patrick.net

Key level on 10's broken this morning

If you close above 2.50%

Lower highs and lower lows short term gone

By the way, where are the gold bugs now???

Tenpoundbass says

Are we deadjusting for inflation now?

Core isn't even at 2.5% yet

ECI wage inflation is at 3.9%

Recent reads

In Med Care: Drugs 5.24% vs 5.38% ok. Med Equip -0.79% vs -0.61% ok. Hospital Svcs 4.06% vs 5.64% !, Health Ins 6.93% vs 8.37% !.

Primary Rents: 3.79% vs 3.70%; Owners' Equiv Rent 3.45% vs 3.38%. Lodging away from home 4.37% vs 3.73%. All big jumps.

Housing 2.87% from 2.70%. BIG jump

jazz music says

The Euro may not last much longer and you want to buy it?

You mean the eurozone may not last much longer and I want to buy the euro?

Watch TSLA, but only for tail events.

Tesla can rule the world, but everything needs to go their way. Trump can throw a monkey wrench into their plans.

AAPL may get caught in the crossfire between Trump and China. I doubt a trade war will happen, but stocks trade on expectations.

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

We also learned in this election that GIGO.

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

I laugh at data-driven anything.

Any "methodical" approach can be easily gamed.

zzyzzx is sad says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

Dan8267 says

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

An insult to Ada Lovelace.

Dan8267 says

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

Ivanka 2024 will still look fine.

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

SubOink says

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

TSLA is not hype, but it is a highly parlayed bet.

What I mean by hype is ...the stock price is not based on earnings

But yeah...been eyeing it for a long time - missed the pullback earlier this year to 150 - Elon Musk is the man!

SubOink says

What I mean by hype is ...the stock price is not based on earnings

Few stocks are. It is a game of expectations of expectations of expectations... ad infinitum.

My eyes are bleeding! Logan is here! Make the graphs stop! Mercy!!!!

:)

Logan Mohtashami says

By the way, where are the gold bugs now?

Dollar is going to get MAGA ... then ... squish ...

Logan Mohtashami says

Core isn't even at 2.5% yet

Nothing a little credit expansion and deregulation cannot fix Logan. Here weeeee GOOOOoooooooooo!

SubOink says

But yeah...been eyeing it for a long time - missed the pullback earlier this year to 150 - Elon Musk is the man!

Well, it is a wildcard. Can he deliver on the Model 3? I hope he can, I have one on order. Very excited about self-driving cars.

But there could be troubles. A change in the subsidy structure at the wrong time can be catastrophic.

Peter P is sad says

AAPL may get caught in the crossfire between Trump and China. I doubt a trade war will happen, but stocks trade on expectations.

Not only is the political environment now full of sharks and pitfalls for AAPL, but the competition is caught up, and they no longer have that cool rebel non-mainstream thing going for them. We need the Breitbart of tech companies now.

Rew says

We need the Breitbart of tech companies now.

Who will that be? ;-)

Apple is also facing The Curse of the New HQ.

Let's see if they are just yet another spaceship cult.

Peter P is sad says

SubOink says

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

TSLA is not hype, but it is a highly parlayed bet.

Parlayed to what?

Peter P is sad says

Who will that be? ;-)

Twitter finding no buyers, will be taken over by the right wing and reborn as Bitter.

errc says

Parlayed to what?

Parlayed as in everything has to be right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlay_(gambling)

Rew says

Dollar is going to get MAGA ... then ... squish .

Rew says

Nothing a little credit expansion and deregulation cannot fix Logan

Demographics are more powerful than de regulation

Still a few years away from real expansion

what are you saying logan?

SubOink says

what are you saying logan?

Credit expansion has limits in a light demographic patch.

In a few years you will have better demographics (Debt) revolves around housing demand... high multiplier bing factor on other debt related expansionary metrics.

Not there yet... but in a few years! Yes

This housing cycle, We are very old and very young.. middle = @$$ kicked in the great recession, next cycle... whistle ... demographics and more solid footing from the middle

Fixed debt cost against rising wages

They loved me at the conference with a lot my economic models, got a Triple A +++

First person invited to the conference next year.. they will give me the video on one of my panels...

Better demographics, better debt expansion

The best part ... of a Trump White House

Is watching the pathetic conservative economic people all of sudden not care about

1. Debt
2. LRP Rates
3. 94 Million people not working

etc etc

What is Zero Brain Dead going to do... or the gold bugs or the Anti Fed crew... are they going to war on line with other conservatives

See... you can talk a lot BS when you're not in political power but when you lead... whistle... it all comes back to bite you back

That is the lack of discipline my fellow conservatives showed in the last 8 years

Fun facebook live on the Future of U.S. economics

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10154234591848250/?type=3&theater

Logan Mohtashami says

In a few years you will have better demographics

That will make a lot of homeless people if we don't build affordable homes.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/how-trump-taj-mahal-might-reopen-in-a-few-months/article_00470569-5c9c-5c41-ae57-e844124f6c63.html

How Trump Taj Mahal might reopen in a few months

TLANTIC CITY — Could the recently shuttered Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort be reopened in a couple of months with a different name and workforce?

Some people think so.

Taj Mahal owner Carl Icahn and representatives of the casino have remained silent on the future of the more than 4.2 million-square-foot property since announcing in August that the resort would close. But some, including state Senate President Steve Sweeney, D-Salem, Gloucester, Cumberland, have expressed concerns about the property being closed for a couple of months, then reopening under a different name and without union employees.

The road to reopening the facility might not be that difficult for Icahn. The property’s casino license remains in effect and valid until it is surrendered through a Division of Gaming Enforcement order, said state gaming officials. Typically, casino license surrender can take place several months after a property is closed, officials said.

If Icahn decided to reopen with an operation similar in size and scope to the former Taj Mahal, the property would have to hire 2,500 employees.

The aging property is also in dire need of updating. When Icahn took over the casino hotel, he promised more than $100 million in investment, but he has decided to hold off until after the November North Jersey casino vote.

“Shutting down a casino that is profitable for six months is quite a hit,” said Gordon Lafer, a professor of labor at the University of Oregon, adding the casino market in the city has returned to profitability since four casinos closed in 2014.

In 2015, the property generated $15 million a month in gaming revenue, according to the DGE.

Rebranding a property can give it a new image, said Rummy Pandit, executive director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism at Stockton University.

“When you rebrand a property, you are starting from scratch, in a way,” Pandit said. “You are always going to have an issue with some people knowing it by its previous name, but that isn’t always a bad thing, because there is at least some awareness of you existing in the marketplace. One of the challenges with rebranding is that you have to clearly develop and target market segments all over again.”

The success of the casinos in the Marina District would force the next incarnation of the Taj Mahal to focus on nongaming entertainment if it wants to be successful, said Richard Perniciaro, director of the Center for Regional and Business Research at Atlantic Cape Community College.

“With the recent announcement that the Showboat has been released from its need to be a casino property, it would seem that (Bart) Blatstein and, as also announced, (TEN owner Glenn) Straub understand that to be successful at that end of the Boardwalk and in a shrinking gaming market, noncasino entertainment is a must,” Perniciaro said. “The Taj will need to move in that direction. The marina area is too much of a casino gaming magnet to try to challenge them for market share.”

junkmail says

Hey Dennis.. fuck off. You are not part of this community.

Elitist insider much? Ohhh wait ... makes perfect sense in relation to this thread topic. Establishment 2009 Pnet versus the 2012 newcomer. Dennis is far more the outsiders outsider than you! Drain the swamp! Ban junkmail!

:) teee-heeee

But then Pnet might not exist ... sniff sniff ... what would the world come tooooooooo.

What if I bought a house in 2006 in San Diego?

How much more fiat currency do we have now than in 1997?

just any guy says

What if I bought a house in 2006 in San Diego?

You would have lost nothing. You would have actually gained, because some of the principal balance would have been paid off.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Fourthly, he'll appoint Charles Keating comptroller of the currency

He met an untimely death.

Daaaaaaamn

Rubbing it in on aisle two

Dennis Baughn says

There will be no wall

There will be a wall. Those who want to immigrate to the US legally are welcome, but must get in line like everyone else.

Dennis Baughn says

A deportation force to round up and throw out 11 million undocumented people would be a logistic and economic nightmare

True. Trump only plans on deporting criminals. Good riddance.

Dennis Baughn says

and no ban on Muslims entering the country

Muslims from terrorist countries like saudi Arabia and Pakistan should be banned. We don't need them.

Dennis Baughn says

Funding and maintaining a website that celebrates abject racism, misogyny, and other disgusting behaviors under the guise of "free speech" is another example of a really bad decision. I wouldn't be surprised if he got blackballed from the tech industry.

"Free" speech should NEVER be free of consequence. Words should ALWAYS have consequences, good or bad, or else they are meaningless.

You're pegging Patrick to that? You are off your rocker sir. You're twisting is beyond comprehension.