune to the internal process, checks and balances, and any discrepencies from the norm. Else you welcome fraud very easily.

How exactly are you measuring Facebook value where revenue at a mear $150M, 200M at best, compared to Yahoo's 5.5-6B of revenue ? Hint: a typical public company with 500 employees has 10M of cash burn/opx each quarter. 120-150M .. they just broke even this year! It should be clear MSFT inflated investment for 1% was "sweet poison" injected into FB making further return on investments impossible or M&A an expensive proposition. The same is true with Zyanga. They are just toy companies. You later list "Family owned" companies which have no external investors and no need to have an exit plan.

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.
step 2 end NAFTA
step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally
step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers
setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.

step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply
step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

step 2 end NAFTA

step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally

step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers

setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply

step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

..and what should we do about our beloved politicians,bankers and wall st. execs?

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.
step 2 end NAFTA
step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally
step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers
setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply
step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Sounds like a great plan to me.

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

While I agree with you, I think it's important to realize that if we were to ever shutdown the border completely tight (you can dream, right), we would then need a Guest Worker program.

We Americans are simply not willing to do a lot of the hard manual labor that they do harvesting crops, as was documented in this recent NPR report at the Apple Orchards in Washington state: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130840422

There's a lot of unfilled positions picking apples that pay around $120 per day, but the unemployed American 99'ers in the surrounding towns and cities aren't interested since it's too hard to do...they'd rather sit around collecting less by doing nothing from the unemployment insurance.

Bottom line is that it's impossible to pay them more than $120 per day to pick apples, and if it takes $240 per day to get Americans interested in doing this labor intensive, back-breaking work, then the Apple growers in Washington won't be able to compete with Chilean or Chinese apple growers.

we would then need a Guest Worker program.
You mean like this one. If you can't meet the minimal standards of the H2-A program, perhaps we should be eating apples from overseas...

thunderlips11 says

Then Tariff Chilean and Chinese Apples

Why allow Chilean and Chinese Apples to enter the US border? It comes down to chauvinism. How many Americans will be ready to pay 2 to 3 times the current apple price?

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.
step 2 end NAFTA
step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally
step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers
setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply
step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

You got my vote Bab33, especially building new Nukes!

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

step 2 end NAFTA

step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally

step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers

setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply

step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Some sounds OK, some not.
Step1. OK.
Step2. You do know everything in US in these days is either made in China or Mexico, right?
Step3. Nah. We're broke. Don't have money for their tickets. I suggest open our border at specific place at specific date, so that they can either walk thru or swim their way back.
Step4. More illegals do document part right, forged of course, thanks to crook lawyers.
Step5. Get rid of sissy border patrol all together, and put the army instead. Let them know the army is there and those who cross the border will get shot rather than being chased or get caught.
Step6. This I can't be sure.
Step7. LOL. Only when they got hefty pension and fat belly.

Patrick,

I saw a video of you online the other day-- the one on Nightline. What the ... I was expecting to see the kid in the red shirt walking around!

Mark_LA says

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

While I agree with you, I think it’s important to realize that if we were to ever shutdown the border completely tight (you can dream, right), we would then need a Guest Worker program.
We Americans are simply not willing to do a lot of the hard manual labor that they do harvesting crops, as was documented in this recent NPR report at the Apple Orchards in Washington state: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130840422
There’s a lot of unfilled positions picking apples that pay around $120 per day, but the unemployed American 99′ers in the surrounding towns and cities aren’t interested since it’s too hard to do…they’d rather sit around collecting less by doing nothing from the unemployment insurance.
Bottom line is that it’s impossible to pay them more than $120 per day to pick apples, and if it takes $240 per day to get Americans interested in doing this labor intensive, back-breaking work, then the Apple growers in Washington won’t be able to compete with Chilean or Chinese apple growers.

Then the real problems are our generous unemployment and welfare benefits. $120 day is more than a lot of people make.

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

step 2 end NAFTA

step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally

step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers

setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply

step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Have you ever actually been to the southwest? The boarder is 2000 miles of almost unpopulated desert. What practical suggestions would you have to actually close it "TIGHT"? You can drive the 500 miles from El Paso to Del Rio and see maybe 5 other cars on the road once you leave I10, how do you get enough people into the area to actually patrol that?

bob2356 says

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.
step 2 end NAFTA
step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally
step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers
setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply
step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Have you ever actually been to the southwest? The boarder is 2000 miles of almost unpopulated desert. What practical suggestions would you have to actually close it “TIGHT”? You can drive the 500 miles from El Paso to Del Rio and see maybe 5 other cars on the road once you leave I10, how do you get enough people into the area to actually patrol that?

I'm sure enough helicopter gunships with enough ammo on board will do the trick. Lots of land mines would help too. Supposedly one could not cross the border during WW2. It's just a matter of actually trying, as opposed to trying half haeartly as we currently do.

While I felt sorry for some people (i.e. the Target guy), I didn't feel sorry for most of them. I may sound harsh or judgmental to some, but the old-fashioned advice from my depression era-raised parents is as true now as it was then: 'save for a rainy day'.

The woman that has been living in her house since 1982 - why isn't her house paid by now? She has had 28 years to pay it off. She was obviously living above her means, having tapped more than once into her equity.

The woman collecting recyclables - she admitted being a shopaholic. She is lucky her elderly mother can bail her out. The mother had probably saved all her life.

The boomer couple (late forties, early fifties) about to lose their double garage house - why on earth would somebody need a double garage in California? One could make do without a garage in Maine, let alone in California. He was making $200,000 a year, more than enough to have paid his house and have a lot of money put aside. Plus, I question his move to a duct business. Looks like his layout was too much. Were it not for their 'sense of entitlement', they probably could have been OK if they had purchased a smaller bungalow with no garage in a not-so-opulent neighbourhood and save their money. Nothing is more depressing than going backwards, after having lived in the fast lane.

Could be Obama's or Dubya's fault, but people have to take responsibility for their own situation. Nobody put a gun on their head to tap into their home equity or buying too much house. Good times don't last forever. There is no better time for saving than when the money is coming in.

zzyzzx says

bob2356 says

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.
step 2 end NAFTA
step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally
step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers
setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.
step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply
step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Have you ever actually been to the southwest? The boarder is 2000 miles of almost unpopulated desert. What practical suggestions would you have to actually close it “TIGHT”? You can drive the 500 miles from El Paso to Del Rio and see maybe 5 other cars on the road once you leave I10, how do you get enough people into the area to actually patrol that?

I’m sure enough helicopter gunships with enough ammo on board will do the trick. Lots of land mines would help too. Supposedly one could not cross the border during WW2. It’s just a matter of actually trying, as opposed to trying half haeartly as we currently do.

100% correct. The invasion of America by people, goods, drugs, whatever, is being ALLOWED. We all know that if Pelosi were directly effected by waves and waves of invaders and their procreation abilities, or the gangs and drugs that liberal (judges, politicos, voters, ect) have fostered, or the tons and tons of knock-off goods .... we all know that if Pelosi or Bush or any politico had to live with the crap they ALLOW, then this stuff would be stopped.

By the way, you did read about the chopped-off head in Arizona, right? They are busy doing the work that Americans refuse to do.

My own philosophy is Voltaire's: "I disagree strongly with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

All I ask is that people be polite.

This is a conservative forum?

Who is "et al"?

A slight revision: Giants win in 5

zzyzzx says

bob2356 says

Bap33 says

step 1, close the mexican border .. tight.

step 2 end NAFTA

step 3 offer free bus/plane rides back home to anyone living here illegally

step 4 jail/fine any business with undoc-ed workers

setp 5 begin building a true border security system and put people to work on it, or in a service position that supports the work force (cooking, cleaning, making uniforms, child care, ect), instead of welfare. Build some nuke power plants too. Build some dams too. Just a few good projects that require lots and lots of support and labor.

step 6, drill for oil on American soil. Re-fill the our emergency supply

step 7, place in jail everyone that is part of ACLU (ok, this does not make many jobs, but it sure cuts out some stupid crap)

Have you ever actually been to the southwest? The boarder is 2000 miles of almost unpopulated desert. What practical suggestions would you have to actually close it “TIGHT”? You can drive the 500 miles from El Paso to Del Rio and see maybe 5 other cars on the road once you leave I10, how do you get enough people into the area to actually patrol that?

I’m sure enough helicopter gunships with enough ammo on board will do the trick. Lots of land mines would help too. Supposedly one could not cross the border during WW2. It’s just a matter of actually trying, as opposed to trying half haeartly as we currently do.

I hope this is humor. If not look up the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. If you live here you should at least make some sort of token effort to know how the government works. That applies to you too bap33. In deference to Rambo and Rambo33, my original question stands. Even if the military could legally patrol the border, how as a practical matter could you patrol 2000 miles of empty desert?

bob2356 says

Even if the military could legally patrol the border, how as a practical matter could you patrol 2000 miles of empty desert?

What do you mean by "legally could" ? Our military, as with any other military around the world is expected to secure national borders, by land, sea and air.

You can start by actually building a physical wall. Crap how many millions of miles of railroad, interstate highway, and all other roads, plus billions of ton in brick and concrete structures have been built over the years. A 2000 mile 10 ft hi 4 ft thick is childs play in comparison.