patrick.net

I'm sort of like Rew. I bought about 2 years ago and so as lame as this sounds, once I did so I lost that "fire under my ass" when it comes to real estate discussions. That said, the housing bubble did make me aware and to be cautious with my money because what goes up ALWAYS comes down and I have no doubt the same will happen in the Bay Area again at some point and when it does, I'm sure that also means the economy will suffer too.

If anything, I find I'd much rather see a more balanced, rational market. I have no intention of selling until I'm retired or older. But in the meantime it appears we're in another bubble, and that means we're already on our way to another pop.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101571835

edvard2, I echo the sentiments of your last paragraph. You claim we're in a bubble. Here's a couple of reasons we may be in a bubble in the Bay Area:
1. Influx of Mobile 1.0 wealth (and, to some extent Web 2.0 IPO/options/RSU money)
2. Fed policies that helped investors "clear" the market (and then some)
3. Under investment in multifamily housing after the last bubble popped.
Will we see an outright popping like last time (dotcom bust, or foreclosure crisis)? Or will it be a slow deflation? Or do we just slide sideways into oblivion?

Come on folks. None of this should be all that shocking as most of these are judicial foreclosure states.

sbh says

Designed and built by Bilbo Baggins dosed outta his frickin' mind.

More like a wanna be Gaudi. Was probably the product of shrooms and absinthe back then.

https://www.google.com/search?q=gaudi&safe=off&rls=com.microsoft:en-US:IE-Address&rlz=1I7GGHP_enUS544&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=HClHU729J82nsATcxYCYDg&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1067&bih=481

Oh my.
Say, does anyone know if they are foreclosing on the condom factory "over in Jersey" where Bob Sacamano works? Kramer wants to know.

Betcha her next job is with HCA, Aetna/US Healthcare, another Insurance/Hospital profiteering organization or a Lobbyist Firm who reps them.

Her replacement is closely tied to MetLife and Walmart, and of course, a CFR board member.

https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving/rev_summary.php?id=70787

She'll get a job as an Obamacare "Expert".

Either that or head tech firm that will be awarded tech support for Heathcare.gov.

Thank you kitty cat, job well done! Thank you for removing the burden of choosing the level of health care I feel I need. Thank you for the ability to pay to be covered for treatments I have zero chance of needing. You didn't do a very good job by most people's standards, but clearly good enough for government work.

The fucked up part is that we taxpayers will eventually be on the hook, not the banks, for the lost money.

This is why I am pissed off at the banks; they contributed to the problem or caused the problem, lost their ass but taxpayers paid for it.

Everyone in Fannie&Freddie and banking has an interest in these "zombie houses" not being foreclosed en masse, it could upset the apple cart again.

Banks have a tough time foreclosing in some states. The guy was quoted from a bank that he never wants to originate any loan that he'll have to foreclose on someday.

Deadbeats fight tooth and nail if they can legally to never leave their houses.

The poor market isn't declining? Family Dollar is just getting it's butt kicked by industry leaders, Walmart and Dollar General. The two best places to get good deals on name-brand products.

It's all Obama's fault!!!

this is a misnomer.
what poor shoppers will miss is what they won't have nomer.

bgamall4 says

Dollar Stores Closing As Customers Are Too Poor Now

This time it will tech bust in SV. SFBA will be the epicenter of next collapse.

That's not what happened at all.

This administration came in hitting hard. It was dead set on punching the middle class worker/consumer in the gut. They gave out billions to cut rate thrift businesses, so they could build and hire 10's of thousands of part time jobs(and set the tone for the new order of things to come) to made it look like they were growing.
When in fact, they were the beneficiaries of Uncle Ben's converted Cheese.
The administration continued their assault on the competition of their beneficiaries of Obamawurld, by placing regulations and mandates that shuttered most private full time jobs.

Now that most of these businesses have been left to their own profits they can legitimately get from real customers, because this administration is now being occupied by throwing billions into the ACA debacle and botched website. We're starting to see just how productive these favorite pets really have been for the last 5 years.

Bulls Be Prepared To Eat CROW!

Why am I not suprised?

Are these the HAMP modified mortgages?

Let's begin the "all cash" investors party again. We need them to rescue this housing market. LOL.

bubblesitter says

Let's begin the "all cash" investors party again.

AFAIK, many are awaiting for the correction before scooping up.

Exactly. Who cares if some mortgage-needing doofus defaults? There are plenty of cash buyers ready to come in and take over.

Competition is just increasing in dollar items as can be seen from retailers like Target, Walmart and others now offering items at dollar ! Dollar item buyers are INCREASING but so is the stores offering them so it's just a question of competition. Dollar stores are very important to low income families.

bgamall4 says

bubblesitter says

Are these the HAMP modified mortgages?

Well, hamp and certainly 10 year helocs start adjusting this year.

Interest rates were in the mid to high 5's in 2004 and been lower ever since.

http://www.erate.com/mortgage_rates_history.htm

A reset would DROP the payments for anyone who hasn't refi'd since then.

As long as I have Walmart where I buy my food and clothing, I'm fine. :-)

EInvestor says

Dollar stores are very important to low income families.

Not just to low income families. There are several items which run $3-5 at other stores which cost $1 at my local dollar stores:

Toothpaste (brand name, not Chinese generic)
OTC medications (brand name, not Chinese generic)
Gift cards
Kiddie toys
Alkaline batteries
Hair gel (wife prefers the dollar store product to more expensive ones)

Etc.

New Renter says

A reset would DROP the payments for anyone who hasn't refi'd since then.

My understanding is that HAMP was a temporary reduction in payments for folks who can't qualify for refinancing in the first place. At some point down the road payment has to go back to where it was originally.

CIC, you are kind of late posting today.
Did the wicked wife make you clean the pool again?

Call it Crazy says

If delinquencies reach an uncomfortable level, we may see lenders pull back again.

Why one has to worry about lender pullback when plenty of cash money is in play? If delinquency rises, those troubled mortgages will simply be gobbled up by "all cash" investors. I have been following this blog for years and simply underestimated power of cash rich investors.

bubblesitter says

This time it will tech bust in SV. SFBA will be the epicenter of next collapse.

What makes you think this? All market and sales projections I see are looking like a good year for tech (smart phones, tablets, and a new growing online advertising industry).

Rew says

What makes you think this? All market and sales projections I see are looking like a good year for tech (smart phones, tablets, and a new growing online advertising industry).

Well, no one was expecting the dotcom burst.

NewRenter said: A reset would DROP the payments for anyone who hasn't refi'd since then.
I don't disagree; this has actually been a nice "silent stimulus" for a lot of folks. Extend and pretend for some. But let's not forget this piece of wisdom from Tanta via CR: Some have a 10-year IO period, meaning they reset annually between years 5-10 but do not recast until year 10. If the rate resets to a higher rate in that period, the required IO payment increases, but not as much as it will when the recast hits and principal must also be repaid on a 20-year schedule.

FWIW I read mild recession 2nd half of this year.

bubblesitter says

Well, no one was expecting the dotcom burst.

Except for people who asked about profits...

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Friday, April 11, 2014 __ Level is 102.0

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And "ThePublic Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

indigenous said: FWIW I read mild recession 2nd half of this year.
Why? Are the Repulicans going to go through with another one of their hostage taking exercises this fall? Nothing like a GOP induced mini-recession.
But seriously -- stimulus hangover? Is that where you're coming from?

bgamall4 says

They were pets of Wall Street. Don't you think the Street was in on it?

Only if that's where the printing press was.

As far as being in on "IT", hey it's Wall Street, that's what they do, is sell companies value in the form of an advertorial image, if they can make money of something, they'll call it the best performing stocks of all time.

EBGuy says

Why?

These guys are looking at the rate of change of yoy and 1/4 yoy. They also look at bond rates, the business cycle, and demographics .

http://itreconomics.com/blog/closer-look-at-job-numbers

the bulls from a few years ago? they are probably too busy swimming in their money.

She was sacrificed now so as to lessen the damage in November.

We're saying the same thing I think.
Basically this administration has pockets deep enough to make dog stocks smoke.