patrick.net

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/04/16/why-is-us-senator-harry-reid-so-concerned-with-local-nevada-rancher/

Harry Reid almost had a Ruby Ridge reenactment there. Surprisingly the man is still in the office, and not rotting in jail like he should.

"There are almost 100 million working-age Americans no longer working. More Americans are today on entitlements than working in the private sector. More Americans are on food stamps than the number of women working in America. Iran is building a nuclear bomb. Russian jet fighters are threatening American ships. Yet Harry Reid obsesses about a rancher late on his rent? Something smells fishy folks."

indigenous says

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

If you're not beating Greenspan to death with Geithner's disembodied arms, you're part of the problem.

I contend that the interview would have been more revealing if Stewart would have broken Geithner's nose at the start.

I think he should have pulled that raccoon off of Geithner's head. The guy is bald as a cue ball. Go natural, Timmy, and grow a beard, too.

I don't have to invent anything...85 Billion dollars per month of which up to half was used to buy worthless securities. Not mortgage-backed securities that might someday be worth something if only the Fed held onto them long enough, but time sensitive, over leveraged, short-term paper that became nothing more than lost bets on tired horses. That's not mind-control, that's insanity.

That money has allowed the banks to continue mortgage origination. Without the billions buying up the magic financial instruments based on 50-to-1 leveraged real estate, the crash would have been mind-crushing.

You're asking us to believe there will be no interest paid on that debt. No cost at all. That the ever rising prices of real estate (accompanied by forever low inflation, I might add), will always make yesterday's debt negligible.

From 44 to 71, Bretton Woods pegged the dollar to an exact weight of gold. You must believe that like an anti alchemist, with the stroke of a pen, Tricky Dick turned gold into nothing but a 5000 year old tradition.

Today's economists are wondering where the Fed's trillions have gone if the banks aren't lending it back out. That it's all safe in the vaults for a rainy year. Actually most went to pay for WORTHLESS mortgage-backed securities and the incestuous derivative families that fell with them.

You might conclude then, "So what, then? If it all went into a hole in the ground, then it won't be causing inflation, and your fears of Weimar Republic of San Fran is meaningless!"

The problem is that that the real estate market is not based on fundamentals. Only the distribution of current debt in the market is based on those factors. Price fixing however has guaranteed that this time, the burden of risk has moved more and more to investors laying all cash on the line. The Fed cannot and will not bail out cash only buyers. You're not the type of high roller who had their tab covered by QE over the passed 7 years. If the market were to see a 20 to 25% correction in the next few years, those cash only guys will have nothing but a smile waiting for them at the Fed.

If prices continued rising but slower than the price of beef, shrimp, corn, and dairy to the tune of the same 20-25%, they are still screwed.

Oh, and only the democrats will have pitchforks, everyone else will have ammunition.

indigenous says

Lehman went BK, which implies that any bond holders would have been near the front of the line for assets.

"Lehman went BK, which implies that any bond holders would have been near the front of the line for assets."

Doesn't look like a question to me.

indigenous says

theoakman says

bondholders had to be paid 100 cents on the dollar instead of lets say....95 cents on the dollar.

Which ones? certainly not the GM bondholders.

INVITATION to predict Tuesday's Real Homes!

RESULT shown here

http://www.showrealhist.com/RHtable.html

bgamall4 says

millennials want to live with their parents

I am not sure about that. It's either 1) - they can't afford to move out or 2) - they lack the "incentive" since they will spend most of their meager wages on rent and will lose imputed savings in terms of housekeeper, chauffer, chefs, etc..

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Is there any such thing as a REALTOR that's not a wife beater?

Wow: that's some massive bigotry.

Some realtors are single.

I think that's the point, any wife will do, especially if they bitch and diddle at the closing.

Ceffer says

I think that's the point, any wife will do, especially if they bitch and diddle at the closing.

That's true: you can beat someone else's wife in a pinch.

Per Jimmy Carr: "Beating your wife... I mean, it's your wife - it's like keying your own car!"

The Soviet Government had all power with regards to weaponry and military might. No regional or local government (or group of individuals for that matter) had enough firepower to reasonably overthrow the government. However, the "Soviet" military fractured in a remarkably short period of time. What was the day before, the overwhelming might of a single entity, became the increased capability of regional powers. Because of money rather than firepower.

Thinking they are clever, I would not be surprised if, in the event of a widespread uprising, the Federal Government deployed national guard and coast guard units out of their own states in the "public interest". Hoping to prevent defection of troops in the defense of their own home geography. In that event, civilians who were once anti-2nd, would find themselves grateful of the amendment remaining in force.

dublin hillz says

bgamall4 says

millennials want to live with their parents

I am not sure about that. It's either 1) - they can't afford to move out or 2) - they lack the "incentive" since they will spend most of their meager wages on rent and will lose imputed savings in terms of housekeeper, chauffer, chefs, etc..

They got to make those bloated student loan payments somehow!

If I'm elected to be the next President, I promise to round up all the Realtor's. But I'll also bring back the military draft. (how old are you Patrick?)

"It's just a flesh wound!"

I am looking for a triple bottom at 1180-1200 by the end of June which is seasonally the worst time for gold.

deepcgi says

Oh, and only the democrats will have pitchforks, everyone else will have ammunition.

Hilarious. The Greater Depression doesn't even involve masses standing in soup lines, but you see Mad Max. You need one of these:

"While the industry is rebounding from a weather-ravaged first quarter,"

I guess if housing doesn't recover this summer it will be because the sun is shining.

We need to open up central bank eligibility to competition. The Fed is a corrupt and incompetent monopoly.

Just goes to show you how private demand never returned and how fed pumps is keeping the price from falling rather than actual buyers who intend to live in these homes but the new bird in town is looking mighty hawkish

They have come so far with so many QE, bond buying, and printing $ and still can't have cure for housing? how shocking.

Just posted the same article on my latest- I like this :

“This supports the notion that the weakness in housing is not enough of a reason to derail the Fed from their baseline policy path,” he said. “Tapering continues.”

Yet they insist the economy is fine- it's just housing that isn't!

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Wednesday, May 28, 2014 __ Level is 104.7

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And "ThePublic Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

indigenous says

You can just call me Indigenous

I always think of the "indigenous types" that Tony Soprano complains about to his daughter Meadow that always seem to have money for gambling and crack.

corntrollio says

I always think of the "indigenous types" that Tony Soprano complains about to his daughter Meadow that always seem to have money for gambling and crack.

Why do I give a fuck, what you always think of?

One addendum when I think of corntrollio, I think of someone taking it in the ass as in deliverance.

thomaswong.1986 says

extensive hoses making it impossible to change a spark plug...

Usually it's not the hoses that are the problem so much as other things. Certain engine bays are too small to change the back sparkplugs on a front-wheel drive V6.

elliemae says

I have one of the recalled cars (cobalt)

Ouch, yeah, the Cobalt wasn't really one of the good ones. The new Cruze is much better, as is the Sonic.

elliemae says

They replaced it, but they didn't replace everything they were supposed to and it went out again. The first time that I brought it in they held it overnight... but if you figure out all 5x they held my car hostage almost a month.

I assume you took it to the dealer while it was still under warranty for this, but dealer technicians are basically glorified parts-change monkeys. They don't really know how to analyze problems and just keep changing parts until the problem goes away. There are some master techs at dealerships that are good at analyzing problems, but they're not usually the ones working on your cars and that's why you get these repeated visits. This has nothing to do with manufacturing and everything to do with the service department which is run by your dealer.

elliemae says

Supposedly they're trying for "transparency," but I think all these recalls and admissions of crappy designs are only because they've been caught (or are about to be).

As you mentioned, some of these problems already had TSBs, so they already caught the problem and decided to pay for a fix for everyone instead of only those who squawk.

Ask Toyota about their recalls for sludged engines. Huh? What recall?

Strategist says

In China, they prefer Buicks and Cadillacs MADE IN USA.

Sorry for the shitty Wikipedia link, but a lot of GM cars sold in China are made in China:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_GM

They have some models based on Opels, Holdens, and Daewoos that aren't sold here, so no, not really made in the USA.

indigenous says

One addendum when I think of corntrollio, I think of someone taking it in the ass as in deliverance.

Yes, I encourage people to have anal sex -- as I mentioned in another thread, it's a good form of birth control for people who are too stupid in 2014 to figure out other methods.

Ah messing up well-crafted sarcasm!

But to respond, anyway, I don't believe in endings - only in punctuated equilibrium and bursting thresholds.

Here are a couple of examples i just happened to be examining today:

Insurance companies and pension funds are too big to fail. After another threshold breaks, those will be the groups who, rather suddenly, will be screaming for the Fed to bail them out. I don't know whether by "bailing" we'll be helping them get water out of their sinking yacht, or pushing them out of an airplane, but I prefer the latter.

And another, slightly larger concern:

Spain Unemployment Rate: 25.6 %
Spain Under 24 y.o. Unemployment Rate: 54.3%

The number of emigrants (under 24) relocating to Germany from Spain increased 53% from 2012 to 2013, and 68% from 2013 to 2014.

PLUS:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/28/unemployment-rising-germany-france

PLUS:

Deutsche Bank's total derivatives exposure as of May 1, 2014:

55.2 Trillion Euros

Which is backed by only:

521 Billion Euros in assets.

Yep. that's right. Germany alone has more money at risk than there ever has been entirely on earth, and has it leveraged at 100-to-1.

And FINALLY:

Germany asks that 674 tons of their gold be returned from the safe-keeping of the Federal Reserve, but return with only 5 tons four months later.

Now, THAT is a threshold. It will be crossed. It will be broken. The current equilibrium WILL collapse and we'll have a punctuated event. It could be a bank holiday (God help us) or just a pleasant German cook-out. But if Germany can't hold the EU aloft, then there is only the US Federal Reserve (which, we mustn't forget, has shitloads of gold in its vaults).

The same kind of threshold is holding aloft the prices of real estate in the Bay Area. Inflated Stocks and Equities keep money flowing back to the same neighborhoods, but it can't be sustained - that is, as long as you want to keep a 99 cent menu going at McDonald's.

Texas, much like Germany, will not be able to save everyone who jumps ship. Houstonians won't pay 4 bucks for a cheese burger just so San Fran can keep selling shacks for a half million a piece. They'll pay for the rate of inflation only.

(oh and what happens when we find out that the Fed (*gasp*) doesn't actually have 674 tons of German gold, but has in reality been selling each ounce of it "physically" to 100 different countries? Why the price of gold drops of course. YessireeeBOB, there ain't no diff-ernts twixt paper gold and REAL gold. Nuh, uh." Those two are the same thing...and the price of paper will never separate from physical. No way!")

A major shift is happening in Fed thinking
They were on record as doing QE to drive home prices higher. Now they seem to be giving up on housing but holding onto the notion than the economy will improve even without housing!
http://patrick.net/?p=1243329

smaulgld says

A major shift is happening in Fed thinking

They were on record as doing QE to drive home prices higher. Now they seem to be giving up on housing but holding onto the notion than the economy will improve even without housing!

http://patrick.net/?p=1243329

If you guys were the Federal Reserve, how would you solve our crisis?

Strategist says

If you guys were the Federal Reserve, how would you solve our crisis?

If I were objective and not beholden to those that placed me in my position I would disband the Fed

smaulgld says

A major shift is happening in Fed thinking

They were on record as doing QE to drive home prices higher. Now they seem to be giving up on housing but holding onto the notion than the economy will improve even without housing!

http://patrick.net/?p=1243329

It's all about metrics

At first the monetary magicians said it was all about unemployment, next it was all about housing and now the next metric to be pulled out of her hat is the economy

But Yellen's interest rate wand looks to be out of magic. The government had a pipe dream of white picket fences for everyone. But Americans can't refinance their way to wealth. Especially in the Greater Depression.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/yellens-wand-is-running-low-on-magic

No more DUI's

Bubbabear says

No more DUI's

Now we can get the cops off the street and out fighting real crime. What will the Police Industrial Complex do if they can't fund themselves with punitive speeding tickets and false-pretense stops to sniff for drugs and arrest warrants??

How will insurance companies determine fault for cars that don't have drivers? Don't tell me they're just going to stop selling auto insurance. . . .

I would say the ham hock arms of a massive hirsute lesbian, but Kim Jung-un is the only one in North Korea who has enough food to get fat.

The weedy, emaciated arms of a petite, starving North Korean hirsute lesbian just doesn't have the same ring to it.

elliemae says

Re: the CSI Biebs dying video - I'm impressed at how many shots it took for him to die. He's much tougher than I thought

It was those kevlar tattoos.

Self driving car jihad!

Lululululululululululu

A missionary using a bag of rice as bait and Bill O'Reilly in the hiding in the bushes with his elephant gun.

Sucks.
Strict underwriting guidelines is the culprit. Denying loans to those who can pay should be a crime.

I'm on the wait list for a car that runs on fuel cells. I expect delivery in the year 3000. Until then I have devised an engine that runs completely on bull shit. Until that is installed. I'll try to get Arnold Schwarzenegger to push my car around for me.