patrick.net

Boys are different. You should be happy about that. Without their horniness the race would not survive.

If you are not rich and suppor Trump, you are definitely an idiot. If you are rich, you are not an idiot Trump supporter.

Lets review this once again

2016 start, market was falling, everyone flipped out again, someone talked about 20% correction

www.youtube.com/embed/PEE4N3DUOh0

Then some talked about how the dollar makes it's biggest % run before the rate hike, oil collapse buy HP now because the dollar doesn't really move that much higher

Majority of the down draft comes from the mining and oil sector which will be short lived

Look for highs in Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 when earnings get positive and we are there today

All time stamped

#USA

I love hindsight! Next let's do what if I had bought Apple stock in the late 80's when they almost went out of business.

S&P: All-time High
Dow: All-time High
Russell 2000: All-time High
MidCap 400: All-time High
Happy Thanksgiving 🦃

Logan Mohtashami says

S&P: All-time High

Dow: All-time High

Russell 2000: All-time High

MidCap 400: All-time High

Happy Thanksgiving 🦃

Don't forget
Home ownership rate lowest in 50 years
Rents super high relative to income
Health insurance most unaffordable ever

Continuing on the path to Feudalism

Untill the crumbling happens. And that usually happens fast

Logan I know you're smart as hell. No offense. There were geniuses before you who were wrong! You sound like one

tr6 says

Home ownership rate lowest in 50 years

Rents super high relative to income

Health insurance most unaffordable ever

Continuing on the path to Feudalism

May get there faster if Trump turns out be a regular "supply-side" BS Republican.

We all need to admit that women and men are not the same.
Starting with feminists.

tr6 says

Home ownership rate lowest in 50 years

You're talking to a guy who has said for years the real home ownership rate is between 62.2% - 62.7% for years now ... we got to 62.9% and currently at 63.5%

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/28/homeownership-rates-fall-again/

But still first time home buyers make up 50% of the activity today.. that is what we call demographics son

You guys on this site are way to extreme left and right ... lack discipline .

Never seen such miserable people outside the Russian Trolls ... they have a excuse to miserable

tr6 says

Home ownership rate lowest in 50 years

More than 50% own their own homes.
America is the most housed nation in the world.
Trump will make loans easier to get.
Enjoy the holidays, good times are right round the corner.

Strategist says

Trump will make loans easier to get.

The same way Bush did which resulted in the biggest housing bubble/crash?

I am curious why all of sudden Republicans don't care about debt growth anymore. It was the biggest topic of 2010 Republican campaign.

tr6 says

The same way Bush did which resulted in the biggest housing bubble/crash?

Lending standards won't ease .. I promise you that.. any over lay changes will be minor in nature, QM CFPB is protected and banks if they wanted to could allow any loan they want, they just won't have any legal protection.

Housing will grow only on demand growing not by exotic loans or lying on any application. Those days are done! #USA and we are stronger as a nation for it

Strategist says

Trump will make loans easier to get.

So far at higher rates.

Logan Mohtashami says

Lending standards won't ease

Wanna bet?

Logan Mohtashami says

Housing will grow only on demand growing not by exotic loans or lying on any application. Those days are done! #USA and we are stronger as a nation for it

Lending conditions are too tight. They are suffocating the housing industry. If we don't ease up, we will have higher home prices, less building, higher rents, and higher mortgage payments for the first time buyers.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Trump will make loans easier to get.

So far at higher rates.

Homes are still affordable in most of the nation. California first time buyers are screwed.

Strategist says

Homes are still affordable in most of the nation. California first time buyers are screwed.

That's true. CA home ownership rate is only 54%. Higher rates will not help here.

tr6 says

Strategist says

Homes are still affordable in most of the nation. California first time buyers are screwed.

That's true. CA home ownership rate is only 54%. Higher rates will not help here.

Another missed opportunity by those expecting a crash. Buying a home anytime in the last 6 years would have been profitable. The next 4 years will be profitable too, but the stubborn pessimists will still not get it.

Strategist says

Wanna bet?

100% will bet, under no legal jurisdiction can the Qualified Mortgage be over turn.

They will never bring back stated income for wage earners or option arm loans for stated income.. all that is done with.

Legal ramifications of any bank to give loans out to people who can't afford them.. no money in it and all it can do is bring massive fines and possible jail time

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Wanna bet?

100% will bet, under no legal jurisdiction can the Qualified Mortgage be over turn.

They will never bring back stated income for wage earners or option arm loans for stated income.. all that is done with.

HA ha ha. Stated income, regardless of credit is already available with 50% down.
East West Bank
Cathay Pacific Bank

Strategist says

HA ha ha. Stated income, regardless of credit is already available with 50% down.

Under no legal structure will Q.M. be absolved

Any bank can give any loan they want... but they will have no legal protection.

Strategist says

The next 4 years will be profitable too, but the stubborn pessimists will still not get it.

Considering selling mine in the spring and putting proceeds in CA munis.

tr6 says

Strategist says

The next 4 years will be profitable too, but the stubborn pessimists will still not get it.

Considering selling mine in the spring and putting proceeds in CA munis.

How can you expect prices to go down in the middle of a severe shortage? The only question is, how much will homes appreciate by. I was expecting 10%+ in OC in 2016, but sadly we are only getting 6%.
I'm expecting 2017 will be much higher.

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

HA ha ha. Stated income, regardless of credit is already available with 50% down.

Under no legal structure will Q.M. be absolved

Any bank can give any loan they want... but they will have no legal protection.

Who cares about legal protection to the banks. The banks have 50% protection in collateral, which is far more desirable.

Strategist says

Who cares about legal protection to the banks. The banks have 50% protection in collateral, which is far more desirable.

Freddie, Fannie, FHA, VA and other banks who procedure almost all the loans in America don't offer that product

It's a collateral loan that rich people do

How many people in America can put 50% down? Barely have 3.5%

Lending under government mandate will not absolve QM

Your loan is a very small portion of the total product line

That's all that matter, the system is not protected from the corrupt and nobody will ever bring back those horrible loans ever again.

End of story

Strategist says

The next 4 years will be profitable too, but the stubborn pessimists will still not get it.

Home prices going up is bad.
You are the pessimist.

Strategist says

I'm expecting 2017 will be much higher.

Rates dropped this year all the way to mid September helping house prices. Now they are almost 1% from this year's lows (1.38 on the 10 year treasury in July, and as high as 2.40 today). I think it will have negative effect on the prices next year.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

The next 4 years will be profitable too, but the stubborn pessimists will still not get it.

Home prices going up is bad.

You are the pessimist.

I'm biased because I have a bunch of properties. At the same time I want everyone who wants a home, to have a home.

tr6 says

Strategist says

I'm expecting 2017 will be much higher.

Rates dropped this year all the way to mid September helping house prices. Now they are almost 1% from this year's lows (1.38 on the 10 year treasury in July, and as high as 2.40 today). I think it will have negative effect on the prices next year.

That's a significant jump in rates. I still think California home prices will take a large jump. The affordability indexes are no where near the lows.

Strategist says

America is the most housed nation in the world.

Romania. India and Brazil are also have a higher percentage of ownership than the US by far.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Want to know why Romania and much of Eastern Europe is so high? Many allowed their residents to take possession of the place they were living under Communism.

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

Many allowed their residents to take possession of the place they were living under Communism.

Many did own their residences under communism. That is how they survived after its fall.

Strategist says

I'm still trying to get raped by Middle School teachers.

Maybe you should join the PTA. :)

Logan Mohtashami says

S&P: All-time High

Dow: All-time High

Russell 2000: All-time High

MidCap 400: All-time High

Happy Thanksgiving 🦃

Yep - but its all banks and energy stocks for the most part. So unless you were on those...your portfolio may not look as great as the all time high message sounds.
And the question remains...will this rally hold? What do you think Logan?

SubOink says

So unless you were on those.

Ticker symbol MASI ... All time high is week ;-) , actually sold some more this weekSubOink says

What do you think Logan?

Breath early on wasn't good here, obviously banks who have been under performing got a lift on theory only. You can make a case that bank margin interest has bottomed

NYSE 52 weeks highs I think running over 500 now, that a high we haven't seen since 2013

All yields are rising together ... Next point line I am looking at on our 10's is over 2.50% now

It's a bit over done short term

As always, economic cycle data matters, when due margins get pressured to the point where top line revenue really needs to kick in.

The big difference between this last cycle and now is that we are running into a stronger demographic patch

This is damning evidence...

Logan says

They will never bring back stated income for wage earners or option arm loans for stated income.. all that is done with.

Strategist says: HA ha ha. Stated income, regardless of credit is already available with 50% down.

East West Bank

Cathay Pacific Bank

Ranina ranina says

This is damning evidence...

Big difference between traditional GSE, FHA, VA loans and then these Non QM loans.

We had access to bank statement loans with 30% down, the ability of people to do these loans are very very small. In fact they were the real 1% of society.

Stated income loans, option arm, 40 year amortization loans have been banned only on getting legal protection ....

We have access to interest only loans, but they're based on the capacity to own the debt on a 20 year amortization payment

These are rich man's loans that very few people can do

In that debate I had on housing finance at the conference... I let the lords of facts shoot down on those who said lending is tight for poor cash flow Americans

We will never forget the horror of loose lending in this country and will fight it to the gates of Hell

Being a Met coal guy, the rise in steel is the most glaring thing I have seen in this recent time