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2005 Apr 11, 5:00pm 188,662 views 117,730 comments
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housing starts shouldn't have been taken off in this cycle ...due to the lack of real strong demand.
but they did...
_
2016 Nov 20, 11:02am
but they did...
Housing starts have had their worst demand curve ever, in fact the biggest complaint in housing has been why haven't starts taken off.
The head economist and the conference with me, we both agreed on this thesis
Due to the over investment thesis of the previous cycle and the single worst demand curve on record for housing by a long shoot too, no reason for starts to have taken off.
A lot people in other economic conference that I attended were all in the camp of 1.5 Million easily by 2015 at the latest...
That's now how housing economics work ... adjust to demographics and demand curve
It's why I wrote that one article
Demographics & Housing Starts
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/05/22/demographics-housing-starts/
New homes sales today, in year 8 of the cycle is basically where you would see at the end curve of a recession ...
There is no reason why starts should be booming with our demographics in this cycle
_
2016 Nov 20, 11:07am
One of the reasons why the rate of growth slowed down this year is that the mutifamily boom has cooled off
YTD single family is up 10.8%
YTD multifamily even with this last big print ... -1.8% YTD
_
2016 Nov 20, 11:09am
total starts back to back years in year 7 and 8 will be under 1,200,000 ( higher this year than last for sure)
If I said that to anyone 3,4,5,6 or 7 years ago, nobody, not one economist, housing economist, data analyst would have believed for a second.
Heraclitusstudent
2016 Nov 20, 1:04pm
That will make a lot of homeless people if we don't build affordable homes.
Wait until 2020-2024 this isn't the cycle for housing starts and affordable housing
There is a lot of demand now, which is not satisfied.
What makes you think, new demand coming from millennials will be satisfied in 2020.
_
2016 Nov 20, 1:49pm
There is a lot of demand now, which is not satisfied.
Mortgage demand has had it's worse demand curve ever recorded in U.S. history ... cash buyers have had their best demand curve ever, by a long shot too, which makes sense with the distress supply out there
2014 adjusting to population was the lowest levels ever recorded, that is a year 5 data line with rates under 5%
If you didn't have the extra % cash buyers, you wouldn't even have too many prints of existing homes sales over 4.5 million
New homes on the other hand
A chart speaks for itself
155 Million plus working
43 year lows in unemployment claims
Lowest interest rate curve, ever in U.S. history
You're not even going to finish over 600K in year 8 with 3 years of miss sales estimate 2 by double digits with higher monthly supply from 2012-2016 than any period from 1999-2005
With all that said, demographics matter, economic equilibrium matters
In the next cycle you have these
1. Better home ownership age demographic
2. More solid middle base.. = better first time owner profile without the 6 million plus loans in delinquency, foreclosures, etc etc
3. College educated dual incomes families
- rent
- date
- mate
- marry
3.5 years plus = kids be much higher in years 2020-2024
_
2016 Nov 20, 1:50pm
Adjusting to demographics, ages 30-34 the M's have been buying and actually make up over 50% of the homes bought now in the cycle.
_
2016 Nov 20, 1:53pm
M's are now breaching that key age 30-34 level, that group, those who are educated and skilled are buying.
_
2016 Nov 20, 1:58pm
Question really is ...
How much volume traction can you get on the new home purchase side of the equation, existing homes are much cheaper and have a geographic advantage over new homes.
Because new homes are big and expensive, if the builders build more smaller homes which we have seen recently, that's a plus plus for housing...
This chart right here is the most bullish chart for housing I can think off for the new home sector
You want to see a cool down in median sales price growth which is a make shift model pricing from lower priced homes, that's what you need to break over 775K of total new home sales.
You have a low bar to beat on new home sales until you get to 675K-775K ... after that you're going to need to earn it ... 2 years until that 675K -775K is the starting point at minimum.. could take 3-4 years
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 3:00pm
www.youtube.com/embed/MeM_l5mkyYc
Breaking! Incorporating recent leaks and IRS documents, this short video best explains the dangerous agenda, strategy and tactics of the Soros network, in America. Stand with Christian patriots, for the world God so loves. Produced by: the Awareness Project.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 3:04pm
www.youtube.com/embed/lhqqz3QFQKE
You won't believe the George Soros tactics Hollywood is employing to promote the new movie 'Birth of a Nation', and you'll get a real kick out of what trillionaire Lynn Forester de Rothschild has to say about her puppet Hillary.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 3:17pm
www.youtube.com/embed/Yi0fKP8dlIc
Andy Hoffman joins me to discuss TRUMPflation, the demise of global fiat currencies, the insanity of India's cash ban - and the blatant TREASON of George Soros.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 3:38pm
www.youtube.com/embed/lHHtVC75g1c
Spiritcooking depravity that Hillary Clinton's staffers partake in. So at least Trump is picking the right people to take this beast on... General Flynn knows, or he wouldn't tweet about it.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 3:39pm
www.youtube.com/embed/P-od8Aoe8rM
Anon has discovered that the Podesta Comet Ping Pong photos contain encrypted data which if decoded my lead to smoking gun evidence of pedophilia. But even more stunning is the news that according to FBI and intelligence sources, the Podesta brothers were in Portugal on May 3, 2007, the date of the disappearance of Madeleine McCann. Now that Trump has appointed Jeff Sessions to be the new Attorney General of the United States, we call on Mr. Sessions and Mr. Trump to drain the Pedo ring swamp. Guest: V, The Guerrilla Economist.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 4:06pm
What "The Worst Bond Rout In 15 Years" Means For Stocks
In light of the dramatic spike in interest rates since the Trump victory, where as we reported yesterday and as Bloomberg comments overnight, "yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries posted their steepest back-to-back weekly increase since 2001" leading to the "the worst rout in the fixed-income universe in 15 years"...
... and which coupled with a surge in the 10-Year breakeven rate - a gauge of US consumer price expectations - to the highest in more than 18 months...
... has led to the biggest, and so far unanswered, question on Wall Street trader's minds: at what level will rising interest rates pressure risk assets, and become "self-defeating", leading to broader market selloff.
Yesterday, we presented out one argument from SocGen, shown in the table below, which tried to answer this question, and found that there is still some modest breathing room, of just under 30 basis points for US 10Y yield before bond yields start "hurting equities."
However, as we also showed in light of yesterday's market performance, this critical inflection point may have already arrived, because on Friday for the first time since the Trump election, stocks and bonds both fell at the same time:
The move prompted Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock to tell Bloomberg in an interview that "the paradigm has shifted in terms of inflation. Long-end interest rates are dangerous. Make sure you are being really careful about the long-end exposure as we saw this week."
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 4:10pm
To be sure, from a purely technical basis, the bond market may be on the verge of yet another major breakout higher in yields, one which could see the 10Y sliding from its current level of 2.35% all the way to 3%: assuming trendline stops are taken out, the move may be just as violent and rapid as the recent surge from 1.78% a mere two weeks ago.
The above likely means that - at a strictly macro level - the answer how much further bond yields can rise before shattering the eerie stock market calm, will likely be answered shortly.
However, in addition to macro, one should also consider the micro, and it is here that the ongoing bond rout may have more far-reaching consequences. Recall that one month ago we posted a warning from Barclays according to which "The Party Is Almost Over As Payouts Exceed Cash Flow By $115 Billion." The implication was simple: with companies relying extensively on debt to fund stock repuchases, rising rates may soon put an end to corporate repuchases, which as Goldman recently said, were the biggest source of equity demand in recent years.
In fact, as we reported earlier today, according to Goldman, stock buybacks and dividend payments - a main reason for future S&P 500 upside - are now expected to account for a whopping 48% of total shareholder payouts in 2017, representing 48% of the total cash spent by S&P500 firms in the next year, and the most since 2007.
Buybacks alone are expected to amount to 30% of this $2.6 trllion in cash outlays (boosted by Trump's "repatriation tax holiday") or a massive $780 billion, an increase of 30% compared to 2016.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 7:00pm
www.youtube.com/embed/_dLWv6ONtd8
Soros's age is mentioned on video to be 64 - because it contains a compilation of old and new clips. His date of birth is August 12, 1930, making him 86 as of August 2016.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 7:03pm
www.youtube.com/embed/W7I92r9GqUw
Donald Trump continues his victorious path through the US presidential election 2016. After forcefully succeeding president Obama he faces the globalists and their puppets.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Nov 20, 7:48pm
Damn Snopes and the Tampa Times should have done a better job Fact Checking.
Patrick
2016 Nov 20, 8:02pm
That's pretty funny coming from PRI, which is essentially the same as NPR.
PRI and NPR both push a very specific agenda of globalization and suppression of all dissent from politically correct dogma.
Dan8267
2016 Nov 20, 8:35pm
APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says
Macedonian teens made up and circulated false news stories in the US election
Beware of Greeks bearing news.
OK, not Greeks, but close enough.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 8:44pm
www.youtube.com/embed/Gn-RvN54Eos
Welcome to New World Next Week the video series from Corbett Report and Media Monarchy that covers some of the most important developments in open source intelligence news.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 8:45pm
www.youtube.com/embed/1eRFTHD2CTg
This documentary about George Soros was made from a compilation of different video clips that I have watched, downloaded and edited.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 8:46pm
www.youtube.com/embed/9aETpLQ7WcM
In this video Dan Dicks of Press For Truth warns Canadians about an upcoming coup currently being carried out by the Soros family who are now trying to "help" Canadian refugees migrate to Canada.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 8:48pm
www.youtube.com/embed/1bcCYdU5Uoo
Soros has been working REALLY hard for Hillarys election. (Maybe because his son was friends with Kaine.) Hes got an agenda to run.
ChapulinColorado
2016 Nov 20, 8:50pm
www.youtube.com/embed/baNZ6OBHL9U
Within hours of Donald J. Trump's victory being declared, Facebook was accused of affecting the elections outcome by failing to stop bogus stories. Now, the social network is thinking about ways to deal with fake news.
Dan8267
2016 Nov 20, 8:58pm
APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says
Careful how you frame FYROM in mixed company.
Don't worry, the Macedonians love me. They just gave me this pretty giant statue of a pony. They must know I like ponies.
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