patrick.net

Troy says

Cost-push. Wages can and do go up as the cost of living goes up.

Except for the fact that they AREN'T.

Troy says

A plane ticket on All Nippon or Lufthansa. Back in the 30s the smart bears saw the writing on the wall and GTFO of Germany early.
While the propagandization of the rubes hasn’t quite reached Völkischer Beobachter/Der Stürmer levels quite yet, we’re about 30% of the way there.
Now, I’m only 20% in the doom camp. I see a 40% chance of following Japan’s path of ballooning BS, and 20% of things getting better somehow, like they did in the 90s.

1. The plane ticket is no problem, but I'm afraid visas in that situation gonna be a bitch :-) just as in your Germany comparison. Not to boast, but I've got 2 passports besides US and am statutorily eligible for 2 others myself + 1 through my wife, perhaps a record on this board.

But one does not preclude the other. Folks who GTFO of Germany who held the title to their RE did after 1945 just fine, even if little above 1 ft. height was left thanks to USAF/RAF. Those who held Reichs debt obligations, Mark cash and bank accounts, stocks, and even gold were not so lucky.

2. Your percentages (20 + 40 + 20) don't add to 100%, what's your other 20% outcome?
I'm in neither of your camps, but in the "USSR" camp (perhaps biased by my life experience). In brief, effective national default on existing debts and obligations via high inflation and perhaps currency reform, continued economic polarization associated with atrophy of many existing state functions including health and welfare, widespread tax evasion/ underground economy and economic and other crime, proliferation of ethnic and neighborhood-based gangs that effectively rule certain areas, devaluation of formal education, and adjustment to a much lower general lifestyle (esp. for those with no immediate econiomic utility). Perhaps chirping of the country and low-grade warfare in the regions near Southern border, where non-English cultures are in or near majority.

But, as history has shown from the collapse of Roman Empire to that of USSR and Argentina, it will not be "Mad Max". There will be some government, and monetary system, and taxes, and private property, and military, and laws, and those enforcing them. Humans are great survivors: people adjust, life goes on.

The first generation of asians have left Richmond, creating a wealth of higher end fusion restaurants. The best chinese food comes from Richmond still. The worst from those restaurants catering to other ethnicity's. The fusion places aren't cheap, but offer up great dishes. The best is an asian fusion with Indian spices.

Restaurants fail when they are run poorly. All you need is good food and a good manager. That means, you need a good cook and someone who is able to multitask and keep the various employees on task and coordinated. My family was basically built on the restaurant business. I've seen it thrive and I've seen it crash. I suggest you watch every season of Kitchen Nightmares because it is a 100% accurate reflection of the dos and don'ts in the restaurant industry.

Basically, if you can serve good food, provide good service, keep the place clean and the atmosphere nice, things go smoothly. I've seen places that serve phenomenal food fail because they can't get orders out on time. I've seen phenomenal food fail because the place is filthy.

dittomichel says

Sounds like you’re seeking a cash poor partner you can exploit. What happened to your outrage over the exploitation of the working class and middle class? I’d like to think successful businesses provide strong incentives and a good working environment - the partner needs a vested interest in the business taking off instead of failing like most do. Try a culinary school - interview top grads, etc.
TechGromit had good advice except I would say that not all franchise opportunities take off. I have in-laws who invested in an urban, hip type coffee franchise in Park City, UT. It didn’t die a horrid, epic death….but they closed it eventually. Competition in food service is tough. Still, I’d agree that franchise opportunities are less risky than going out on your own. Way more expensive to start-up, but less risky. Panera Bread wants $7 million in assets, $5 mil of which has to be liquid. Chipotle has got to be similar although I don’t know.
If you are going for Chipotle style Asian…I’m assuming you mean Asian with quality organic and local ingredients where possible. Get a chef who can make some crazy good Asian and make it Asian fusion so you aren’t just an organic version of Panda Express.
For goodness sake, forget English food. It’s great that you may enjoy it but the vast majority of American palates don’t seem to enjoy English food - the Brits are getting better but that is mostly b/c they have really embraced other culture’s cuisine - like Indian. I had fish and chips once….only because I was in London and it is kind of a standard fare, served in a newspaper cone. It, like most other dishes I have had over there wasn’t particularly good. You probably have noticed that there aren’t exactly a ton of English or German restaurants…there might be a reason for that. Plus it’s fried and not healthy. Subways are thriving these days b/c people are finally making an effort to eat healthier. Long John Silver’s isn’t around anywhere that I’ve seen in quite some years. If you go with your passion for English food….get a liquor license and make it an English Pub. Drunk people don’t care as much about calories.
You already know you need a good location. I like the idea of something next to an large office building, be it government or corporate. If you are a no-name / no reputation place, office workers might try you just out of boredom from their regular rotation. If your food is quality, maybe you get a following. If you deliver to the office floors, better. Be prepared to lose money for a long time. Chipotle and Subway make money because they is always a line.
Good luck if you explore it further and go for it. It’s too risky for me but if I had lots of extra cash I could afford to lose, I could see trying it.

Rofl, so offering someone with no money a job running a restaurant is exploitation? Not for nothing, but I know about 3 or 4 people who would consider it a gift right now.

Funny thing though....I wasn't worried about his "partner" skimming. I was thinking someone might under report.

Oh, well. Thanks ever so much for clearing that up. If you think this is game on, I'm not the type to play tag.
Seriously? You sound like a nut job.

tatupu70 says

Well, let’s see. We have low tax rates, low–almost non-existent–inflation, and very little regulation. I’m not sure how this analogy applies at all.

Very little regulation? LOL! And where does the US stand in the industrial world as far as business taxes?

I can think of a much larger list of dumb things that lots of people -- not just americans -- believe.

I can also think of plenty of dumb "liberal" things that a lot of people believe. Right now Republicans just happen to be slightly better at spreading their lies than the Democrats.

The fact is, most people aren't very bright. About 20% of the population (if that) supports everyone else. That 20% sets the agenda.

The good news is that the 20% is not of one mind, so it doesn't really matter if the rest of the population is dumb or not. The only major problem is when we let the dumb ones think that they should be in charge of things.

CrazyMan says

Fisk says

Los Angeles Renter says

.. and lead to our downfall similar to the Roman Empire.

Herein is the rub.
In the event of wholesale national and govt. collapse, what would you own other than real estate?

Guns? Then the real estate comes easy.

winner winner chicken dinner

I find it odd that all polls do not have an "*" after them that says, "based on answers from people that 1) had a house phone, 2) were home when we called, 3) answered, 4) spoke english(or the desired lingo of the pollster), 5) answered honestly, 6) were sober, 7) promise they vote. "

just kinda don't trust the whole "poll" thingy much, myself

Bap33 says

I find it odd that all polls do not have an “*” after them that says, “based on answers from people that 1) had a house phone, 2) were home when we called, 3) answered, 4) spoke english(or the desired lingo of the pollster), 5) answered honestly, 6) were sober, 7) promise they vote. ”

I shoulda been sober? Damn!

Bap is right, tho. Remember, Howard Dean was the front runner of the 2004 election until there was actually a primary. Then he was toast. It was all polls - the annointed one wasn't what any of us wanted.

Don't trust polls either.

Unfortunately polling questions can be worded in a confusing matter so most of these polls can be answered in the way you want them to. It would be very useful to see how they worded there questions to determine if there was an attempt to confuse those that were questioned. Also who likes to answer polls anyway? More often than not, people do not want to be bothered with poll takers, they are along the same lines as telemarketers. So who are they getting to answer these polls? If they were polling student on a college campus that be one thing, but if you going to go you in Redneckville, Kentucky, and go door to door to trailers, I'm sure you'll find people with lower IQ's and answers to match.

"25 percent of Americans don’t believe in Darwin’s theory ... while less than 40 percent do..."

Er huh? So what do the other 35 percent believe? How was this question worded? Do you believe in Darwin's Theory? Yes? No? Who's Darwin?

"...about a decade ago, 20 percent of Americans still believed that the sun revolves around the earth...."

Again, who the hell did they ask? And did they return to the same area to re-take the poll a decade later. Are they better educated now, or do they believe the earth really revolves around the moon?

" ... more Americans were able to name two of the “seven dwarves” than two of the Supreme Court justices...."

I'm guilty of this too, however what's this have to do with your topic, "16 of the Dumbest Things Americans Believe — And the Right-Wing Lies Behind Them". So the right wingers are conspiring to prevent Americans from remembering there Supreme Court Justices names? Sounds like a big waste of the right wingers time, they should be spending more of it on there the sun revolves around the earth conspiracy.

Asking prices don't mean squat to any BUYER using their head to make a purchase. Banks do not loan based on asking prices of other units. Taxes are not based on asking prices. Asking prices are candycane dreams. Unicorns. Vapor. Pixie Dust.

Bap33 says

Asking prices don’t mean squat to any BUYER using their head to make a purchase. Banks do not loan based on asking prices of other units. Taxes are not based on asking prices. Asking prices are candycane dreams. Unicorns. Vapor. Pixie Dust.

Talk about dreaming...Buyers using their head. Which is a higher percentage, people who buy using straight economics or people who buy because the walls are the right color?

I do have to say things are certainly weird out there. Some minor fixers we have seen in the Lamorinda/WC area have sold for way less than I thought they would, and as a total shock to me, homes are selling in Pinole Valley for above asking and WAY more than I would ever pay. We actually lost out on a house in Lafayette we were really interested in but did not make an offer on because we never thought they would take 80k less than asking, Damn house sold for exactly that!

Another house in Pinole Valley we went to see we didn't even want, especially for the price they were asking. You could have knocked me over when we saw that it sold for 30k MORE than asking, and only 10k less than the house in Lafayette!

Granted the Pinole Valley home had a pretty decent "Home Depot" remodel, and the Lafayette house was an older cottage and a fixer - but that fixer in Lafayette was on 1/2 acre with a pool and would rent for $500-$1000 more a month!

The market is bizzaro world here in the Bay Area.

Bap33 says

Asking prices don’t mean squat to any BUYER using their head to make a purchase. Banks do not loan based on asking prices of other units. Taxes are not based on asking prices. Asking prices are candycane dreams. Unicorns. Vapor. Pixie Dust.

Sorry, but I am on the ground and until a couple weeks ago was actively looking with a pre-approval. I can tell you that in Contra Costa and Alameda County, CA, buyers are not using their heads, houses are selling fast in the areas I am looking at in the 300-500k range, many for asking or over asking.

Things are weird. My wife and I were interested in a place that went from a short sale (we offered $275) to an REO in Vacaville. We thought the bank was asking too much. Comps indicated that was the case. The bank wanted us to bid up our price, we refused and walked. Turns out, someone did bid up on that house and it's being sold for over $300k.

Instead, we are now in escrow (not an REO or short sale) for a nicer house (3/2 1560 sq/ft, lot 7900 sq/ft) in a better neighborhood (less traffic, less noise) that needs no work, has been remodeled, and we agreed on a price of $285k. Asking price was $289,900. This one we can afford to make payments (going FHA) on one salary.

We thought about renting a nicer house (we rent a mediocre place in Davis because we can't afford to buy in Davis) but the cost of a nicer rental here would be higher than buying. We looked for 11 months before we found this place and decided it made sense for us to buy.

shrekgrinch says

I never said ‘next time it will be different’. I’ve been saying it will be the same: When interest rates rise debt-sensitive asset prices will be negatively affected.

And I'm saying that historically the correlation between interest rates and housing prices has been VERY small. So, in reality, the negative effect of interest rate increases have been outweighed by other factors. Basically, your point is moot.

Of course interest rates can rise w/o inflation. It's just that it has been a very rare event.

a4adam, you did your research well and it paid off. Congrats!

shrekgrinch says

His entire 2008 campaign was ‘don’t worry, be happy, we’re going to fix EVERYTHING’. And that is why he is being judged that way. I didn’t make those rules — he did.

Nice strawman. That was not his campaign at all.

Shrek is right on taxes -

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/promise/515/no-family-making-less-250000-will-see-any-form-tax/

The only thing he didn't say is "Read my lips" which we were bludgeoned with over and over again in the '92 campaign. I can still hear the remix in my head "Read my lips...Read my lips...Read my lips...No new taxes". Ahh, back in the day when MTV actually had music videos...

That article was quite an assortment of hodgepodge(awesome opportunity to use that word). If you're still arguing liberals vs conservatives you're caught in a time warp, and have missed the boat. It's rich vs poor, powerful vs weak, and it's not hard to tell which side most of us are on. So whether you believe Obama is a US Citizen, or Palin slept her way to the top, it really doesn't matter.

While you're busy arguing the "finer points" of made up terms used to divide and distract us, the "powers that be" are busy stealing your savings, kicking you out of your house, and drugging your food(maybe not the last one, but they sure want control of it, S510)

So let me know how being "liberal" or "conservative" worked out for you when your broke, homeless, and eating government cheese.

Deflation Nation: Excluding food and energy costs, prices were flat for a third straight month and the increase from a year ago of 0.6 percent was the smallest since records started in 1957.

Tude, Thanks for the field report. It seems to mesh well with MS and CS data -- as well as Roberto's pancake theory. Something's gotta give; will be interesting to see what that something is...

Tude says

Bap33 says

Asking prices don’t mean squat to any BUYER using their head to make a purchase. Banks do not loan based on asking prices of other units. Taxes are not based on asking prices. Asking prices are candycane dreams. Unicorns. Vapor. Pixie Dust.

Sorry, but I am on the ground and until a couple weeks ago was actively looking with a pre-approval. I can tell you that in Contra Costa and Alameda County, CA, buyers are not using their heads, houses are selling fast in the areas I am looking at in the 300-500k range, many for asking or over asking.

welp .. tell ya what, those folks that are buying a house to live in, well ... they are leaving a house that they live in ... so, one must ask, are they jumpers or waiters?? Lets figure it to be a 50:50 split. That means that jumpers are putting top-end homes in the system, and taking your cheese because it looks easy to them. Don't sweat it, that McMansion they just walked from will be yours for the price they just gave for the cottage you wanted. Fear not ... reality bites. The biggest mistake you could make is litening to some REwhore telling you "the market is hot .... cant keep inventory .... your target market is the hottest one ... blah fucking blah, it is all bullshit.

I think it's a pretty good way to test out a cook and/or business relationship. Those things can make insane money too, super low overhead and people flock to them, especially if you park in the right places. If you get a following, they'll just come to you.

Yeah that ignore feature is great. All of a sudden threads that appeared to be full of crap turn back into interesting conversations.

The nice thing about those restaurants that serve only food and not ambiance is that you never need to worry about losing the ambiance. I'm betting the "casual fine dining" must make a fortune, but if you lose your crowd, even for a short period it must be just deadly to get it back. I had friends who owned clubs and that was the nightmare they dealt with every few months. The crowd would change gears and move on and once you lose a critical mass, everything goes.

I still think the roach coaches are probably a great way to get started in the business. Such low over head, and startup costs. All take out foods. If your location isn't working for you, move to a better one. Try out a few. Although you've got a very narrow window to serve food in. Probably 2 hours, from 11:30-1:30.

Nomograph says

If you hit the “ignore” button he magically goes away.

Liberals love censorship. If they can't debate with a conservative, they hit the ignore button, cry "MOMMY" and run away. Pretty sad when you think about it. LOL

shrekgrinch says

tatupu70 says

Nice strawman. That was not his campaign at all.

Maybe not on Planet Moronity. But for those of us on Planet Reality, it was all that.
Hopey Changemas, everyone!
And now…a word from Tatu’s sponsor, Peggy Joseph:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36×8rTb3jI

I'm glad you are so proud of yourself, but you are still wrong, of course. Obama never campaigned that he would "fix everything". No politician would ever say that. I know you like hyperbole and strawmen arguments--it's a favorite trick of AM radio. Unfortunately, most on Patnet can see through such nonsense easily which is why you feel like you are attacked.

shrekgrinch says

4) With only 5 minutes or so on Google, shrekgrinch proves that Obama in fact did raise taxes.

Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back. In total taxes went down for most Americans. I paid less last year, expect it to be similarly low this year. Maybe you should recheck your returns.

That’s all the rage right now, but food fads have a steep upward and downward curve.
I suppose a couple of deaths (or bad cases of food poisoning) may put a damper on things, but I think the gourmet trucks are a direct response to the RE bubble and unaffordable commercial rents. Secondly, they are enabled by social media (which didn't exist previously), and thirdly, they are part of the entrepreneurial trends that SFAce mentioned.

I believe Obama said as a candidate that HIS PLAN would not raise taxes. There's a difference there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8erePM8V5U

Then he became President. Congress passed some bills for example raising tobacco tax, and he did sign those into law. Not part of his original plan perhaps, but that's politics.

I don't expect all "pledges" from candidates to all be considered legally binding after they are in office. It's not that they are all evil, it's that once you are in office the situation may dictate you have to change your plans. You may have to....gah!... compromise! Personally I'm down with tobacco tax, and RayRay's "Fat Tax".

Nomograph says

My neighbor owns a nice little neighborhood Italian restaurant and he makes money hand over fist. He told me that after he finished cooking school he decided on Italian because the margin is so high. Pasta, sauce, and a little ground beef or sausage costs pennies per plate, and he can get $12.95 for it.

Mrs. Vicente is Italian and finds it hilarous Americans will pay so much for pizza and pasta. Pasta in particular is the food of the poor and is cheap over there. Americans also ALWAYS overcook their pasta into a soupy mess. Take a couple of minutes off the "al dente" number on any American package if you want it to be actually cooked right. She was also amused by what we call Alfredo sauce. She'd never heard of it, over there and in the rest of the WORLD it's called Bechamel sauce. We do go to some Italian places, but only for dishes which are tedious to prepare, not friggin spaghetti.

Fisk says

SoCal Renter says

Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service … will see phenomenal growth in home prices.

And when you think of such areas,
CA and particularly Bay Area is the 1st thing that obviously comes to mind.
But I agree with your general premise, so prices in Singapore may well go up.

Believe it or not, California and the Bay Area have a lot of great government services for the amount of taxes paid. Workers make more money, have better benefits, and have better legal protections than in other parts of the US. This doesn't appeal to employers of low skill wage jobs, but this is a plus to the educated highly skilled workforce. If you look at things like in-state university tuition and Prop 13, you can't find another state that even competes with the value offered by California.

The final piece you did not address. California and the Bay Area in particular are very immigrant friendly. Worldwide skilled labor pool feels welcome to make a better life in these areas. If you're a black doctor born and educated in Ethiopia, and you decide to make a better life for yourself in a new country, are you going to choose China or California?

Vicente says

Mrs. Vicente is Italian and finds it hilarous Americans will pay so much for pizza and pasta. Pasta in particular is the food of the poor and is cheap over there ...

How long has it been since Mrs. Vicente arrived from Italy?
Been to a restaurant in a major Italian city recently?
But she/you are right about overcooking pasta, I also cut it off early.

Troy,

I highly doubt that there will be a buyers' strike, cause we are so conditioned to be a home owner. I sure would like to see that happening. But there is just too much money out there. And only the rich and investors are going to buy those properties to drive up the cost of housing once again. Fine, the price of housing may go up. But again, it won't involve people like me.

So Iwack maybe right in this instance. He is a real estate agent who has nothing to do all day but to visit this website to preach something that may or may not happen. This time, my vision is not so clear like it was 6 years ago, when I foretold the impending disaster to everyone. Of course nobody listened to nobody.

I saved and waited for a good opportunity for 6 years. If Iwack is right, I may have missed an opportunity, because I simply have gotten used to waiting. Now I have about more than a few hundred thousands to sit in the banks that give me only 2% annual return. Unless Republicans is at it again, our economy will most likely recover within the next few years. Since I don't have a crystal ball this time, I think I will just keep the money in the banks just for a disaster that may never happen.

Fisk says

How long has it been since Mrs. Vicente arrived from Italy?

Been to a restaurant in a major Italian city recently?

But she/you are right about overcooking pasta, I also cut it off early.

She came here in 1997 but her family is still there. She visits and
even totes along Vicente Jr. What's your point? There's a family
restaurant on nearly any street that will serve you cheap food like
pizza or pasta at rates a student can afford. Sure there are nice
restaurants with fancy dishes that cost more, just as here.

I liked the moment in "Big Night" where Tony Shaloub has a fit
when the patrons don't want his amazing risotto they want
spaghetti with meatballs.

This line of thought awakens a dormant craving for Mozarella di Bufala.

Oil in the pasta water? Discuss.

PS - "Big Night" is a must see.

tatupu70 says

I know you like hyperbole and strawmen arguments–it’s a favorite trick of AM radio.

LOL, no one who could easily see through that would ever claim that it was a "favorite trick of AM radio," which by the nature of the accusation implies that it is not a favorite trick of the left or was not at least as prevalent on the left, including Obama himself, the king of strawman arguments.

EightBall says

Not sure where Vicente would best serve - department of justice seems appropriate.

Head of the BATF of course, duh!

Once marijuana is legalized it'll be all mine, not those DEA dimwits.

I think I'll reorder the name to BAMFT, at least it's pronounceable without spelling it every time.

Oh wait, gotta throw in regulation of Ray America's Fat Tax.

So then it becomes BAMFFT. Hmmm...