patrick.net

Head economist at core logic Sam and I always push this chart for those who can't grasp demographics

Why I say years 2020-2024 will be better than this cycle

Household formation to adjust to age demographic = better mortgage demand numbers

As the internals are going to look better like they did in 2016

Higher mortgage buyers, lower cash buyers total sales doesn't grow much but it's turning, the M's are getting old enough to buy

All we could talk about with economist here is about demographics with professionals ... people with degrees that study demographics and the Pat.net all that matters is price ... don't care about the single most powerful economic force ever

Demographics!!!

Can't read data

No housing bubble what so ever in America

and No the builders were never going to move to their 50 year average of 1.5 Million starts not with the demographics in this cycle

They were smarter than all of you!

Guess what, they own that business you guys don't

Deal with!

"I just provided all my data... which I do with real people ... not boy band trolls who hide behind false narrative theories. 20 years of data on my side and I got a rag tag yapping away without data. This is exactly my point..You guys can't read data properly"

Your problem is you don't understand the topic. All of your data is irrelevant. You think someone was arguing that low inventory was causing low sales numbers. Nobody here was theorizing that.

What Herc originally said was that we need more housing stock to drive prices down. And he is 100% correct. You have not and cannot present any data to dispute that.

joeyjojojunior says

ou have not and cannot present any data to dispute that.

Again, you can't even read what I said let alone actually read the charts that I put up

At least you have the common sense to hide behind a fake name, I give you that at least

Come on... bring it... bring me this logic... I can't wait

"Again, you can't even read what I said let alone actually read the charts that I put up At least you have the common sense to hide behind a fake name, I give you that at least"

OK--so explain in your own words how those charts are relevant to the topic of low housing inventory is causing home prices to rise.

Logan Mohtashami says

This is why none of you speak at conferences

Hey, hey, easy there.

joeyjojojunior says

low housing inventory is causing home prices to rise.

I am going to to say this in English because we all speak it

Excuse the capital letters

POST 1996 WHEN HOME PRICES DEVIATED FROM HISTORICAL NORMS, THE ABILITY TO MOVE UP FOR A HOME BUYERS WAS CONSTRAINED, THUS CREATING A NATURAL SUPPLY CURVE FOR HOME SUPPLY TO BE UNDER 6 MONTHS

AS THE CHAIN OF HOMES BEING BUILT SINCE 1975...

Were bigger and bigger homes, ... hence the housing inflation metric is based more on size of new construction

Remember, I went to all these conference in 2012-2013, everyone was way too bullish on home sales and housing starts because they didn't adjust to the over investment thesis of the last cycle running right into the demographic patch of this

Perfect openings for a demographic guy like me

"POST 1996 WHEN HOME PRICES DEVIATED FROM HISTORICAL NORMS, THE ABILITY TO MOVE UP FOR A HOME BUYERS WAS CONSTRAINED, THUS CREATING A NATURAL SUPPLY CURVE FOR HOME SUPPLY TO BE UNDER 6 MONTHS

AS THE CHAIN OF HOMES BEING BUILT SINCE 1975..."

Except I'm not arguing about what the months supply should or shouldn't be. I'm saying that if prices are rising--it, by definition, means demand is higher than supply. If the issue was that people couldn't afford the higher prices, then prices would fall until sales could be made. That's what always happens in a free market. The fact that prices are rising means that isn't the case.

Hazard of the occupation. If only cops still saw things that way...

"You keep saying the policies pushed by the Democrats, which also include globalization in its current form, are the solution"

Clinton does not equal Democrats.

Hilarious PAT.NET people are saying they're smarter that public traded builders

Just open a home building company and build homes like crazy

More to the reasons why the builders can't build

Heraclitusstudent says

This is the heart of the policies that caused the stagnation for western workers. And it is something you seem to favor in every political comment you are making.

I find it interesting that the big clamor about changing or reversing the offshoring of our jobs is happening now, when the globalization of manufacturing is practically over.

That's probably becasue the owners want policies that will bring production back here since soon robots will be doing the labor. Of course that won't particularly help the unskilled workers out there.

"Hilarious PAT.NET people are saying they're smarter that public traded builders Just open a home building company and build homes like crazy More to the reasons why the builders can't build"

Are you having discussions with the voices in your head or something? Who says they are smarter than builders?

Builders want rising prices. Of course they aren't going to overbuild. But, it's better for the economy to have pretty much stable prices and for housing costs to take up much less of one's income.

joeyjojojunior says

Clinton does not equal Democrats.

No? Who else is there? Donna Brazile?

"No? Who else is there? Donna Brazile?"

Well, you can start by looking at the voting record of Senators and Reps.

joeyjojojunior says

Builders want rising prices. Of course they aren't going to overbuild

Since you can't read a data ... let me give you an article with words

Why Building More Homes Won’t Help Housing Affordability

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/25/why-building-more-homes-wont-help-housing-affordability/

"Since you can't read a data ... let me give you an article with words Why Building More Homes Won’t Help Housing Affordability"

I'm laughing at your idiotic article. I certainly didn't say we had a shortage of mansions. Regardless, building more homes ABSOLUTELY will help housing affordability. Even if you only built new 3000 sq foot homes, the effect would trickle down to every segment, with lower prices everywhere. This should be easy to see.

PLEASE... keep this act up!!!

You're all making my points ... about the internet .. which is my 15 year project :-)

Typical Logan.

joeyjojojunior says

Typical Logan.

Just read it and you will know what I am talking about
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/25/why-building-more-homes-wont-help-housing-affordability/

No Housing Bubble in America today because there is no speculation demand what so ever, most real demand curve ever and the safest buyers ever!

That is what the thread was is about..

"Just read it and you will know what I am talking about"

I read it and commented on why it is wrong in my last post.

joeyjojojunior says

Regardless, building more homes ABSOLUTELY will help housing affordability.

This is where I trap people in the debate... I will give you guys a course on how to do this

1 . Did the building from 1994-2007 create cheaper housing or was that the most expensive housing market ever

"This is where I trap people in the debate... I will give you guys a course on how to do this 1 . Did the building from 1994-2007 create cheaper housing or was that the most expensive housing market ever"

Logan--please don't continue this. I promise you are going to look like a fool.

http://www.env-econ.net/supply_demand.html

joeyjojojunior says

Logan--please don't continue this. I promise you are going to look like a fool.

Answer the question?

Logan Mohtashami says

So answer the question

If you don't want to answer the question that is fine, a lot people realize what they got them selves into once they take 2 minutes to think about it

;-)

This is why none of you own a home building company

I ask you honestly Logan--do you understand the theory of supply and demand and how it relates to prices?

joeyjojojunior says

I ask you honestly Logan--do you understand the theory of supply and demand and how it relates to prices?

Logan Mohtashami says

So answer the question, did all that building, one of the highest building rates in decades create cheaper housing

Logan Mohtashami says

So answer the question,

Again, if you feel trapped, don't feel bad... remember it's a trap question

"So answer the question, did all that building, one of the highest building rates in decades create cheaper housing"

Yes, it created cheaper housing than would have existed absent the building boom. The higher prices were driven by the excess demand caused by the underwriting standards being abandoned.

So now answer mine. Do you understand supply and demand?

joeyjojojunior says

Yes, it created cheaper housing

This is why none of you own a professional home building company

Wow--using CIC's trick of cutting off my answer? Well done.

Purposely disingenuous. Popular trolling trick.

joeyjojojunior says

If you couldn't muster up the courage to buy in 2011-2013, I'm not really sure what you are waiting for?

you're right! i'm a nervous nelly! too much of a think!