patrick.net

errc says

You could have bet Trump at better than +600 24 hours ago

Being that none of you did that, you should probably stfu

Which one? I thought only IEM and PredictIt are legal in the US.

I did bet on Mike Pence as VP *last week* at PredictIt. The Trump market was already full and closed.

Peter P says

errc says

You could have bet Trump at better than +600 24 hours ago

Being that none of you did that, you should probably stfu

Which one? I thought only IEM and PredictIt are legal in the US.

I did bet on Mike Pence VP at PredictIt. The Trump market was already full and closed.

It's not the act of the wager that is illegal, it's the Electronic Transfer of Funds per the UIGEA.

Some of the more hokey sites will allow it anyway, i read a friend yesterday used Bovada from the states, I believe.

Peter P says

Have you seen Rush Limbaugh and Michael Moore in the same room?

I don't think they would fit.

FP says

Have you seen a room big enough to fit them bioth?

Yes, but there's none with a floor whose tensile strength is great enough.

I guess in America when you say "a ton of people" it means only 5.

Thanks wog, well analyzed, reasoned and stated. What do you think the future hold for your stock and other holdings?

Stocks are overrated it's just a pool of money for Soros and Buffet play games with.

We need to get back to private industry and prudent saving.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-protest-trump-20161109-story.html

People protesting the election of Donald Trump take to the streets of downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday morning.

Democrats drank the kool-aid from Main Slime Media & pollsters.

How stupid do they feel?

YAY! Inflation, that gift to debtors, hated by debt holders. Way too low inflation for way too long. A sign that only a tiny handful is doing well.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Hillary's idea of an economy is selling each other Chinese solar panels, and that just isn't going to work.

This. And being each other's mortgage broker.

That or have an impoverished existence pouring coffee and wiping Babyboomer butts for the rest of your life. No chance of homeownership, no chance of a better life, not even a few days at the Lake once a year. A precarious existence, so landlords and hedge funders can buy more catamarans.

No Industry, no American Dream.

An IT Industry that refuses to hire over 45 guys with 20+ years experience isn't going to hire former 45-year old steel mill workers who managed to get a Network Admin or .net Certificate

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Bullshit. Obama was the great divider. I believe that Trump can get us back to where were were before Obama.

Agreed. I think many will be surprised by a positive outcome of his presidency. Also for those with kids there will be a childcare deduction and general lower taxes for the middle-to-upper class.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

What proposed capital gains tax cuts? IIRC, the capital gains rates are going to stay as they are now.

Capital gains taxes should be lowered and instead mortgage interest deduction canceled. It's ridiculous to crow about cap. gains taxes while supporting such crony bs as mortgage interest deduction. Also healthcare, a main inflation driver will become cheaper if price-fixing is broken up/prosecuted, FDA meddling reduced and competition across state-lines encouraged. We'll see on how much he delivers on draining the swamp. MAGA!

Heraclitusstudent says

Inflation would come BECAUSE tarifs would result in more done in the US and higher wages. Unless we go in stagflation mode, it's no bad for consumers.

It's bad for corporate profits.

And great for Americans who are drowning in record private debt.

Wait until the Trump Energy Policy gets in place. :)

So how high will my rent go? How more priced out will I be for buying?

Imagine the growth in Energy Stocks when the Trump Energy Plan and the Reindustrialization of America begins.

Imagine all the factories that Japan and China are going to outsource to America when the reciprocal tariffs begin. The property taxes industry will pay again, reducing residential property taxes and sales taxes.

Think of the huge increase in employment and good wages when Civil Engineers and Welders and Bricklayers get hired to droves for the rebuilt infrastructure. The increase in SS payroll taxes. The expansion of Social Security benefits and lowered ages, perhaps with a partial 'mandatory IRA" option with capped flat fees (ie Wall Street limited to $1 a month in fees.)

Old folks getting decent dividends from utility stocks and interest payments from Bonds and CDs.

So beautiful.

We're going to get so tired of winning.

Heraclitusstudent says

Inflation would come BECAUSE tarifs would result in more done in the US and higher wages. Unless we go in stagflation mode, it's no bad for consumers.
It's bad for corporate profits.

I like getting higher wages. It will make it easier to pay for all those made in USA stuff I'm going to buy. Seriously, I have a bunch of old stuff I bought in the 80's that I refuse to replace until I can get a new one made in USA. Both of my cars are made in Michigan, in 1995 and 1999. At least one of them should last me long enough until I can get the made in USA car that I like to replace it.

Heraclitusstudent says

Inflation would come BECAUSE tarifs would result in more done in the US and higher wages. Unless we go in stagflation mode, it's no bad for consumers.

Exactly. Moderate inflation and growth is a sign of a healthy economy.

Besides, who cares if computers or smartphones go up 15% in price, if it creates millions of $13-20/hr jobs?

This is shit you buy once every couple of years. Who buys a huge TV, fridge or washing machine three times a year?

mell says

Also for those with kids there will be a childcare deduction and general lower taxes for the middle-to-upper class.

Honestly, I am really not seeing anything in Trump's tax plan that changes my taxes at all. Income rates are the same, capital gains are the same, increased standard deduction doesn't help me since I itemize and my itemized stuff is about equal to the new higher standard deduction. It might be easier to fill out the fucking form at some point, but even that I am not seeing.

Actually it's not just tariffs, but he talked about more spending (infrastructures and military) and tax cuts, so higher deficits.
More activity and inflation at the price of more debts.
This is why the 10yrs bonds are down.

But either way there can't be inflation without more money in people's pockets. Otherwise higher prices on one product cuts into demand for other products.

Any gain on trade would have to be done slowly and somewhat predictably to avoid destroying companies in the process.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Besides, who cares if computers or smartphones go up 15% in price, if it creates millions of $13-20/hr jobs?

Not me, But I doubt consumer electronics are going to be made in the US on a grand scale like they used to be any time soon or even with a 35% tariff. An example of the type of things I would expect to return to the US would be things like higher end power tools, like the DeWalt's that used to be made in Maryland. I think 600 people here lost their jobs when that factory closed. Hopefully Craftsman tools will also be made in USA again, along with lots and lots of auto parts and appliances.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

I think 600 people here lost their jobs when that factory closed. Hopefully Craftsman tools will also be made in USA again, along with lots and lots of auto parts and appliances.

The one thing he CAN do right away is disallowing the tax deduction for companies relocating abroad. That alone might make Carrier think twice.

Heraclitusstudent says

Actually it's not just tariffs, but he talked about more spending (infrastructures and military) and tax cuts, so higher deficits.

Trump expects to grow the economy - Higher % of the population working and/or making more money than they were before = more tax revenue and less need for social services. It also means more money coming into Social Security. Hence, will more money coming in and less outlays, a tax cut becomes possible (if one can ignore the existing deficit even if it stays the same).

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump expects to grow the economy - Higher % of the population working and/or making more money than they were before = more tax revenue and less need for social services. It also means more money coming into Social Security. Hence, will more money coming in and less outlays

See what's good with Trump?: he made Keynesians out of republicans already.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

All the growth is going to the rich right now. It didn't when we made much of our own shit.

When we made out own shit, jobs were easier to get and paid better in relative terms. Meaning instead of zero or negative wages after inflation for over 30-something years, we will have positive wage growth after inflation. Everyone will get richer.

lostand confused says

I can't hire anybody local, but only through the big H1B firms-which is a shame, when there is a surplus of talent...willing to work at comparable rates.

May I please ask the rationale (actual vs stated)?

Many things are 180 degrees out of phase from what you say young man!

Please see your electoral map. Perhaps you are using inverse rhetoric?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

That is because we're Transitioning into a new Party System. The only question is where the parties end up.

Yep, and that's not yet decided. Hillary's defeat does open the possibility of reform in the Democratic party. Unfortunately, the 1% support for Jill Stein doesn't send a strong enough message to the DNC to force the right reforms. The next few years will be critical. Liberals must demand the reforms of Warren, Sanders, and Stein or else this will all be for nought.

YesYNot says

Silver didn't get it terribly wrong. He gave Trump a 30% chance of winning

Coming from the person who said it wasn't about bring right....

Thanks for the laugh.

And yes, silver was incredibly wrong. 3 TIMES. Even my prediction was 4-5 states more right than silvers.

Dan8267 says

Pretty much everyone who supported Trump thought he was a shoe-in

Not true on Pnet for all, and even Kellyann Conway is having a big "WTF we won" moment. Her polling data was standard polling data as well. Did you hear the campaign tone the past three days up to the election run up? They were ready for a loss as well.

Dan8267 says

The next few years will be critical. Liberals must demand the reforms of Warren, Sanders, and Stein or else this will all be for nought.

I say, burn it down Trump. The disasters will cement liberal and progressive dominance in years to come. Sorry about the supreme court though.

joshuatrio says

And yes, silver was incredibly wrong. 3 TIMES. Even my prediction was 4-5 states more right than silvers.

A broken clock is right twice a day. Try beating silver in three or four elections before you crow. 4-5 times more right? I'm pretty sure you don't even know what you mean by that. A statistician can not accurately predict the result of a coin toss. Only an idiot who successfully predicts the result of such a toss crows about it.

jazz music votes early says

Back when America was great, 1950's and 1960's Republicans were more left-wing than either party is at this time. Thanks to Tea Party, southern strategy, and all the government workers who are always extremely conservative.

Hillary is to the right of Nixon on most issues, including Detente with Russia and Economic Neoliberalism.

YesYNot says

A broken clock is right twice a day. Try beating silver in three or four elections before you crow. 4-5 times more right? I'm pretty sure you don't even know what you mean by that. A statistician can not accurately predict the result of a coin toss. Only an idiot who successfully predicts the result of such a toss crows about it.

I'm sorry Nate didn't live up to your fantasy. And I wouldn't call Nate a statistician since he often let's his own bias get in the way.

www.youtube.com/embed/TeiR5k_u7K4

Hey You:

Trolling is a legitimate form of communication, conversing, conveying info, and otherwise exchanging ideas.

It may not be the most polite, highest, elevated form, but often times, THAT'S THE POINT.

1. Tax breaks for the rich.

Yep, but this would hold on both sides. In the long run, pushing reforms in the Democratic Party is the only way to balance taxes.

2. Elimination of all anti-immigrant rhetoric. If you think you're gonna get a wall, you're insane. There will be no wall nor will there be a ban of Muslims entering the country. Those of you who voted for Trump based on racism are in for a huge shock. You were played.

True on the wall and on Muslims, but anti-immigrant rhetoric will, if anything, increase as Trump fails to deliver on promises.

3. Packed Supreme court.

Abortion rights aren't going away even if the Supreme Court overthrew Roe v. Wade. There would be riots and rebellion. Women are simply too used to having this option to accept having it taken away.

4. Widespread contempt for the United States abroad. Not much you can do about this. Foreigners will begin to see Americans as uneducated slobs who are racist and incapable of rational thought.

And rightfully so. Both the Obama and Bush administrations caused the same. American arrogance, shooting USA is number 1 when it's not by a long shot, and forcing the interests of a few American mega-corps onto the rest of the world must stop.

5. Globalism.

Trump is not going to do anything about globalization. It's impossible to stop globalization. The only thing you can do is shape it. I doubt Trump will do anything to shape globalization in a more socially just manner. I'd love to be wrong about this, but I doubt I am.

6. Obamacare.

Obamacare has both winners and losers. I never supported the ACA particularly because of the individual mandate which was a huge giveaway to the insurance companies without gaining anything in return. The ACA also wasn't a stepping stone to something better. If anything, it's holding back real reform. So I don't care if it's revoked and we have to start over again. The ACA isn't the reform we wanted.

7. War.

War is a big risk with either candidate. Bernie was the anti-war candidate.

8. Civil unrest. The regressive left is going to war and have already started. Watch AntiFa carry out their first true terrorist acts and watch the universities burn. They don't care anymore because they now think they live in Nazi Germany.

I doubt that will happen, but a little civil unrest is good for democracy. The government has to be in constant fear of rebellion in order to not become tyrannical. It's the tree of liberty's natural manure.

9. MASSIVE national debt increases. This one makes me laugh. You're gonna love it!

Likely, but nothing new. The only way to cut the national debt is to slash military spending by 90%. I would be greatly surprised if Trump even cut military spending by 10%. I'd like to be wrong on this though.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

All the growth is going to the rich right now. It didn't when we made much of our own shit.

When we made out own shit, jobs were easier to get and paid better in relative terms. Meaning instead of zero or negative wages after inflation for over 30-something years, we will have positive wage growth after inflation. Everyone will get richer.

Pure fantasy. It's a world economy. You can't put the cheap shipping, cheap airfare, international communications and data interconnection genie back in the bottle.

Do you really think you can slap punitive tariffs on imports and the rest of the world will say that's ok? Other countries will shut down our exports in a heart beat. There isn't anything the US manufactures that can't be sourced from another country. For every job you bring back, most will be robots anyway, 2 export related jobs will be lost. The .1% will work the money flow for a profit whichever way it goes, the average person will be screwed.

jazz music votes early says

Back when America was great, 1950's and 1960's Republicans were more left-wing than either party is at this time. Thanks to Tea Party, southern strategy, and all the government workers who are always extremely conservative.

Add to that the general polarization caused by everyone having a custom news feed that caters to their beliefs and never shows an opinion or fact that challenges those beliefs.

jazz music votes early says

zzyzzx is deplorable says

I like getting higher wages.

Will inflation really just apply to your wages?

Inflation will continue to apply to commodities and stocks, but not to wages.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Hillary is to the right of Nixon on most issues

I said that many times. How anyone calls Hillary a liberal is beyond me.