patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Yes, but then I can come up with a reason to explain anything after the fact. "Uhhhhh, it was more sellers than buyers." It's funny to see journalists scramble for reasons for market behavior.

I'm not knocking your reliance on data. That's commendable. And the cool thing is you can change your mind about which data to pay the most attention to after the fact, when the market has a big swing you didn't predict.

You might as well be an Elliot Wave theorist.

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Show me an option pricing model that doesn't price the way out of the money options in a way that doesn't fit a normal probability distribution. This is becasue the probability of an event of magnitude greater than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean happens more frequently that the math predicts.

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

marcus says

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

Exactly

You can't

It's Ghost economic theory

and even if there was such a event, it would be meaningless to the greater good of humans

That's your last grasp hope a deflationary collapse in a strong demographic patch

Wrong country to bet against folks.... Don't you all leave before us Data Miners smoke out your radical economic views in the next decade

This is America.... Not Europe or Japan

Logan Mohtashami says

Today we have 155 Million working people

43 year lows in unemployment claims

You cannot have this ...
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2014/ted_20140423.htm

While you also have this ...
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-compare-1975-2015-inflation-price-changes-history/

Demand is going to continue to go down for non-essentials.

Edit: and for those trying to cling to middle class dream, of single family home, a kid or two, with good schools and some leasure time ... it's getting extremely difficult. There is an overabundance of labor for good paying jobs.

Logan--

Why do you insist on portraying people who see potential problems in the foundation of the US economy as America haters? Honesty isn't hating.

Nobody has a problem with you using data--that is commendable. The problem is that your reliance on demographics leads you to poor conclusions. And you ignore the clear warning signs, even when they are huge NEON signs. Your mind is closed and you find data to fit your narrative rather than using data to guide your opinion.

It's sad.

Rew says

Rookie who knows that he doesn't know is almost certainly to make more money in markets that economics professor who doesn't know that he doesn't know.

You sound like the second one Logan

Tampajoe says

US economy as America haters? Honesty isn't hating.

Because a deflationary collapse is non sense

You're left wing ideological people from your sentence structures outside of Strat and Ironman

Create false narrative conservative and liberal economic ideological agenda discussions

Theories are terrible, ....

Only reason someone would make up extreme left wing and right wing ideological theories is because they don't know that the middle is strong

He's no professor.

Worry about Europe or Japan... this U.S. collapse in 18 months is silly

Who said 18 months?

It's hard to give an exact timeframe because the Federal Reserve will fight it as long as they can. But if inequality starts rising again, it's a matter of when, not if.

Reading this thread, one might come to the conclusion that Logan predicted the most recent crash. And patnetters just don't get, what with lack of education on the matter.

Funny, because some of us have been around here for well over a decade, and prior to housing peaking in 06, this site was nothing but "what will happen once this whole fraud fueled bubble crashes?"

But dat demographics tho

Logan Mohtashami says

You lost this battle before it ever started because you doubted this country and it's people

American exceptionalism will not avert natural disasters or suddenly right major economic imbalances. Stop with the "Anti-patriotic, you are betting against America" bull-shit. This has nothing to do with how flag wavy someone is.

Core PCE since 90s:
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905

This is not the spending you are looking for.

Yes, per above, the majority of families need two solid incomes now to be middle class.

Logan Mohtashami says

No over investment thesis outside of commercial real estate

Money flooding to safe shelters like bonds, and wow what a market run up in stocks, right? right?

Logan Mohtashami says

155 Million plus workers are simply going to stop spending

You think I need a smart phone and to go to Starbucks every morning? You think I need to buy those Chinese plastic toys at Target for my sons? consumers will spend, but it will just be health, housing, and food ... remarkably ... the things that have stayed consistently expensive or held value. Funny that.

Rew says

Core PCE since 90s:

Exactly and consumption is at all time highs, you just made my point

Dollar strong makes our imports cheaper

Service inflation inflation always rises here

Come on guys, you're better that this, this is kids economic theory on a deflationary collapse

I am sure you know how currency and commodities work

This is why we have a classic old school text book labor shortage

We are too old and too young Why claims are at 43 year lows and job openings are at world historic highs today

None of this means a deflationary collapse what so ever in the next 12 24 36 months what so ever, your charts affirm my points even if you don't know that you're doing half my work for me

Why do you think I said

This housing cycle simply won't have enough mortgage demand to have a real recovery and why housing demand was going to be weakest ever on record

Demographics is one variable in that equation

But in a few years, that supply chain switches positive and now you're bringing the collapse thesis

Ouch

Why are you dredging this filth up, instead of talking about the email server?

Are you trying to rig the election?

Don't worry son, I have hustled a lot better ball players than you ...

Your little investment club hasn't gotten that memo

So, I want you and Rew, Tatu, Ironman

Just keeping on talking...

You're being hustled on your own page ... still haven't gotten it

Hurricane IHLlary may put him in jail. Does Russia have extradition agreements? Hope Trumpligula enjoys Russian winters!

Ceffer says

Hurricane IHLlary may put him in jail.

It's worse than that. She'll give Ivanka a job, and take the object of his sexual desire and familial pride out of his daily reach.

Bush slurping sex orgies with Melania, Michelle, Rosie, Huma, and IHLlary with Trumpligula witnessing and tied to a chair gagged will serve him right.

Come to think of it, it would serve me right, too! Where do I sign up?

Blue Pill shit testers and masochists wanted!

He probably pays a million dollars a year in insurance on that property.

Was this government money or his private insurance?

Unlike, say Wall Street Bankers who get 6 figures from Federal and NJ Taxpayers every other time a Nor'easter hits their Fire Island or Jersey Shore beach house. I bet they're reading this article and are appalled!

marcus says

Relative to a couple decades ago, a liquidity trap of the magnitude we are now experiencing would have been considered impossible

I don't believe in the concept theory of a liquidity trap... because to me a trap is when you can't raise rates when inflation is rising while consumption is falling

1965-1979.. isn't the norm with inflation so falling from that level shouldn't be looked at in a negative light

The world has consumed more goods and services in the last 30 years than the last 300 years combined

Why is everybody cavilling over a mere 17 mil? Trumpliugula could make that much in a few months selling Melanoma's used panties on ebay. Now, that's Trump Branding!

We own this planet too

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Trump got $17million insurance payout for non-existent 2005 hurricane 'damage'

The amount of hurricane damage Trump's properties have experience vary from day to day depending on how he feels, just like his net worth. If you were an accountant, you would understand this.

According to Trump University's accounting department -- Go Fighting Trumpets! -- the proper way to calculate values is to multiply Trump's mood by the number of high fives he recently got and then subtract each time his feelings got hurt by someone's mean tweet. You can't argue with math.

Data miners are the future!

Every job displaced by technology, will be negated by two job openings in data mining!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/uber-self-driving-truck-packed-with-budweiser-makes-first-delivery-in-colorado

So since drivers less cars is the thesis... lets assume all cars are driver-less

How many jobs do you think that is

Has anyone here actually looked at the full data sets of jobs in each sector

Remember I am trying to calculate your 77.5 Million Jobs being lost

Snicker cough cough

Logan--

You missed your calling. I bet you'd be great as Costello in "Who's on First"

It is worth attending just to see the myriads of IHLs with their protest signs fisting each other out front having SJW multiple orgasms and stomping pathetic man-pimples into the pavement. This is Berkeley, and it should be epic.

77.5 Million jobs are to be gone

Snicker.. come out boys lets play the scared American collapse game here

77.5 Million .... who is first ;-)