patrick.net

@HARM

I have committed the sin of not scrolling up. My apologies. ;)

Ray W,

Agreed. I guess my only caution is that city government uses "time commitment' as a barrier to entry. If you are going to fight this battle and have it be anything but a complete and utter waste of your time, then you have to invest in it heavily. You must get involved, go to every council meeting, join a commission, and show up to every workshop. Take council members to coffee, help allies campaign, carry little signs around on election day. You have to spend an enormous amount of time on other issues in order to get them to champion your issue.

Something about an analogy to how one makes sausage fits in here.

Ray W and tannebaum,

What's your opinion about the Pleasanton - Dublin - Danville RE market ? I am trying to keep a watch on Morgan Hill and Pleasanton like secondary markets to make a guess about the Cupertino area. (No offense intended by calling these secondary markets. To me, Software job center is Redwood City to San Jose, and is a primary market.)

Thanks.

...or you can start your own grass-roots, organized movement. Then you're trading herding cats for herding A.D.D. ferrets.

Ray,

While I agree that CA desperately needs more housing affordable for working class families, I'm doubt that more "well meaning" government coercion is necessarily the answer. As you said, "cities are not incent[iviz]ed to build owner occupiable worker housing. It doesn’t bring in the revenue like commercial space does or luxury homes do". Let's also not forget the massive credit/speculation-induced bubble we're in right now.

Ignoring the effects of the current credit/asset bubble for this discussion, we can partly thank Prop. 13 for artificially limiting supply long-term. What little housing that does get approved tends to be upscale high-end McMansions that will bring in the most amount of tax revenue per SFT for city/state government. For the most part, local government does not want to "waste" valuable real estate on housing, especially low-tax revenue worker housing --they'd rather approve more high-revenue commercial developments. We can of course also thank ingrained CA NIMBYism for most voters being adamantly opposed to any form of higher density housing (townhomes, condos, etc.), which might increase affordable supply.

I think if we rolled back the RE development laws/regulations to pre-1970s (when housing was still broadly affordable here), dropped the NIMBY mentality and let the free market work its magic, there would soon be no "affordable housing" crisis (again this is ignoring the effects of the current credit/asset bubble on prices).

Sometimes LESS (government) is MORE.

My Sanskrit is really rustic. The word "karma" has many meanings, all related.

The simplest meaning is "actions" - as in someting you do. It refers to the cause and not consequences.

The most famous hymn from Geeta literally says - "You have the right to choose your karma (actions), but not their consequences".

Then again, I doubt even the Universe is a purely closed system. Not a zero-sum game.

What if the universe is an infinite but closed system?

Is the Infinite Hotel a zero-sum game? :)

Peter P,

Entropy will get us all in the end.

Re: discussion of government control

I know most of you think Dailykos and similar left leaning organizations are full of wack jobs. (and my behavior on this board may have left the impression that such organizations are filled with wack job nymphos) But I think Kos has created a great model for putting responsible and caring people into local offices. They've gathered some knee jerkers, but a lot of the people there are willing to follow a good argument and even change their minds on occasion. They're also good ways to reach campaign donors and workers.

Ray W,

I agree with you. Most of these attempts to build affordable housing is putting a bandaid on a gushing wound. Furthermore, the few affordable houses are basically lottery winnings for people savvy or lucky enough to win.

I still think allowing more apartments and townhouses is the way to do it. Even the tiniest house in Pleasanton is now over $600,000, no way can that be affordable. With more small, market rate rental housing, poor teachers and city workers can at least live close to where they work.

Ray W,

Though you really can't blame the city government per se. Most cities prefer to have lots of tax revenue and low crime.

Also, Pleasanton does have a motorcycle, drag race problem. Those jerks race at 1 in the morning on streets lined with street facing apartments.

Randy H,

As for your story on Belmont, I think your former mayor belongs in prison or at least should be forced to pay the city every cent she made on the deal.

Regarding government:

"For what are states but large bandit bands, and what are bandit bands but small states?"
-St. Augustine of Hippo

Taxation is theft. Fannie Mae helped create the housing bubble that will ruin many sheep. Franklin Raines, ex-CEO of Fannie, cooked the books, and left a future bankruptcy.

"Taxation is theft."

Huh. Oh yeah, let's go burn down city hall and create our pure anarchist paradise now!

Not!

'intaxication'
a new word for our glossary
The new tax assessment that the FBs didn't forsee!

SQT,

I have this list. It's a list of total a$$holes. Some are in politics, sports, some are in commerce but most of those on "the list" are either former co-workers, neighbors or rude people you see everyday (commute, grocery store etc.) Mind you, I don't add to this list indiscriminately and seldom is one offense sufficient to land yourself on "the list". That said, once you've made my list, there are only two ways out. Total exposure for the AH fraud that you are and....... death. I seldom hold a grudge against people once they are already quite dead. Again though, I've made some exceptions over the years. From time to time a crooked politician or greedy businessman will die from a heart attack while being "restrained" in a sleazy hotel with "Mistress Helga" and if the police have to bring the wife down to identify the AH corpse this is sufficient humiliation to be taken off the list, albeit posthumously. They are then downgraded to J.O.

Ahem, trash talking, know nothing screw everybody mortgage brokers are on the list.

Or
the euphoria of watching the FBs get their new, reassessed tax bills!

Be careful...if you spend too much on the house you might get intaxicated!

One of the main criteria to landing on "the list" (and trust me this list is written in stone b/c they ALL eventually meet their end) is to go about business with the attitude that as long as you are willing to exploit others that you can always make a good living.

Din OR
Has anybody ever redeemed themselves and been taken off the list?

Linda in LLL,

Uh let me check, no.

Regrettably this falls under "fool me twice". Like the phone scam artists that take seniors money and then after a few months go back to the very same people and ask for money so they can go after the "guys" that screwed them in the first scam.

Linda in LLL,

I actually heard a mortgage broker's commercial today in the car that went something like this, it's so contorted I'll just have to do my best.

"That's right Sue! We went to XYZ Mortgage a year ago and they got us a really good deal. They put us in the "perfect" mortgage for us. Now that we're ready to refinance we'll definitely use XYZ Mortgage again!"

Come on! Now that we're ready to refinance? I thought this was the "perfect" mortgage? Run, RUN!

There is not just one housing bubble, but two bubbles stacked on top of each other.

Jason, have you considered participation on this site in any form other than links to the futurist?

"Astrid,

That is a perfectly ON-topic post. "

That's a start. But even better would be for you to let people know where the link is going to ahead of time. Even better than that would be to give your own thoughts about the article in addition to the link.

In any case, given your posting record, I personally think you're stealth trolling.

Ray W,

I'll agree that perhaps Pleasanton shouldn't take itself so seriously, and particularly in such an inept manner. However, anything making a lot of low frequency noise is capable of being a bother to other people nearby. Given that we're not using these machines in the middle of nowhere, other people may have a legitimate complaint about them.

However, the situation you're talking about sounds more like one of perceived class, and these latte sippers were selectively offended by the presence of a redneck vehicle. I say perceived because Harleys are damn expensive.

astrid,

There is an organization I believe called the American Society for Peace and Quite or something like that and they do a wonderful job describing all of the ruckus we have grown to accept. True, bikes with "loud pipes" in of it self is not that big a deal. However when coupled with leaf blowers, sub woofers etc. etc. it becomes substantial. All summer long we have a steady flow of "boomers on bikes" roll through town and each and every one of them manages to "get on it" as they pass through like a dog marking his territory. It's only quite until about 9:00am, then no sooner one group passes then another comes along. Frankly I could live without it.

DinOR,

I think we can count noise pollution as a sort of bad karma.

hate to rent,

The other problem is that the stocks are still priced pretty high by historic standards. This is the unfortunate consequence of a credit bubble.

It sounds like the finance types like commodities for hedging. However, these things sound entirely too complicated for my mind.

Also, none of the above is investment advice.

Can you post some pix of these supposed Kos Wacko Nymphos while you're at it?

Randy H,

LOL. I don't think Kos posters have many pictures of themselves.

However, there is much cat blogging and pie blogging. (Though sadly, no cat pie or pie cat blogging)

ps,

by They could then arbitrage the situation by “stealing” your newly found purchasing power and transferring that to other countries.,

I am referring more to a situation where a weaker dollar and US price deflation does *not* lead to increased purchasing power (the opposite of inflation), or at least not as much as it should.

This could (and probably will) occur because multi/trans-national companies are in a position where they have enough market power to keep prices high. They can shift around internal capital so that they keep producing offshore, "import" goods internal to the company, offset the cost with transfer pricing, and stick it to the US consumer. This way the company takes what should have been the US consumer's extra purchasing power and they instead transfer it out of the country to a foreign division/subsidiary/investment.

The reaction will probably be trade barriers, tariffs, and punitive taxes. Then come WTO challenges. Then come anti-WTO protests. It probably won't be pretty for anyone, if it happens. I generally don't like conspiracy or doom theories. But it is a very serious question: how do you regulate a global company that exists beyond any single sovereignty? Who regulates it? What if the company refuses to be regulated, or just acts in its own interest sometimes to the chagrin of consumers in this or that country?

hate to rent,

Real depression is a scary thing and nobody is guaranteed to survive intact, or even survive at all. As much it could potentially starve away bad and inefficient trends in this society, it just just as easily become an uncontrollable thing that throw this country into permanent decline or create WWIII.

It's a very scary balance.

Nontheless, I'm all for psych ops. I hope the current bankruptcy laws hold and gets even tougher, so the current specuvestors can't get out that way. I want a whole lot of them to think suicide is the easy way out, take it, and scare their friends and neighbors into fiscal sanity.

hate to rent,

The reason Mr. Vincent has elected to overweight in Health Care is because it is by it's very nature defensive. I may or may not get a koi pond kit from Home Depot but if I have high blood pressure what can I do? Tech? What can I say? Tech is so overdue for a rally it's ridiculous.

NIA

Hate to Rent,

In a way, we're lucky because we have relatively little assets other than what's in our heads. So even if we lose our entire IRA or 401K, we still have time to move on and rebuild. We also have very low overhead compared to people ten or twenty years older.

I'd say just don't worry too much about it either ways. If you can, learn a new language in a part of the world that you're interested in. Keep your eyes open and don't purchase any big ticket items in the future. You'll be fine. You'll be a lot better off than many of our peers who bought into home appreciation express.

hate to rent,

For everyone's sake, I hope you're right. But deep depressions are scary things, and nation states don't have the best track record of getting out quickly and relatively undamaged.

DinOR,

Okay, Pharma is a consumer essential - though if the economy gets really bad and stays there a while, the federal government might be forced to bear down on big pharma. I don't know how undervalued tech is compared to their potential so I can't comment.

If I had real money, I'd go with consumer non-durables (especially the generic brand goods producers), not a money maker, but probably a decent hedge.

Linda,

That's kind of in bad taste. However, this is a good practice note for a smart realtor. Get friendly with local estate and trust lawyers and do some mutual back scratching.

A Depression would hurt the US *very* badly. Worse than any of us reading/posting on this blog can imagine, myself included. However, it will hurt the rest of the world *much* worse. I really don't see full-on Depression in the future. But, if it does happen, I'll feel quite fortunate to be in the US during the tribulation. During a global Depression (all Depressions are global post 1800), everyone is a Keynesian the same as there are no atheists in foxholes. During a Depression, those with military power use it. And I mean *really* use it.

Randy,

Why don't you create a thread on the coming depression/recession/whatever? That's a chance for the rest of us to listen in on your discussion with frank.

astrid,

As a rule of thumb, I don't make predictions. I don't know what will happen, and don't try to pretend to. I just think I know what is more or less likely.

I'm still waiting for DinOR's sales 101 Glenn Gary Glenn Ross thread, anyway.