patrick.net

gbenson says

Plus now that I am aware of the relationship between the HOA and the owner of the rest of the units, I know whose unit would get the yukky end of the proverbial stick.

Yes, I've heard of this happening in boomtime condo developments -- weird collusion between HOAs and insider owners that screws the minority owners.

gbenson says

didn't want to sound too harsh on our rejection of the sellers 'counter' if the consensus is that I am just over-reacting.

No, nothing over-reacting here. You are exhibiting a natural response. You are probably correct that even $42K in this development would probably be a mistake. It is perfectly rational not to overbid in this scenario. It is only during the boom that people became comfortable with rampant overbidding, and it was a bad thing. You are perfectly correct to worry about whether you are getting the right value here.

corntrollio says

By the way, someone was telling me about how their parents bought in Los Altos for 1:1 income to house value ratio back in the 70s. I think the raw number was something like $100-120K, which was quite a considerable income back in those days.

Even for employer like HP that would be way way high in compensation back in the day. Different mentality back than.

I would look to Route 128 which had more hitech employers/ees and higher incomes.

"In 1955, Business Week ran an article titled "New England Highway Upsets Old Way of Life" and referred to Route 128 as "the Magic Semicircle". By 1958, it needed to be widened from six to eight lanes, and business growth continued. In 1957, there were 99 companies employing 17,000 workers along 128; in 1965, 574; in 1973, 1,212. In the 1980s, the positive effects of this growth on the Massachusetts economy were dubbed the "Massachusetts Miracle".

Major companies located in the broader Route 128 area included Digital Equipment Corporation, Data General, Thermo Electron Corporation, Analog Devices, Computervision, Microsoft, GTE, Polaroid, Sun Microsystems, BEA Systems, EMC Corporation, and Raytheon."

bob2356 says

Do you guys have an actual point? Other than being a PIA.

Mama I'm trying to get them to tow the line but THEY just wont LISTEN!

Troy says

Thing is, I know plenty of people who cashed in 1997-2001 (and 2006-now at Apple & Google) and no longer have to work. There really isn't that much supply in the Valley.

Those are well know names today, but few heard about Ariba, Agile, Commerce One, Matrix One, VerticalNet, I2, Tradex, PurchasePro, and a few others, each valued into the the billions.

Certainly were not worth that much, but had people who retired early.. Many who cashed out left the region, and some stayed.

HOAs - the American Soviet.

If you really feel this is because you started asking questions and the HOA is trying to keep things under covers, why not type up a flyer with this story. Make it clear there is *no* evidence of anything wrong going on, however your just wondering out loud and feel that transparency is a good. Leave the flyer at the condo gate and swimming pool.

gbenson says

Needless to say we don't, but I can't help thinking this is the banks way of getting us to 'go away' so they can take the higher offer.

There are common tactic to get you to pay more. All you do is stick to your guns. Back when i purchased my home, we didnt see this nonsense (overbidding, higher appraisals, etc etc).

Read this...http://www.appraiserspetition.com/

corntrollio says

It is only during the boom that people became comfortable with rampant overbidding, and it was a bad thing.

Right on mark. Its become an institutionalized behavior with buyers. And some still claim today, even as prices have declined, its still common practice. There is something really wrong here.

thomas.wong1986 says

Even for employer like HP that would be way way high in compensation back in the day. Different mentality back than.

Well, note that even though it was the 70s, that was both parents' combined income. That would be more than half a million in annual income for each parent to have a 1:1 ratio today based on median price.

thomas.wong1986 says

There are common tactic to get you to pay more.

Yes, this is quite common, especially on short sale scenarios. I've had a few friends bid on short sales and get told by banks that their bids were too low. Lo and behold, several months later, the property still hasn't sold, and the bank calls them and says, "okay, okay, we'll take $X."

By that point, you'd be a fool to take them up on the offer, because the market price is likely lower and the bank is more desperate. The correct answer is "well, yes, kind bankster sir, I am still interested in buying your property, but not at that high a price."

Corn, Lol! yep that is very true.

corntrollio says

Yes, this is quite common, especially on short sale scenarios. I've had a few friends bid on short sales and get told by banks that their bids were too low. Lo and behold, several months later, the property still hasn't sold, and the bank calls them and says, "okay, okay, we'll take $X."

By that point, you'd be a fool to take them up on the offer, because the market price is likely lower and the bank is more desperate. The correct answer is "well, yes, kind bankster sir, I am still interested in buying your property, but not at that high a price."

I don't follow the logic of the price being acceptable to your friends and then only "several months later" it is clearly too "high." So if the bank had accepted their initial offer, would they be whining about how they overpaid or would they be content that they got it for what they wanted.

Using your strategy, have any of your friends purchased? Or is this a technique that guarantees they may never buy since they always want something just out of their reach?

Most US food is industrial waste, repurposed as food with the addition of heavy doses of corn syrup and chemical flavoring and scents ("Artificial Flavoring"). There was a great article about making food smell and look like the real thing, when it's mostly chemical by-products, all the way down to the "hamburger smell."

However, meat in a McD's burger is a hell of a lot better than what you get at the grocery store. McD's doesn't allow irradiated beef and buys mostly grass-fed free-range cattle from South America.

Ground Beef stateside is from feedlots from around the Country... and also China?! Yep, the meat packers have successfully stopped the government from printing "Origin" labels on ground beef for decades now. But I do know that China is one of the top 10 countries that ship ground beef to the USA.

thunderlips11 says

Most US food is industrial waste, repurposed as food with the addition of heavy doses of corn syrup and chemical flavoring and scents ("Artificial Flavoring"). There was a great article about making food smell and look like the real thing, when it's mostly chemical by-products, all the way down to the "hamburger smell."

10oz, that just shows you how REALLY expensive "REAL" food is in the States.

The real deal costs a fortune. Whole Foods is insane in price.

But I think you are/have been in Peru/Chile. You gotta be able to taste the difference, and notice the prices ain't that crazy.

state says

instead of doing your usual making-stuff-up dance why dont you tell us where you stand on the issue

That's just the point, nobody "creates jobs" that's the Silliest thing the Rest of us has ever heard.
But you can stop doing Shit that is destroying free markets and killing small business. Then those lost Jobs magically reappear.
Funny thing happens when there's more entrepreneurs other than international companies owning and selling everything.
The money gets circulated, competition grows.

All that has to be done, is the Government has to stop giving them money. But that wont happen because this government is Obama Co. the biggest multinational Corporation on this side of the Nile.

I've got to get into Politics, and run for office. The time is ripe for the pickings too.
State, I bet could make you send me all of your money, if I whispered prudy Liberal things in your ear just right.

jeffranes flagged this data by Patrick as incorrect:

As of date = 2011-06-19

Apartment number

1 bedrooms

1 bathrooms

Type is Multi

Monthly home owner association fee (HOA) is $0

Square feet is

Estimated rent is $2053

Asking price is $899000

jeffranes, please say what part of that data is incorrect.

Patrick, please say why you think that the data is correct.

corntrollio says

just_passing_through says

I've been hearing about a lot of businesses leaving CA-specifically and heading to other countries, states etc..

The data doesn't support that -- let's look at businesses in California over the last few years:
2006: 1,265,268
2007: 1,304,291
2008: 1,337,920
2009: 1,347,245

Even in the worst economy since the Great Depression, the number of businesses in California has increased, although growth has certainly slowed because of the economy.

http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=138

That's why in another thread I strongly cautioned people about overgeneralizing based on trend articles in mainstream media.

Well, that sounds like good news.. It's the kind of thing I'd want to see if I were to put down roots here and buy a place.

I wonder what types of businesses those are. Maybe lots of start ups from people who were laid off?

This is one of the articles I'd read:

http://www.statesman.com/business/california-lawmakers-say-they-need-to-follow-texas-1404748.html

Here is a snippet:

After two days in Austin looking for advice on how to stop their state's mounting job losses, a group of California lawmakers said the takeaway from their trip turns out to be fairly simple.

They said they've learned that they need to follow Texas' lead in loosening the regulatory reins on businesses — because companies won't stay in California if the state keeps weighing them down with red tape and taxes.

"We got a great message: Regulatory oversight (in California) is too much, the taxes are too high, we need to streamline government and not become a 'nanny' state like we've become," said state Assemblyman Dan Logue, a Republican from the Sacramento area who led the delegation.

"We talked to businesses who tried to make it in California and relocated (to Texas) because it's nearly impossible to do it there. We have to identify the reasons why."

The California delegation included a dozen state officials, most of them Republicans, but also Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The members said their visit was spurred by the knowledge that in the past three years, California has lost 1.2 million jobs; Texas has gained 164,000 jobs in the same period.

No I order Burgers by the bag. Then I wash my self with a rag on a stick. And do you know why? Because this America, and it is so damn beautiful the whole world want's to be like us. Well they think they can eat big macs and Kentucky fried Chicken and will end up looking like Brad Pitt, and Jenifer Aniston... But I Digress!

And there's no doubt in My mind, that you have been anywhere in the World past a book in a Liberal Library.

It's OK State the World's pretending with you.

just_passing_through says

This is one of the articles I'd read:

http://www.statesman.com/business/california-lawmakers-say-they-need-to-follow-texas-1404748.html

Let's see concrete data, not random ideologues engaging in confirmation bias. What specific things in Texas worked and why and what data shows that they worked?

California also has a more skilled workforce, a critical mass in technology, a better venture capital environment, etc. Taxes don't tell you everything. It highly depends on the business. If California lost most of its jobs in food service, and Texas gained its jobs in food service, I'm not sure California wants to emulate Texas.

thunderlips11 says

But I think you are/have been in Peru/Chile. You gotta be able to taste the difference, and notice the prices ain't that crazy.

That is what has prompted my rant.

They have a huge national grocer here called Tottus, it's like their Wal Mart. The Groceries there are the same price as back in the states. A Chicken is 16 Sol's that's about 6 or 7 American bucks, my wife said she gets 2 for $8.00 back in the States. But that's on Sale. But it was a bigger chicken and didn't looked all pumped up with Color and Homones. Even though it was a bigger bulkier bird but it had the bone structure to match.

Get this I bought a Phone it's like a Wireless Desk phone MoviStar Telephonica, it has a sim card. The service is 20 sols a month. The phone cost me 79sols first month service included. I need a phone to work and stay in touch back in the states. The phone card for some reason will go much further on this phone considered a home phone, though not tethered to a land line, than on a cell phone which would cost me a $1 a minute, instead of 15 cents.

While I was out getting the phone I stopped and picked up some milk, cereal, bread and toilet paper that cost me as much as than the phone. 79 soles, which is about what I would have paid in the states. Considering they don't sell in large packages.

The Waiter in the restaurant in Mira Florez said he makes 175 US dollars a Month. Which is less than 500 Soles a month.

Most people don't shop there, they can't afford it. Lucky for them the place that are nothing more than a few brick walls with tin roof, markets are still around. The places that has the Chickens still with the head hanging by their feet and rows upon rows of produce grown local by local farmers. It's cheaper there, but for how long.

Corporate Consumerism is here with a vengence, I see a huge difference in Television ads, media and Corporate branding even on the most clandestine rickshaw cart or fruit stand. Then when I was here ten years ago. Their meager markets will be forced out as expansion and development consumes the land that the peasants still farm.

Like I observed in Asia technology is dirt cheap, life is even cheaper. It's the COST of living most can barely afford.

Though on a more positive note, my MIL laws community now has Garbage collection, with a real Sanitation truck and all. They don't just collectively burn the garbage in a nightly ritual like the last time I was here. Also there's a discerning effort to grow grass and terraform this part of the desert. Though the foliage looks like it could use a spritzing, from a tender gardener. Every thing is covered in dust, then it's the winter rainy season. And it wont even give a proper rain just a constant mist mixed with a few droplets that randomly ping the tin roofs.

Greetings from Pachacama.

Just blocks from my MIL's house.

Oh and talk about conservation?
The Taxis here spend about 1200 USD, to convert their '92 Nissan hoopties to Natural Gas. Yup just old USA discarded junk they are taking out the icky parts and putting in the LP gas parts. The taxi driver says he drives all day long on 20 soles. or $6.00 that's about 300 miles of driving. Yep no Eggmobiles no Liberals bitching about foreign Oil they do it, because it makes economic sense and the conversion industry is mom and pops industry, not Big Brother's Company Store Incorporated.

State should really get out and see more he'd be disgusted by his behavior and ideals.

ch_tah says

Using your strategy, have any of your friends purchased? Or is this a technique that guarantees they may never buy since they always want something just out of their reach?

Yes, they have. There are always other houses, and they've never become too in love with the one house. And when I say "several months later," in some cases that was up to 9 months and the market tanked quite a bit in between (think 2008-2009 in the Bay Area where inventory was sky high when nothing was selling). Banks were still quite slow with short sales back then, and their processes have improved since.

I'm not sure why you feel the need to put all the negative connotations on it. The house wasn't "out of reach" because they could have made a full price offer. They just didn't think it was worth it based on the market.

Tenouncetrout says

That is what has prompted my rant.

They even have all the Mickey D's and Kentucky Fried Bastards.
The Animated Television actors hawk the Hamberquesas with such pride. No Gay Clown King making Ambiguously awkward moments, they are proud to consume.

If Mexico is anything like Peru, they don't need to come to America we're already there. They can deliver for the King of the Hamberquesa on their own damn roads. That is if they don't get their damn heads blown off by the Guns Obama's ATF guys are selling on the streets down there.
That's it, Obama is creating job openings in Mexico one stiff at a time.

"But you can stop doing Shit that is destroying free markets and killing small business."

Like what? Be specific.

HousingWatcher says

"But you can stop doing Shit that is destroying free markets and killing small business."

Like what? Be specific.

Really I've got to spell it out to you? Is that because you really don't know, or because you assume it's just a personal assault at Obama? Surely you've been paying attention to TALF, TARP, QE1, QE2, not even to mention the Bank Bail Out 1 and 2 the devaluation of the dollar as the open window overnight rate has set parked at less than .50% since 08. Bush's Give it to the banks take it from the poor economics, and Obama's Give it to the Banks take it from the Middle Class, destroy social services for the poor, while talking clawing back from the rich. In the mean time the rich and powerful are running nekkid through NY hotel hall ways looking for poor black immigrant wimmens to feel up.

Really I gotta do this? Go to the library and pick up a news paper starting from about August 08 and keep reading.

How did TARP hurt small businesses?

Where there's been economic carnage in American history there has been opportunity of immense portions.
America squandered opportunity for great growth, from 07 to even now and for the foreseeable future. Untold millions missed out on making fortunes or at least obtaining their little slice of the recovery. Instead the losses were collected and dolled out to an ever increasingly shrinking pool Moguls and Bankers that have wedged their position the Cogs of Democracy so much so. Most of them sit on Obama's economic advisory team.

Now unless you've got some more in depth questioning, I'm done with "what does this button do?" little quips stop either being aloof or assuming I'm just breaching gas.

"Washington (CNN) -- Sensing a shift away from their priorities, progressive Democrats and advocacy groups warned Thursday they could turn on President Barack Obama if a deficit-reduction deal reduces benefits in entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare."

Where in the hell are these Liberals on this board?

HousingWatcher says

How did TARP hurt small businesses?

By borrowing Trillions to cover banksta losses instead of running a trillion dollar line-of-credit program at 3-4% interest rates direct to Small Businesses.

The banks got bailed out, but they're sitting on the cash, not lending it like they swore up and down they would do.

I'm not so sure the state is reporting concrete data... Governments are notorious for fudging numbers.

Sometimes it's good to take a look around and make your own assumptions rather than to rely on data someone else provides.

The article I showed may just be a publicity stunt but I don't think so.. What it tells me for sure is for some reason CA politicians are looking elsewhere to see what might work better. I tend to strip basic facts from the news and discard the fluff - or at least I try to.

If you just stick to numbers all the time you might be missing the bigger (practical) picture. I see it all the time in biotech when we rarely hire academics (who also rarely hire industry persons). Analysis paralysis, no common sense, no practical skills but they pronounce words like 'schedule' as "shedule" to try to sound smart lol. [as a side note: I convinced that guy a lower port in a reaction vessel was called a 'bunghole' and he used the term all the time - relates to your name: corntrollio. Whenever he used that term you'd see the clean room guys' goggles fog up] They can't make their ideas work in the real world and end up getting shunted to some corner bench where they spent their time watering plants to get paid and kill time.

You've made some good points about CA but the question is: Where is it going? That is what I care about.

Texas' economy is much smaller. I think I heard someone compare it to one of the Asian Tigers. Maybe like Singapore? Maybe not I don't know.

What I do know is even in a relatively poor city like San Antonio my old friends all have jobs, nice houses, lots of toys, stability etc. Here my friends sell their souls for crappy houses, work harder for less after all is said and done, have less to enjoy (except maybe the weather) and have been losing their jobs.

I really wasn't trying to start a TX vs. CA contest. More just pointing out that yes, I think CA is going down hill fast and that one of those areas is with it's businesses - or so I think. Maybe the .gov website is accurate. But I still don't know what kind of jobs we grew. Hopefully they are good ones..

TARP was paid back to the govt. at a profit.

ANd what makes you sure that small businesses would use that money to hire?

HousingWatcher says

TARP was paid back to the govt. at a profit.

In the intervening time between Fall 2008 and Summer 2009, the Fed printed trillions of dollars (QE1) which the banks used to pay "back" TARP. They were in a hurry to pay it off to lift the Bonus caps, which most of the big boys did prior to the end of 2009. Much of the TARP money was supposed to fund a program called "HAMP", which was supposed to prevent foreclosures. The banks dragged their feet on giving out HAMP, so they could use the funds to pay TARP back ASAP.

If you remember, HAMP was supposed to be this amazing program. In reality, nothing much happened. Only 2% of the total aid to the banking industry in the past 3 years was in the form of TARP.

Most of the aid to the banking industry was the Fed taking tons of Freddie and Fannie loans off the banks hands. That's what made TARP repayment possible. Had there been TARP and no buying of worthless assets, it would have failed. Furthermore, the government lifted all kinds of restrictions on banking fees and managed to table a whole host of reforms.

The public costs of the Freddie/Fannie bailout, QE1 (and 2) far outweigh the pitiful profit the Gov't "Made" on TARP.

Tenouncetrout says

Surely you've been paying attention to TALF, TARP, QE1, QE2, not even to mention the Bank Bail Out 1 and 2 the devaluation of the dollar as the open window overnight rate has set parked at less than .50% since 08.

So which of those things were specifically done by Obama? How about none. I hate to burst your bubble, but Bush signed TARP. Maybe you should read that newspaper from August '08.

Maybe I should just stick to the Housing Forum. The Misc forum seems to have too many talking points and not much substance...

Honestly, the politicians have milked the "small business" BS lines for way too many years. People are far too gullible and buy into this crap, just like they buy into the "estate tax hurts small farms" nonsense. It's good marketing, but not based in reality.

This isn't about Obama OK! Fuck OBAMA!
But he's the President NOW, and these same policies are still being forged every day. They talk a lot but in the end, the rich gets GOBS and GOBS of Government money. Obama's like Lesko for the Rich guys.

Will the Tall Black man up front, please sit his ass down, so people can see what is going on behind him?

ch_tah says

Using your strategy, have any of your friends purchased?

Waiting out is the best strategy.

OK would you feel better if I called him Mr. President?

Tenouncetrout says

OK would you feel better if I called him Mr. President?

But you said it wasn't about Obama, didn't you? Is your memory slipping again. I know it's evening time at ToT's house so I guess we can overlook it.

just_passing_through says

I'm not so sure the state is reporting concrete data... Governments are notorious for fudging numbers.

EDD which keeps track of businesses in the state. I'm sure FTB also helps out with the stats. Come on.

The point is that you're using random anecdotes that are based on perceptions, which is fine, but you also have to check it against the data. The right answer is to do both, not ignore one or the other, so your story about Bunghole Guy is not really helpful here. Your perception was that California has been losing businesses left and right, and it's not true, even in this deep recession. If your Texans on the plane feel the same way, don't you think their anecdotes are suspect too?

I'm not saying Texas' economy is weak. Far from -- but it has always had its ups and downs too. Houston, for example, has never recovered from its oil-induced bubble in the early 80s. Its housing prices were still nominally lower (i.e. without even including inflation) 15 years later, as I stated here recently.

As I said, it depends on the business. If I wanted to engage in manufacturing of something not too technical, I'd probably vote Texas. If I wanted to engage in tech, I'd probably choose California. Do taxes and cost of living matter? Yes. But so do the skills of the work force, financing, critical mass, etc. There's no one simple answer.

Could California have a less dysfunctional state government? Maybe if we removed term limits and Prop 13. But Texas has some massive budget deficits too.