patrick.net

will cause great damage to our long term economic prospects.

------------

Relative to the path we were on, prior to this election?

You had said a year ago that we were already FUBAR. This was before Trump was in the picture. That we should be building a life boat and an exit strategy. You even said that you didn't want a Democrat to win this election, because when it all comes crashing down (sometime in the next year or two), that you wanted the blood to be on Republicans hands

There may well be a boom, at least in nominal terms.

However, I do not see how the world can settle scores without resorting to a major conflict.

The election of Trump merely changes how that conflict will play out, not if or when.

Are we deadjusting for inflation now?

Peter P is sad says

However, I do not see how the world can settle scores without resorting to a major conflict.

We have just gone through the worlds longest period of peace, and currently have the lowest rates of conflict (historically speaking), ever seen. "Scores" can be settled in multitudes of ways, without going to war ... and our best generals/leaders seek just that.

Enough nationalism is going to create the conflict but conflict isn't an inevitability. The wind is blowing heavily that way. The steady diet of fear, plus economic trouble, has been quite problematic for unity. The question is not when but if we succumb to it.

Have to love the symmetry of it being 100 years since the explosive birth of 20th century and making of the modern world via WWI -> WWII.

Rew says

Enough nationalism is going to create the conflict but conflict isn't an inevitability.

Delaying the conflict will just make it bigger when it happens. Conflicts are kind of like earthquakes.

Peter P is sad says

Delaying the conflict will just make it bigger when it happens. Conflicts are kind of like earthquakes.

Lots of little conflicts ease "the big one".

seems like a no brainer to pick up more stocks and inhale some meth...what to buy...hm...

^^Reactionary con longing for a hereditary ruling family.

Heraclitusstudent says

ETFs: FXE to buy euros, FXF swiss francs, FXY yens.

Gold.

Key level on 10's broken this morning

If you close above 2.50%

Lower highs and lower lows short term gone

By the way, where are the gold bugs now???

Tenpoundbass says

Are we deadjusting for inflation now?

Core isn't even at 2.5% yet

ECI wage inflation is at 3.9%

Recent reads

In Med Care: Drugs 5.24% vs 5.38% ok. Med Equip -0.79% vs -0.61% ok. Hospital Svcs 4.06% vs 5.64% !, Health Ins 6.93% vs 8.37% !.

Primary Rents: 3.79% vs 3.70%; Owners' Equiv Rent 3.45% vs 3.38%. Lodging away from home 4.37% vs 3.73%. All big jumps.

Housing 2.87% from 2.70%. BIG jump

jazz music says

The Euro may not last much longer and you want to buy it?

You mean the eurozone may not last much longer and I want to buy the euro?

Watch TSLA, but only for tail events.

Tesla can rule the world, but everything needs to go their way. Trump can throw a monkey wrench into their plans.

AAPL may get caught in the crossfire between Trump and China. I doubt a trade war will happen, but stocks trade on expectations.

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

We also learned in this election that GIGO.

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

I laugh at data-driven anything.

Any "methodical" approach can be easily gamed.

zzyzzx is sad says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

Dan8267 says

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

An insult to Ada Lovelace.

Dan8267 says

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

Ivanka 2024 will still look fine.

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

SubOink says

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

TSLA is not hype, but it is a highly parlayed bet.

What I mean by hype is ...the stock price is not based on earnings

But yeah...been eyeing it for a long time - missed the pullback earlier this year to 150 - Elon Musk is the man!

SubOink says

What I mean by hype is ...the stock price is not based on earnings

Few stocks are. It is a game of expectations of expectations of expectations... ad infinitum.

My eyes are bleeding! Logan is here! Make the graphs stop! Mercy!!!!

:)

Logan Mohtashami says

By the way, where are the gold bugs now?

Dollar is going to get MAGA ... then ... squish ...

Logan Mohtashami says

Core isn't even at 2.5% yet

Nothing a little credit expansion and deregulation cannot fix Logan. Here weeeee GOOOOoooooooooo!

SubOink says

But yeah...been eyeing it for a long time - missed the pullback earlier this year to 150 - Elon Musk is the man!

Well, it is a wildcard. Can he deliver on the Model 3? I hope he can, I have one on order. Very excited about self-driving cars.

But there could be troubles. A change in the subsidy structure at the wrong time can be catastrophic.

Peter P is sad says

AAPL may get caught in the crossfire between Trump and China. I doubt a trade war will happen, but stocks trade on expectations.

Not only is the political environment now full of sharks and pitfalls for AAPL, but the competition is caught up, and they no longer have that cool rebel non-mainstream thing going for them. We need the Breitbart of tech companies now.

Rew says

We need the Breitbart of tech companies now.

Who will that be? ;-)

Apple is also facing The Curse of the New HQ.

Let's see if they are just yet another spaceship cult.

Peter P is sad says

SubOink says

TSLA is great but damn expensive for hype only

TSLA is not hype, but it is a highly parlayed bet.

Parlayed to what?

Peter P is sad says

Who will that be? ;-)

Twitter finding no buyers, will be taken over by the right wing and reborn as Bitter.

errc says

Parlayed to what?

Parlayed as in everything has to be right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlay_(gambling)

Rew says

Dollar is going to get MAGA ... then ... squish .

Rew says

Nothing a little credit expansion and deregulation cannot fix Logan

Demographics are more powerful than de regulation

Still a few years away from real expansion

what are you saying logan?

SubOink says

what are you saying logan?

Credit expansion has limits in a light demographic patch.

In a few years you will have better demographics (Debt) revolves around housing demand... high multiplier bing factor on other debt related expansionary metrics.

Not there yet... but in a few years! Yes

This housing cycle, We are very old and very young.. middle = @$$ kicked in the great recession, next cycle... whistle ... demographics and more solid footing from the middle

Fixed debt cost against rising wages

They loved me at the conference with a lot my economic models, got a Triple A +++

First person invited to the conference next year.. they will give me the video on one of my panels...

Better demographics, better debt expansion

The best part ... of a Trump White House

Is watching the pathetic conservative economic people all of sudden not care about

1. Debt
2. LRP Rates
3. 94 Million people not working

etc etc

What is Zero Brain Dead going to do... or the gold bugs or the Anti Fed crew... are they going to war on line with other conservatives

See... you can talk a lot BS when you're not in political power but when you lead... whistle... it all comes back to bite you back

That is the lack of discipline my fellow conservatives showed in the last 8 years

Fun facebook live on the Future of U.S. economics

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10154234591848250/?type=3&theater

Logan Mohtashami says

In a few years you will have better demographics

That will make a lot of homeless people if we don't build affordable homes.