patrick.net

Yeah, I see the garbage truck comin around the corner....don't forget your gloves...

Dennis Baughn says

Not for long. My work here is almost done :)

Logan,

If I read your chart right it seems like the next decade has this big lump of young people turning into new home buyers, causing more housing demand. How does this wave of demand align with the other lump on the other side(baby boomers), who I'm guessing will be croaking at about the same time, freeing up housing units?

Den-Den is trying to troll and seems to be a failure.
What if economic geniuses had invested in Home Depot,Apple,Microsoft ,etc.,etc.?
They have become so rich they don't post on patnet,better things to do.

"My goal is to provide a free and open discussion..." & when my feelings are hurt I criticize free speech & those sites that support freedom.
Criticism can't be condemned when it's is spoken by the brilliant.

Gary Anderson says

This girl has one arm the length of a gorilla.

Isn't that racist?

Dennis Baughn says

errc says

And here you still are

Not for long. My work here is almost done :)

I don't think your work here is done at all. I enjoy your trolling very much. Some of your points I've never seen or heard before. You, sir are a true ground breaker. Seriously new ideas here, AND consistent too! Patrick could we pin this gem of a thread to the top of the site?

One last thing Dennis, may I have your permission to reproduce some of your posts? I've taken the trouble to print them out at a greatly enhanced size for my study wall. Whereupon I expect to gaze at them regularly when in need of inspiration.

Let's keep this thread alive!

c1561490 says

(baby boomers), who I'm guessing will be croaking at about the same time, freeing up housing units?

This is a theme a lot people have been using for a massive push up in supply for some time

Harry Dent crowd is predicting a massive 42%-67% decline in home prices based on this thesis

However, natural supply post 1996 ... has kept inventory under 6 months outside of 1 period

2006-2011 ... Feb of 2006 was the first time in the recent 20 year period that we got over 6 months of supply.

The recent economic conference I went to, the 2nd panel I was speaking at was all about the future of home prices with economist and other data analyst. We all have our own models.

However, the one that I can show later when I get the video and article written up

Post 1996 due to big price deviation gains has prevented move up buyers from moving more freely because it's hard to catch a higher price with more net equity

So, longer owners is a theme keeps supply at bay... housing starts shouldn't have been taken off in this cycle ...due to the lack of real strong demand.

Heh, Heh, the fleshlight thread was one of the funniest on Patnet, definitely a Patnet Classic.

He didn't admit to anything dick nose. Bill Clinton shook down a Saudi prince for 20 million.

Logan Mohtashami says

housing starts shouldn't have been taken off in this cycle ...due to the lack of real strong demand.

but they did...

SubOink says

but they did...

Housing starts have had their worst demand curve ever, in fact the biggest complaint in housing has been why haven't starts taken off.

The head economist and the conference with me, we both agreed on this thesis

Due to the over investment thesis of the previous cycle and the single worst demand curve on record for housing by a long shoot too, no reason for starts to have taken off.

A lot people in other economic conference that I attended were all in the camp of 1.5 Million easily by 2015 at the latest...

That's now how housing economics work ... adjust to demographics and demand curve

It's why I wrote that one article

Demographics & Housing Starts

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/05/22/demographics-housing-starts/

New homes sales today, in year 8 of the cycle is basically where you would see at the end curve of a recession ...

There is no reason why starts should be booming with our demographics in this cycle

One of the reasons why the rate of growth slowed down this year is that the mutifamily boom has cooled off

YTD single family is up 10.8%
YTD multifamily even with this last big print ... -1.8% YTD

total starts back to back years in year 7 and 8 will be under 1,200,000 ( higher this year than last for sure)

If I said that to anyone 3,4,5,6 or 7 years ago, nobody, not one economist, housing economist, data analyst would have believed for a second.

Logan Mohtashami says

Heraclitusstudent says

That will make a lot of homeless people if we don't build affordable homes.

Wait until 2020-2024 this isn't the cycle for housing starts and affordable housing

There is a lot of demand now, which is not satisfied.
What makes you think, new demand coming from millennials will be satisfied in 2020.

Heraclitusstudent says

There is a lot of demand now, which is not satisfied.

Mortgage demand has had it's worse demand curve ever recorded in U.S. history ... cash buyers have had their best demand curve ever, by a long shot too, which makes sense with the distress supply out there

2014 adjusting to population was the lowest levels ever recorded, that is a year 5 data line with rates under 5%

If you didn't have the extra % cash buyers, you wouldn't even have too many prints of existing homes sales over 4.5 million

New homes on the other hand

A chart speaks for itself

155 Million plus working
43 year lows in unemployment claims
Lowest interest rate curve, ever in U.S. history

You're not even going to finish over 600K in year 8 with 3 years of miss sales estimate 2 by double digits with higher monthly supply from 2012-2016 than any period from 1999-2005

With all that said, demographics matter, economic equilibrium matters

In the next cycle you have these

1. Better home ownership age demographic

2. More solid middle base.. = better first time owner profile without the 6 million plus loans in delinquency, foreclosures, etc etc

3. College educated dual incomes families

- rent
- date
- mate
- marry

3.5 years plus = kids be much higher in years 2020-2024

Adjusting to demographics, ages 30-34 the M's have been buying and actually make up over 50% of the homes bought now in the cycle.

M's are now breaching that key age 30-34 level, that group, those who are educated and skilled are buying.

Question really is ...

How much volume traction can you get on the new home purchase side of the equation, existing homes are much cheaper and have a geographic advantage over new homes.

Because new homes are big and expensive, if the builders build more smaller homes which we have seen recently, that's a plus plus for housing...

This chart right here is the most bullish chart for housing I can think off for the new home sector

You want to see a cool down in median sales price growth which is a make shift model pricing from lower priced homes, that's what you need to break over 775K of total new home sales.

You have a low bar to beat on new home sales until you get to 675K-775K ... after that you're going to need to earn it ... 2 years until that 675K -775K is the starting point at minimum.. could take 3-4 years

www.youtube.com/embed/MeM_l5mkyYc

Breaking! Incorporating recent leaks and IRS documents, this short video best explains the dangerous agenda, strategy and tactics of the Soros network, in America. Stand with Christian patriots, for the world God so loves. Produced by: the Awareness Project.

www.youtube.com/embed/1ebVyg-vFBs

www.youtube.com/embed/lhqqz3QFQKE

You won't believe the George Soros tactics Hollywood is employing to promote the new movie 'Birth of a Nation', and you'll get a real kick out of what trillionaire Lynn Forester de Rothschild has to say about her puppet Hillary.

www.youtube.com/embed/HsWjMIkLy0M

www.youtube.com/embed/p8Ux5b6YM9A

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-19/ron-paul-exposes-real-fake-media

www.youtube.com/embed/Yi0fKP8dlIc

Andy Hoffman joins me to discuss TRUMPflation, the demise of global fiat currencies, the insanity of India's cash ban - and the blatant TREASON of George Soros.

www.youtube.com/embed/lHHtVC75g1c

Spiritcooking depravity that Hillary Clinton's staffers partake in. So at least Trump is picking the right people to take this beast on... General Flynn knows, or he wouldn't tweet about it.

www.youtube.com/embed/P-od8Aoe8rM

Anon has discovered that the Podesta Comet Ping Pong photos contain encrypted data which if decoded my lead to smoking gun evidence of pedophilia. But even more stunning is the news that according to FBI and intelligence sources, the Podesta brothers were in Portugal on May 3, 2007, the date of the disappearance of Madeleine McCann. Now that Trump has appointed Jeff Sessions to be the new Attorney General of the United States, we call on Mr. Sessions and Mr. Trump to drain the Pedo ring swamp. Guest: V, The Guerrilla Economist.

What "The Worst Bond Rout In 15 Years" Means For Stocks

In light of the dramatic spike in interest rates since the Trump victory, where as we reported yesterday and as Bloomberg comments overnight, "yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries posted their steepest back-to-back weekly increase since 2001" leading to the "the worst rout in the fixed-income universe in 15 years"...

... and which coupled with a surge in the 10-Year breakeven rate - a gauge of US consumer price expectations - to the highest in more than 18 months...

... has led to the biggest, and so far unanswered, question on Wall Street trader's minds: at what level will rising interest rates pressure risk assets, and become "self-defeating", leading to broader market selloff.

Yesterday, we presented out one argument from SocGen, shown in the table below, which tried to answer this question, and found that there is still some modest breathing room, of just under 30 basis points for US 10Y yield before bond yields start "hurting equities."

However, as we also showed in light of yesterday's market performance, this critical inflection point may have already arrived, because on Friday for the first time since the Trump election, stocks and bonds both fell at the same time:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/11/16/20161118_drop1_0.jpg

The move prompted Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock to tell Bloomberg in an interview that "the paradigm has shifted in terms of inflation. Long-end interest rates are dangerous. Make sure you are being really careful about the long-end exposure as we saw this week."

To be sure, from a purely technical basis, the bond market may be on the verge of yet another major breakout higher in yields, one which could see the 10Y sliding from its current level of 2.35% all the way to 3%: assuming trendline stops are taken out, the move may be just as violent and rapid as the recent surge from 1.78% a mere two weeks ago.

The above likely means that - at a strictly macro level - the answer how much further bond yields can rise before shattering the eerie stock market calm, will likely be answered shortly.

However, in addition to macro, one should also consider the micro, and it is here that the ongoing bond rout may have more far-reaching consequences. Recall that one month ago we posted a warning from Barclays according to which "The Party Is Almost Over As Payouts Exceed Cash Flow By $115 Billion." The implication was simple: with companies relying extensively on debt to fund stock repuchases, rising rates may soon put an end to corporate repuchases, which as Goldman recently said, were the biggest source of equity demand in recent years.

In fact, as we reported earlier today, according to Goldman, stock buybacks and dividend payments - a main reason for future S&P 500 upside - are now expected to account for a whopping 48% of total shareholder payouts in 2017, representing 48% of the total cash spent by S&P500 firms in the next year, and the most since 2007.

Buybacks alone are expected to amount to 30% of this $2.6 trllion in cash outlays (boosted by Trump's "repatriation tax holiday") or a massive $780 billion, an increase of 30% compared to 2016.

www.youtube.com/embed/_dLWv6ONtd8

Soros's age is mentioned on video to be 64 - because it contains a compilation of old and new clips. His date of birth is August 12, 1930, making him 86 as of August 2016.

www.youtube.com/embed/W7I92r9GqUw

Donald Trump continues his victorious path through the US presidential election 2016. After forcefully succeeding president Obama he faces the globalists and their puppets.

Damn Snopes and the Tampa Times should have done a better job Fact Checking.

Move over, Breitbart.

That's pretty funny coming from PRI, which is essentially the same as NPR.

PRI and NPR both push a very specific agenda of globalization and suppression of all dissent from politically correct dogma.

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Macedonian teens made up and circulated false news stories in the US election

Beware of Greeks bearing news.

OK, not Greeks, but close enough.

http://heatst.com/politics/the-mainstream-media-has-only-itself-to-blame-for-the-fake-news-epidemic/

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/565480493550821376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

www.youtube.com/embed/FkTd8lbFGHE

www.youtube.com/embed/rdwSfahCVww