patrick.net

Call it Crazy says

Proof??

Call it Crazy says

Ventura, Calif. (-20.8%).

I work in Ventura, California. We always comment on the disproportionate number of bag/homeless people in the area, more so than some parts of Los Angeles County.

We had some drizzle a few weeks ago and the temperature did deviate +/- 5 degrees from the normal 72 degrees in the year round beach climate of the area.

Hmm, what could cause a 20% drop in sales?

Agreed.

Call it Crazy says

(The "low inventory" fault was disproven by the Redfin data above).

Call it Crazy says

According to Redfin Los Angeles agent Eric Tan, “This time last year, sellers could name their price and still get 20 to 30 offers. This year, even homes that are priced competitively are only seeing two to three offers come in, often at or below list price. Pricing appropriately is crucial.”

Wow--sellers are now ONLY getting 2-3 offers at list price now? What ever will they do?

Homeboy says

Couldn't smoke incapacitate the crew without immediately destroying the plane? The guy who wrote the article seems to think it's possible.

Usually not. Generally speaking, in most aviation incidents involving a fire, the airframe starts disintegrating before the pilots die. Can it happen another way? Possibly, but this makes it less likely.

The other thing I was thinking about is that it's not really standard procedure to go to 45,000 feet (again, strong possibility that it's bad data in the first place) to put out a fire. You have checklists for fires, and you'd follow them. Also, there's nothing stopping you from depressurizing at 35,000 feet instead of an altitude the plane isn't certified for if you actually need to depressurize. There's actually a report on how depressurization doesn't necessarily help put out fires and possibly could have other consequences:

http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/2010Conference/files/Cargo_Fire/HillDepressurizationFreighter/HillDepressurizationFreighterPres.pdf

By the way, I was re-reading the part of his article on SR 111. He gets a lot of stuff wrong factually. For example, it was an MD-11, obviously, (not a DC-10) and I'm pretty sure the comms and transponders were working until right before the CVR and FDR cut off, so there's no evidence that they pulled breakers for them on that flight. And note that the first officer was likely still alive just before the plane crashed.

I suspect there are a few other factual mistakes too -- I read somewhere that he got the facts regarding the Air Canada flight wrong too.

Even if prices of current listings pull back 10-20% this summer... They still will be priced higher than the 2011 lows. A 10-20% haircut this summer.. with the current ultra-low inventory.. We will have another hard bounce upward. So any drop in prices will see an equal rebound back up.. just like in 2011.

The only thing to stop this is if rental prices collapse. Until then.. home prices have a hard bottom just above rental parity... and will bounce off it repeatedly.

Two different RE markets in USA now.

East Coast - Inventory up, prices decline.
West Coast - Inventory slightly up, prices steady to slightly up.

Given so many wealthy techies in BA/ booming tech industry/ many imminent IPOs (e.g. Alibaba + strong stock markets), hard to believe prices would decline in BA. In terms of absolute numbers, most of the mainland Chinese went to LA and NY (which is quoted by Zero Hedge), not many come to BA. Frankly, I see a fair amount Indians, caucasian East Coasters, Europeans and middle Eastern folks in open houses. That is to say, even in California, two markets are emerging, SFBA/Portland/Seattle and southern California.

The title of the article claims that RE in "California" is weakening but cites only RE in "Southern California". This type of conclusion is misleading as California is a big State! bigger than many nations. In fact, SFBA/ Portland/ Seattle RE is comparatively more healthy than Southern California. And in SFBA, Fortress is much stronger than other cities.

Flight swallowed by a black hole:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnns-don-lemon-is-it-preposterous-to-think-a-black-hole-caused-flight-370-to-go-missing/

I would not put it past Vladimir to be behing the "accident" - he could have easily dispatched FSB homies to take care of this or hired some "assets" of foreign descent to get this done. Why would he do this? So that foreign media news coverage is focused on this 24/7 which obviously takes away from coverage of ukraine/crimea.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Wednesday, March 19, 2014 __ Level is 103.3

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

CIC, let's just talk about Santa Clara county , what do you think about the inventory over here ? I'm still seeing people flocking to the open houses.

corntrollio says

I'm pretty sure the comms and transponders were working until right before the CVR and FDR cut off, so there's no evidence that they pulled breakers for them on that flight.

Strange. He seems sure that they did, and you seem "pretty sure" that they didn't. I don't know how to account for that discrepancy. I can't imagine what motivation the guy would have to just make something like that up. There's a Wikipedia article on the Swissair crash that says "the crew shut off the power supply in the cabin". Could that be what he was referring to? Would that cause the transponder to stop functioning?

And it's working.

Look at the CNN webpage for the past week. The airliner gets 72 point font at top of page, while Crimea is 2nd billing mixed in with other shit....

Only 2 russkies and one Ukrainian on that flight have not passed the background checks at this point...
Very strange....

dublin hillz says

I would not put it past Vladimir to be behing the "accident" - he could have easily dispatched FSB homies to take care of this or hired some "assets" of foreign descent to get this done. Why would he do this? So that foreign media news coverage is focused on this 24/7 which obviously takes away from coverage of ukraine/crimea.

Homeboy says

He seems sure that they did

Based on what though, his say-so?:

http://books.google.com/books?id=_RjpAQAAQBAJ&lpg=PA64&ots=myHbK7p3sW&dq=sr%20111%20transponder&pg=PA64#v=onepage&q&f=false

This book about the crash doesn't mention anything about the transponder being intentionally shut off. It says that ATC thought it might have been shut off because that's what you typically do on a military plane, according to this book, but there's nothing in here that says it was shut off or that other comms were shut down.

http://books.google.com/books?id=_RjpAQAAQBAJ&lpg=PA64&ots=myHbK7p3sW&dq=sr%20111%20transponder&pg=PA210#v=snippet&q=transponder&f=false

If you search through the book for "transponder," you can see that the transponder did briefly disappear when ADC-1 went offline, but the transponder came back up when they switched it to ADC-2.

I believe the power supply you're referring to might be the in-flight entertainment.

Wishful thinking by someone :) .....houses will always be in high demand in places where you have jobs . This has been the norm from centuries .

Why bother when we can go ask NoRack Maddow over at
http://www.msnbc.com/
They got it frontpage also....

sbh says

SoftShell says

Look at the CNN webpage for the past week. The airliner gets 72 point font at top of page, while Crimea is 2nd billing mixed in with other shit....

Well, yeah. Go to Faux Noise if you want to make a big deal out of Crimea

It doesn't matter if they show up to the open houses, what matters is the same houses have been on the market since September and haven't moved. I see the same listings come back as brand new listings over and over again, but in reality it's just the same old house priced too high.

I've seen some very high end homes move in areas that surround Palo Alto, but not much action outside of that. My cousin who was here last weekend looking for a home said that the open houses in Palo Alto and Mountain View were well-attended, but the outer areas in SC county seemed to be slow, and the interest was very lukewarm. She felt there was far more interest in Santa Clarita were she lives.

Selling now is a good move. Buying in this market is for fools.

Please do not insult President Carter. I'd like to see a list of his positive and negative acts as President side by side with ANY of the last few presidents. Why vilify him?

Sometimes I am suspicious that the majority of people's opinion on Carter is based on the media version of him, and not on his voting record.

BTW, I think a little moral scolding would do the world some good. I am getting a little tired of the cult of proud sociapaths running the planet.

hrhjuliet says

Sometimes I am suspicious that the majority of people's opinion on Carter is based on the media version of him, and not on his voting record.

Agreed -- he's the one who got the hostages free, after all.

I have to live in the Valley for a few very legitimate reasons, or I would put my house on the market today. I'm trapped by family responsibility, which includes ageing family and a blind brother, plus I own a local thriving business that isn't the kind you can move, since it's based in almost 100% goodwill, and my husband is invested where he is working.

hrhjuliet says

BTW, I think a little moral scolding would do the world some good. I am getting a little tired of the cult of proud sociapaths running the planet.

But they have such glib, dismissive retorts when you confront them!

Renting is a good idea.

In other words, msnbc frontlining Crimea makes your comment below look like something from a 2nd grader on a.d.d. meds...

sbh says

SoftShell says

Look at the CNN webpage for the past week. The airliner gets 72 point font at top of page, while Crimea is 2nd billing mixed in with other shit....

Well, yeah. Go to Faux Noise if you want to make a big deal out of Crimea.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Why is Obama fucking Putin in the ass on a horse?

Must have mistaken him for Fred Phelps.

Page ii of the report:

During FY 2013, increased receipts and decreased outlays combined to reduce the budget deficit by $409 billion (37.6 percent) to $680 billion.

Nice pretty charts that you pulled, but it doesn't prove the point.

Call it Crazy says

Apparently, you didn't make it to the second...

You and the uninformed person at the link you sent aren't differentiating between "net operating cost" and "budget deficit." Look at Table 3 in page 7 and also page 7 generally.

Call it Crazy says

the GAO’s more accurate accounting shows a total government cost of $3.8 trillion

In addition, that $3.8 trillion dollar amount you quoted is neither gross cost nor net cost -- I'm not entirely sure what it's supposed to be. On page 4:

The Government’s gross costs increased by 2.5 percent to $3.9 trillion. Deducting $415.5 billion in revenues earned for goods and services provided to the public (e.g., Medicare premiums, national park entry fees, and postal service fees) and adding $131.2 billion in losses from changes in assumptions (e.g., interest rates, inflation, disability claims rates) shows that the Government’s net cost decreased by $157.7 billion (4.1 percent) to $3.7 trillion during FY 2013.

Maybe you can explain where that $3.8 trillion number comes from?

corntrollio says

This book about the crash doesn't mention anything about the transponder being intentionally shut off. It says that ATC thought it might have been shut off because that's what you typically do on a military plane, according to this book, but there's nothing in here that says it was shut off or that other comms were shut down.

But I find multiple references to the crew turning off the busses, and this pilot says that if you turn off all the busses, you will disable communications and transponders. Is that not true? Are those systems not connected to any of the busses?

Conditions in the cockpit deteriorated as the pilots were following the emergency checklist for smoke. The checklist required the pilots to turn off the cabin electrical busses, which are connected to (among other circuits) the air recirculation fans above the cabin ceiling.

http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/magazine/2003/Aug2003_Swissair111.htm

Again, the theory isn't that they desired to turn off the transponder per se, but that they would do so in the process of determining which system was on fire, right?

Homeboy says

But I find multiple references to the crew turning off the busses, and this pilot says that if you turn off all the busses, you will disable communications and transponders. Is that not true? Are those systems not connected to any of the busses?

I think he is being a little too general when saying "busses." It really depends on how the wiring is set up.

The transponder has a combination of controls that affect it on a 777 -- I believe you turn a rotary knob for certain modes, and you can key in things for other modes (e.g. to change the squawk).

For the ACARS system, I believe you have to go into the front EE bay in order to disable it, but not entirely sure.

You'd have to have a checklist and/or wiring diagram to be absolutely sure, but it makes sense to not put everything on the main circuit. For example, it'd make more sense to have to intentionally disable comms or transponders, as opposed to having a master switch. For example, I doubt the *cabin* electrical affects the cargo hold, but that may be something else that's on the checklist. They may very well have done so on SR 111, but the source of the fire was fairly obvious on that flight -- wasn't coming from the transponder area.

The point I'm making is that this guy asserted that the comms and transponder on SR 111 were off because the pilots turned them off, but the pilots would have turned them back on as soon as they figured out they weren't causing the problem. If they were off at the time of the crash, it wasn't because the pilots had specifically disabled them, as is the suggestion for MH 370. If they were off at the time of the crash, it's because the fire disabled them.

I dunno...lets ask her!

sbh says

But the important thing is: what does Palin think this says about Putin?

Thats true...when she was normal she had one the commies couldn't stand....
Once they laid their eggs, the old apple went byebye...

sbh says

It's clearly a criminal liberal plot to divert attention from Maddow's adam's apple.

I can only vouch for my area and the houses go pending immediately after first open house. This is 95124 bordering LG.
I myself would love some slow down but that's not reality.

jojo says

cloud15 says

Wishful thinking by someone :) .....houses will always be in high demand in places where you have jobs . This has been the norm from centuries .

It's not wishful thinking. I'm not looking to buy anything. Do you have any constructive comments about the article?

SFBA is different. Free money rains here , look at the valuation of FB, nflx, whatsApp, LinkedIn . It all trickles down to employee level too.

jojo says

cloud15 says

SFBA is different. Free money rains here , look at the valuation of FB, nflx, whatsApp, LinkedIn . It all trickles down to employee level too.

I can tell you from where I sit people are looking at the whatsapp deal as an indicator of peak insanity. I wouldn't make any big bets on things continuing like that.

I agree with you , it's all insane. I said the same thing when Instagram was and I thought that we are in Tech Bubble 2.0 but it has been continuing.Not sure when would it bust though .

Like they say, something gotta give.

hrhjuliet says

Please do not insult President Carter. I'd like to see a list of his positive and negative acts as President side by side with ANY of the last few presidents. Why vilify him?

Sometimes I am suspicious that the majority of people's opinion on Carter is based on the media version of him, and not on his voting record.

Still waiting on the comparison list.

I am an optimist. I like to think of Carter as a one term Obama rather than Obama as a two term Carter, that's slightly less depressing.

corntrollio says

I think he is being a little too general when saying "busses." It really depends on how the wiring is set up.

Hmmm....still trying to understand this. My question was, if you turn off all the busses, would you cut power to the transponders, rendering them inoperative? The author seems to believe that is a distinct possibility. How is that "too general"?

corntrollio says

The transponder has a combination of controls that affect it on a 777 -- I believe you turn a rotary knob for certain modes, and you can key in things for other modes (e.g. to change the squawk).

O.K., maybe I'm still not understanding this. I'm thinking turning off the busses would be somewhat similar to turning off circuit breakers in your house - it would cut all power to that circuit, right? So what the controls do would be irrelevant, wouldn't it? If I turn off the circuit breaker that supplies power to my living room, my television set would turn off. Whatever buttons there are on my T.V. would have nothing to do with it, right?

corntrollio says

They may very well have done so on SR 111, but the source of the fire was fairly obvious on that flight -- wasn't coming from the transponder area.

I think I get what you're saying here, but isn't the recommended procedure to shut off ALL the busses, then restore them one by one? And why would we assume that the crew on the Malaysia flight would know where the fire was, assuming there was a fire?

corntrollio says

The point I'm making is that this guy asserted that the comms and transponder on SR 111 were off because the pilots turned them off, but the pilots would have turned them back on as soon as they figured out they weren't causing the problem. If they were off at the time of the crash, it wasn't because the pilots had specifically disabled them, as is the suggestion for MH 370. If they were off at the time of the crash, it's because the fire disabled them.

Hmmm....did he say they were off at the time of the crash? I think all he said was, "Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses." That's not too clear. He doesn't really indicate if they stayed off or were switched back on. But what he's saying might have happened on the Malaysia flight was that they switched off the power and never GOT the chance to switch it back on because they were incapacitated by the smoke.

I definitely see your point, though. It doesn't read as a well-researched report, but rather as a pilot just spitballing ideas about what might have happened, which I think is what he was doing. Still, it makes more sense to me than some of the convoluted theories about terrorism or pilot suicide.