patrick.net

Kevin says

Specifically, we’re going to default on all of the debt currently owned by the federal reserve.

This shouldn't be surprising since any interest paid to the Fed by the Treasury is just credited back to the Treasury.

To sterilize this QE the Fed would have to sell the Treasuries to someone else.

(bow down before my expert knowledge of macro)

Well, regardless of what happens to the US Govt, the Fed has set the stage for a rise in all kinds of assets. The people piling into fixed income won't have that option anymore. Coke just issued 10 year debt at .75%. 1k yields $7.50 a year. Any high yielding bonds out there are being called in and anyone who piled into high yield debt with the plan on holding it to maturity is now staring at their account earning less than 1% again. They can either buy new bonds that earn next to nothing, let it sit in a CD earning next to nothing, or step up and buy dividend stocks, speculate, buy gold, or buy anything. Then inflation comes and everyone who stayed in bonds gets wiped out. Sad thing is, the banks literally have their employees directing all their customers into bond funds.

The only thing we know for sure is that we can't fully comprehend this and we can not predict very well how it will play out. The global interactions make it far too complex to predict. People talk about default or inflate when in fact we don't really know exactly how either of these would unfold, because the world is different than it was in any previous financial crises.

About inflation, I think the powers that be have been trying to inflate for some time now. But there is no inflation button the government can push at this time. If there were, it would already have been pushed. Banks won't lend at these low rates in a big way, so it would seem that inflation can only occur with massive government spending, but that won't happen in this political environment (except the spending that is done to support bonds.)

I just don't know.

I've seen the Russian 1998 default first-hand.
Nothing all that dramatic happened.
The instant drop of ruble rate by 75% has made all imports extremely expensive,
spawning a huge increase of domestic industry of all sorts that previously couldn't compete.
Within 2 years, the country was booming and prices of RE, stock market, and all other assets
expressed in foreign currency (e.g., USD) have more than recovered and are now far above the pre-default 1997 levels. For example, my condo in Moscow was ~80 K USD pre-default, dropped to ~40 K in the year after (because of ruble devaluation), now ~300 K.

theoakman says

Now watch as the Republicans only allow us to run a deficit of 1 trillion a year as the Democrats scream that reducing government spending doesn’t work.

I'm just waiting for the republicans who still say that lower taxes mean higher government revenues, to go ahead and figure out exactly how much they should lower taxes in order to balance the budget and solve the problem for once and for all.

IT wouldn't be good though for them to lower taxes too much, causing a surplus, because we all know that the fools would just spend it.

marcus says

theoakman says

Now watch as the Republicans only allow us to run a deficit of 1 trillion a year as the Democrats scream that reducing government spending doesn’t work.

I’m just waiting for the republicans who still say that lower taxes mean higher government revenues, to go ahead and figure out exactly how much they should lower taxes in order to balance the budget and solve the problem for once and for all.
IT wouldn’t be good though for them to lower taxes too much, causing a surplus, because we all know that the fools would just spend it.

The only way to balance the budget has always been to drastically reduce spending on a massive scale. Democrats want to increase spending and taxes. Republicans want to increase spending and lower taxes. Neither of them was ever willing to reduce spending.

theoakman says

The only way to balance the budget has always been to drastically reduce spending on a massive scale.

There are exactly two ways to have a balanced budget at any level of the economy:

1. Spend less
2. Earn more

In government, "Earn more" can come in a few flavors:

- Taxes
- Profits on government-owned businesses
- Various fees for services
- Grow the economy (indirectly increases taxes)

Spend less can come in a few flavors too:

- Reduce waste (there's plenty of it, particularly in the military and health care)
- Reduce benefits (medical coverage, social security payouts, end some wars)
- Find ways to make services cheaper to provide.

So, yeah, "the only way" is a pretty bold claim.

You definitely won't be able to balance the budget without increasing taxes or reducing spending on at least two of the big 3 spending programs.

Even if we assume that tax increases are out entirely, "on a massive scale" is also a pretty bold claim. We currently overspend income by about 30%. Reducing total spending by 23% would bring things back into balance.

But, yeah, you won't be able to cut 23% of spending without touching the big three programs.

theoakman says

Democrats want to increase spending and taxes. Republicans want to increase spending and lower taxes. Neither of them was ever willing to reduce spending.

Very true.
But even more important than reducing spending is CHANGING it, to drastically cut the spending on "consumption" in the broadest sense and increase that on investments into the future. The three top areas of spending should be not "SS, Medical, Defense" but "Infrastructure, Education, RDTE (Research, Development, Test, Evaluation)"
In fact, our military should (and largely could) pay for itself.

What no jail time? You can get 5 years in prison for Impersonating a Police Officer, your telling me impersonating a judge isn't a crime? Shut the company down? Hell these people should be in leg irons appearing in criminal court.

Correction or no correction, the train is starting to leave the building. Everyone's chips should have been placed by early 2009 when the markets turned around. Now, people who have been sitting around on cash waiting for housing prices to decline will have to compete with everyone who watched their stocks, bonds, gold, and whatever else go back up in value. The dollar is a train wreck in slow motion and too many people fool around trying to trade in and out of the market. I'm even guilty of this to some extent. Those who positioned themselves in the lifeboat early have been the biggest beneficiaries.

I think this is vastly overhyped, as is usual for anything to do with radiation. A release of radioactive nuclides 50 years ago (large or not) might have affected the people who lived there then, and might (I emphasize might!) have caused some cancers decades later. Even that is a huge strecth, given that the cancer rates for those who actually WORKED in the lab at the time, but not with the leaked experiment itself are not statistically abnormal. In any case, there can be ABSOLUTELY NO effect on anyone moving in today: the iodine released then has the half-life of 8 min.! Otherwise, nobody could live in Hiroshima or Nagasaki today - the radioactivity released there was thousands if not million times greater. You are welcome to bring a Geiger counter to that property and see if the level is any higher than in other places. While at it, do the same in Denver - the "radioactivity" there is much higher (1 mile above sea level + rocky mountains granite exposed around). Chemical contamination is trickier as it doesn't decay so quickly. I'd probably not drink from streams there while camping :-) But drinking water is extensively tested, and the levels described there are really way below permissible limits. Out of abundance of caution, it may be worthwhile to buy a water filter (as in other areas), but that's about it. I'd sure not base house purchasing decisions on such factors.

Jesus, may I ask where is that?

We can't all be geniuses.

I had a hud 203k loan on my first house in 1990 in Albany NY with no problems at all. The repairs to meet the terms of the loan are spelled out clearly along with the timelines. They were very reasonable and willing to work with me. I don't know if any of this still applies. Good luck.

I'm with fisk - where on earth did you get a deal like that?

I think he lives in Nevada. Was that Reno?

Must be one of those used to be 450K home, and now is foreclosed on less than half the price. So, Bubble Bobble, do you think the market in your area is almost bottomed out, and you feel like it won't go down much further? Then, it maybe is the right time for you to take an action. And about that 22K repair/fixing cost, you may want to have some cash set aside for that, for it always costs more than you think.

Anyway, I'd go buy it w/ cash if I see a house like that at 175K in my area. The reality is, 175K won't get me a small condo. Awww, sounds so unfair. LOL.

Prices in Phoenix are well below build costs from what I'm told. I know I'm off 70% from the peak.

Do you really think the East German unemployment rate is accurate? The Soviets lied about everything they possibly could.

So whats the Chinese motive? While any nuclear armed government can launch a sneak attack to take out coastal cities, then will never be able to take out the entire countries defenses before a counterstrike in launched. Even if hypothetically a sneak attack resulted on the total destruction of the United States without us firing a return shot the resulting radiation and smoke from fires from hundreds of cities would block out the sun as the weather distributed it around the earth. The end result would be pretty much the elimination of most of the world wide population with the exception of those who have prepared themselves in shelters for just such an event. There really no upside this point in time.

Whacky. Maybe a "Crimson Tide" incident?

Or maybe the SGC taking out a Ha'tak that popped into orbit:

Here is the #1 thing to watch out for when using an FHA 203(k) loan. Use experienced professionals who have experience with the 203k.

According to HUD/FHA, any FHA lender can do a 203k, but you need to work with a loan originator who has 203k experience.

Realtors should also have training, education and/or experience with the 203k, especially with writing and submitting offers. Here's some verbiage that HUD recommends to be placed in a 203k offer: The contract should state that the buyer is seeking an FHA 203(k) loan and that the “contract is contingent on loan approval based on additional required repairs by the FHA or the lender” or the “contract is contingent upon buyer(s) obtaining an FHA 203(k) loan without conditions and contingent on loan approval based on additional required repairs by
the FHA or the lender.”

While HUD/FHA permit the borrower to hire any contractor they want, HUD/FHA require the lender to "approve" the contractor by verifying their client references, credentials, licensing information, type of work performed, work experience, and experience. But since lenders do not educate contractors on the complexities of the 203k, contractors who want to do 203k work can obtain their 203k contractor education and 203k Contractor Certification at http://203kContractors.com .

-----
203kContractors.com®
203k Contractor Directory for the FHA 203(k) Loan
Direct - 480.463.4663
Paul Welden

and now for a commercial break.... geez.

So whats the Chinese motive?
South China Sea. You come to our backyard -- well, we can come to yours. See Obama: Asian Sphere of Influence Tour 2010. That would be quite an escalation, though...

If the rest of USA put into California (per capita) what West Germany put into East Germany over 20 years, streets would be literally paved with gold there.

As for the military expense, sure.
For a change, would Germany kindly station Bundeswehr troops in all major US states and on our Southern border to defend us for the next 60 years while
we re-build our economy?

Crazy volatility.

Thunder: I watch several news channels, usually back to back (thanks to the wonders of DVR). I watch local and national U.S. news reports, Channel 2 in SF and NBC with Brian Williams. Then I watch DW, RT, BBC and/or Journal TV. You should try it some time, if you can get those broadcasts. The difference is hard to miss.

I seethe with envy when I see DW cut to videos of steel factories, automobile plants, and computer companies in Germany, and the narrator is blithely quoting yet more positive economic numbers for the nation. (insert finger-down-throat gesture here)

Whether its their military spending or their (evil) social market economy, they're doing better than California. Did any of us ever think one day California would envy the former Eastern Germany's economy? Or that the major creditor of the U.S. would be China?

Side note: Germany just paid the last of its WWI reparations on Sunday, October 3, 2010.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1004/Germany-finishes-paying-WWI-reparations-ending-century-of-guilt

So now they are saying it's a sort of a trick of perspective view of a jet contrail:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/mystery-missile-is-probably-a-jet/

Fisk, Western Europe doesn't need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Also thunderlips, total US military budget is more like $1 trillion than 1/2, though the official figures won't state it.

sam1 says

Fisk, Western Europe doesn’t need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Exactly. As we protected them when they needed it and thus saved them major expenses allowing them to rebuild their economy, how about they return the favor now that we need to save on the military to rebuild ours? Otherwise, how would we essentially eliminate the defense budget, copying Germany per the poster's suggestion?

German companies pay a full 100% of an employees wages to the government. On top of that, employees pay taxes. From my last conversation with a german about work over there. I can only imagine how people would handle that over here.

Granted, it works.

It would be a scary thought if this was some foreign submarine that got this close to US border undectected and fire a missile from close range, making the attack if directed inland undefensable.

The US can't defend from Submarine firing missile this close. There's too much water to detect and antimissile can't stop something with no lead time to respond.

I can't imagine the US military will do this off of populated LA, in plain sight of so many people and media. My thoughts are the same as thunderlip

Scary indeed

I worked with a couple of people who had worked on nuclear subs. They would have training missions to track other subs where they would just follow another sub along at 1/2mile range. While they were topside they would have no problems tracking them, as soon as they dove they disappeared completely and they said that was with them being 1/2 mile away and knowing their exact location. As soon as they went under they simply disappeared.

He also stated that they had been off the coast of Russia a few times, and could see street lights from their positions of major cities. He wouldn't get into details about the missions, but they were active missions with a purpose. That shows that they were able to easily slip into anywhere they wanted.

That was probably early 90's? I'm guessing that many countries now have the same abilities or near it, and when you calculate in the sheer amount of water, it becomes impossible to find them.

I'm sorry but foreign ballistic missile submarine just doesn't make much sense.

The list of countries with fleets of such submarines roaming the oceans is short.
None of them have a beef with us large enough to be poking a stick in our eye.
UK? France? Nope. Which leaves Russia or China. China I discount immediately
because their leadership is entirely rational and not prone to warning shots.

Even with Putin frictions of late, there's a difference between a few Bears in
NATO airspace and 35 miles off LA. That kind of close and launching missiles
is just ASKING for an unfortunate incident. Assume it were a boomer and there
happened to be a destroyer in proximity? There's a large difference between
"we took periscope pictures of Venice Beach" and "by the way we lit off an
SLBM for fun". The first is a Cold War known tactic, the second is a recipe
for depth charges, torpedoes, and bodies floating in radioactive water.

I'd sooner buy a "Mad Major" than I would a deliberate provocation.

Watching the video again, the contrail is the simplest and therefore
it is most likely the correct explanation. The movement of the shiny bit
at the top does look more like setting sun reflecting off a plane than
it does a rocket exhaust.

I'm wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Oh yeah, let me state that I don't think it was a foreign doing, but tey definitely could do it.

I'm not sure about contrail, but someone will figure it out or fess up to doing it (some US military division).

Some lenders (loan originators) do require contractors to obtain a 203k Contractor Certification before they will approve them. Unless the lender or the borrower requires it, a certification is not required. The certification is only an external validation of the contractor's understanding, knowledge and education on the complexities of the 203k.

The buyer is permitted to use any contractor with 2 conditions, according to HUD:

1- no conflict of interest exists between the borrower and the contractor. Borrower cannot be affiliated or associated with the contractor. Borrower cannot be shareholder or owner of the contractor company. The Realtors involved cannot be associated or affiliated with the contractor in the same ways as the borrower is restricted. Read the Interest of Identity form the lender will provide. This is according to HUD.

2- the lender must "approve" the contractor

With all the moving parts the 203k has, contractors need to understand the variations between the 2 versions (Streamline and Standard/Rehab), how they get paid, lender's overlay restrictions, HUD Guidelines, FHA's Minimum Property Standards, HUD's time lines for starting and completing work, Draw Request forms and procedures, how to use the contingency reserve funds, Change Order forms, etc.

Education on the 203k is important, regardless if it's received through certification or other methods.

Fisk says

sam1 says

Fisk, Western Europe doesn’t need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Exactly. As we protected them when they needed it and thus saved them major expenses allowing them to rebuild their economy, how about they return the favor now that we need to save on the military to rebuild ours? Otherwise, how would we essentially eliminate the defense budget, copying Germany per the poster’s suggestion?

You don't need to eliminate the defense budget, you could just slash it by at least half if you get out of Iraq and Afghanistan and close off half of the ~800 bases overseas. We don't really need 2,500 F35 at nearly $100M per. It wouldn't be such a burden if the defense budget is brought down to around 3%-5% of the total GDP. That BTW would still represent the biggest military budget in the world, by a wide margin.

I am in the same situation as well. We decided to go all cash instead. They stopped accepting offers after mine went in. We'll see how my offer does against possible 203k loans since the listing agents stated that there were multiple offers. I expect a response either tomorrow or day after.

theoakman says

I’m wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Why do you care? PM's are doing well - be happy with that.

joshuatrio says

theoakman says

I’m wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Why do you care? PM’s are doing well - be happy with that.

I'm more than happy. I turned myself from dirt poor into a homeowner with a huge safety net in a span of 3 years. I find it hilarious that they remain on this site and completely dodge this thread.