patrick.net

Think about that...

OK. done.

Did you have a point?

44508

Strategist 2014 Mar 25, 2:52am

Strategist says

I like your last sentence.

Wouldn't a depression be worse, and more QE bad?

Just imagine the distortions that would take place if the worlds largest economy went into a depression. Everyone would start blaming Obama and the Feds for not proceeding with further QE's.

A depression is the worst case scenario, and we must not let it happen regardless of cost.

Currency crisis will destroy the petrodollar, destroy United States influence in the world, and unleash global instability with military conflict in various parts of the world. Removing QE is a much better choice.

We won't have a currency crisis because other countries will be even worse off. If anything the dollar will appreciate.

44509 exfatguy 2014 Mar 25, 2:58am

exfatguy says

It's not that housing can't crash, it's that they won't let it. Big difference.

I agree. It will be a managed drop. That's why Yellen is talking out of four sides of her mouth.

It won't even drop at all.

Americans are very proud of their equity. Take that away, and they have nothing to feel good about.

There are only two ways to kick-start another American revolution: Close Wal-Mart, and let housing prices drop to where they should be.

The Government isn't stupid.

44510

Strategist 2014 Mar 25, 3:00am

Strategist says

We won't have a currency crisis because other countries will be even worse off. If anything the dollar will appreciate.

That is predicated on the illusion of US dollar stability (petrodollar supremacy). Even the thought of people questioning this arrangement scares the crap out of central bankers... which is why they are moving doing things now. They can't even let this idea enter people's minds...

The dollar and America are a safe haven, and that is not changing any time soon.

44511

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 3:02am

Refinancing is the only reason people submit applications...

And that would be another fine example of a strawman argument.

Not only am I not arguing that refinancing is the ONLY reason people submit applications, I posted a link to a source that details EXACTLY how may purchase applications and refinance applications were started.

My only conclusion is that you know you are wrong and your only recourse is to use a logical fallacy to distract from your cluelessness.

44512 mmmarvel 2014 Mar 25, 3:26am

CaptainShuddup says

Call it Crazy
says

#15 Close to one-third of all Americans would be willing to submit to a "TSA
body cavity search" in order to fly.

#16 65 percent of Americans are dissatisfied "with the U.S. system of
government and its effectiveness". That is the highest level of dissatisfaction
that Gallup has ever recorded.

Wait a minute, we're fed up with them but we don't mind it when they shove a
cold finger up our Ass?

Wait, wait, take a look. One question has 1/3 or 33% answering (that it was okay). The other question had 65% answering (that they were dissatisfied). Obviously two different groups, and in many respects polar opposites of each other. The big question is what about the remaining 2% who are unaccounted for (when you total up these results)?

44513

Strategist 2014 Mar 25, 3:27am

tatupu70 says

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

I don't mean to crash your doom and gloom party, but all this means is that the refinance boom is over.

Oh Boy.... More drive by, useless - hit and run comments by you...

*

lol. CIC typically clueless.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/mortgageapplications.aspx

Take a look at the above link. Purchase apps are down 18% YOY, while refinance apps are down 66% YOY. Which one do you think is causing the majority of the layoffs?

Don't forget the tens of thousands who were hired to deal with the foreclosure crisis, a crisis that has been resolved, and those workers are no longer needed.

44514

zzyzzx 2014 Mar 25, 3:28am

22,000 mortgage workers fired in fourth quarter

Not enough!

44515 mmmarvel 2014 Mar 25, 3:30am

Half the population is still bitching that we went there, so you would think
the Millennials would be able to find it on a map....

You callous man - you KNOW moveon.org didn't include it in any of the lies they spread, nor did the Huffington. So naturally, these folks don't know.

44516

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 3:53am

Show me where I'm "wrong"....

You're wrong when you posted the purchase applications chart and that my "drive by" comment was useless.

People don't refinance to spend money on home improvements???

I'd imagine they do--what's your point?

The rest of the article talks about the number of people fired in the mortgage industry. Do you want to argue the numbers in the article??

Nope--that obviously wasn't my intention. The point is that the layoffs are due mainly to a drop in refinance activity.

Or, you just looking to continue your usual arguing with nothing based in facts....Typical asshole tactics by YOU....

Nope--I linked to and posted the facts already. Did you forget so soon?

44517

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 5:06am

Your drive-by comment is useless, because if you did some research, you would see that purchase applications currently make up 43% of applications...

Nope-- I'm still correct. The fact that purchase applications now STILL only make up 43% of the total after refinance apps fell by a whopping 66% only strengthens my point.

If you read the OP, it didn't differenciate, it was pointing it out as a whole that a lot of mortgage workers were fired.... You wanted to go off tangent, for what ever reason you usually do....

Yep--the OP didn't differentiate. And you and marco went on to imply that these layoffs indicate the recovery was a sham. That's why I needed to point out that the layoffs are a reflection of the lack of refinancing, not the lack of purchasing.

The premise of the article is that the total housing market is off and not as healthy as some want to make it, resulting in tens of thousands of firings...

And that's not supported by a proper analysis of the data.

44518

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 5:06am

by the way--what is a "drive by" comment?

44519

Bellingham Bill 2014 Mar 25, 5:10am

Keynesian is bullshit too since the business cycle is outdated in the age of computerization.

economic failures these a days are not "cyclical" but evidence of the unsustainable coming to a halt.

But the Austrian vs. Keynesian thing is a false dichotomy.

Both are bullshit. What we need is less wealth concentration and a reduction of the asymmetric flows from labor to capital (what Austrians cutely call 'savers'), but Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

The primary driver of inequality is the rents in land and health care. Each of these are $2T flows right out of the paycheck economy, although at least the latter does employ millions of people.

44520

indigenous 2014 Mar 25, 5:15am

Bellingham Bill says

Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

Complete bullshit

Bellingham Bill says

The primary driver of inequality is the rents in land and health care. Each of these are $2T flows right out of the paycheck economy, although at least the latter does employ millions of people.

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

44521

smaulgld 2014 Mar 25, 5:24am

http://smaulgld.com/why-saudi-arabia-matters-in-helping-to-keep-the-u-s-dollar-as-the-worlds-reserve-currency/

Strategist says

The dollar and America are a safe haven, and that is not changing any time soon.

China Busy Signing Currency Deals

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/26/china-busy-signing-currency-deals/

The Petro Dollar -its origins:

44522

rooemoore 2014 Mar 25, 5:29am

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

Great. Now could you move on to stating a cure for cancer?

44523

rooemoore 2014 Mar 25, 5:31am

31. 80% of the posters on pat.net are aging white men.

44524

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 5:47am

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

lol--stating it and proving it are two very different animals.

44525

MisdemeanorRebel 2014 Mar 25, 5:48am

darlag says

Let's see... "Borrow and spend" or "Save and produce"?

If everybody saves, who will buy the produce - beyond a minimal amount to survive?

See Japan.

44526

MisdemeanorRebel 2014 Mar 25, 5:50am

Reality says

Complete nonsense. the people who were forced to line up to hand in their gold were not the top 0.5%. In a gold standard system,

Historically - read any history of the Western World prior to the 20th Century - the wealthy have kept the PMs for themselves and issued paper to the peons. Even in the colonial days, the vast majority of commerce happened on credit. Even in late 19th Century Britain (and of course also the USA and just about everywhere else), there were credit crisis where the private gold-backed paper wasn't honored.

It's also why the wealthy always wanted a Gold-based system, and not silver. There's too much silver to corner.

The way to understand Austrians is to think they are wanna-be Bond Villains, and it all makes sense.

Hey, what happened to Mt. Gox?

Tee Hee!

44527

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 6:12am

The big picture is that purchase apps are back to the levels of 1995, if you don't think that's a statistic to be concerned about regarding this so called "recovery", then there is no hope for you....

You can't stop with the strawman arguments, can you?

44528

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 6:13am

Like a drive by shooting....

If you mean that I quickly destroy your assertions with a post or two, then I guess you are correct.

44529

RentingForHalfTheCost 2014 Mar 25, 6:25am

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2011/11/20/the-top-0-1-of-the-nation-earn-half-of-all-capital-gains

tatupu70 says

Purchase apps are down 18% YOY

Think about that...

Waisting your time jojo. Tatupoo refuses to think. It stopped when he became a realtor and started drinking the kool-aid.

44530

Bellingham Bill 2014 Mar 25, 6:25am

thunderlips11 says

If everybody saves, who will buy the produce - beyond a minimal amount to survive?

buying into their "saving" framing itself is bullshit when the top 0.1% of our economy owns 20% of it.

Austrians don't have an answer to this, "savers" are good, so people clearing mllions and billions are the capstone of virtuousness, even though the rich are pulling their incomes not from the bottom of the sea or the asteroid belt but from the incomes of our wage-earner economy, via the trillion-dollar rents in real estate, health care, plus the near $2T profits corporations are taking now.

44531

New Renter 2014 Mar 25, 6:31am

rooemoore says

31. 80% of the posters on pat.net are aging white men.

All white men are aging. Except the dead ones.

44532 mell 2014 Mar 25, 6:31am

Bellingham Bill says

but Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

I don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention and given all those who budgeted and invested prudently a fair chance at vertical mobility. I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp, but those are not the ones we are talking about.

44533 anonymous 2014 Mar 25, 6:37am

Some of you doomsdayers are about five years late to the party. Look outside your window,,,,get with the program.

There is no avenue for another downturn,,,,no matter how much babbling you want to do about it. Every,friggin,day,,,,all.the.time

44534

indigenous 2014 Mar 25, 6:38am

I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp

Huh, when Buffet or Immelt call themselves Austrians monkeys are going to ...

You ought to read what Stockman says about these guys, they are the antithesis of Austrian.

44535

Bellingham Bill 2014 Mar 25, 6:40am

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

more austrian dogma. Letting our $50T debt-based economy crater in 2008-2009 would have given us the 1930s, specifically the 1930-33 period of free fall cross-default that put half the economy out of work.

and given all those who budgeted and invested prudently a fair chance at vertical mobility.

aka nobody

true austrians don't really care about labor, being 'savers', they have their assets to make money for them. Half the country out of work just means paying lower labor costs and being able to buy up more of the monopoly board from weaker hands

44536 mell 2014 Mar 25, 6:42am

mell says

I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp

Huh, when Buffet or Immelt call themselves Austrians monkeys are going to ...

You ought to read what Stockman says about these guys, they are the antithesis of Austrian.

Agreed, unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

44537

MisdemeanorRebel 2014 Mar 25, 6:44am

jazz music says

It's all just a big misunderstanding you see .... blah blah blah .... we had no way of knowing ..... all the usual shite.

CEO when company makes record profits:
"We aggressively inspected our supply chain to identify potential effiencies and created more shareholder value. That's why I'm asking the board to double my options."

CEO when company faces video of slave labor that very same year:
"We had no idea that the suppliers of the basic commodity involved in our product creation was employing children and/or slaves."

44538

indigenous 2014 Mar 25, 6:44am

unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

I fail to see that, what am I missing?

44539

MisdemeanorRebel 2014 Mar 25, 6:45am

Vicente says

Sticks are reserved for the lowest-paid workers, who should be beaten with them and threatened with firing at every turn.

Nobody ever checks to see if the C-Suite is walking away with company-paid pencils and steno pads. But god forbid the $9/hr customer service gal is found with a Acme Company pen in her purse...

44540 mell 2014 Mar 25, 6:55am

mell says

unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

I fail to see that, what am I missing?

People like to equate everybody who is rich with being Austrian, and the media often does not do their due diligence when people like Buffet or Immelt try to invoke the Austrian spirits when it suits them. Could be deliberately or just stupidity, or both. In any case there is no point in quoting De Tocqueville at modern day American Keynesians.. ;)

44541

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 8:12am

People like to equate everybody who is rich with being Austrian

I know of no one who equates being rich with being Austrian.

44542

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 8:14am

don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

That's completely incorrect. There would have been a very short term reduction followed by a much larger increase as the wealthy purchased assets at rock bottom prices.

44543

tatupu70 2014 Mar 25, 8:20am